1. Introduction
Climate change (CC) is continuous and it is an issue of great concern for scientists around the world [
1]. Increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions [
2] have been attributed to rising temperatures resulting in increased variability of precipitation and extreme climatic events such as droughts, floods, and shifting of seasons [
3]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that if high GHG emissions continue, average temperatures will rise by more than 2 °C in the South Asian region and will increase by 3 to 6 °C by the mid to end of the 21st century [
4].
According to the IPCC [
2], developing countries are more likely to be affected by climate variability [
5] and CC affects developing countries disproportionately when compared with developed countries [
6]. The agricultural sector in developing countries is a significant source of income to a vulnerable population segment. The agricultural sector is particularly negatively affected through disasters brought about by CC, including droughts, floods, irregular precipitation, and salinity intrusion [
7,
8]. These changes are expected to continue to affect vulnerable countries with uneven rainfall, water scarcity and extreme temperatures [
9].
Bangladesh is a developing country [
10] that experiences extreme weather variability attributed to CC [
11]. Its’ geographical location, flat deltaic topography, very low elevation, and high population density are some of the characteristics that make it one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to CC [
12,
13]. The country is situated in the delta of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) rivers. It is exposed to a range of rivers and two-thirds of the land mass is less than five meters above the sea level [
14]. In the north-west regions of Bangladesh, the elevation is 30 m above sea level [
15].
CC affects the yield of crops, livestock, fisheries, hydrologic systems, and other components of the agricultural sector [
8]. Agriculture is a pillar of the Bangladeshi economy [
8,
16], contributing a notable share (14.22 percent) to the national economy [
17]. Agriculture in Bangladesh typically depends on the amount and distribution of precipitation that comes from the south-west monsoon winds [
18], thus seasonal characteristics and climate variability influence the agriculture activities in Bangladesh [
19]. The characteristics of Bangladesh have made the country prone to multiple CC impacts, such as floods and flash floods (almost 80 percent of the country is prone to flooding), cyclones and storm surges (in the south and south-eastern parts of the country), salinity intrusion (the whole coastal belt along the Bay of Bengal), extreme temperatures, and droughts (especially in the north-west and to some extent the south-west parts of the country) [
15,
19]. The agricultural sector of Bangladesh faces many challenges and this is exacerbated by climate extremes [
20].
Drought is a critical problem for Bangladeshi agriculture, especially in the north-west region of Bangladesh [
16]. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) [
21] reported that CC is one of the drivers behind the frequency of droughts in Bangladesh. The north-west region of the country is vulnerable to drought due to high rainfall variability [
13,
22] and consequently, farming communities regularly exploit groundwater resources [
23,
24]. Climate variability and scarcity of surface water, together with rainfall variability and high temperatures, expose the region to frequent occurrences of drought [
25]. Moreover, a diverse landscape, semi-arid climate and decreased rainfall contribute to droughts [
23]. Drought adversely affects the yield of different agricultural crops such as HYV B
oro rice, A
us rice, wheat, sugarcane, and potatoes grown in the R
abi (mid-November to mid-March) and
Pre-Kharif season (mid-March to mid-May) [
12,
25]. In addition, drought has long-term impacts on the environment, socio-economy and human health [
23].
The north-west regions have been experiencing insufficient rainfall, resulting in a low groundwater table and, consequently, water shortages for agricultural and other uses [
23]. Severe droughts occurred in 1951, 1961, 1975, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1989, 1994, 1995, and 2000 in Bangladesh, and about 53 percent of the total population have been negatively affected [
26]. The most severe outbreak of drought occurred in 1994 and had accumulated effects on the vulnerable population.
The farming communities in the north-west region experience frequent droughts affecting their livelihoods through reduced crop harvests, and livestock and fisheries production, resulting in food and nutrition insecurity [
20]. Reduced and uneven rainfall lead to the drying up of surface water bodies such as ponds, canals,
beels, and rivers. Extensive groundwater exploitation has damaged the irrigation system and caused severe threats to crop production and other health-related illnesses [
23].
Figure 1 shows the drought-prone areas in Bangladesh.
