1. Introduction
TE is the process of evaluating the threat value of targets to defense forces and their interests, and also the process of ranking these targets according to the threat degree [
1,
2]. Rapid and accurate TE of incoming air targets is the core part of air defense systems and can significantly improve the efficiency of weapon assignment to deal with a multi-target attack [
3].
With the advancement of the aerospace industry, highly sophisticated aircraft such as unmanned aerial vehicles, hypersonic vehicles and tactical ballistic missiles deem the air combat environment more complex and changeable, posing severe challenges to target threat evaluation. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out research on air target threat evaluation methods.
Threat evaluation is essentially a multicriteria decision making (MCDM) problem. The traditional scheme is determined by experts or commanders according to the battlefield situation and their own experience, which is relatively simple and flexible, but the process is of great subjectivity and is vulnerable to a lack of expert knowledge. Furthermore, as the modern battlefield situation becomes more complex, a massive number of factors need to be considered in the evaluation process, which makes the empirical determination of the threat values impractical and hard to be reproduced. Therefore, there is a lot of demand for mathematical methods which could be implemented into computer systems for automatic threat evaluation. Up to now, there have been a lot of research results, for example, the TOPSIS method [
4,
5,
6], intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs) [
7,
8,
9], Bayesian networks [
10,
11,
12] and rough sets [
6], amongst others. These methods have their own characteristics and theoretical bases and can apply to different operating environments. However, threat evaluation cannot be carried out as a whole merely by mathematical methods, and the intention of decision-makers is usually ignored. This is why more and more approaches seek to conduct threat evaluation on the basis of mathematical methods and expert experience.
The concept of soft sets (SSs) was proposed by Molodtsov to overcome the limitations of the personal preferences and professional knowledge of decision-makers, in addition to the incompleteness and uncertainty of the evaluation index information [
13]. On the basis of IFSs and SSs, Maji et al. [
14,
15,
16] put forward the theory of intuitionistic fuzzy soft sets (IFSSs), and Agarwal et al. [
17,
18] proposed the concept of GIFSS. Compared with IFSS, a framework is provided by GIFSS to evaluate the information credibility to compensate for the distortion of the index information. By adding the generalized parameters into the IFSS matrix, the possible errors caused by inaccurate information can be reduced, and this has a good effect when dealing with inaccurate and uncertain index information. Therefore, GIFSS is suitable for threat evaluation of air targets with greater measurement uncertainty, and some research results have been obtained. Wu Hua introduced a multi-expert parameter set to address the knowledge limitation of only one expert in the original GIFSS and constructed a group GIFSS for threat evaluation of aerial targets [
19]. Feng et al. introduced the relative entropy theory to GIFSS to determine the reasonable weight for TI [
20].
All these methods under intuitionistic fuzzy theory need to aggregate the intuitionistic fuzzy values (IFVs) by the so-called aggregation operators to obtain the evaluation results and rank the alternatives, which demonstrate the preferences of decision-makers. Agarwal [
18] and Harish Garg [
21] introduced the geometric and averaging aggregation operators for GIFSS, which are denoted by GWG and GWA operators. Although, when combined with different entropy theories, the existing aggregation operators can depict different preferences for the indexes, they only consider the situations in which all the indexes are independent. That is, only the additive relation of the importance of each index is considered. However, in practical air defense operations, the indexes of the threat evaluation are usually correlative, for example, we may intend to attach more importance to the targets who are closer to the defending assets and at a higher velocity. In order to solve such problems, the Choquet integral [
22], as a very useful tool for measuring the expected utility of an uncertain event, has been successfully applied in decision problems. Tan and Chen [
23] proposed an intuitionistic fuzzy Choquet integral for multi-criteria decision making. Xu [
24] used the Choquet integral to propose some aggregation operators for IFS and interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs). These operators can not only depict the importance of the independent index but also demonstrate the correlations among the index system.
Since the fuzzy measure is defined on the power set, the problem of determining the fuzzy measure of each index and index set is exponentially complex. To solve this problem, some special fuzzy measures have been proposed, such as the
-fuzzy measure [
25] and the
k-additive measure [
26]. Tan [
27] provided a method of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making based on the
-fuzzy measure. On the basis of the
-fuzzy measure, Meng [
28] introduced the generalized
-Shapley index to the IVIFS Choquet integral to reflect the overall interaction among the index system. Qu extended the generalized
-Shapley index to the IFS Choquet integrals and developed an algorithm for ranking alternatives with the TOPSIS method [
29].
Air defense scenarios usually involve three bodies, that is, the incoming targets, the interceptors and the defending assets; therefore, threat evaluation index systems should not only consider the relative kinematics between the targets and assets but also include the relative kinematics between the targets and interceptors. However, to the best of our knowledge, only the former kinematics is considered in all of the existing literature. Furthermore, none of the aforementioned IFS-based methods applied in threat evaluation of aerial targets consider the interaction or correlation among the criteria set, and, to the best of our knowledge, there is no aggregation operator for GIFSS considering how to obtain the fuzzy measure on each index set, nor reflecting the overall average contribution of each index and index set to the index system. This paper fills these gaps by constructing a threat evaluation index system with both relative kinematics between the three bodies and by proposing two new aggregation operators for GIFSS with the generalized -Shapley Choquet integral.
