The Impact of the Weather Forecast Model on Improving AI-Based Power Generation Predictions through BiLSTM Networks
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Related Works
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. The Dataset
- The open source Open-Meteo API was used to acquire weather forecasts, which were synchronized with power plant according to the time and geographical location. Open-Meteo serves as a publicly accessible repository of meteorological data [9], offering weather forecast records pertaining to several meteorological parameters, including wind speed, wind direction, air temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure, as well as multiple different weather models such as ICON, GEM Global, Meteo France, GSF Global, and the Best Match.
- The additional data set, synchronized with the weather forecasts, contains hourly measurements of the power generation from wind turbines located within a single wind farm located in Lithuania. The farm has six wind turbines with a capacity of 2.75 MW each.
3.2. Machine Learning Model for Power Generation Forecasting
- Number of Layers (NumLayers): This parameter was set as an integer within the range of one to five, determining the depth of the network by specifying the number of BiLSTM layers.
- Number of Hidden Units (NumHiddenUnits): The number of hidden units per layer was allowed to vary between 10 and 400, also as an integer, controlling the capacity of each layer to learn complex patterns in the data.
- Maximum Epochs (MaxEpochs): The training duration was set between 10 and 500 epochs, with the goal of finding an optimal stopping point that balances training time and model performance.
- Initial Learning Rate (InitialLearnRate): The initial learning rate was optimized over a logarithmic scale ranging from to , enabling the model to adjust its weights effectively during training.
- Mini-Batch Size (MiniBatchSize): The size of each mini-batch was varied between 8 and 228, which influences the gradient descent process and impacts training stability and speed.
- Dropout Rate (DropoutRate): This parameter, ranging from 0 to 0.6, was optimized to prevent overfitting by randomly dropping a fraction of units during training.
- Gradient Threshold (GradientThreshold): The gradient clipping threshold was varied between 1 and 10, ensuring that gradients do not explode during backpropagation, thus stabilizing the training process.
- L2 Regularization (L2Regularization): Applied to prevent overfitting, this parameter was optimized on a logarithmic scale between and to penalize large weights in the network.
- Gradient Clipping (ClipGradients): This categorical parameter determined whether gradient clipping was enabled (true) or disabled (false).
- Learning Rate Schedule (LearningRateSchedule): The learning rate schedule was set as a categorical variable, either piecewise or none, to assess whether a decaying learning rate schedule would improve convergence.
- Sequence Padding Value (SequencePaddingValue): Ranging from 0 to 1, this parameter defined the value used for padding sequences to a uniform length.
- Sequence Length (SequenceLength): This categorical parameter controlled whether sequences were padded to the longest or shortest length within each mini-batch.
3.3. The Proposed Technique
- are the predicted values;
- are the actual values;
- is the mean of the actual values.
4. Results and Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Model | RMSE | MAE | R² | NMAE |
---|---|---|---|---|
Best Match | 1.7604 | 1.258 | 0.85478 | 0.21643 |
ICON | 1.7565 | 1.2549 | 0.85543 | 0.21591 |
GEM Global | 2.0086 | 1.4447 | 0.81094 | 0.24857 |
Meteo France | 1.952 | 1.3909 | 0.82146 | 0.2393 |
Gsf Global | 2.0242 | 1.4621 | 0.80801 | 0.25155 |
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Jankauskas, M.; Serackis, A.; Paulauskas, N.; Pomarnacki, R.; Hyunh, V.K. The Impact of the Weather Forecast Model on Improving AI-Based Power Generation Predictions through BiLSTM Networks. Electronics 2024, 13, 3472. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics13173472
Jankauskas M, Serackis A, Paulauskas N, Pomarnacki R, Hyunh VK. The Impact of the Weather Forecast Model on Improving AI-Based Power Generation Predictions through BiLSTM Networks. Electronics. 2024; 13(17):3472. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics13173472
Chicago/Turabian StyleJankauskas, Mindaugas, Artūras Serackis, Nerijus Paulauskas, Raimondas Pomarnacki, and Van Khang Hyunh. 2024. "The Impact of the Weather Forecast Model on Improving AI-Based Power Generation Predictions through BiLSTM Networks" Electronics 13, no. 17: 3472. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics13173472