Robust Consensus Modeling: Concerning Consensus Fairness and Efficiency with Uncertain Costs
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- (1)
- Most of the current research on the fairness of group consensus has been conducted in a deterministic environment, and there is currently a significant gap in the research on consensus efficiency. However, uncertainty factors are widely present and cannot be ignored, and similarly, the impact of the complexity of uncertainty factors on the efficiency and fairness of reaching consensus cannot be ignored.
- (2)
- In most consensus studies, the DMs’ weights tend to be determined individually. In classic GDM models that do not take social networks into account, each DM’s weight is directly determined based on the subjective experience of the moderator, while each DM’s weight is uniquely determined by the trust relationships of the DMs in SNGDM. In real decision making scenarios, differences in the professional skills, educational background, and social experiences of the DMs can directly affect their weights. These factors should also not be ignored in the assignment of weights.
- (1)
- A robust consensus model focusing on fairness and efficiency with uncertain costs is proposed. The proposed model not only introduces the fair utility level to measure the fairness of compensation allocation, but also introduces the opinion adjustment distance to measure the efficiency of reaching consensus. Moreover, this paper constructs four kinds of uncertainty sets to portray the uncertainty of the unit adjustment cost more accurately.
- (2)
- A data-driven method combined with the trust propagation method in social networks is used to determine the DMs’ weights jointly. The data-driven method mainly determines the DMs’ weights (i.e., intrinsic influence) from a large amount of historical data, which mainly reflects differences in the DMs’ social experiences, preferences, and educational backgrounds. The trust propagation determines the DMs’ weights in the social network (i.e., extrinsic influence), which mainly reflects the DMs’ trust degrees in the social network. The combination of the two methods jointly determines the weights, which is more scientific and objective.
- (3)
- The proposed model is applied to the carbon emission reduction negotiation process between the government and enterprises, focusing on analyzing the influence of uncertain parameter levels, DMs’ fair concern behaviors, and other factors on consensus fairness and the efficiency of reaching consensus. The experimental results also verify the rationality and robustness of the proposed model.
2. Preliminaries
2.1. Minimum Adjustment Consensus Model and Consensus Metrics
- (1)
- When 2, . The larger the distance between and , the smaller the consensus level, which is consistent with the actual consensus process.
- (2)
- When , . The larger the distance between and , the smaller the consensus level, which is consistent with actual consensus process.
- (3)
- When 2, the distance between and is too large for the moderator to accept the adjusted opinion.
2.2. Fairness Preference Theory
2.3. Trust Propagation and Aggregation in the Social Network
3. Model Construction
3.1. Determination of Weight
3.2. Fair Utility Level
3.3. Uncertainty in Unit Adjustment Cost
3.4. Robust Consensus Model Considering Fairness and Efficiency
3.4.1. EFCM Based on Box Set
3.4.2. EFCM Based on Ellipsoid Set
3.4.3. EFCM Based on Box–Ellipsoid Set
- and . Moreover, is the dual cone of and .
- In , , . Since the dual paradigm of the second paradigm is itself, holds. In effect, it is a second-order cone.
3.4.4. EFCM Based on Box–Polyhedral Set
- , , and , where , and is the dual cone of .
- and , which implies that = . This is because 1-paradigm numbers and infinity-paradigm numbers are pairwise-paradigm numbers to each other.
4. Simulation
4.1. Numerical Example
4.2. Comparative Analysis
- (1)
- The proposed model in this paper is more efficient and has a lower consensus cost. Take the MACM as an example: The MACM proposed by Dong et al. [52] has a theoretical solution and the total distance of the opinion adjustment is much higher than that of this paper , in other words, the MACM is less efficient in reaching consensus. Moreover, the consensus budget in the MACM is much higher than the EFCM proposed in this paper , reflecting that when the government has a sufficient budget, enterprises may adjust their opinions through multiple rounds of negotiation, which increases the overall negotiation cost, and leads to a lower efficiency of reaching consensus.
- (2)
- The proposed model in this paper is more relevant to the practical GDM scenarios and pays more attention to multiple indicators in the CRP. From the results in Table 2, it is not difficult to find that when there are uncertainties, the fair utility level of enterprise is 0, so enterprise may take non-cooperative measures to hinder the CRP in the actual GDM. In the proposed consensus models (i.e., EFCM-B, EFCM-E, EFCM-BE, EFCM-BP) that consider the uncertain unit adjustment cost, a high fair utility level (i.e., in Section 4.1) for all the enterprises is ensured, as well as the efficiency of the consensus being reached under a limited cost budget.
