Climate

30 pages, 3428 KB

Open AccessReview

Tropical Fungi and LULUCF: Synergies for Climate Mitigation Through Nature-Based Culture (NbC)

by Retno Prayudyaningsih, Maman Turjaman, Margaretta Christita, Neo Endra Lelana, Ragil Setio Budi Irianto, Sarjiya Antonius, Safinah Surya Hakim, Asri Insiana Putri, Henti Hendalastuti Rachmat, Virni Budi Arifanti, Wahyu Catur Adinugroho, Said Fahmi, Rinaldi Imanuddin, Sri Suharti, Ulfah Karmila Sari, Asep Hidayat, Sona Suhartana, Tien Wahyuni, Sisva Silsigia, Tsuyoshi Kato, Ricksy Prematuri, Ahmad Faizal, Kae Miyazawa and Mitsuru Osaki Show full author list Hide full author list

Climate 2025, 13(10), 208; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13100208 - 2 Oct 2025

Abstract

Fungi in tropical ecosystems remain an understudied yet critical component of climate change mitigation, particularly within the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector. This review highlights their dual role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by regulating carbon dioxide (CO₂ [...] Read more.

Fungi in tropical ecosystems remain an understudied yet critical component of climate change mitigation, particularly within the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector. This review highlights their dual role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by regulating carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxides (N₂O) while enhancing long-term carbon sequestration. Mycorrhizal fungi are pivotal in maintaining soil integrity, facilitating nutrient cycling, and amplifying carbon storage capacity through symbiotic mechanisms. We synthesize how fungal symbiotic systems under LULUCF shape ecosystem networks and note that, in pristine ecosystems, these networks are resilient. We introduce the concept of Nature-based Culture (NbC) to describe symbiotic self-cultures sustaining ecosystem stability, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration. Case studies demonstrate how the NbC concept is applied in reforestation strategies such as AeroHydro Culture (AHC), the Integrated Mangrove Sowing System (IMSS), and the 4N approach (No Plastic, No Burning, No Chemical Fertilizer, Native Species). These approaches leverage mycorrhizal networks to improve restoration outcomes in peatlands, mangroves, and semi-arid regions while minimizing land disturbance and chemical inputs. Therefore, by bridging fungal ecology with LULUCF policy, this review advocates for a paradigm shift in forest management that integrates fungal symbioses to strengthen carbon storage, ecosystem resilience, and human well-being. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Forest Ecosystems under Climate Change)

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14 pages, 21399 KB

Open AccessArticle

Temporal Variability of Major Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in CMIP5 Climate Change Scenarios

by Víctor Manuel Chávez-Pérez, Juan A. Añel, Citlalli Almaguer-Gómez and Laura de la Torre

Climate 2025, 13(10), 207; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13100207 - 2 Oct 2025

Abstract

Major stratospheric sudden warmings are key processes in the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, exerting a direct influence on mid-latitude climate variability. This study evaluates projected changes in the frequency of these phenomena during the 2006–2100 period using six high-top general [...] Read more.

Major stratospheric sudden warmings are key processes in the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, exerting a direct influence on mid-latitude climate variability. This study evaluates projected changes in the frequency of these phenomena during the 2006–2100 period using six high-top general circulation models from the CMIP5 project under the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. The analysis combines the full future period with a moving-window approach of 27 and 48 years, compared against both the satellite-era (1979–2005) and extended historical (1958–2005) periods. This methodology reveals that model responses are highly heterogeneous, with alternating periods of significant increases and decreases in event frequency, partially modulated by internal variability. The magnitude and statistical significance of the projected changes strongly depend on the chosen historical reference period, and most models tend to reproduce displacement-type polar vortex events preferentially over split-type events. These results indicate that assessments based solely on multi-model means or long aggregated periods may mask subperiods with robust signals, although some of these may arise by chance given the 5% significance threshold. This underscores the need for temporally resolved analyses to improve the understanding of stratospheric variability and its potential impact on climate predictability. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Environment)

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21 pages, 3572 KB

Open AccessArticle

Enhancing Climate Modeling over the Upper Blue Nile Basin Using RegCM5-MOLOCH

by Eatemad Keshta, Doaa Amin, Ashraf M. ElMoustafa and Mohamed A. Gad

Climate 2025, 13(10), 206; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13100206 - 2 Oct 2025

Abstract

The Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB), which contributes about 60% to the annual Nile flow, plays a critical role in the Nile water management. However, its complex terrain and climate create significant challenges for accurate regional climate simulations, which are essential for climate [...] Read more.

The Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB), which contributes about 60% to the annual Nile flow, plays a critical role in the Nile water management. However, its complex terrain and climate create significant challenges for accurate regional climate simulations, which are essential for climate impact assessments. This study aims to address the challenges of climate simulation over the UBNB by enhancing the Regional Climate Model system (RegCM5) with its new non-hydrostatic dynamical core (MOLOCH) to simulate precipitation and temperature. The model is driven by ERA5 reanalysis for the period (2000–2009), and two scenarios are simulated using two different schemes of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL): Holtslag (Hol) and University of Washington (UW). The two scenarios, noted as (MOLOCH-Hol and MOLOCH-UW), are compared to the previously best-performing hydrostatic configuration. The MOLOCH-UW scenario showed the best precipitation performance relative to observations, with an accepted dry Bias% up to 22%, and a high annual cycle correlation >0.85. However, MOLOCH-Hol showed a very good performance only in the wet season with a wet bias of 4% and moderate correlation of ≈0.6. For temperature, MOLOCH-UW also outperformed, achieving the lowest cold/warm bias range of −2% to +3%, and high correlations of ≈0.9 through the year and the wet season. This study concluded that the MOLOCH-UW is the most reliable configuration for reproducing the climate variability over the UBNB. This developed configuration is a promising tool for the basin’s hydroclimate applications, such as dynamical downscaling of the seasonal forecasts and future climate change scenarios produced by global circulation models. Future improvements could be achieved through convective-permitting simulation at ≤4 km resolution, especially in the application of assessing the land use change impact. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Dynamics and Modelling)

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24 pages, 22609 KB

Open AccessArticle

Terrain-Based High-Resolution Microclimate Modeling for Cold-Air-Pool-Induced Frost Risk Assessment in Karst Depressions

by András Dobos, Réka Farkas and Endre Dobos

Climate 2025, 13(10), 205; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13100205 - 30 Sep 2025

Abstract

Cold-air pooling (CAP) and frost risk represent significant climate-related hazards in karstic and agricultural environments, where local topography and surface cover strongly modulate microclimatic conditions. This study focuses on the Mohos sinkhole, Hungary’s cold pole, situated on the Bükk Plateau, to investigate the [...] Read more.

Cold-air pooling (CAP) and frost risk represent significant climate-related hazards in karstic and agricultural environments, where local topography and surface cover strongly modulate microclimatic conditions. This study focuses on the Mohos sinkhole, Hungary’s cold pole, situated on the Bükk Plateau, to investigate the formation, structure, and persistence of CAPs in a Central European karst depression. High-resolution terrain-based modeling was conducted using UAV-derived digital surface models combined with multiple GIS tools (Sky-View Factor, Wind Exposition Index, Cold Air Flow, and Diurnal Anisotropic Heat). These models were validated and enriched by multi-level temperature measurements and thermal imaging under various synoptic conditions. Results reveal that temperature inversions frequently form during clear, calm nights, leading to extreme near-surface cold accumulation within the sinkhole. Inversions may persist into the day due to topographic shading and density stratification. Vegetation and basin geometry influence radiative and turbulent fluxes, shaping the spatial extent and intensity of cold-air layers. The CAP is interpreted as part of a broader interconnected multi-sinkhole system. This integrated approach offers a transferable, cost-effective framework for terrain-driven frost hazard assessment, with direct relevance to precision agriculture, mesoscale model refinement, and site-specific climate adaptation in mountainous or frost-sensitive regions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Environment)

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18 pages, 15842 KB

Open AccessSystematic Review

The Effects of Climate Change on Health: A Systematic Review from a One Health Perspective

by Indira A. Luza Eyzaguirre, Esley Lima de Sousa, Yago de Jesus Martins, Marcus E. B. Fernandes and Aldemir B. Oliveira-Filho

Climate 2025, 13(10), 204; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13100204 - 29 Sep 2025

Abstract

Climate change has been occurring due to global warming since the 1950s, causing impacts on natural and social systems, including health. This review article involves the One Health approach as a holistic approach that integrates environmental, human, and animal health, since there is [...] Read more.

Climate change has been occurring due to global warming since the 1950s, causing impacts on natural and social systems, including health. This review article involves the One Health approach as a holistic approach that integrates environmental, human, and animal health, since there is a significant gap in knowledge about the impacts of climate change on health. The questions that guide this research are as follows: What is the state of the art in studies on climate change and One Health? What are the main topics addressed in studies on climate change and One Health at a global level? The main objective is to conduct a systematic review of studies on climate change and its relationship with One Health to assess the main topics studied, involving climate change and health at a global level, and identify the gaps and challenges of these studies. The review demonstrated the exponential growth of studies that relate climate change to One Health, especially in the last three decades, with more records of studies that address infectious diseases such as arboviruses. Furthermore, studies on climate and its impact on mental health were detected, causing depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), solastalgia, and eco-anxiety, especially in vulnerable populations such as indigenous communities, women, children, family farmers, and the elderly. The One Health approach was shown to be restricted to health-related issues. Thus, theoretical and experimental studies are still needed to assess the real impact of climate change on the various axes involving human health and its relationship with anthropogenic activities, environmental health, and animal health. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impact on Human Health)

