Effects of Drought on Livestock Production, Market Dynamics, and Pastoralists’ Adaptation Strategies in Semi-Arid Ethiopia

Abstract

Extreme climate events are increasing in severity and frequency and affecting the livelihood of pastoralists. Understanding these impacts is crucial for developing effective management strategies. Thus, this study examines the effects of drought on livestock production and market dynamics in semi-arid Ethiopia and explores the adaptation strategies employed by Borana pastoralists. Both the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to calculate indicators of drought severity between 1993 and 2022. Surveys were also conducted in 244 selected households. In addition, focus group discussions and field observations were conducted to investigate the adaptation practices of Borana pastoralists to drought. A line graph was used to illustrate the relationship between the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and livestock market prices. The study found extreme drought in 1985, 2000, and 2011, with the most severe to moderate dryness occurring in the Arero, Elwaya, Dubuluk, Guchi, and Yabelo areas. The study found that severe droughts are increasing, affecting pastoralists’ livelihoods. The recurring drought led to a shortage of feed and water, which resulted in the starvation and death of livestock and jeopardized the livelihoods of pastoralists. In addition, the decline in milk production and falling market prices are said to have had a negative impact. Diversification of livelihood sources, mobility of livestock to seek out forage and water resources, and diversification of herd composition to take advantage of varying drought tolerance have been the usual long-term adaptation strategies of Borana pastoralists. Given the multiple negative impacts of climate change, development interventions in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of Ethiopia should focus on proactive measures to reduce the impacts of climate change on livestock production.

1. Introduction

Climate change is one of the major global problems of the 21st century. Evidence indicates that climate change is real and occurring at an unprecedented rate [1]. Particularly, the role of quasi-linearly increasing human-induced climate change in severely affecting humans, environmental, and socio-economic sectors is unequivocal and well documented [1]. Among what makes climate change impacts on drylands more alarming is the large exposure of humans and their livelihoods [2]. Drylands cover about 46% of the global land area, with 90% in developing countries, home to over 2 billion people [3]. Africa’s arid and semi-arid rangelands, covering about two-thirds of the continent, face severe climate change impacts [2,3]. Recurrent droughts and change in rainfall patterns are the major characteristics of the effects of climate change in the regions [4,5,6,7]. Around 386 million pastoralists in Africa depend on natural resources and face severe drought impacts [8,9,10,11]. Climate projections suggest rising climate risks in sub-Saharan pastoral areas due to limited adaptation capacity and less resilient production systems [4,5,6,7].

Ethiopia is currently experiencing the adverse impacts of climate change in all sectors of the economy, including livestock production. A temperature increase of 0.25 °C per decade has been recorded since the 1990s in the country [12]. A climate model for Ethiopia showed that the temperature is expected to increase by up to 1.8 °C and 2.8 °C by 2050 and 2080, respectively, compared to the mean temperature between 1961 and 1990 [12]. The frequency and severity of droughts are expected to increase due to future climate change [13]. Future climate change may further increase drought frequency and severity in already affected pastoral areas [14,15,16,17]. Climate change-induced droughts, erratic rainfall, and increasing temperatures have severely impacted pastoralist communities globally, particularly in Africa’s drylands. In Ethiopia, these climatic shifts have intensified the vulnerability of pastoralists, who rely on natural resources for their livelihoods. Understanding these interconnected challenges is crucial for developing effective adaptation strategies that enhance livelihoods, promote sustainable resource management, and mitigate climate-induced conflicts in Ethiopia’s pastoral regions.

Livestock production in Ethiopia faces significant challenges due to climate change and variability [18,19]. For pastoral communities, livestock serves as a primary source of food, income, and social identity [20]. However, recurrent droughts have led to water and pasture shortages, increased thermal stress, and declining livestock productivity. These impacts have severely degraded rangeland ecosystems, caused mass livestock deaths, and reduced market value, threatening pastoral livelihoods [20,21,22,23,24,25]. Similarly, pastoral communities in Southern Ethiopia are increasingly confronted with numerous climate and weather change-induced challenges, particularly in the Borana zone [18,19,20,21,22]. Climate risks, such as rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall patterns, including more frequent flooding and drought events, pose significant threats to the livelihoods of these pastoral communities [4,23,24,25]. The Borana zone, known for erratic rainfall and its devastating impacts [26,27], has significantly higher rainfall variability (20–35%) than the Greater Horn of Africa (15–25%) [28]. High rainfall variability, coupled with increasing temperatures in the region, makes the Borana zone among the hotspot areas of climate risks in the GHoA. Recently, the community has experienced one of the most extended and human-induced drought events. Since late 2020, the Borana area and Eastern Africa have faced below-average rainfall during the short rains (Oct–Dec) of 2020, 2021, and 2022 and the long rains (Mar–May) of 2021 and 2022, resulting in five consecutive failed seasons [29]. Anthropogenic climate change influenced both the decreasing trend of long rains towards less rainfall and doubling of increased rainfall in the short rains. Furthermore, human-induced climate change has increased the frequency (100 times more likely) and intensity of the recent extended drought event and would not occur in the absence of anthropogenic climate change [23] During the same time period, as per the comprehensive report assessment carried out by various organizations within the zone, the inadequacy of livestock feed and water has led to the demise of more than 3.3 million livestock, and over half of the total population of 1.7 million individuals needed food assistance [29]. As a result of the increased livestock mortality, the workload for women and girls was amplified [29].