4.3. Sensitivity Analysis
4.3.1. Sensitivity Analysis of Consensus Cost Budget
- (1)
- As the consensus budget increases, the efficiency of reaching a consensus decreases (i.e., the adjustment distance of the opinion increases). We argue that enterprises’ pursuits of maximizing their compensation during the negotiation is the reason for this phenomenon. In other words, as the government’s budget increases, enterprises pursue higher compensation gains by constantly revising their opinions, which leads to an overall increase in the adjustment distance of the opinion; in other words, it leads to a decrease in the efficiency of reaching consensus.
- (2)
- The government should set a reasonable consensus budget. When the consensus budget is low, the budget of the EFCM to reach consensus is equal to the government-set budget. With the increase in the consensus budget, the budget of the EFCM to reach consensus becomes closer to the government-set budget. When the government budget is high, increasing the consensus budget, the efficiency of consensus being reached only increases in a small range, indicating that a consensus budget that is too high cannot significantly improve the efficiency of reaching consensus. Therefore, setting an appropriate consensus budget helps to ensure the efficiency of reaching consensus, and it is recommended that the moderator sets a reasonable consensus budget for actual GDM problems.
4.3.2. Sensitivity Analysis of Consensus Threshold
4.3.3. Sensitivity Analysis of Perturbation Cost
4.3.4. Sensitivity Analysis of Uncertainty Parameter Level
4.3.5. Sensitivity Analysis of Group Fair Utility Level
4.3.6. Sensitivity Analysis of Fair Concern Behavior
- (1)
- The jealousy preference of all the DMs has a stronger impact on the efficiency of reaching consensus in the CRP. When the other DMs do not have a jealous preference (i.e., case 1), the adjustment distance of the opinion fluctuates in a small interval as the jealous preference coefficient increases, indicating that the jealous preference behavior of a single DM cannot significantly affect the group’s efficiency of reaching consensus. When other DMs have a full jealousy preference (i.e., case 2), as the jealousy preference coefficient increases, the adjustment distance of the opinion increases, indicating that all the DMs exhibit jealousy preference behavior, which significantly affects the efficiency of reaching consensus.
- (2)
- Secondly, comparing Table 9 and Table 10, whether all the DMs exhibit jealousy preference behavior or not has different effects on the efficiency of reaching consensus. Specifically, in the EFCM, EFCM-B, and EFCM-E, when all the DMs exhibit jealous preference behavior, it increases the adjustment distance of the opinion compared to when a single DM exhibits jealous preference behavior. In other words, when all the DMs exhibit jealous preference behavior, reaching consensus will be less efficient. Conversely, in EFCM-BE and EFCM-BP, when all the DMs exhibit jealousy preference behavior, it leads to a decrease in the adjustment distance of the opinion compared to when a single DM exhibits jealous preference behavior.
5. Conclusions
- (1)
- This paper proposes robust group consensus models focusing on fairness and efficiency, studies how to reach consensus efficiently and fairly under uncertain costs and enriches the theoretical system of group consensus research.
- (2)
- This paper utilizes a data-driven approach combined with the trust transfer method in social networks to jointly determine the weights of the decision makers. Compared with the single method of determining DMs’ weights based on the subjective experience of moderators or the trust degree in social networks in existing studies, the method of determining weights by combining data-driven methods and trust transfer in social networks adopted in this paper is more scientific and objective.
- (1)
- Comparing the MACM proposed by Dong et al. [52] and the robust consensus models proposed by Han et al. [64], the proposed models in this paper have a higher efficiency of reaching consensus and a lower consensus cost. In addition, compared with the above studies, the proposed models in this paper are more relevant to GDM problems and pay more attention to multiple metrics in the CRP.
- (2)
- There are differences in the effects of the perturbation cost and uncertainty parameter level on the efficiency of reaching consensus. Specifically, with the increase in the perturbation cost, the adjustment distance of the opinion shows a trend of gradual increase. For the uncertain parameter level, when the uncertainty set is a box set and ellipsoid set, with the increase in the uncertain parameter level, the efficiency of reaching consensus decreases (the adjustment distance of the opinion increases), and when the uncertainty set is a box–ellipsoid set and a box–polyhedron set, with the increase in the uncertainty parameter level, the efficiency of reaching consensus increases (the opinion adjustment distance becomes decreases). Therefore, when faced with GDM of varying complexity, the moderator should choose different uncertainty sets with an appropriate uncertainty parameter level to accurately characterize the uncertainty cost.
