A Novel Multi-Risk Assessment Web-Tool for Evaluating Future Impacts of Global Change in Mountainous Areas
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- How the climate change affects mountainous hazards, e.g., slopes stability, rock falls, floods, with a special attention on the different spatial and temporal scales involved in the physical processes;
- How the related risks should evolve with time; actually, early warning systems are designed to measure local climate variability, but it is still complex to identify reliable indicators for assessing risks evolutions on the long terms;
- How the main economic, social, and political stakeholders should interact to propose pertinent adaptation plans and to ensure better communication and appropriateness of strategies for disaster risk reduction.
2. Methodology, Design and Implementation of the SAMCO Web-Platform
2.1. General Methodology
- Green actions: Environmental awareness modifies lifestyles and practices so that green energy, ecology, local agriculture are developing in Europe. Grazing areas continues and wood production increases. Territory becomes a multifunctional area giving a pleasant environment to the population. Grasslands decrease and forest expands a lot with a high reforestation trends. In 2100, 50% of the valley is covered by dense forest;
- Tourism: In some mountain areas where beautiful landscapes are sought, the valorization of outdoor touristic activities are in development and benefit from public supports. Some areas are reopened in order to prevent landscapes from closing. Elsewhere, grassland turns into scrublands or forests. Dense forests increase by 5.2 ha/year;
- Agroenergy: The regions become more and more autonomous preserving national agriculture from international competition. European supports boost the development of pastoralism and green energy, leading to a decreasing of forest areas. Tourism decreases due to a lack of investments;
- Abandonment: Due to the economic competition in Europe and the decreasing of the European financial support for agriculture, importations increase, and local products decline as well as farming activities. Dense forests replace grasslands leading to an occupation rate for forest of around 40% in 2010 and 50% in 2100.
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- Physical injury to people consisting in any type of mechanical trauma to the body caused by hazards;
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- Structural and functional damage to buildings, lifelines and human activities over a relative limited time period;
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- Socio-economic impacts to socio-economic activities characterized by possible consequences diffuse in time and possibly far away for the damaging event;
2.2. Conceptual Aspects and Architecture
2.3. The Web Approach
3. Running the SAMCO Web-Platform
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Methodology | Landslides | Rockfalls | Floods |
---|---|---|---|
ALICE Code | ROCKY43D Code | Heuristic | |
Input parameters | DEM Cohesion Friction angle Watertable level (from rainfalls) Vegetation Failure length | DEM Rocks density Blocks features Soil roughness Soil type Vegetation features | DEM Geomorphology Field sampling Geophysics |
Physical model | Limit equilibrium theory | Physical propagation model | GIS Terrain analysis |
Output parameter | Probability of failure map from safety factor distributions. | Kinetic energy statistics Trajectory information: time, velocity, height, etc. | Sedimentary stocks Vulnerability to floods |
References | Baills et al., 2012 Bernardie et al., 2017 | Dorren, 2016 Bourrier, 2009 | Carlier et al., 2018 Arnaud-Fassetta et al., 2015 |
Site | Period | Hazard | Scenario for Economy | Scenario for Climate |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cauterets | Past (1950) | Landslides | Green actions | RCP4.5 |
Ubaye | Now (2010) | Rockfalls | Tourism | RCP8.5 |
Queyras | 2040 | Floods | Agroenergy | |
Vars | 2100 | Abandonment |
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Grandjean, G.; Thomas, L.; Bernardie, S.; The SAMCO Team. A Novel Multi-Risk Assessment Web-Tool for Evaluating Future Impacts of Global Change in Mountainous Areas. Climate 2018, 6, 92. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040092
Grandjean G, Thomas L, Bernardie S, The SAMCO Team. A Novel Multi-Risk Assessment Web-Tool for Evaluating Future Impacts of Global Change in Mountainous Areas. Climate. 2018; 6(4):92. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040092
Chicago/Turabian StyleGrandjean, Gilles, Loïc Thomas, Séverine Bernardie, and The SAMCO Team. 2018. "A Novel Multi-Risk Assessment Web-Tool for Evaluating Future Impacts of Global Change in Mountainous Areas" Climate 6, no. 4: 92. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040092
APA StyleGrandjean, G., Thomas, L., Bernardie, S., & The SAMCO Team. (2018). A Novel Multi-Risk Assessment Web-Tool for Evaluating Future Impacts of Global Change in Mountainous Areas. Climate, 6(4), 92. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040092