4. Results
To find the differences between the pre-crisis period and the start of the Decade of Action, let us consider the dynamics of the arithmetic means of the sources of financing and results in the sphere of sustainable development in the world in 2019–2021 (
Figure 1).
According to
Figure 1, total investment showed an upward trend in 2019, having increased by 0.85% compared to 2018. In 2020, it increased even more (by 1.43%), and in 2021, it was slashed by 4.25%.
General government net lending/borrowing in 2019 (−1.56% of GDP) increased by 20.55% compared to 2018 (−1.88% of GDP). In 2020, it increased even more (by 248.05% to −6.54% of GDP), and, in 2021, it decreased by 19.16% (to −5.29% of GDP), which was largely due to a change in GDP rather than a change in borrowing.
The general government structural balance in 2019 (−0.74% of GDP) increased by 26.14% compared to 2018 (−0.94% of GDP). In 2020, it increased even more (by 129.79% to −2.158% of GDP), and, in 2021, it was slashed by 7.22% (to −5.29% of GDP), which was largely due to a change in GDP than a change in the structural balance.
General government gross debt in 2019 (57.91% of GDP) showed an upward trend, increasing by 2.70% compared to 2018 (56.39% of GDP). In 2020, it increased even more (by 18, 53% to 68.64% of GDP), and, in 2021, it was slashed by 5.72% (to 64.72% of GDP), which was more due to changes in GDP than changes in public debt.
The analysis carried out indicates a high risk of a reduction in financing for sustainable development in total from all sources (quantitative characteristics). This was probably the reason for the slowdown in sustainable development. In 2019 (55.87 points), the Sustainable Development Index increased by 5.77% compared to 2018 (52.82 points). In 2020, the growth rate of this index slowed down and amounted to 3.77% (to 57.97 points), and, in 2021, it decreased by 0.62% (to 57.61 points).
To identify the characteristics of each region of the world, a detailed study was conducted on the example of African countries (
Table 2), America and the Caribbean (
Table 3), Asian countries (
Table 4), and European countries (
Table 5).
According to
Table 2, total investment showed an upward trend in 2019, having increased by 4.75% compared to 2018. In 2020, it decreased by 1.63%, and, in 2021, it increased by 4.45%.
General government net lending/borrowing in 2019 (−2.74% of GDP) decreased by 3.79% compared to 2018 (−2.85% of GDP). In 2020, it increased by 127.71% (to −6.25% of GDP), and, in 2021, it decreased by 17.84% (to −3.79% of GDP), which was largely due to changes in GDP rather than changes in lending/borrowing.
The general government structural balance in 2019 (−0.52% of GDP) increased by 695.92% compared to 2018 (−0.07% of GDP). In 2020, it increased by 23.74% (to −0.65% of GDP), and, in 2021, it decreased by 720.72% (to −0.51% of GDP), which was largely due to changes in GDP rather than a change in the structural balance.
General government gross debt in 2019 (62.96% of GDP) showed an upward trend, increasing by 6.13% compared to 2018 (59.32% of GDP). In 2020, it increased even more (by 13.12% to 71.22% of GDP), and, in 2021, it decreased by 1.19% (to 70.37% of GDP), which was more due to changes in GDP than changes in public debt.
The analysis carried out indicates a high risk of a reduction in financing for sustainable development in total from all sources (quantitative characteristics) in African countries. This likely contributed to the slowdown in sustainable development in Africa. In 2019 (46.93 points), the Sustainable Development Index increased by 4.26% compared to 2018 (45.01 points). In 2020, the growth rate of this index slowed down and amounted to 4.53% (to 49.06 points), and, in 2021, it decreased by 3.24% (to 47.47 points).
According to
Table 3, total investment in 2019 showed a moderate reduction trend, decreasing by 4.76% compared to 2018. In 2020, this trend intensified, and it decreased by 6.16%; in 2021, it increased by 6.69%.
General government net lending/borrowing in 2019 (−3.45% of GDP) decreased by 9.10% compared to 2018 (−3.80% of GDP). In 2020, it increased by 638.86% (to 18.61% of GDP), and, in 2021, it decreased by 128.86% (to −5.37% of GDP), which was more due to changes in GDP than a change in lending/borrowing.