Adaptation and coping strategies for CC and related events have been a main concern over the past few decades, within the global discussions of the impacts of CC [
28,
29]. In Bangladesh, several coping strategies from local communities have been diffused to other communities throughout the region, such as shifting the planting time, irrigation, rainwater harvesting, and use of drought/salinity tolerant varieties [
30]. Drought mitigation is time consuming and requires substantial investment. Therefore, some recommended farming practices are suggested for adaptation [
31]. The farming communities in the north-west region are struggling with drought adaptation in order to manage their livelihoods [
20]. To cope with droughts, farmers in this region have been adapting some measures through their own efforts, which should be acknowledged and enhanced through necessary research and extension. This study aims to assess the coping strategies of the farmers in the north-west region of Bangladesh.
The effects of drought on agriculture, and other sectors within the region, have attracted a number of studies [
20,
31,
32]. One study [
30] evaluated the existing adaptation practices and their economic sustainability for the agriculture sector of Bangladesh in the face of CC impacts and vulnerability. It was found that adaptation practices differ depending on the region and based on the technical and financial capacity of the farmers. Another study [
32] modeled climate-induced droughts in the north-west region of Bangladesh using quantitative trend analysis based on the collection of secondary data (i.e., temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and ground and surface water). The study looked at climatic indicators and geo-statistical analyses of ground and surface water levels with major findings revealing that changing climatic indicators and surface water availability affected the groundwater level and, subsequently, triggered droughts.
The aforementioned studies did not considerthe coping strategies used by the affected farmers. There are gaps in the literature regarding the assessment of the farmers’ perspectives on holistic adaptation strategies in the face of extreme CC events [
33,
34]. Several studies focusing on farmers’ adaptive options have been conducted, but most pointed out the perceived or predicted adaptation behaviors of farmers, with few studies focused on actual and existing adaptation measures and their decisive factors at the household level [
31].
Holistic adaptation measures [
26,
35] to CC and variability have been investigated, but limited studies [
16,
20] have managed to draw out farmers’ adaptation responses to drought and influential factors to adaptation strategies. Hence, there is a great need to understand the specific coping strategies that farmers employ in the face of increased drought at the household level, as well as the factors affecting the farmers’ choice of coping strategies. The purpose of the study was to assess the farmers’ coping strategies to drought and the factors influencing their strategic measures. Specifically, the studysought to understand how the farmers perceived the effect of drought on their agricultural production, to identify the coping strategies that the famers’ employed in times of drought, to determine the extent that farmers’ are practicing the coping strategies identified in the study, and thefactors that influenced the farmers’ use of drought coping strategies.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
This study was conducted in Ghoraghat Sub-District (Upazila) in theDinajpur District of north-west Bangladesh. Three unions (the lowermost unit of the local government of Bangladesh) were selected for this study after consultation with experts—i.e., the Upazila Agriculture Officer (UAO) and the Upazila Rural Development Officer (URDO)—from the same sub-district. The UAO is the mainstream agricultural extension service provider at the field level and works with farmers. The URDO works for rural development and one of the main activities carried out is to provide irrigation facilities (installation of deep tube wells) to the farmers for agricultural production. These organizations were selected as the relevant experts for consultation for the study. The three selected unions were Ghoraghat, Ghoraghat Paurashava and Shingra (see
Figure 2).
Dinajpur district is surrounded by Thakurgaon and Panchagarh districts in the north, Gaibandha and Joypurhat districts in the south, Nilphamari and Rangpur districts in the east, and West Bengal, India, in the west. The area of Dinajpur district is 3437.98 km
2 and it is located in the Barind Tract along with Rangpur, Pabna, Rajshahi, Bogra, Joypurhat and Naogaon districts of north-west Bangladesh. This region is a drought-prone area within Bangladesh. Dinajpur district has a distinct monsoon season and is typically characterized by a hot, wet and humid tropical climate. The annual average rainfall is comparatively lower (1979 mm) than in other parts of Bangladesh. The annual average temperature is 25 °C with a monthly variation of 18 °C in January and 29 °C in August. The
Dhepa, the
Punarbhaba and the
Atrai are the main rivers in this district [
36,
37].