The livelihood systems of the community are sensitive to the negative effects of drought, as they rely on natural resources like water and pastures to survive. For generations, they have been adapting to climatic change. However, pastoralists have recently become less adaptable to recurrent drought as a result of its increasing frequency and intensity. Given the projections for increasing drought impacts in the area and other social pressures, it is important to document the characteristics of drought and various adaptations to scale up effective drought practices and discourage maladaptation. Some studies in the study area have been conducted on the adaptability of different livestock species [2,4,10,13,14,15], pastoral households’ response to climate variability [6,15,17,21,30], and vulnerabilities of pastoralists to climate variability [6,16,17,21,31]. Despite those efforts in the past, no study has demonstrated the relationship between drought characteristics and livestock market value. Thus, a major novelty of this study is that it will not only assess pastoralists’ adaptation and coping strategies but also explore the casual relationship between the temporal characteristics of drought with livestock market dynamics. Specifically, the objectives of current study are to (i) characterize drought, (ii) assess the impact of climate change on livestock, (iii) determine associations between drought incidence and livestock market dynamics, and (iv) determine pastoralists’ adaptation and coping strategies in the Borana zone, Southern Ethiopia. The results of this study contribute to filling existing knowledge gaps by providing insights into how pastoralists adapt to climate-induced shocks, informing policies and interventions that enhance sustainable livelihoods and food security in vulnerable dryland regions. Moreover, it can also assist governments in disaster risk management and policymakers in the development of appropriate climate and gender responsive policies, adaptation, and mitigation strategies to build a drought-resilient pastoral society.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area

The study was carried out in the Borana zone, which is located in the southern part of Ethiopia (Figure 1). The area was selected because it is one of the most arid and semi-arid areas of Ethiopia, and therefore, pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in this area are the most vulnerable to climatic change. Therefore, their struggles with the drought and their adaptation strategies could provide insights into what to anticipate in response to drought.

The zone borders the Somali Region in the east, the Southern Ethiopia Region in the west, the Guji Zone of Oromia region in the north, and Kenya in the south. It is situated between the latitudes of 3°36′ and 6°38′ N and longitudes of 36°43′ and 39°30′ E (Figure 1). The elevation ranges between 1000 and 1700 m above sea level (m.a.s.l) [32]. The zone is characterized by an arid and semi-arid climate. The mean annual temperatures range between 19 and 24 °C with little seasonal variation [33]. The mean annual rainfall varies from 300 to 600 mm. The rainfall in the zone is characterized by a bi-modal rainfall pattern with a high level of variability of 21–68% among years [30]. About 60% of rainfall occurs during the long rainy season, gana (March to May), and 27% of rainfall occurs during the short rainy season, hagaya (September to November), with high temporal and spatial fluctuations [2,34].

Borana rangeland is dominated by plain rangeland and covers an area of about 50,000 km² inhabited by about one million people [30]. Tropical savannah, which consists of open grasslands, perennial herbaceous vegetation, and woody vegetation, is the dominant vegetation type in the rangeland [35]. The major land use of the study area is a pastoral livestock production system. Livestock production is the main economic activity and dominated by traditional production systems characterized by continuous grazing in communally shared land. Cattle and goats are the main livestock species reared, but camel and sheep are also widely owned by pastoralists [4].

2.2. Research Design and Data Collection

2.2.1. Study Design

The study makes use of part of the data collected for the Livestock Water Source Monitoring and Risk Management (LWSMRM) project. Before the survey, a reconnaissance visit of all the sites to be studied was carried out. A cross-sectional multi-stage sampling with zone as the highest level followed by district (n = 6) and sub-district (n = 6) as the lowest sampling levels was used to select respondents. Borana zone, along with five specific districts, namely, Dhas, Dire, Dillo, Guchi, Miyo, and Yabello, were selected using systematic and purposive sampling techniques as a major drought prone area (Figure 2). At the fourth stage, a total of 244 households were selected from the six waterpoint (Haro Dingam, Haro Beke, Haro Liben Haro Kitela, Haro Dimtu, and Haro Jiloo-dhokkicha sub-districts (Figure 2) using the sample size determination formula of Yamane (1967) that is suitably used at a 95% confidence interval for a known and finite population. Lastly, the 244 respondents were selected from the entire households and proportionally allocated to each sub-district using the simple random sampling method. The study area was selected due to its unique geographical characteristics, including provision of water during drought periods, high rainfall variability, frequent drought occurrences, and a pastoralist livelihood system highly dependent on livestock. These factors make it a critical case for examining climate impacts and adaptation strategies.

2.2.2. Drought Indices

Daily precipitation data for the period 1993–2022 were obtained from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Institute (ENMI). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to analyze the severity of drought. These indices were chosen to provide a comprehensive assessment of drought severity by capturing both precipitation deficits (SPI) and the influence of temperature-driven evapotranspiration (SPEI), thereby offering a more accurate representation of drought conditions.