The general government structural balance in 2019 (−1% of GDP) decreased by 38.31% compared to 2018 (−1.62% of GDP). In 2020, it increased by 662.64% (to −7.62% of GDP), and, in 2021, it decreased by 29.50% (to −5.37% of GDP), which was largely due to changes in GDP rather than a change in the structural balance.
General government gross debt in 2019 (66.98% of GDP) showed an upward trend, increasing by 5.38% compared to 2018 (63.56% of GDP). In 2020, it increased even more (by 25.38% to 83.98% of GDP), and, in 2021, it decreased by 14.38% (to 71.90% of GDP), which was more due to changes in GDP than changes in public debt.
The analysis carried out indicates a high risk of a reduction in financing for sustainable development in total from all sources (quantitative characteristics) in the countries of the Americas and the Caribbean. This likely contributed to the slowdown in sustainable development in the Americas and the Caribbean. In 2019 (56.17 points), the Sustainable Development Index increased by 4.11% compared to 2018 (53.96 points). In 2020, the growth rate of this index accelerated and amounted to 5.19% (to 59.09 points), and, in 2021, it decreased by 1.20% (to 58.38 points).
According to
Table 4, total investment showed an upward trend in 2019, having increased by 0.65% compared to 2018. In 2020, it increased by 9.92%, and, in 2021, it decreased by 16.79%.
General government net lending/borrowing in 2019 (−1.43% of GDP) decreased by 3381.85% compared to 2018 (−0.30% of GDP). In 2020, it increased by 329.86% (to −6.13% of GDP), and, in 2021, it decreased by 18.12% (to −5.02% of GDP), which was largely due to changes in GDP rather than changes in lending/borrowing.
The general government structural balance in 2019 (−1.06% of GDP) increased by 13.51% compared to 2018 (−0.94% of GDP). In 2020, it increased by 37.11% (to −1.46% of GDP), and, in 2021, it decreased by 16.43% (to −1.22% of GDP), which was largely due to changes in GDP rather than a change in the structural balance.
General government gross debt in 2019 (52.10% of GDP) showed an upward trend, increasing by 2.09% compared to 2018 (59.32% of GDP). In 2020, it increased even more (by 17.22% to 522.10% of GDP), and, in 2021, it decreased by 7.53% (to 56.48% of GDP), which was more due to changes in GDP than changes in public debt.
The analysis carried out indicates a high risk of a reduction in financing for sustainable development in total from all sources (quantitative characteristics) in Asian countries. This is likely to be the reason for the slowdown in sustainable development in Asia. In 2019 (50.56 points), the Sustainable Development Index increased by 5.31% compared to 2018 (48.01 points). In 2020, the growth rate of this index slowed down and amounted to 4.91% (to 53.03 points), and, in 2021, it decreased by 0.12% (to 52.98 points).
According to
Table 5, total investment showed an upward trend in 2019, having increased by 1.66% compared to 2018. In 2020, it decreased by 3.46%, and, in 2021, it increased by 0.01% (remained practically unchanged).
General government net lending/borrowing in 2019 (−0.43% of GDP) decreased by 23.08% compared to 2018 (−0.35% of GDP). In 2020, it increased by 1445.79% (to −6.61% of GDP), and, in 2021, it decreased by 12.46% (to −5.79% of GDP), which was largely due to changes in GDP rather than changes in lending/borrowing.
The general government structural balance in 2019 (−1.13% of GDP) increased by 146.47% compared to 2018 (−0.46% of GDP). In 2020, it increased by 231.54% (to −3.74% of GDP), and, in 2021, it increased by 5.18% (to −3.93% of GDP), which was largely due to changes in GDP rather than a change in structural balance.
General government gross debt in 2019 (54.22% of GDP) showed a downward trend, decreasing by 2.63% compared to 2018 (55.68% of GDP). In 2020, it increased even more (by 20.16% up to 65.15% of GDP) and, in 2021, by 0.57% (up to 65.52% of GDP), which was more due to changes in GDP than changes in public debt.