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24 pages, 4911 KB

Open AccessReview

Hail Netting in Apple Orchards: Current Knowledge, Research Gaps, and Perspectives for Digital Agriculture

by Danielle Elis Garcia Furuya, Édson Luis Bolfe, Franco da Silveira, Jayme Garcia Arnal Barbedo, Tamires Lima da Silva, Luciana Alvim Santos Romani, Letícia Ferrari Castanheiro and Luciano Gebler

Climate 2025, 13(10), 203; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13100203 - 28 Sep 2025

Abstract

Hailstorms are a major climatic threat to apple production, causing substantial economic losses in orchards worldwide. Anti-hail nets have been increasingly adopted to mitigate this risk, but the scientific literature on their effectiveness and future applications remains scattered, especially considering advances in digital [...] Read more.

Hailstorms are a major climatic threat to apple production, causing substantial economic losses in orchards worldwide. Anti-hail nets have been increasingly adopted to mitigate this risk, but the scientific literature on their effectiveness and future applications remains scattered, especially considering advances in digital agriculture. This study synthesizes current knowledge on the use of anti-hail nets in apple orchards through a systematic review and explores future perspectives involving digital technologies. A PRISMA-based review was conducted using three databases, revealing information regarding the studied countries, netting colors, and apple varieties, among others. A clear research gap was identified in integrating anti-hail nets with remote sensing and Artificial Intelligence (AI). This paper also analyzes studies from Vacaria, Brazil, a key apple-producing region and part of the Semear Digital project, highlighting local efforts to use hail netting in commercial orchards. Potential applications of AI algorithms and remote sensing are proposed for hail netting assessment, orchard monitoring, and decision-making support. These technologies can improve predictive modeling, quantify areas, and enhance precision management. Findings suggest combining traditional protective methods with technological innovations to strengthen orchard resilience in regions exposed to extreme weather. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Risk in Agriculture, Analysis, Modeling and Applications)

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28 pages, 10416 KB

Open AccessArticle

One Country, Several Droughts: Characterisation, Evolution, and Trends in Meteorological Droughts in Spain Within the Context of Climate Change

by David Espín Sánchez and Jorge Olcina Cantos

Climate 2025, 13(10), 202; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13100202 - 26 Sep 2025

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse drought variability in Spain (1950–2024) using the Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 6-, 12-, and 24-month scales. Using 43 long-record meteorological observatories (AEMET), we compute SPEI from quality-controlled (QC), homogenised series, and derive coherent drought regions via clustering [...] Read more.

In this paper, we analyse drought variability in Spain (1950–2024) using the Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 6-, 12-, and 24-month scales. Using 43 long-record meteorological observatories (AEMET), we compute SPEI from quality-controlled (QC), homogenised series, and derive coherent drought regions via clustering and assess trends in the frequency, duration, and intensity of dry episodes (SPEI ≤ −1.5), including seasonality and statistical significance (p < 0.05). Short-term behaviour (SPEI-6) has become more complex in recent decades, with the emergence of a “Catalonia” type and stronger June–October deficits across the northern interior; Mediterranean coasts show smaller or non-significant changes. Long-term behaviour (SPEI-24) is more structural, with increasing persistence and duration over the north-eastern interior and Andalusia–La Mancha, consistent with multi-year drought. Overall, short and long scales converge on rising drought severity and persistence across interior Spain, supporting multi-scale monitoring and region-specific adaptation in agriculture, water resources, and forest management. Key figures are as follows: at 6 months—frequency 0.09/0.08 per decade (Centre–León/Catalonia), duration 0.59/0.50 months per decade, intensity −0.12 to −0.10 SPEI per decade; at 24 months—frequency 0.5 per decade (Cantabrian/NE interior), duration 0.8/0.7/0.4 months per decade (Andalusia–La Mancha/NE interior/Cabo de Gata–Almería), intensity −0.06 SPEI per decade; Mediterranean changes are smaller or non-significant. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Weather, Events and Impacts)

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22 pages, 4411 KB

Open AccessArticle

Near-Surface Temperature Climate Change in the Caspian Region: A Study Using Meteorological Station Data, Reanalyses, and CMIP6 Models

by Ilya Serykh, Svetlana Krasheninnikova, Said Safarov, Elnur Safarov, Ebrahim Asadi Oskouei, Tatiana Gorbunova, Roman Gorbunov and Yashar Falamarzi

Climate 2025, 13(10), 201; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13100201 - 25 Sep 2025

Abstract

The climatic variability of near-surface air temperature (NSAT) over the Caspian region (35–60° N; 40–65° E) was analyzed in this study. The analysis was based on a comparison of data from various sources: weather stations, NOAA OISSTv2 satellite-based data, atmospheric reanalyses ECMWF ERA5, [...] Read more.