- (3)
- Taking the negotiation between the government and enterprises on carbon emission reduction as an example, the government should pay full attention to the fair concern behavior shown by enterprises in the CRP, and mainly avoid DMs’ unreasonable jealousy preference behavior. Furthermore, the government can formulate a reasonable consensus cost budget to ensure a reasonable group fair utility level and the efficiency of reaching consensus.
- (1)
- Only one consensus efficiency measure is used in this paper to construct the consensus model. So, different consensus efficiency measures could be flexibly adopted for future consensus scenarios.
- (2)
- The social network structure considered in this paper is static. However, the connections between individuals may change dynamically in real SNGDM, and the individual weights evolve dynamically as a result. So, it could be possible to study consensus based on the dynamic social network structure in the future.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Efficiency | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFCM | 1.4298 | 0.0682 | 1.3793 | 1.0318 | 1.4222 | 0.8139 | 10.2433 | 24.9232 |
EFCM-B | 2.1041 | 0.6746 | 0.6621 | 1.579 | 2.1057 | 1.2135 | 9.0152 | 16.0081 |
EFCM-E | 4.0709 | 1.0934 | 3.3084 | 3.1719 | 4.4799 | 2.4631 | 7.6259 | 21.2987 |
EFCM-BE | 1.2355 | 0.1515 | 1.5558 | 1.121 | 1.3199 | 0.7095 | 14.0438 | 16.9342 |
EFCM-BP | 1.9271 | 0.275 | 0.5075 | 1.3518 | 1.931 | 1.1356 | 11.9539 | 23.9909 |
MCCM-B | 0.7842 | 0 | 0.9461 | 0.4625 | 0.8824 | 77.9413 |
MCCM-E | 0.787 | 0 | 0.9465 | 0.471 | 0.8834 | 78.8421 |
20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFCM | 6.6107 | 9.7484 | 12.9206 | 14.3994 | 15.839 | 16.2425 |
EFCM-B | 7.4818 | 10.358 | 12.9607 | 15.0529 | 16.0787 | 16.9564 |
EFCM-E | 7.946 | 10.5183 | 14.9001 | 16.7752 | 17.4683 | 18.3472 |
EFCM-BE | 8.7839 | 12.0972 | 17.165 | 17.4603 | 17.7757 | 17.9875 |
EFCM-BP | 13.117 | 13.7471 | 16.4441 | 19.0974 | 21.5613 | 22.6664 |
20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFCM | 20.1207 | 30.0822 | 40.05 | 43.4603 | 48.8724 | 50.0644 |
EFCM-B | 12.5214 | 19.6475 | 27.2221 | 35.0102 | 43.9578 | 35.6324 |
EFCM-B | 17.0516 | 25.2726 | 31.8104 | 43.1147 | 42.0282 | 31.6937 |
EFCM-BE | 20.214 | 30.1506 | 40.2043 | 45.6546 | 39.1401 | 43.4572 |
EFCM-BP | 20.4165 | 30.0245 | 34.3489 | 48.4952 | 50.0519 | 36.6591 |
0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFCM | 13.0172 | 14.143 | 15.3994 | 15.5407 | 15.6651 | 15.7479 | 15.9805 | 16.1608 | 16.1994 |
EFCM-B | 15.3161 | 15.5471 | 15.6458 | 15.9569 | 16.2882 | 16.7567 | 16.9575 | 17.1141 | 17.366 |
EFCM-E | 15.6709 | 16.4858 | 17.1722 | 15.266 | 16.7752 | 15.741 | 16.5135 | 15.4698 | 15.5382 |
EFCM-BE | 10.1948 | 9.1038 | 11.4718 | 10.4049 | 10.8935 | 8.8979 | 8.9554 | 10.5364 | 9.3254 |
EFCM-BP | 10.8013 | 10.888 | 11.474 | 12.0162 | 12.0857 | 12.7641 | 12.8721 | 13.3083 | 13.3464 |