2.2.3. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

The SPI was used to calculate drought on a 12-month timescale using data from January 1993 to December 2022. A 12-month timescale was chosen to capture long-term drought trends and their cumulative effects on water availability, pasture conditions, and livestock productivity. This timeframe aligns with the seasonal characteristics of the study area, where pastoral livelihoods depend on both short and long rainy seasons. The SPI has previously been used in Australia (Abawi et al. 2003) and Mexico (Giddings et al. 2003) and examined the severity of drought in part of the arid and semi-arid parts of Kenya (Huho and Mugalavai 2010). The SPI is calculated as follows (Equation (1)):

$$\mathrm{SPI}={\displaystyle \frac{x_{ij-}{x}_{im}}{\sigma }}$$

(1)

where σ is the standard deviation, x_ij is the mean annual precipitation in the i^th synoptic station, and x_im is the long-term seasonal mean precipitation.

In our analysis, negative values of the SPI indicate dry periods and positive values indicate wet periods. Droughts were categorized as mild if the SPI value was between 0 and −0.99; moderate with a value between −1.0 and −1.49; severe if the value was between −1.5 and −1.99; and extreme if the value was between −2.00 and below. The normal state (no drought) is when the SPI value is zero (0.00).

2.2.4. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)

SPEI, a multi-scalar index, considers temperature and PET effects, recommending it for arid and semi-arid regions, based on non-exceedance probability differences between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010). The study estimates potential evapotranspiration (PET) using the Thornthwaite method (Thornthwaite, 1948), which considers temperature and precipitation effects. It estimates climatic water balance by subtracting cumulative PET from precipitation at a specific timescale, and provides a difference between precipitation and PET for a month (i) using Equation (2)

Di = Pi − PET

(2)

The calculated D values are aggregated at different timescales and are given by the following:

$$D_n^k={\sum }_{i-0}^{k-1}{P}_{n-1}-{\left(PET\right)}_{n-1}$$

(3)

where k (months) is the timescale of the aggregation and n is the specific calculation month.

The SPEI is obtained by normalizing the water balance into the loglogistic probability distribution (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2017).

2.2.5. Household Data Collection and Analysis

A combination of a qualitative and quantitative research approach was used to determine the adaptation strategies of Borana pastoralists and agro-pastoralists to drought. Quantitative data were collected through interviews with pastoralists and agro-pastoralists using a semi-structured questionnaire. The data were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire consisting of open-ended, multiple-choice, and paired-choice questions. A pilot test was conducted with local researchers prior to the main study. The pilot test helped refine the final questionnaire by identifying unclear or ambiguous questions, ensuring logical flow, and improving clarity based on respondent feedback. The final questions were revised based on the researchers’ feedback and analysis of informants’ responses to the questions. The key variables measured in the study include socio-economic indicators (e.g., gender, education level, age, household size, agricultural activities, non-farm income, access to extension services, land ownership, and livestock holdings), climate-related factors (e.g., access to weather information and exposure to drought), and coping and adaptation strategies (e.g., livestock diversification, mobility, supplementary feeding, and reliance on social networks). In addition, data were collected on the impact of the drought and the adaptation strategies of households. To avoid misunderstandings, the interviews and discussions were conducted in the local language (Afran Oromo), which the respondents could fully understand. The household surveys were complemented by six focus group discussions (FGDs) (one in each sub-district). Participants in the FGDs were mainly older people who could remember drought events. Therefore, FGD participants were purposively selected who had lived in the location for at least 40 years, including older women, and who were willing to fully engage in a group discussion. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. The questionnaire survey and FGDs were conducted from March 2023 to February 2024. Data translation and interpretation were carefully managed to ensure consistency and accuracy. Interviews and focus group discussions were conducted in Afran Oromo, the local language, to facilitate clear communication and avoid misunderstandings. The collected responses were then translated into English by trained local researchers fluent in both languages. To maintain accuracy, the translations were cross-checked by multiple researchers, and any ambiguities were resolved through consensus. Additionally, pilot testing helped refine question wording to minimize misinterpretation during data collection. The chi-square test in R statistical software was used to compare coping and adaptation strategies adopted by male- and female-headed pastoral households in Borana.

2.2.6. Livestock Market Dynamics

Price and demographic information on livestock sold during 2013–2022 was collected from the Borana Zone Finance and Economic Cooperation office. A line graph was used to illustrate the relationship between the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and livestock market prices, providing a visual representation of how drought severity influences market dynamics. The regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between livestock market dynamics and drought variability, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an independent variable and livestock prices as the dependent variable.

3. Results and Discussion

This section presents and discusses the temporal severity of drought, its impact on pastoral and agro-pastoral systems, especially the production and market value of livestock, and adaptations used by pastoralists. The research also explores the limitations of adaptation strategies currently used by pastoralists and agro-pastoralists and their implications for policy interventions and development aimed at improving pastoral coping strategies.