The climatic variability of near-surface air temperature (NSAT) over the Caspian region (35–60° N; 40–65° E) was analyzed in this study. The analysis was based on a comparison of data from various sources: weather stations, NOAA OISSTv2 satellite-based data, atmospheric reanalyses ECMWF ERA5, NASA MERRA-2, and NCEP/NCAR, and the outputs from 33 Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). CMIP6 models results from the historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) experiments were utilized. Over the period 1940–2023, NSAT exhibited variable changes across the Caspian region. Weather stations in the northwestern part of the region indicated NSAT increases of 0.9 ± 0.2 °C for 1985–2023. In the central-western part of the Caspian region, the increase in average NSAT between 1940–1969 and 1994–2023 was 1.4 °C with a spatial standard deviation of 0.3 °C. In the southern part of the Caspian region, the increase in average NSAT between 1986–2004 and 2005–2023 was 0.8 ± 0.1 °C. Importantly, all 33 CMIP6 models, as well as the ERA5 reanalysis, captured an average NSAT increase of approximately 1.3 ± 0.5 °C for the whole Caspian region between 1940–1969 and 1994–2023. From the ERA5 data, the increase in NSAT was more pronounced in the north (~1.6 °C) than in the central Caspian region, with the most significant warming observed in the mountainous regions of Iran (up to 3.0 °C). Under various CMIP6 SSPs scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), projections indicate an increase in average NSAT across the study region. Comparing the periods 1994–2023 and 2070–2099, the projected NSAT increases are 1.7 ± 0.7 °C, 2.8 ± 0.8 °C, 4.0 ± 0.9 °C, and 5.2 ± 1.2 °C, respectively. For the earlier period of 2024–2053 relative to 1994–2023, the projected NSAT increases are 1.2 ± 0.4 °C, 1.3 ± 0.4 °C, 1.4 ± 0.4 °C, and 1.7 ± 0.5 °C. Notably, the projected increase in NSAT is slower over the Caspian Sea compared to the surrounding land areas. Full article

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25 pages, 20264 KB

Open AccessArticle

Assessing Urban Resilience Through Physically Based Hydrodynamic Modeling Under Future Development and Climate Scenarios: A Case Study of Northern Rangsit Area, Thailand

by Detchphol Chitwatkulsiri, Kim Neil Irvine, Lloyd Hock Chye Chua, Lihoun Teang, Ratchaphon Charoenpanuchart, Fa Likitswat and Alisa Sahavacharin

Climate 2025, 13(10), 200; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13100200 - 24 Sep 2025

Abstract

Urban flooding represents a growing concern on a global scale, particularly in regions characterized by rapid urbanization and increased climate variability. This study concentrates on the Rangsit area in Pathum Thani Province, Thailand, an urbanizing peri-urban area north of Bangkok and within the [...] Read more.

Urban flooding represents a growing concern on a global scale, particularly in regions characterized by rapid urbanization and increased climate variability. This study concentrates on the Rangsit area in Pathum Thani Province, Thailand, an urbanizing peri-urban area north of Bangkok and within the Chao Phraya River Basin where transitions in land use and the intensification of rainfall induced by climate change are elevating flood risks. A physically based hydrodynamic model was developed utilizing PCSWMM to assess current and future flood scenarios that considered future build-out plans and climate change scenarios. The model underwent calibration and validation using a continuous modeling approach that conservatively focused on wet year conditions, based on available rainfall and water level data. In assessing future scenarios, we considered land use projections based on regional development plans and climate projections downscaled under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways. Results indicate that both urban expansion and intensifying rainfall are likely to increase flood magnitudes, durations, and impacted areas, although in this rapidly developing peri-urban area, land use change was the most important driver. The findings suggest that a physically based modeling approach could support a smart-control framework that could effectively inform evidence-based urban planning and infrastructure investments. These insights are of paramount importance for flood-prone regions in Thailand and Southeast Asia, where dynamic modeling tools must underpin governance, climate adaptation, and risk communication. Furthermore, given the greater impact of future build-out on flood risk, as compared to climate change, there is an opportunity to effectively and proactively improve flood resilience through the implementation of integrated Nature-based Solution and hard engineering approaches, in combination with effective flood management policy. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling for the Influences of Climate and Landscape Processes on Hydrology)

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19 pages, 1442 KB

Open AccessArticle

Benova and Cenova Models in the Homogenization of Climatic Time Series

by Peter Domonkos

Climate 2025, 13(10), 199; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13100199 - 23 Sep 2025

Abstract

For the correct evaluation of climate trends and climate variability, it is important to remove non-climatic biases from the observed data. Such biases, referred to as inhomogeneities, occur for station relocations or changes in the instrumentation or instrument installation, among other reasons. Most [...] Read more.