The economy of this district relies mainly on agriculture-related products and activities—rice, wheat, some vegetables and fruits such as litchi and mangoes are the widely cultivated crops [
37]. Agriculture is the main source of income (63.90 percent) [
38] and this district is in a predominantly drought-prone area, but is also affected by other CC events [
39]. The farmers rely mainly on groundwater sources for agricultural and domestic uses. Moreover, the area is deprived of water availability due to river bed siltation, low water flow and a dam for India [
40]. Consequently, the farming activities in this area are extremely affected in terms of water availability for farming and domestic use.
2.2. Sampling, Data Collection and Analysis
The subjects of this study were agricultural households that farm within the three unions listed above. These farms were vulnerable to drought and the farmers utilize drought coping strategies. Drought coping strategies are the measures taken by the farmers to reduce the adverse impacts of drought on crop production. This includes how the farms are managed during the drought period as well as in the non-drought periods. These strategies are aimed at reducing the possible effects of drought.
A list of households using drought coping strategies was collected from the office of the Upazila Agriculture Officer (UAO) for each respective sub-district. A total of 1001 farmers were identified. A 10 percent sample size was determined for the study based on IFAS Agricultural Extension Services [
41] reporting that the ideal sample size fora population of 1000—with 95 percent confidence level and 10 percent level of precision (sampling error)—is 91. A total of 100 households from the list were randomly selected so that each respondent would get an equal chance of being selected to be part of the study sample. The sample characteristics were reflective of the population demographics.
This study employed a mixed methods approach, collecting qualitative and quantitative data in two stages. The design of the study was based on an exploratory sequential mixed-methods design that aimed to collect qualitative data in the first stage to assist in building the second stage quantitative data collection instrument [
42]. The first stage employed interviews and focus groups to prepare the data collection instrument. The second stage employed a questionnaire survey that was conducted by the researchers to collect the final data from the farmers.
One-on-one interviews and two focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted during the first stage to collect preliminary information about the farming districts and the drought-related issues from the farmers’ group. A total of 12 male farmers and eight female farmers participated in the FGDs. The FGDs were facilitated by using a checklist of information on climate change, drought effects, irrigation water management, and drought coping strategies that the researchers developed with the help of the experts. The second stage of data collection employed a questionnaire that was developed based on the information the researchers obtained from the FGDs and interviews conducted in the first stage. The questionnaire was piloted by 10 farmers. Then the necessary corrections and modifications were made accordingly. The questionnaire was deployed during the months of April to May, 2017. The questionnaire was comprised of four sections that included demographics and relevant farm/farmer characteristics such the farmers’ participation in organizations, social mobility and extension contacts in one section, and knowledge of drought coping strategies, the effects of drought on crop production, and the extent of practicing drought coping strategies in the other three sections.
The categorization of farmers’ participation in different organizations was made based on the observed score. For no participation, the score 0 was used, and for participation as a general member, executive member and president/secretary, a corresponding score of 1, 2, and 3, respectively, was used. Examples of organizations listed in the questionnaire are farmers’ co-operative societies, school committees, and a community information center. If the farmer declared participation, then the duration of that position was also asked.
In the case of the social mobility of the farmers, a scale was used and the categorization was made based on a possible scale score based on the frequency of visits. Frequency was determined as frequent (more than five times per month), occasionally (three to four times per month), rarely (one to two times per month) or not at all. Examples of places that the farmer could have reported visiting were outside of their village, their own district headquarters, or the capital city of Bangladesh.
Extension media are the sources of information from which the farmers collect relevant information regarding their farm-related problems. A four-point rating scale was used to assess the accessibility of extension media. Different extension media (19) were listed in the scale against four possible responses such as frequently, occasionally, rarely, and not at all with their corresponding score of 3, 2, 1, and 0, respectively.
In order to assess the knowledge of the farmers regarding coping strategies to drought, questions were asked within five knowledge categories, namely remembering, understanding, applying, analyzing and evaluating droughts and coping with drought. Each question was assigned a mark (2 or 3) and based on the response from the farmer, the marks were given. If the answer was correct then a full mark was given, half a mark was given for a partial answer and zero was given for the wrong answer.