3.1. Drought Characteristics and Trends

In this study, we computed the 12-month SPI and SPEI to examine dry conditions in the study area from 1982 to 2022. The results of the SPI and SPEI analysis revealed that 19 and 23 drought years occurred in the zone during the period from 1982 to 2022, respectively. Based on the SPI results, extreme drought incidences were observed in 1985, 2000, and 2011 (Figure 3) in the study area; however, an extreme drought condition was observed only in 2011 in the SPEI. Two severe (in 1984 and 2001) and five moderate (in 1992, 1994, 2010, 2015, and 2017) droughts occurred in Borana between 1982 and 2022 according to the SPI; however, during the same period, the SPEI results showed that the area underwent two severe (in 2000 and 2010) and five moderate (1984, 1985, 2001, 2016, and 2017) drought conditions in the SPI (Figure 4). Similarly, other studies showed that the highest drought years in the Borana zone were 1985, 2000/2001, 2009/2010, 2011, and 2015–2017 [16,21,28,36]. This variation is likely due to the fact that the SPI relies solely on precipitation, whereas the SPEI incorporates both precipitation and evapotranspiration, making it more sensitive to temperature variations and overall water balance. The differences suggest that temperature-driven evapotranspiration played a significant role in modulating drought severity, particularly in recent decades.

The SPI analysis shows that the frequency of extreme drought events has increased over the past two decades, with several drought events occurring every two years since 2014 (Figure 3). Previous studies also indicate that drought frequency has increased, especially in the last three decades [16,21,25,36,37,38,39,40]. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the intensity of drought events in the most recent decade is higher than drought events of earlier decades in the analysis, and this finding is well in agreement with previous studies [15,25,36]. Thus, drought is certain to recur in Borana areas with increasing magnitude and frequency. Recent studies also supported that the area has experienced a drought event every 1–2 years for the last two decades [28], whereas a previous drought happened once during the Gada period, i.e., every 8 years [41]. The main cause governing rainfall variability in Ethiopia in general and the study area in particular is El Niño–Southern Oscillation events associated with below-average rainfall [13]. Study [42] showed that the recurrent drought in the last 30 years was due to El Niño-induced low rainfall events. Others also observed the occurrence of drought in the northern highlands of Ethiopia due to high rainfall variability. This study also found that the incidence of drought was due to the erratic behavior and unreliable distribution of rainfall. The probability of drought in the region is expected to increase due to changes in precipitation patterns and global climate change.

3.2. Spatial Characteristics of Dryness Events

Figure 4 shows the spatial distribution of dry month occurrence over the Borana zone. The number of dry months shown in the 12-month timescales ranges from 58 to 156 and 60 to 158 in the SPI-12 and SPEI-12, respectively, throughout the study period over the study area (Figure 5). The spatial distribution of dry months was not uniform across the study area as given by the 12-month SPI and SPEI. Both the SPI and SPEI show the most severe to moderate dryness occurred in the Arero, Elwaya, Dubuluk, Guchi, and Yabelo areas (Figure 4). The frequency decreased towards the south and southwestern part of the zone, towards Teltele, Dilo, Wachile, and Moyale. Areas experiencing more frequent and severe dryness, such as Arero, Elwaya, Dubuluk, Guchi, and Yabelo, face heightened water scarcity, reduced pasture availability, and increased pressure on livestock, leading to higher migration rates, market instability, and livelihood vulnerability. In contrast, regions with fewer dry months, such as Teltele, Dilo, Wachile, and Moyale, may offer relatively better grazing conditions, attracting seasonal migrations but also creating competition over resources.

3.3. Pastoralists’ Observations of Climate Change

Over the past 30 years, 96.3% (235 out of 244) of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists have noticed the change in rainfall and temperature, aligning with the SPI and SPEI analyses. Most livestock producers (84.4%; 206 out of 244) have reported that they are facing unpredictable rainfall patterns. This was also highlighted by focus group participants as stated: “In the past, we received sufficient amount of rainfall. During Hagaya (short rainy period), the rain typically starts in September followed by a long dry spell, known as Bona, until February. During the long rainy season, we experienced a good rainfall period that continued uninterrupted for three months, from March to May. But in recent times, the rainy season has been shortened to just a few days or weeks, with a long dry season to follow”.

The SPI results identified extreme droughts in 1985, 2000, and 2011, while the SPEI detected an extreme drought only in 2011, suggesting that temperature-driven evaporative demand plays a crucial role in drought severity. This aligns with 93% (228 out of 244) of respondents stating that temperatures have risen significantly, exacerbating water shortages and pasture degradation. As the FGD participants stated: “We noticed that the temperature has risen significantly in recent period. Only during the Gana (long rainy season), especially in April and early May, the weather can be cool; otherwise, the whole year is very hot, especially from December to February”.

A vast majority of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists (98%, or 239 out of 244) were able to remember and describe the years when they faced serious shortages of water and pasture.

Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists reported experiencing shrinkage of suitable grazing land and loss of vegetation cover, particularly palatable grasses and herbaceous, in recent times that they link to reduced rainfall and recurrent drought periods experienced. This finding is supported by some of the responses below.

The findings of this study concur with previous studies [13,15,25,37,43,44] that drew attention to the grave and erratic nature of droughts in pastoral areas. Moreover, the perception of respondents coincides with the meteorological record discussed above. Thus, specific context that considers the nature of climate variability is needed to enhance the climate change adaptation capacity of pastoralists.