For the correct evaluation of climate trends and climate variability, it is important to remove non-climatic biases from the observed data. Such biases, referred to as inhomogeneities, occur for station relocations or changes in the instrumentation or instrument installation, among other reasons. Most inhomogeneities are related to a sudden change (break) in the technical conditions of the climate observations. In long time series (>30 years), usually multiple breaks occur, and their joint impact on the long-term trends and variability is more important than their individual evaluation. Benova is the optimal method for the joint calculation of correction terms for removing inhomogeneity biases. Cenova is a modified, imperfect version of Benova, which, however, can also be used in discontinuous time series. In the homogenization of section means, the use of Benova should be preferred, while in homogenizing probability distribution, only Cenova can be applied. This study presents the Benova and Cenova methods, discusses their main properties and compares their efficiencies using the benchmark dataset of the Spanish MULTITEST project (2015–2017), which is the largest existing dataset of this kind so far. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the annual means and the mean absolute trend bias were calculated for the Benova and Cenova results. When the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high, the errors in the Cenova results are higher, from 14% to 24%, while when the SNR is low, or concerted inhomogeneities in several time series occur, the advantage of Benova over Cenova might disappear. Full article

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23 pages, 5981 KB

Open AccessArticle

Projected 21st Century Increased Water Stress in the Athabasca River Basin: The Center of Canada’s Oil Sands Industry

by Marc-Olivier Brault, Jeannine-Marie St-Jacques, Yuliya Andreichuk, Sunil Gurrapu, Alexandre V. Pace and David Sauchyn

Climate 2025, 13(9), 198; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090198 - 21 Sep 2025

Abstract

The Athabasca River Basin (ARB) is the location of the Canadian oil sands industry and 70.8% of global estimated bitumen deposits. The Athabasca River is the water source for highly water-intensive bitumen processing. Our objective is to project ARB temperature, precipitation, total runoff, [...] Read more.

The Athabasca River Basin (ARB) is the location of the Canadian oil sands industry and 70.8% of global estimated bitumen deposits. The Athabasca River is the water source for highly water-intensive bitumen processing. Our objective is to project ARB temperature, precipitation, total runoff, climate moisture index (CMI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for 2011–2100 using the superior modelling skill of seven regional climate models (RCMs) from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). These projections show an average 6 °C annual temperature increase for 2071–2100 under RCP 8.5 relative to 1971–2000. Resulting increases in evapotranspiration may be partially offset by an average 0.3 mm/day annual precipitation increase. The projected precipitation increases are in the winter, spring, and autumn, with declines in summer. CORDEX RCMs project a slight increase (0.04 mm/day) in annual averaged runoff, with a shift to an earlier springtime melt pulse. However, these are countered by projected declines in summer and early autumn runoff. There will be significant decreases in annual and summertime CMI and annual SPEI. We conclude that there will be increasingly stressed ARB water availability, particularly in summer, doubtless resulting in repercussions on ARB industrial activities with their extensive water allocations and withdrawals. Full article

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24 pages, 7803 KB

Open AccessArticle

High-Resolution Projections of Bioclimatic Variables in Türkiye: Emerging Patterns and Temporal Shifts

by Yurdanur Ünal, Ayşegül Ceren Moral, Cemre Yürük Sonuç, Ongun Şahin and Emre Salkım

Climate 2025, 13(9), 197; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090197 - 19 Sep 2025

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal assessment of climatic and bioclimatic conditions across Türkiye for both a historical reference period (1995–2014) and future projections (2020–2099) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) scenarios using the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM to downscale [...] Read more.

This study presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal assessment of climatic and bioclimatic conditions across Türkiye for both a historical reference period (1995–2014) and future projections (2020–2099) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) scenarios using the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM to downscale large-scale signals to a regional scale at high resolution (0.11). A comparison of the model with ERA5-Land reanalysis data revealed annual biases of +1.41 °C (warm) and −0.28 mm/day (dry), emphasizing the importance of bias correction in regional climate assessments. Bias-corrected future projections indicate a marked warming trend and significant decline in precipitation, especially after the 2060s, with pronounced spatial variability across regions. The most intense warming period of the century is the 2060–2079 period, with an anticipated increase of 0.109 °C/year under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, while, under the SSP2-4.5, it is the 2040–2059 period with an increase of 0.068 °C/year. Bioclimatic variables further illustrate shifts in temperature extremes, seasonal variability, and precipitation patterns. Coastal regions are expected to experience a delay in the onset of wet seasons of 1–2 months, while high-altitude zones show earlier shifts of up to 4 months. Four distinct clusters were identified by using k-means clustering method, each with unique temporal and spatial evolution under both SSP scenarios. Clusters 1 and 2, which predominantly represent continental and interior regions, exhibit a strong association with earlier precipitation onset. Notably, arid and semi-arid conditions expand northward, replacing temperate zones in Central Anatolia. Overall, findings suggest that Türkiye is undergoing a substantial climatic transition toward hotter and drier conditions, regardless of the emission scenario. This study has critical implications for ecological resilience, agricultural sustainability, and water resource management, and offers valuable information for targeted climate adaptation strategies and land-use planning in vulnerable regions of Türkiye. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Environment)