A four-point rating scale was used to determine the farmers’ perceived effects of drought on agriculture. Thirteen effects such as scarcity of soil water, increased fallow land, and increased cost of production were identified from the first stage of the study. The farmers were asked to rate the effects of drought on crop production using high, medium, low, or none with a corresponding score of 3, 2, 1, and 0, respectively. Hence, the scale score ranged from 0 to 39, where 0 indicated no effect and 39 indicated a high effect. The ranking of the statements was carried out to prioritize the statements where the effects of drought are high. A weighted average index (WAI) [
43] for an individual coping strategy was computed to find out the important strategies in the study area (Equation (1)).
where
WAI = weighted average index,
Fh = frequency of responses with high effect,
Fm = frequency of responses with moderate effect,
Fl = frequency of responses with low effect,
Fn = frequency of responses with no effect, and
N = total number of responses.
The extent of practice of different drought coping strategies by the farmers was assessed by asking them about the frequency with which they practice the coping strategies. The responses obtained from the farmers were scaled as regularly, occasionally, seldom, and not at all, with a corresponding score of 3, 2, 1, and 0, respectively. The score ranged from 0 to 42, where 0 indicated no practice and 42 indicated widely practiced. Based on the score, the respondents were categorized into three drought coping strategy segments—low, moderate, and high practicing. An adaptation strategy index (ASI) [
5] for individual coping strategies was computed to find out how many farmers’ responded as using the drought coping strategies (Equation (2)).
where
ASI = adaptation strategy index,
ASr = number of responses with regular practice of drought coping strategies,
ASo = number of responses with occasional practice of drought coping strategies,
ASs = number of responses with rare practice of drought coping strategies,
ASn = number of responses with no practice of drought coping strategies.
The survey data was coded and analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) Version 16 using descriptive and inferential statistics. Microsoft Excel 13 was used to create various graphs based on the data analysis from SPSS. Pearson’s product moment coefficient of correlation was used to check for association between the explanatory and focus variables. Multiple linear regression and step-wise multiple regression were employed to identify the factors affecting the focus variable. In order to test the formulated hypotheses of the study, Pearson’s product moment correlation co-efficient (r) was used. Through this statistical treatment, the nature of the relationship between the explanatory and focus variables was determined. It was performed to explore the relationship between the farmers’ socio-economic characteristics and thefarmers’practiced drought coping strategies. The formula of Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient (
r) is given below.
where,
rxy = Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient
and = means of the variables x and y, respectively
Multiple regression analysis (both the enter and step-wise method) was used to determine the farmers’ practiced drought coping strategies. The multiple regression analysis equation is as follows:
where,
4. Conclusions
While it is evident that the farmers in the study area experienced adverse effects of drought on their agricultural production, the results regarding their existing coping strategies are not satisfactory. To cope with the adverse effects of droughts, the farmers have been adapting strategies like DTWs, STWs, and cultivating drought tolerant crops, especially rice varieties such as BRRI dhan56 and BRRI dhan57. While these coping strategies are of specific importance to minimizing drought effects, the extent of their uptake and, consequently, their impact, is being limited by other socio-economic factors such as low income, the level of education, age, access to extension, and logistics. The government of Bangladesh could act to ensure logistical support such as electricity and subsidies for the installation of more DTWs and STWs. Research into and the extension of drought-tolerant crop varieties could be strengthened to cope with droughts in the future. Age, education, and farm size were identified as the more influential factors affecting the adoption of drought coping strategies. Therefore, necessary initiatives focusing on these factors could increase the coping capacity of the farmers. Annual family income, organizational participation, and extension media contact were significant factors, but individual contributions to the model were not significant in explaining the variation of the practice of drought coping strategies as identified in this study. Hence, the policies and programs aimed at enhancing and strengthening the drought coping strategies of the farmers need to consider these factors as well. Moreover, development practitioners and extension organizations could concentrate on strengthening drought coping capacities for the betterment of farming communities. Increasing the knowledge level of farmers regarding drought and drought coping strategies, as well as making extension services easily accessible to the farming community, could improve drought coping strategies within the study area and could be applicable to other regions with a similar background and context.