The analysis carried out indicates a high risk of a reduction in financing for sustainable development in total from all sources (quantitative characteristics) in European countries. This was probably the reason for the slowdown in sustainable development in Europe. In 2019 (72.67 points), the Sustainable Development Index increased by 8.36% compared to 2018 (72.67 points). In 2020, the growth rate of this index slowed down and amounted to 1.20% (to 73.55 points), and, in 2021, it increased by 0.9% (to 74,027 points).
A comparative analysis of data by regions of the world showed that in all regions, the pandemic and the COVID-19 crisis caused a high risk of reduced financing for sustainable development in total across all sources. The highest risk is typical for Asian countries: the outflow of investments in 2021 (compared to 2020) in the countries of this region was the highest and amounted to −16.79% (other regions showed an inflow of investments in 2021), while for other indicators of financing, the rate of their growth in the regions of the world is similar.
The largest decline in the Sustainable Development Index in 2021 (compared to 2020) occurred in Africa (−3.24%). In the Americas and the Caribbean, as well as in Europe, there was a noticeable increase in government lending/borrowing in 2020, which likely made it possible to achieve macroeconomic financial stabilization as early as 2021. A delayed effect was also identified, which is that the reduction in opportunities and funding in 2020 led to a decrease in the Sustainable Development Index only in 2021. The general trends in all the considered indicators in the regions of the world generally coincide with global trends (
Figure 1).
It is noteworthy that Europe turned out to be the only region where there was, neither in 2020 nor even in 2021, no decrease in the Sustainable Development Index, which indicates highly effective financial risk management in Europe. The main difference between financial performances among regions of the world occurs in the area of investment. This suggests that investments form the basis of the financial risk of sustainable development. Consequently, the financial risks of sustainable development are highest in Africa and Asia.
To specify the cause-and-effect links of the change of the rate of sustainable development and to determine the contribution of each source of financing to the achievement of the results in the sphere of sustainable development based on the research model, we obtained the following results of the regression analysis (
Table 6).
According to
Table 6, the importance of private investment in achieving results in the sphere of sustainable development has increased. In 2018, an increase in private investment by 1% of GDP led to an increase in sustainable development results by 0.01 points, in 2019—by 0.12 points, and in 2021—already by 0.18 points. All conditions of the hypothesis are met:
res1(2021) >
res1(2018) (0.18 > 0.01);
res1(2021) > 0 (0.18 > 0);
res1(2018) > 0 (0.01 > 0).
The impact of general government net lending/borrowing on results in the sphere of sustainable development was reduced by the pandemic and the COVID-19 crisis: the regression coefficient decreased (modulo) from −0.52 in 2018 and −0.76 in 2019 to 0.31 in 2021. The influence of general government structural balance on results in the sphere of sustainable development increased under the influence of the pandemic and the COVID-19 crisis: the regression coefficient decreased (modulo) from −1.59 in 2018 and −0.21 in 2019 to −3.80 in 2021. The impact of general government gross debt on results in the sphere of sustainable development decreased under the influence of the pandemic and the COVID-19 crisis: the regression coefficient decreased (modulo) from 0.03 in 2018 and 0.07 in 2019 to 0.03 in 2021. This indicates that there is a risk of a reduction in the contribution of financing to progress in the implementation of the SDGs (a decline in the effectiveness of financing for sustainable development—a qualitative characteristic).
The sum of the regression coefficients (modulo) turned out to be the following:
- -
In 2018: 0.01 + 0.52 + 1.59 + 0.03 = 2.15;
- -
In 2019: 0.12 + 0.76 + 0.21 + 0.07 = 1.16;
- -
In 2020: 0.06 + 0.08 + 2.94 + 0.03 = 3.11;
- -
In 2021: 0.14 + 0.31 + 3.80 + 0.03 = 4.28.
The identified increase in the sum of the regression coefficients (by modulus) indicates an increase in the importance of financing for achieving results in the sphere of sustainable development. To assess the qualitative characteristics of private investment as a source of financing for sustainable development in the Decade of Action, the least-squares method, based on regression models from
Table 6, revealed that the pre-crisis (55.87/52.82 = 1.06) rate of sustainable development in 2021 (57.97 × 1.06 = 61.45 points in 2021 instead of the actual 57.61 points) could be achieved by increasing the volume of private investment by 125.95%: from 21.63% of GDP to 48.87% of GDP.