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29 pages, 1306 KB

Open AccessArticle

Public Perceptions of Climate Change Trends in the Entre Douro e Minho Region (Northern Portugal): A Comprehensive Survey Analysis

by Leonel J. R. Nunes

Climate 2025, 13(9), 196; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090196 - 18 Sep 2025

Abstract

Background: Understanding the perceptions of climate change among local populations is crucial for informing public awareness and supporting the development of evidence-based policies. The Entre Douro e Minho region in Northern Portugal faces significant climate challenges, yet comprehensive studies on local population perceptions [...] Read more.

Background: Understanding the perceptions of climate change among local populations is crucial for informing public awareness and supporting the development of evidence-based policies. The Entre Douro e Minho region in Northern Portugal faces significant climate challenges, yet comprehensive studies on local population perceptions remain limited. Objective: This study assessed public perceptions of climate change evolution among residents of the Entre Douro e Minho region, examining demographic and spatial influences on climate awareness and attribution beliefs. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted between October 2024 and March 2025, targeting residents of the Porto, Braga, and Viana do Castelo districts. Statistical analysis employed descriptive statistics, Spearman correlations, and non-parametric tests with psychometrically validated instruments. Results: Among 1749 valid responses (82.0% response rate), residents demonstrated high levels of climate change awareness (mean = 3.87/5.0) and a large number attributed this to anthropogenic causes (mean = 3.82/5.0). Education emerged as the strongest demographic predictor of climate attribution beliefs (ρ = 0.279, p < 0.001, small to medium effect), while age showed a negative association (ρ = −0.255, p < 0.001). Spatial analysis revealed significant district-level variations, with Viana do Castelo consistently showing higher levels of climate awareness across all measures. Wildfires (77.4%) and heatwaves (70.6%) were the most prevalent perceptions of extreme weather, while reforestation and forest management (77.3%) emerged as the most preferred adaptation strategy. Conclusions: This study reveals high levels of climate change awareness, characterized by significant demographic and spatial heterogeneity. Educational attainment and generational differences create distinct perception profiles requiring targeted communication strategies. These findings provide an evidence base for developing age-differentiated climate education programs and geographically tailored adaptation policies in Northern Portugal and similar European contexts. Full article

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17 pages, 897 KB

Open AccessArticle

Integrated Water–Energy–Food System for Rural Climate Adaptation: The Green Village Model in Oman

by Sultan Al-Maskari and Bachar Ibrahim

Climate 2025, 13(9), 195; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090195 - 17 Sep 2025

Abstract

Rural communities in arid regions face linked challenges of water scarcity, energy insecurity, and climate stress. This study develops a pilot-scale “Green Village” model for Dar Al-Sawda, Oman, integrating agrivoltaic solar generation with natural wastewater treatment and agroforestry to enhance resilience. We used [...] Read more.

Rural communities in arid regions face linked challenges of water scarcity, energy insecurity, and climate stress. This study develops a pilot-scale “Green Village” model for Dar Al-Sawda, Oman, integrating agrivoltaic solar generation with natural wastewater treatment and agroforestry to enhance resilience. We used a mixed-methods design: semi-structured interviews with residents and experts informed the system requirements, and PVsyst simulations and field monitoring quantified expected performance. The integrated design comprises two 15 m³ ReedBox^® natural wastewater treatment units and a 75 kWp agrivoltaic array above olive orchards. The treatment system processes 26 m³ day⁻¹ for irrigation reuse, while the solar plant is estimated to generate 147,700 kWh per year. Performance ratio (PR) results are reported explicitly: monthly PR simulated for 2024 ranged from 0.70 to 0.81 (mean 0.77), while the annual PR estimated by PVsyst under a clean-panel case was 0.85 (85%). The modeled energy supply covers the treatment units and essential community loads, reducing diesel use and reliance on trucked water. For approximately 120 residents, the Green Village concept improves water security, clean energy access, and local food production, helping to counter rural out-migration. The results demonstrate the feasibility and advantages of an integrated water–energy–food approach and offer a scalable blueprint for sustainable development in Oman and comparable arid settings. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Adaptation and Mitigation)

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24 pages, 2603 KB

Open AccessArticle

Culture Mediates Climate Opinion Change: A System Dynamics Model of Risk Perception, Polarization, and Policy Effectiveness

by Yoon Ah Shin, Sara M. Constantino, Louis J. Gross, Ann Kinzig, Katherine Lacasse and Brian Beckage

Climate 2025, 13(9), 194; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090194 - 17 Sep 2025

Abstract

Despite the growing impacts of climate change worldwide, achieving consensus on climate action remains a challenge partly because of heterogeneity in perceptions of climate risks within and across countries. Lack of consensus has hindered global collective action. We use a system dynamics approach [...] Read more.