0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFCM-B | 14.8867 | 16.7567 | 17.0446 | 18.1708 | 19.6465 | 20.899 | 21.5537 | 22.0501 | 22.4506 |
EFCM-E | 16.7752 | 17.4627 | 17.6614 | 17.9514 | 18.2154 | 18.2299 | 18.7311 | 19.3342 | 20.2506 |
EFCM-BE | 10.5635 | 10.8935 | 14.862 | 15.5095 | 15.5284 | 15.5327 | 16.0024 | 16.0374 | 16.0714 |
EFCM-BP | 11.1307 | 11.1929 | 11.285 | 11.3102 | 11.503 | 11.9331 | 11.9933 | 12.0162 | 12.4327 |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFCM-B | 15.5471 | 17.1542 | 18.6913 | 20.1231 | 20.7203 |
EFCM-E | 16.7752 | 17.0197 | 17.7207 | 18.6869 | 19.4116 |
EFCM-BE | 13.0068 | 10.8935 | 9.6779 | 9.4527 | 9.2381 |
EFCM-BP | 16.5269 | 11.6638 | 11.5449 | 11.4584 | 11.4059 |
0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFCM | 15.8481 | 15.6333 | 15.6144 | 15.3462 | 15.0359 | 14.3994 | 13.0294 | 12.854 | 10.9792 |
EFCM-B | 19.0852 | 18.9557 | 18.8851 | 18.7421 | 18.626 | 15.5471 | 15.0112 | 14.6771 | 13.0382 |
EFCM-E | 18.3098 | 17.7684 | 17.0651 | 16.8359 | 16.7752 | 16.3747 | 16.3454 | 14.6241 | 13.1201 |
EFCM-BE | 14.4774 | 14.9848 | 15.0872 | 15.3507 | 15.6197 | 16.6413 | 17.8202 | 18.3536 | 18.3674 |
EFCM-BP | 11.0231 | 11.0946 | 11.1709 | 11.4438 | 11.7217 | 12.076 | 12.7541 | 15.5456 | 16.5269 |
0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFCM | 15.0828 | 15.0836 | 15.0824 | 15.0826 | 15.0832 | 15.0833 | 15.0805 | 15.0797 | 15.0804 | 15.0798 | 15.5921 |
EFCM-B | 18.9297 | 18.9247 | 19.2734 | 19.2315 | 18.7989 | 18.7923 | 18.7793 | 18.7543 | 18.7513 | 18.7393 | 18.7325 |
EFCM-E | 18.0057 | 18.3617 | 18.4923 | 19.1581 | 17.577 | 18.6388 | 18.6092 | 18.6166 | 18.6382 | 18.5911 | 18.6464 |
EFCM-BE | 13.764 | 13.2629 | 14.0104 | 14.1305 | 14.1447 | 13.9202 | 13.8389 | 13.3599 | 13.3706 | 14.1217 | 14.2109 |
EFCM-BP | 10.9244 | 10.9187 | 10.9137 | 10.9049 | 10.8953 | 10.8857 | 10.876 | 10.8662 | 10.8565 | 10.8469 | 10.8376 |
0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFCM | 12.7218 | 12.851 | 12.912 | 12.929 | 12.965 | 13.029 | 13.166 | 13.469 | 13.706 | 15.239 | 15.291 |
EFCM-B | 13.1835 | 13.186 | 13.188 | 13.192 | 13.194 | 13.196 | 13.197 | 13.200 | 15.040 | 16.143 | 16.446 |
EFCM-E | 13.4631 | 13.469 | 13.834 | 14.042 | 14.629 | 16.407 | 16.856 | 16.902 | 16.909 | 17.172 | 17.334 |
EFCM-BE | 16.2986 | 16.344 | 16.833 | 17.112 | 17.622 | 17.816 | 17.972 | 18.250 | 18.316 | 18.398 | 18.446 |
EFCM-BP | 11.4241 | 11.92 | 12.076 | 12.082 | 12.168 | 12.30 | 12.53 | 12.567 | 12.597 | 13.782 | 15.146 |
0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFCM | 15.083 | 15.088 | 15.100 | 15.079 | 15.083 | 15.083 | 15.410 | 15.707 | 16.611 | 16.202 | 17.014 |
EFCM-B | 18.930 | 18.913 | 18.910 | 18.665 | 18.757 | 18.754 | 18.423 | 19.696 | 19.668 | 19.875 | 20.558 |
EFCM-E | 18.006 | 18.186 | 18.279 | 17.868 | 18.621 | 18.331 | 17.255 | 19.354 | 19.898 | 17.799 | 18.834 |
EFCM-BE | 16.759 | 15.961 | 12.828 | 17.077 | 17.295 | 13.599 | 13.760 | 13.916 | 12.086 | 13.550 | 16.587 |