The contributions of this study are summarized as the following two aspects:
The threat evaluation index system is reasonably constructed by analyzing the relative kinematics between the targets and assets, apart from that between the targets and defending interceptors, which is more reasonable and practical;
Based on Choquet integral theory, the generalized Shapley index and -fuzzy measure, two new aggregation operators for GIFSS, are proposed, which can depict the correlations among the evaluation index and reflect the overall average contribution of each index and index set to the whole index system.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows.
Section 2 introduces the basic concepts and definitions relevant to IFS and GIFSS. In
Section 3, the threat evaluation index system is constructed and the threat indexes are properly obtained. Thereafter, the generalized
-Shapley Choquet integral operators for GIFSS are proposed in
Section 4, and in
Section 5, the evaluation example including four targets and result analyses are shown. Finally, conclusions are drawn in
Section 6.
3. Construction of the Threat Evaluation Index System
As an important part of the air target threat evaluation process, the index system depicts the complete characterization of the incoming aerial targets. The construction of the threat index system can be divided into three sequence procedures: determination of the threat indexes, perception of the threat indexes and standardization of the indexes. The procedures are specified as follows.
3.1. Determination of the Threat Indexes
The actual air defense operation is dynamic, interactive and sophisticated, and air targets have various types and diverse characteristics. Therefore, when determining an evaluation index, it is necessary to choose representative factors that can depict the threat level of the targets from different perspectives, and these factors need to be considered as a whole.
According to the domestic and foreign literature, most of the indexes considered in establishing the threat evaluation model of air defense are based on two bodies, that is, the defending assets and the targets, though these indexes are classified from different perspectives, for example, the target capability and target intent [
5,
11,
12,
35] or the overall target characteristics, the target position characteristics and the target motion characteristics [
20,
36]. However, in fact, the interceptors usually play an important role in the air defense scenario, and the relative kinematics between the targets and defending interceptors should certainly be included in the evaluation index system.
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the threat of aerial targets, the target characteristics and the relative kinematics between the targets and interceptors, where the relative kinematics between the targets and defending assets are taken as the selection criteria, and then to determine eight evaluation indexes: target type, target height, distance from asset, route shortcut from asset, distance from the interceptor, relative velocity between the target and the interceptor, target velocity and acceleration, which can all be obtained with the measurement from the infrared (IR) seekers equipped in the interceptors. The target route shortcut is the vertical distance from the asset to the projected extension line of the velocity of the target in the horizontal plane. The evaluation index system of air target threats is shown in
Figure 1, where the indexes in red boxes represent cost indexes, which indicate that the bigger the index, the greater the threat of the target; meanwhile, the indexes in the green boxes belong to benefit indexes, which indicate that the smaller the index, the greater the threat of the target.
However, in addition to the above eight indexes, other factors also have an important influence on the threat evaluation of air targets in actual air combat, for example, jamming ability and lethality (marked in dotted boxes), amongst others, which are difficult to be measured and expressed quantitatively; therefore, it is of great necessity to introduce GIFSS to provide a generalized parameter set for the various aforementioned factors highlighted by the experts. In this way, the evaluation result is more reasonable.
3.2. Perception of the Threat Indexes
It is assumed that each interceptor is equipped with an inexpensive IR sensor, which can only provide noisy bearing-only measurements. However, the indexes related to the kinematics between the interceptors and the targets such as the distance from the interceptor and the target velocity can still be obtained through cooperative estimation [
37,
38,
39,
40]. In addition, we assume the type of target can be determined by the infrared signature.
Figure 2 presents the planar geometry of an interceptor, one target and the defending asset. The defending asset is located at the origin of the axis. The distance between the target and the interceptor is denoted as
,
is the angle between the interceptor’s LOS to the target and the
X axis and
is the angle between the target velocity and the
X axis. In addition, the coordinates of the interceptor are obtained by the inertial navigation system and denoted as
.
The height of the target can be calculated as
The range between the target and the asset can be calculated as
Finally, the target route shortcut can be calculated as
At this point, all the selected indexes for target threat evaluation are obtained.
3.3. Quantification of the Threat Indexes
As it was mentioned before, the air target threat assessment index of air defense operation includes various types of data. Each index value in the index system has an impact on the comprehensive evaluation value of the system; therefore, it is necessary to standardize different types of data to intuitionistic fuzzy numbers to evaluate the threat of the targets.
3.3.1. Quantification Method of Indexes in Fuzzy Evaluation Language
In this paper, the fuzzy language of the target type is divided into five levels. It is necessary to transform the fuzzy language into an intuitionistic fuzzy set.
Table 1 shows the relationship between the fuzzy language and intuitionistic fuzzy set pair.
3.3.2. Quantification Method of Indexes in Real Numbers
For the benefit indexes, such as the target velocity and acceleration, assume there are
m targets and
n indexes; the membership degree and non-membership degree can be determined as follows:
where
are adjusting parameters which are determined according to the air defense situation satisfying
,
,
.
For the cost indexes, such as the target route shortcut and height, the membership degree and non-membership degree can be determined as
where
are also adjusting parameters and defined the same as
.