Despite the growing impacts of climate change worldwide, achieving consensus on climate action remains a challenge partly because of heterogeneity in perceptions of climate risks within and across countries. Lack of consensus has hindered global collective action. We use a system dynamics approach to examine how interactions among cultural, socio-political, psychological, and institutional factors shape public support or opposition for climate mitigation policy. We investigate the conditions under which the dominant public opinion about climate policy can shift within a 20-year time frame. We observed opinion shifts in 20% of simulations, primarily in individualistic cultural contexts with high perceived climate risk. Changing the dominant opinion was especially difficult to achieve in collectivistic cultures, as we observed no shifts in dominant opinion within the parameter ranges examined. Our study underscores the importance of understanding how cultural context mediates the approaches needed to effectively mobilize collective climate action. Full article

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28 pages, 7243 KB

Open AccessArticle

Teleconnections Between the Pacific and Indian Ocean SSTs and the Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Arabian Sea

by Ali B. Almahri, Hosny M. Hasanean and Abdulhaleem H. Labban

Climate 2025, 13(9), 193; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090193 - 17 Sep 2025

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Arabian Sea pose significant threats to coastal populations and result in substantial economic losses, yet their variability in response to major climate modes remains insufficiently understood. This study examines the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the [...] Read more.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Arabian Sea pose significant threats to coastal populations and result in substantial economic losses, yet their variability in response to major climate modes remains insufficiently understood. This study examines the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) with TC activity over the Arabian Sea from 1982 to 2021. Utilizing the India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s best-track data, reanalysis datasets, and composite analysis, we find that ENSO and IOD phases affect TC activity differently across seasons. The pre-monsoon season shows a limited association between TC activity and both ENSO and IOD, with minimal variation in frequency, intensity, and energy metrics. However, during the post-monsoon season, El Niño enhances TC intensity, resulting in a higher frequency of intense storms, leading to increased accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and power dissipation index (PDI) in a statistically significant way. In contrast, La Niña favors the development of weaker TC systems and an increased frequency of depressions. While negative IOD (nIOD) phases tend to suppress TC formation, positive IOD (pIOD) phases are associated with increased TC activity, characterized by longer durations and higher ACE and PDI (statistically significant). Genesis sites shift with ENSO: El Niño favors genesis in the eastern Arabian Sea, causing westward or northeastward tracks, while La Niña shifts genesis toward the central-western basin, promoting northwestward movement. Composite analysis indicates that higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), reduced vertical wind shear (VWS), increased mid-tropospheric humidity, and lower sea level pressure (SLP) during El Niño and pIOD phases create favorable conditions for TC intensification. In contrast, La Niña and nIOD phases are marked by drier mid-level atmospheres and less favorable SST patterns. The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP), particularly its westernmost edge in the southeastern Arabian Sea, provides a favorable thermodynamic environment for genesis and exhibits a moderate positive correlation with TC activity. Nevertheless, its influence on interannual variability over the basin is less significant than that of dominant large-scale climate patterns like ENSO and IOD. These findings highlight the critical role of SST-related teleconnections (ENSO, IOD, and IPWP) in regulating Arabian Sea TC activity, offering valuable insights for seasonal forecasting and risk mitigation in vulnerable areas. Full article

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17 pages, 1127 KB

Open AccessSystematic Review

Systematic Review of Multidimensional Assessment of Coastal Infrastructure Resilience to Climate-Induced Flooding: Integrating Structural Vulnerability, System Capacity, and Organizational Preparedness

by Nokulunga Xolile Mashwama and Mbulelo Phesa

Climate 2025, 13(9), 192; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090192 - 16 Sep 2025

Abstract

This study investigates the multifaceted factors influencing the success of government-funded construction projects and addresses the challenges posed by climate-induced flooding, proposing integrated solutions encompassing structural vulnerability, system capacity, and organizational preparedness. By examining the challenges faced by coastal infrastructure, such as aging [...] Read more.