EFCM-BP | 10.924 | 10.927 | 10.922 | 10.911 | 10.894 | 10.876 | 11.096 | 11.549 | 12.498 | 12.302 | 11.741 |
0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFCM | 15.965 | 15.140 | 15.806 | 15.961 | 15.933 | 15.076 | 15.982 | 15.708 | 15.897 | 16.931 | 16.215 |
EFCM-B | 19.250 | 18.954 | 19.177 | 18.835 | 18.914 | 18.992 | 19.134 | 19.640 | 19.782 | 19.849 | 20.014 |
EFCM-E | 16.941 | 18.815 | 18.969 | 18.914 | 18.702 | 18.839 | 18.923 | 16.698 | 19.557 | 18.026 | 21.330 |
EFCM-BE | 17.527 | 17.689 | 16.500 | 14.830 | 17.819 | 19.078 | 17.941 | 18.867 | 21.041 | 20.762 | 15.708 |
EFCM-BP | 10.852 | 10.818 | 10.885 | 10.868 | 10.858 | 10.868 | 11.419 | 11.536 | 13.329 | 12.177 | 14.038 |
−1 | −0.9 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.1 | 0 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFCM | 15.127 | 15.119 | 15.747 | 15.763 | 15.068 | 15.104 | 15.103 | 15.101 | 15.094 | 15.091 | 15.083 |
EFCM-B | 18.822 | 18.809 | 18.796 | 18.769 | 18.738 | 18.747 | 18.625 | 18.620 | 19.158 | 18.930 | 18.715 |
EFCM-E | 18.682 | 18.683 | 18.689 | 18.612 | 18.614 | 18.588 | 18.551 | 18.473 | 18.553 | 19.091 | 18.006 |
EFCM-BE | 10.158 | 10.462 | 10.036 | 10.393 | 10.393 | 10.289 | 10.792 | 10.87 | 10.951 | 10.759 | 10.345 |
EFCM-BP | 10.809 | 10.712 | 10.697 | 10.682 | 10.666 | 10.659 | 10.604 | 10.591 | 10.588 | 10.597 | 10.924 |
−1 | −0.9 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.1 | 0 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFCM | 15.497 | 15.871 | 15.858 | 16.078 | 15.823 | 15.733 | 15.493 | 15.837 | 15.423 | 15.387 | 15.828 |
EFCM-B | 18.676 | 18.916 | 18.702 | 18.676 | 18.713 | 18.721 | 18.721 | 18.730 | 18.453 | 18.948 | 18.850 |
EFCM-E | 18.861 | 18.408 | 18.631 | 18.883 | 18.411 | 18.534 | 18.616 | 18.763 | 18.696 | 18.985 | 18.590 |
EFCM-BE | 10.296 | 2.938 | 2.945 | 4.524 | 4.253 | 2.037 | 1.996 | 11.463 | 14.708 | 7.852 | 8.236 |
EFCM-BP | 10.613 | 10.611 | 10.614 | 10.630 | 10.658 | 10.495 | 10.527 | 10.569 | 10.665 | 10.799 | 10.627 |
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Zhang, X.; Liang, H.; Qu, S. Robust Consensus Modeling: Concerning Consensus Fairness and Efficiency with Uncertain Costs. Mathematics 2024, 12, 1266. https://doi.org/10.3390/math12081266
Zhang X, Liang H, Qu S. Robust Consensus Modeling: Concerning Consensus Fairness and Efficiency with Uncertain Costs. Mathematics. 2024; 12(8):1266. https://doi.org/10.3390/math12081266
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Xuyuan, Hailin Liang, and Shaojian Qu. 2024. "Robust Consensus Modeling: Concerning Consensus Fairness and Efficiency with Uncertain Costs" Mathematics 12, no. 8: 1266. https://doi.org/10.3390/math12081266
APA StyleZhang, X., Liang, H., & Qu, S. (2024). Robust Consensus Modeling: Concerning Consensus Fairness and Efficiency with Uncertain Costs. Mathematics, 12(8), 1266. https://doi.org/10.3390/math12081266