The found solution requires too much increase in the volume of private investment (by more than 30%), which indicates the need for a qualitative change in the essence of private investment—the transition to responsible investment (based on corporate social responsibility).
Let us add the results obtained at the global level with in-depth studies on the example of the regions of the world (
Table 7).
According to
Table 6, in Africa, the importance of private investment in achieving results in the sphere of sustainable development has increased. In 2018, an increase in private investment by 1% of GDP led to an increase in results in the sphere of sustainable development by 0.25 points, in 2019—already by 0.40 points, and in 2021—already by 0.47 points. The sum of the regression coefficients (modulo) in Africa was as follows:
- -
In 2018: 0.25 + 1.71 + 2.99 + 0.03 = 4.98;
- -
In 2019: 0.40 + 1.92 + 2.25 + 0.01 = 4.58;
- -
In 2020: 0.52 + 1.42 + 2.76 + 0.03 = 4.73;
- -
In 2021: 0.47 + 0.99 + 4.49 + 0.05 = 6.00.
The identified increase in the sum of the regression coefficients (by modulus) indicates an increase in the importance of financing for achieving results in the sphere of sustainable development in Africa. To assess the qualitative characteristics of private investment as a source of financing for sustainable development in the Decade of Action, the least-squares method, based on regression models from
Table 7, revealed that the pre-crisis (46.93/45.01 = 1.04) rate of sustainable development in 2021 (49.06 × 1.04 = 51.02 points in 2021 instead of the actual 47.47 points) could be achieved by increasing the volume of private investment by 37.21%: from 21.79% of GDP to 29.90% of GDP.
The found solution requires too much increase in the volume of private investment (by more than 30%), which indicates the need for a qualitative change in the essence of private investment—the transition to responsible investment (based on corporate social responsibility).
In America and the Caribbean, the importance of private investment for achieving results in the sphere of sustainable development has increased. In 2018, there was no positive contribution of private investment to the growth of sustainable development results (all regression coefficients for investment have a negative sign). Therefore, optimization is not available in this region. At the same time, the sum of the regression coefficients (modulo) in America and the Caribbean turned out to be as follows:
- -
In 2018: 1.30 + 0.26 + 2.30 + 0.17 = 4.03;
- -
In 2019: 1.01 + 0.40 + 2.91 + 0.18 = 4.50;
- -
In 2020: 1.46 + 2.44 + 4.70 + 0.09 = 8.69;
- -
In 2021: 1.00 + 1.03 + 4.79 + 0.14 = 6.96.
The identified increase in the sum of the regression coefficients (modulo), despite a slight decrease in 2021 compared to 2020, with an increase compared to 2018, indicates the growing importance of financing for achieving results in the sphere of sustainable development in America and the Caribbean. Therefore, in America and the Caribbean, it makes sense to maintain a project-based approach to sustainable development financial risk management.
In Asia, the importance of private investment in achieving results in the sphere of sustainable development has increased. In 2018, an increase in private investment by 1% of GDP led to an increase in results in the sphere of sustainable development by 0.04 points, in 2019—already by 0.10 points, and in 2021—already by 0.22 points. The sum of the regression coefficients (modulo) in Asia was as follows:
- -
In 2018: 0.04 + 0.72 + 0.93 + 0.11 = 1.80;
- -
In 2019: 0.10 + 0.80 + 1.79 + 0.28 = 2.97;
- -
In 2020: 0.17 + 0.93 + 1.59 + 0.11 = 2.80;
- -
In 2021: 0.22 + 0.15 + 1.36 + 0.20 = 1.93.
The identified increase in the sum of the regression coefficients (modulo) indicates an increase in the importance of financing for achieving results in the sphere of sustainable development in Asia. To assess the qualitative characteristics of private investment as a source of financing for sustainable development in the Decade of Action, the least-squares method, based on regression models from
Table 7, revealed that the pre-crisis (50.56/48.01 = 1.05) rate of sustainable development in 2021 (53.04 × 1.05 = 55.69 points in 2021 instead of the actual 52.98 points) could be achieved by increasing the volume of private investment by 57.28%: from 21.55% of GDP to 34.07% of GDP.