This study investigates the multifaceted factors influencing the success of government-funded construction projects and addresses the challenges posed by climate-induced flooding, proposing integrated solutions encompassing structural vulnerability, system capacity, and organizational preparedness. By examining the challenges faced by coastal infrastructure, such as aging infrastructure, sea-level rise, and extreme weather events, this research seeks to identify strategies that enhance resilience and minimize the impact of flooding on coastal communities. The study presents a systematic review of 80 scholarly articles integrating quantitative and qualitative findings. Utilizing the PRISMA guidelines, the review highlights structural analysis, hydraulic modeling, and organizational surveys, to assess the resilience of coastal infrastructure systems. The results of this study offer actionable insights for policymakers, infrastructure managers, and coastal communities, facilitating informed decision-making and promoting climate-resilient development. Coastal regions around the world are increasingly vulnerable to climate-induced hazards such as sea level rise, storm surges, and intense flooding events. Among the most at-risk assets are transport infrastructure and buildings, which serve as the backbone of urban and regional functionality. This research paper presents a multidimensional assessment framework that integrates structural vulnerability, system capacity, and organizational preparedness to evaluate the resilience of coastal infrastructure. Drawing upon principles of resilience such as robustness, redundancy, safe-to-fail design, and change-readiness, the study critically reviews and synthesizes existing literature, identifies gaps in current assessment models, and proposes a comprehensive methodology for resilience evaluation. By focusing on both transport systems and building infrastructure, the research aims to inform adaptive strategies and policy interventions that enhance infrastructure performance and continuity under future climate stressors. Full article

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13 pages, 2131 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Impacts of Changes in Near-Term Climate Forcers on East Asia’s Climate

by Hyun Min Sung, Jae-Hee Lee, Jisun Kim, Hyomee Lee, Pil-Hun Chang and Kyung-On Boo

Climate 2025, 13(9), 191; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090191 - 16 Sep 2025

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) and ozone precursor emissions on particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations in East Asia (EA). Our analysis used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) dataset [...] Read more.

This study investigates the impacts of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) and ozone precursor emissions on particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations in East Asia (EA). Our analysis used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) dataset to assess the potential changes in air quality under varying emission scenarios for the present day (1995–2014) and near-term future (2015–2054). Present-day PM_2.5 concentrations in EA averaged 14.3 ± 2.6 μg/m³, with significant regional variation: East China (32.43 μg/m³), Korea (13.71 μg/m³), and Japan (7.51 μg/m³). A reduction in historical NTCF emissions would lower PM_2.5 concentrations by approximately 43% across EA, whereas reducing O₃ precursors would yield an approximately 10% decrease. Under the SSP370 scenario, PM_2.5 concentrations are projected to increase by 16% in the near-term future (2045–2054). However, robust NTCF mitigation could reduce PM_2.5 levels by approximately 40%, primarily by decreasing sulfate and organic aerosols, which are the dominant contributors of historical PM_2.5 variability. Despite substantial projected improvements, achieving the World Health Organization’s stringent air quality guidelines remains challenging, highlighting the necessity for enhanced emissions control targeting key pollutant sources. These insights are crucial to East Asian policymakers aiming to implement effective air quality management strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Perspectives in Air Pollution, Climate, and Public Health)

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13 pages, 274 KB

Open AccessReview

A Typology of Climate Obstruction Discourses: Phenomenon, Action, Source

by Marie-Félixe Fortin, Annabelle Olivier, Sarah-Jane Vincent, Naomi Laflamme, Rebecca Soland and Alexandre Gajevic Sayegh

Climate 2025, 13(9), 190; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090190 - 16 Sep 2025

Abstract

Climate inaction has traditionally been attributed to skepticism and denial. However, strategies obstructing climate action have become more nuanced, shifting from direct denial to complex forms of delay. This study presents a typology of discursive strategies of climate obstruction that expands the existing [...] Read more.

Climate inaction has traditionally been attributed to skepticism and denial. However, strategies obstructing climate action have become more nuanced, shifting from direct denial to complex forms of delay. This study presents a typology of discursive strategies of climate obstruction that expands the existing literature while comprehensively classifying tactics that hinder climate action. We argue that climate obstruction better encapsulates the broad strategies used to delay climate action than climate skepticism. Our typology comprises three categories, each distinguished by the target of obstruction. First, Phenomenon Obstruction (Target 1) includes discourses to obstruct the fact that climate change is occurring and human-caused as well as the severity of its impacts. Second, Climate Action Obstruction (Target 2) encompasses discourses targeting solutions to tackle climate change, such as promoting unproven solutions or greenwashing, shifting responsibility, casting doubt on climate policy productivity, looking for policy perfectness, and appealing to cultural and partisan identity to oppose climate action. Last, Source Credibility Obstruction (Target 3) undermines the credibility of climate actors or climate research, pertaining to its method and data as opposed to questioning the existence of the phenomenon itself (Target 1), and casting such actors as conspirators. Based on a review of 138 scholarly publications, this framework equips scholars to analyze how these strategies manifest across political discourse, news media, and social media. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Policy, Governance, and Social Equity)

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