3.4. Impacts of Drought on Livestock Production

Out of 244 pastoralists and agro-pastoralists, nearly all (98.8%) said they have suffered from the adverse effects of drought-induced water and pasture scarcity. Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists have reported that they have recently experienced a reduction in suitable pastures and a loss of vegetation, especially palatable grasses, and plants, associated with reduced rainfall and frequent droughts. The responses below support this observation. “Yes, climate change has been observed. When we were children, we had plenty of grass and other delicious vegetation, as well as enough pasture and water supply, but today there is nothing left for pasture. Everything is scarce and we move here and there in search of pastures and water. There is nothing there. Due to frequent droughts, grass and tasty plant species cannot grow as before. Instead, we are being invaded by unpleasant and invasive species”.

During the focus group discussions, discussants also emphasized that water sources have either dried up or they have seen decreased water supply in the past few decades. Pastoralists rely mainly on runoff as their primary water source. They stated that the drying up of waterpoints due to frequent droughts was becoming a major problem, leading to a shortage of water. Participants, particularly women, indicated their concerns about having to travel over 20 km to access water from waterpoints, even during regular dry seasons of the year. There were incidents where boys and girls dropped out from school due to mobility for searching for water and alternative income sources during the past prolonged drought. Thus, water scarcity is turning into a significant disaster risk for Borana pastoralists because of the drying up of many waterpoints related to frequent droughts.

Additionally, the participants pointed out that soil erosion is becoming a growing concern. According to their report, the land is now stripped of vegetation, leading to an increase in soil erosion and unrestricted water flow during rainfall. Soil erosion caused the water source to become filled with silt. This observation shows that interventions are needed to address the issue in the study area. In addition, they discuss current small-scale irrigation crop farming, focusing on cereals like maize, sorghum, and wheat. The explanation is as follows: “There is a notable amount of soil erosion that we have observed. During rainfall, we observe a substantial volume of water flowing and causing a significant buildup of silt, ultimately leading to a decrease in the waterpoint’s depth”.

The deaths of a large number of livestock were reported by all 244 respondents. Furthermore, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists (93.4; 228/244) experienced a decrease in livestock sale prices, resulting in significant economic losses. Additionally, they faced outbreaks of livestock diseases (n = 167) such as East Coast fever and dengue fever, as well as challenges associated with long-distance livestock mobility (80.7; 198/244) in search of sufficient pasture and water.

During the focus group discussions, participants expressed concerns about the increasing severity of drought leading to degradation of rangeland and the replacement of palatable forages with non-palatable or invasive plants. This scenario may lead to a decrease in high-quality grazing plants on the range and a reduction in available forage. Additionally, they voiced their concerns about the degradation of dry-season grazing areas caused by frequent droughts and unpredictable rainfall patterns. Pastoralists were forced to move their livestock near waterpoints along perennial rivers out of the zone, resulting in the overgrazing of available forage resources. As a result, overgrazing causes the invasion of low-value forage plants or unpalatable species near water sources as well as degradation in watersheds.

The drought thus occurs repeatedly and has a major impact on the growth of pastures and the availability of water, which continues to affect the livelihood of the shepherds. The scarcity of water and pasture is already becoming a test of endurance in the region, which has led to the death of livestock and thus livelihood insecurity. In general, the respondents’ observations in this study corroborate other findings [13,15,19,20,21,22,25,40,45,46,47] that the increasing frequency and intensity of drought events are having a negative impact on pastoralists’ livelihoods and ecosystems. For example, the 2015/16 drought was catastrophic, killing millions of livestock in pastoral areas in Southern Ethiopia, particularly in Guji, Borana, Gari, and some Somali districts [17,25,36,40]. Due to the absence of rain in the region’s main rainy season, the area was affected by a severe drought in 2016, drying up water sources and causing pasture shortages. Recently (2021/22), the area has been experiencing one of the most severe droughts caused by climate change, after five consecutive rainy seasons have failed since the end of 2020, leading to the death of more than 3.3 million livestock and disrupting pastoralists’ livelihood. This has been one of the worst droughts in the last 40 years. Pastoralists have lost most of their livestock because they are under stress from the effects of the drought and the shortage of pasture and water. This really calls for better and more strategic adaptation measures.

3.5. Impacts of Drought on Livestock Revenue

The relationship between livestock price and drought severity analysis from 2013 to 2022 showed that livestock were sold at higher prices during the rainy season compared to the drought period (Figure 6). Mean cattle prices in the non-drought years of 2013 and 2014 were ETB 10,754 and ETB 11,342, respectively. In 2015 and 2016, the drought caused cattle prices to drop to ETB 8154 and ETB 7456, respectively. In the same vein, the average goat prices during non-drought conditions in 2013 and 2014 were recorded at ETB 2084 and ETB 2361, respectively. During the 2015 and 2026 drought events, prices dropped to ETB 1874 and 1543, respectively. In 2019, the average price of a camel was ETB 21,743, while in 2020, it increased to ETB 27,456 during the non-drought years. In 2021, prices dropped to ETB 24,056 and then fell further to ETB 25,031 in 2022 due to drought. Similarly, the average prices for sheep in 2019 and 2020 (non-drought period) were ETB 2754 and ETB 2985, respectively. Prices dropped to ETB 1842 and 1537 during the droughts of 2021 and 2022, respectively. The results of this study revealed that drought had a significant negative impact on livestock value (r = −2.68, p < 0.01). Our finding is consistent with other studies [40,41,48,49,50] as they also found that livestock revenue declines during drought events. This is because of decreases in rangeland productivity and the reproductive capacity of livestock and increases in livestock morbidity rates.

