Accelerating Bayesian Estimation of Solar Cell Equivalent Circuit Parameters Using JAX-Based Sampling

Equivalent circuit models that reproduce the current–voltage characteristics of solar cells are useful not only to gain physical insight into the power loss mechanisms that take place in solar cells but also for designing systems that use renewable solar energy as a power source. As mentioned in a previous paper, Bayesian estimation of equivalent circuit parameters avoids the drawbacks of nonlinear least-squares methods, such as the possibility of evaluating estimation errors. However, it requires a long computation time because the estimated values are obtained by sampling using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. In this paper, a trial to accelerate the calculation by upgrading the Bayesian statistical package PyMC is presented. PyMC ver. 4, the next version of PyMC3 used in the previous paper, started to support the latest sampling libraries using a machine learning framework JAX, in addition to PyMC-specific methods. The acceleration effect of JAX is remarkable, achieving a calculation time of less than 1/20 times that of the case without JAX. Recommended calculation conditions were disclosed based on the results of a number of trials, and a demonstration with testable Python code on Google Colaboratory using the recommended conditions is published on GitHub.