Evaluation of ECMWF-SEAS5 Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Predictions over South America
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. ECMWF-SEAS5 Data
2.2. NOAA CPC Data
2.3. Construction of the Seasonal Means and Domain of Study
2.4. Statistical Analysis
2.4.1. Hindcasts Seasonal Prediction Skill Score
2.4.2. Forecast Bias Correction
2.4.3. Statistical Indicators
2.5. The Seasonality Index (SI)
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Temperature
3.2. Precipitation
3.3. Seasonality Index (SI)
3.4. Statistical Indicators
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Temperature Statistical Indicators 1993–2021 | |||||
Region | r | R2 | d | RE (%) | KGE |
SEB | 0.32 | 0.10 | 0.57 | 5.58 | 0.73 |
AMZ | 0.61 * | 0.37 | 0.75 | 4.66 | 0.78 |
NEB | 0.62 * | 0.38 | 0.77 | 2.30 | 0.66 |
SB | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 9.27 | 0.80 |
AP | 0.27 | 0.07 | 0.51 | 14.66 | 0.78 |
NSA | 0.65 * | 0.42 | 0.79 | 6.00 | 0.68 |
Precipitation Statistical Indicators 1993–2021 | |||||
Region | r | R2 | d | RE (%) | KGE |
SEB | 0.25 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 21.80 | 0.88 |
AMZ | 0.23 | 0.05 | 0.38 | 24.80 | 0.80 |
NEB | 0.54 * | 0.30 | 0.67 | 24.09 | 0.87 |
SB | 0.56 * | 0.32 | 0.61 | 22.42 | 0.52 |
AP | 0.43 * | 0.19 | 0.48 | 23.23 | 0.30 |
NSA | 0.41 * | 0.17 | 0.54 | 18.63 | 0.71 |
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Ferreira, G.W.S.; Reboita, M.S.; Drumond, A. Evaluation of ECMWF-SEAS5 Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Predictions over South America. Climate 2022, 10, 128. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090128
Ferreira GWS, Reboita MS, Drumond A. Evaluation of ECMWF-SEAS5 Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Predictions over South America. Climate. 2022; 10(9):128. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090128
Chicago/Turabian StyleFerreira, Glauber W. S., Michelle S. Reboita, and Anita Drumond. 2022. "Evaluation of ECMWF-SEAS5 Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Predictions over South America" Climate 10, no. 9: 128. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090128