Focus group participants confirmed that during the drought, pastoralists had to sell their livestock at a lower price due to the poor condition of their livestock and oversupply in the market. They also pointed out that as a result of the drought, pastoralists were forced to sell more of their livestock than under normal conditions as they had to buy more feed due to the scarcity of feed. In recent years, the frequency and severity of droughts have increased, with a drought occurring every two or three years. As a result, pastoralists have been unable to recover from the effects of the last drought, after which livestock prices continued to fall. The FGD results have also shown that recent rains started late and ended early and/or rained with high intensity for a few days or weeks and then disappeared again, which is insufficient for pasture growth and thus livestock production. Therefore, reduced income from livestock during recurrent droughts may jeopardize the adaptive capacity of pastoralism in the future.

3.6. Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Household Adaptation Strategies

The survey showed that Borana pastoral and agro-pastoral households have used several adaptation strategies to enhance their resilience, including livestock diversification like the adoption of drought-resistant livestock like camels and goats, practicing mobility, buying hay as supplementary feed, destocking, herd splitting, and diversifying their sources of income through activities like charcoal making (Figure 7). Households also implemented adaptation strategies such as integrating crop production with livestock production. The chi-square test results (χ² = 3.87, p = 0.21) indicated no statistically significant difference between male- and female-headed pastoral households, suggesting that both groups adopt similar strategies.

3.7. Livestock Diversification (Adoption of Drought-Resistant Livestock Species)

The pastoral and agro-pastoral households made changes to their herd composition and diversified their herds as a key adaptation in response to recurrent drought, accounting for 93.4% (228 out of 244) of households. According to recent studies [17,18,19,41], raising different types of livestock can be advantageous in terms of both financial and environmental factors. Furthermore, aside from the economic advantages, the diversity of livestock species enables pastoral households to utilize a broader array of ecological niches or resources [41]. This includes the use of both grazing and browsing animals. During the FGDs, it was revealed that in the past two decades, livestock species have been diversified due to changes in climate patterns and other influences. In the past, the Borana pastoral system relied solely on cattle. Recently, drought-resistant livestock such as camel and goat have been adopted. Other studies also found that there has been an increase in interest in managing camels and goats due to recurrent drought and environmental and socio-economic pressures [13,15,51]. The participants in the FGDs indicated that the reason for diversifying herds with goats and camels was their ability to tolerate drought effects and survive on browsing trees and bushes during feed shortages. It was noted that keeping a large number of cattle was difficult due to the loss of palatable forages caused by frequent and prolonged droughts. In recent periods, due to recurrent drought and bush encroachment, the majority of them adopted camel rearing in their herd as a more resilient species. Moreover, the FGD results pointed out that the economy of pastoral households has seen an improvement through the adoption of camel and goat rearing as camel market prices are higher than cattle, suggesting that keeping camels could provide added benefits to household livelihoods. Even though keeping camels and goats in Borana has been embraced as a strategic move, and those who have adopted camel and goat production are better equipped to handle changes, they are still not completely immune to risks caused by environmental change and climate variability and change. According to one of the FGD discussants, camels and goats are now experiencing frequent droughts and increased dryness. Thus, we pointed out that the frequent droughts have had a significant shift to have more camel and goat in their herd in response to recurrent drought.

Households’ inadequate capital is the primary constraint for using different herd diversification. Therefore, inadequate capital of households or poor economic status were frequently mentioned by respondents as significant constraints to many desired adaptation strategies in this study area (

Table 1. Summarizing the adaptation strategies used by Borana pastoral and agro-pastoral households along with their advantages and disadvantages.

Adaptation Strategy	Positive	Negative
Livestock Diversification (Adoption of Drought-Resistant Species)	Increases resilience to drought Allows utilization of different ecological niches Higher market value for camels Improves household income	Requires initial capital investment to shift into camel-based livestock production Not completely immune to climate variability Requires new knowledge and skills for camel and goat rearing
Livestock Mobility	Ensures access to forage and water Aligns with traditional grazing systems Reduces pressure on specific grazing areas	Limited by declining rangeland productivity Restricted by land tenure policies and conflicts Requires accurate and timely information on resources
Integrating Livestock with Crop Production	Diversify income sources Provides food security for households Crop residues can serve as fodder	Rain-fed agriculture is unreliable in arid areas Can disrupt traditional grazing systems Risk of land degradation and competition for resources
Destocking	Helps households secure income before complete livestock loss Prevents overgrazing and rangeland depletion	Low market prices for livestock during drought Households struggle to restock due to inflation
Herd Splitting	Ensures survival of at least part of the herd Enables optimized use of different grazing areas Protects vulnerable livestock (e.g., pregnant animals)	Requires additional labor Can separate families and increase labor burden on certain members
Other Livelihood Strategies (Charcoal/Fuelwood Sales, Migration for Employment)	Provides alternative income sources Supports household needs during droughts Reduces dependence on livestock alone	Deforestation from charcoal production harms the environment Limited and often unsustainable employment opportunities Migration may cause social and economic disruptions

). In other studies, Refs. [52,53,54,55] reported that pastoralists have limited resources to enhance herd diversification. As a result, they are more vulnerable to climate risks.

