Use of System Dynamics Modelling for Evidence-Based Decision Making in Public Health Practice
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
3. Results
4. Discussion
Main Finding
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Intervention | Title | Baseline | Impact (%) | Number | Start | End | Target | Implementation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Increase breastfeeding at 6–8 weeks | 45.2 | 20 | NA | 2019 | 2024 | 65.2 | absolute |
2 | Reduce smoking in pregnancy | 13.9 | 6 | NA | 2019 | 2025 | 7.9 | absolute |
3 | Reduce child obesity | 16.5 | 20 | NA | 2019 | 2025 | 13.2 | proportional |
4 | Reduce fuel poverty in children | 17.4 | 20 | NA | 2019 | 2022 | 13.9 | proportional |
5 | Reduce ACE in childhood | 24 | 20 | NA | 2020 | 2030 | 19.2 | proportional |
6 | Improve recognition and treatment of hypertension | 40 | 30 | NA | 2020 | 2025 | 28 | proportional |
7 | Improve recognition and treatment of CVD risk | 50 | 30 | NA | 2020 | 2025 | 65 | proportional |
8 | Improve smoking cessation | 20 | 8 | NA | 2019 | 2024 | 28 | absolute |
9 | Increase weight management | 25 | 10 | NA | 2019 | 2024 | 27.5 | proportional |
10 | Alcohol screening | NA | Screening | 50,000 | 2019 | 2025 | NA | absolute |
11 | Alcohol treatment | NA | Treatment | 5000 | 2019 | 2030 | NA | absolute |
12 | Reduce fuel poverty for older people | 11.5 | 20 | NA | 2019 | 2024 | 9.2 | proportional |
13 | Reduce ACE at 15 years | 7.5 | 20 | NA | 2020 | 2030 | 6 | proportional |
Long-Term Condition | 2012 | No Interventions | Better Health | Difference between Better Health and No Interventions | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2037 | Percentage Difference | 2037 | Percentage Difference | |||
Asthma | 6.83% | 5.95% | −12.90% | 5.88% | −13.90% | −1.00% |
CHD | 1.92% | 1.59% | −17.23% | 1.51% | −21.48% | −4.25% |
COPD | 0.75% | 0.63% | −15.79% | 0.57% | −23.92% | −8.13% |
Diabetes | 2.76% | 3.25% | 18.02% | 3.07% | 11.35% | −6.66% |
HF | 0.02% | 0.02% | −10.74% | 0.02% | −10.96% | −0.22% |
Stroke | 0.67% | 0.59% | −12.52% | 0.49% | −27.56% | −15.04% |
Frail moderate | 1.30% | 1.53% | 17.88% | 1.55% | 19.27% | 1.39% |
Multiple | 3.89% | 3.51% | −9.61% | 3.42% | −12.01% | −2.40% |
SE MI | 0.54% | 0.46% | −14.18% | 0.44% | −18.27% | −4.09% |
Neuro | 0.18% | 0.19% | 4.82% | 0.19% | 5.17% | 0.35% |
Dementia | 0.32% | 0.34% | 8.12% | 0.34% | 7.60% | −0.52% |
LD | 0.28% | 0.26% | −7.46% | 0.26% | −7.59% | −0.13% |
Frail severe | 2.96% | 3.35% | 13.21% | 3.27% | 10.45% | −2.76% |
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George, A.; Badrinath, P.; Lacey, P.; Harwood, C.; Gray, A.; Turner, P.; Springer, D. Use of System Dynamics Modelling for Evidence-Based Decision Making in Public Health Practice. Systems 2023, 11, 247. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11050247
George A, Badrinath P, Lacey P, Harwood C, Gray A, Turner P, Springer D. Use of System Dynamics Modelling for Evidence-Based Decision Making in Public Health Practice. Systems. 2023; 11(5):247. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11050247
Chicago/Turabian StyleGeorge, Abraham, Padmanabhan Badrinath, Peter Lacey, Chris Harwood, Alex Gray, Paul Turner, and Davinia Springer. 2023. "Use of System Dynamics Modelling for Evidence-Based Decision Making in Public Health Practice" Systems 11, no. 5: 247. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11050247
APA StyleGeorge, A., Badrinath, P., Lacey, P., Harwood, C., Gray, A., Turner, P., & Springer, D. (2023). Use of System Dynamics Modelling for Evidence-Based Decision Making in Public Health Practice. Systems, 11(5), 247. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11050247