3.7.1. Livestock Mobility

Pastoralists relied on herd mobility as a crucial strategy during the dry season due to the scarcity of pasture and water in the area being studied [17,18,44,47,51]. According to the FGDs, short-lived forage availability was very unpredictable, changing frequently in time and space. Based on their experience, they were able to identify when and where forages would be available. Therefore, the pastoralists must relocate their livestock promptly and to the appropriate location to explore and utilize the available short-lived forages and water resources before they dried. This demonstrated that mobility is one of the main strategies used by pastoralists in response to recurrent drought, which causes the scarcity of pasture and water. As per the participants’ identification, the Borana region is governed by their traditional institutions, which have divided the entire land into five grazing systems known as ‘Dheeda’ based on their ecological conditions. These grazing systems are further categorized into wet-season and dry-season grazing lands. The wet- and dry-season grazing areas were designated to facilitate the unfettered movement of herds. The FGD result clearly shows that pastoralists have continued to rely on traditional mobility practices as an adaptive strategy in the face of growing vulnerabilities caused by drought. However, livestock mobility practice has been challenged by low rangeland productivity caused by recurrent drought (Table 1). Thus, timely information on the availability of pasture and water is important for informed decision making for seasonal livestock mobility.

3.7.2. Integrating Livestock with Crop Production

To counter the negative effects of climate variability and climate change, pastoral households have already started to cultivate crops. As livestock numbers and productivity have decreased over time, FGD participants said that the pastoral system has changed to an agro-pastoral production system due to frequent droughts in recent years. The results showed that about 31.3% of the pastoralists integrated livestock production with small-scale crop farming using rain-fed agriculture and traditional irrigation methods, mainly maize, sorghum, and wheat. According to the FGDs, households combined livestock farming with crop farming because they had difficulty in sustaining their livelihood from livestock alone in the face of climate variability and change. When asked when they started farming, most of the respondents stated that it was less than 10 years ago. Panelists at the FGDs also indicated that participation in crop farming has helped pastoralist households to meet their food needs and diversify their livelihoods. In addition, pastoralist households have benefited from crop farming as the crop residues can also be used as fodder for their animals. The findings are also consistent with studies [13,15,17,19,28,47,51,56] that have shown that the integration of crop and livestock farming increases the ability of pastoralists to diversify their sources of income and thus improve their adaptive capacity.

However, the integration of livestock and crop farming in pastoral areas brought with it new challenges (Table 1). As the FGD participants clearly showed, it is difficult to practice rain-fed agriculture in arid and semi-arid areas with seasonal rainfall. On the other hand, households that depend on crop production are more at risk of losing their livelihoods if there is no rain, as farming in semi-arid areas is more susceptible to a lack of rainfall. In line with this finding, other studies [52,54,55] have pointed out that arable farming in drylands is risky agriculture due to unreliable rainfall. The introduction of crop farming as a strategy in pastoral areas is often accompanied by a disruption of the well-established traditional seasonal grazing system and mobility. This has a negative impact on livestock production in the main grazing areas, especially in dry-season grazing areas [51,56]. In line with other findings [25,37,44,47,52,53,55], it has been reported that cropping can cause irreversible damage to rangelands.

3.7.3. Destocking

About 76.6% (n = 132) of the respondents were choosing to destock their livestock as a way to cope with the severe effects of drought. The FGD discussants also noted that destocking is seen as a last option for ensuring the survival of livestock during drought. The FGD participants also mentioned that while pastoralists prefer this option over suffering complete loss, they are concerned about their ability to buy livestock after a drought due to inflation; mainly, there is a significant imbalance in the prices of livestock before and after a drought. Households were using the money from selling their livestock to purchase food, livestock feed, and to cover other social costs, rather than just reducing their livestock size. Other studies [18,43,47,53,54] also showed that destocking is a strategy that involves reducing the number of animals in a herd, often as a way to cope with severe drought in many pastoral areas of Africa. However, low livestock prices offered during drought are mentioned as another constraint on desired coping strategies, primarily for livestock off-take [52,55]. This was because the feasibility of the livestock off-take strategy depends on the situation of the livestock price in the market. Focus group discussion participants indicate that livestock prices tend to be low during drought periods because the livestock is already weak, and the supply is greater than the demand in the market.

3.7.4. Herd Splitting

Splitting the herd was also a coping strategy for 70.9% (n = 173) of the pastoralists in response to the drought. The results of the FGDs also revealed that herds are divided into groups and sent to different locations during the drought period when access and the accessibility of pasture and water are scarce. Respondents also indicated that the division of herds depends on the availability of labor, the type and size of the herd, the health status of the livestock, and the availability of fodder in the region. A similar finding [10,18,46] showed that herd splitting consists of dividing livestock into small herds and distributing them to different close relatives or clan members so that they can graze separately. Participants in the FGDs also explained that less productive but strong herds are sent to remote areas and supervised by adults in dividing the herd. Pregnant females, more productive dairy cows, and young animals, on the other hand, are left closer to the settlement and cared for by young girls and boys. Adaptation to the recurring drought therefore requires more labor (Table 1). The availability of surplus labor allows pastoral households to use mobility as an adaptation option by using different grazing areas simultaneously.

3.7.5. Other Livelihood Strategies

Initially, a few family members, primarily adult men, were split up and relocated to a place with water and grazing land along with a group of herds. In the second scenario, young members of the household were sent to the city and town to work every day in order to provide for their families. In the area, 23.4% of respondents (57 out of 244) indicated that they resorted to selling charcoal and fuelwood as a way to cope with the drought. Participants reported that the income from sales of charcoal and fuelwood helps to cover household expenses and meet the needs of the family during drought events. Based on feedback from the focus group discussions, charcoal producers acknowledge that their activities have led to deforestation and the loss of valuable tree species used for livestock browsing. Despite this, the practice persists as pastoralists, who have lost their livestock to drought, turn to selling charcoal and fuelwood as a means of coping with the effects of the drought, rather than to substitute for livestock production. Several studies [4,10,18,21,38,40] also affirm that households highly favored fuelwood and charcoal trading for income during drought seasons. However, the study revealed that overexploitation of tree resources through fuelwood collection and charcoal production are among the major causes of rangeland degradation (Table 1).

4. Conclusions

This study analyzed drought characteristics and their impacts on pastoral communities in Borana from 1982 to 2022 using the SPI and SPEI. The findings indicate that the region has experienced frequent droughts, with notable extreme drought years occurring in 1985, 2000, and 2011 (SPI) and 2011 (SPEI). Pastoralists reported significant changes in climate patterns, including unpredictable rainfall and rising temperatures. These climatic shifts have led to severe pasture and water shortages, negatively affecting livestock production and household incomes. Market analysis showed that drought periods significantly reduced cattle prices due to deteriorating livestock conditions and oversupply. In response, pastoral and agro-pastoral households have adopted various adaptation strategies such as livestock diversification, mobility, fodder management, destocking, income diversification, and integrated farming.

In the Borana context, recurrent droughts, shrinking grazing lands, and loss of vegetation cover are among the most critical challenges affecting pastoral livelihoods. The impact of drought on pastoralist communities is often livestock mortality and loss of rangeland ecosystem services, which negatively affect livelihoods, income, and the provision of other socio-cultural goods and services. Pastoralist households in Ethiopia have taken measures to cope with and or adapt to the negative impacts of drought on their livelihoods. However, most of the drought management strategies used by Borana pastoralists are reactive and may destroy livelihoods that need to be restored by making existing resources more resilient. The existing options for long-term drought management strategies are constrained by various social, economic, and political changes as well as rangeland ecological conditions. The lack of information services on climate and rangeland resources, along with limited market access, poses challenges to sustainable pastoral production and informed decision making. As droughts become more frequent and severe, recovery periods shorten, weakening both pastoral ecosystems and livelihoods. Proactive measures are crucial to addressing these challenges. Providing early warning information, enhancing climate information services, and promoting climate-smart rangeland management can help pastoralists adapt their production systems before climate extremes cause devastating impacts.

The government and non-government organizations can play a crucial role in helping pastoralists and agro-pastoralists to cope with the consequences of climate change by providing support to implement climate-smart agricultural solutions. One key approach is investing in climate-smart technologies, such as climate-smart water and rangeland management, to mitigate the impact of droughts. Additionally, strengthening and promoting early warning systems and climate information services, such as the User-Centered Integrated Rangeland and Water Monitoring and Early Warning System (https://et.waterpointsmonitoring.net/, accessed on 3 March 2025), can provide accessible, actionable, and real-time pasture, water, and climate information to pastoralists, decision-makers, and other stakeholders to make informed decisions. Policies should also promote livelihood diversification by supporting alternative income-generating activities, such as sustainable feed production, value-added livestock products, and climate-smart agriculture practices. Furthermore, improving access to financial services, including microcredit and index-based livestock insurance, can help pastoralists recover from climate-induced losses. Strengthening local governance and institutions to facilitate resource-sharing agreements, especially during drought periods, is also essential to prevent conflicts over scarce resources. Lastly, investing in research and extension services to promote climate-smart rangeland management and adaptive grazing practices can enhance long-term resilience. By implementing these strategies, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists can build resilience to climate change, ensuring sustainable livelihoods and improved adaptive capacity for future generations. The findings of this study hold significant relevance for other countries facing similar climate challenges, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas of Africa. Suggestions and recommendations demonstrated in this study can guide interventions and policymakers in integrating pastoralist adaptation strategies into national development plans, ultimately enhancing resilience and sustainability in similar contexts worldwide. Future research should focus on developing integrated climate adaptation strategies that enhance rangeland restoration, improve water resource management, and strengthen traditional pastoral institutions.