The found solution requires too much increase in the volume of private investment (by more than 30%), which indicates the need for a qualitative change in the essence of private investment—the transition to responsible investment (based on corporate social responsibility).
In Europe, the importance of private investment in achieving results in the sphere of sustainable development has increased. In 2018, an increase in private investment by 1% of GDP led to an increase in results in the sphere of sustainable development by −0.05 points, in 2019—already by 0.55 points, and in 2021—by 0.52 points. The sum of the regression coefficients (modulo) in Europe was as follows:
- -
In 2018: 0.05 + 1.69 + 2.27 + 0.07 = 4.08;
- -
In 2019: 0.32 + 0.92 + 0.37 + 0.02 = 1.63;
- -
In 2020: 0.55 + 0.75 + 0.84 + 0.00 = 2.14;
- -
In 2021: 0.52 + 0.62 + 1.35 + 0.01 = 2.50.
The identified increase in the sum of the regression coefficients (modulo), despite the decrease compared to 2018, while maintaining the overall upward trend, indicates an increase in the importance of financing for achieving results in the sphere of sustainable development in Europe. To assess the qualitative characteristics of private investment as a source of financing for sustainable development in the Decade of Action, the least-squares method, based on regression models from
Table 7, revealed that the pre-crisis (72.67/67.06 = 1.08) rate of sustainable development in 2021 (73.55 × 1.08 = 79.43 points in 2021 instead of the actual 74.27 points) could be achieved by increasing the volume of private investment by 43.95%: from 22.37% of GDP to 32.20% of GDP.
The found solution requires too much increase in the volume of private investment (by more than 30%), which indicates the need for a qualitative change in the essence of private investment—the transition to responsible investment (based on corporate social responsibility).
Based on the obtained results for improving financial risk management of sustainable development in the Decade of Action, we propose—as an alternative to the project-based approach—the program-targeted approach. Its scientific framework is set in the works of
Bordley et al. (
2015) and
Mitrofanova et al. (
2020).
The main provisions of the new approach, as applied to managing financial risks of sustainable development in the Decade of Action, are systematized and demonstrated in
Table 8.
According to
Table 8, the proposed program-targeted approach implies a less strict condition for the project implementation—the new approach can be applied in any economic environment, including unstable and unfavorable conditions (high financial risks are allowed). The practical manifestation of this during the financial risk management of sustainable development in the Decade of Action is the applicability of the approach to the conditions of uncertainty that are caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the recession of the world economy in the Decade of Action, based on N.D. Kondratiev’s model of economic cycles (with the increased—high—financial risks). This distinguishes the new (program-targeted) approach from the existing (project) approach, which applies only to stable conditions and allows the managing of only low financial risks.
The sources of financing (resources) in the proposed approach are flexible and differentiated; they are reconsidered in the process of the project implementation. The practical manifestation of this during financial risk management of sustainable development in the Decade of Action is that because of the COVID-19 crisis, government finances should be supplemented with corporate financing (private investments), which will allow the overcoming of the deficit of sustainable development financing. This distinguishes the new (program-targeted) approach from the existing (project) one, in which the main sources of financing are the resources of national state budgets.
The treatment of financial risks in the new approach is complex—it includes the change of the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of financing. The practical manifestation of this during the financial risk management of sustainable development in the Decade of Action is the increased attention during the Decade of Action to the quantitative (full-scale character of financing) and qualitative (responsible nature of investments) characteristics of financing of sustainable development. This distinguishes the new (program-targeted) approach from the existing (project) approach, which takes into account only the quantitative characteristics of financing (the amount of financing for sustainable development) when identifying financial risks.
The method of financial risk management in the proposed approach is the flexible volume of financing (quantitative characteristics), which is reconsidered depending on the change of the project’s needs and context. The practical manifestation of this during financial risk management of sustainable development in the Decade of Action is the increase—through the increase in private investments—of the volume of financing of (improvement of quantitative characteristics) of sustainable development in the Decade of Action due to the increased need for financing under the influence of the pandemic context. This distinguishes the new (program-targeted) approach from the existing (project) approach, in which the amount of funding is strictly fixed, and it is assumed that this (funding sufficiency) makes it possible to reduce the financial risks of sustainable development.
6. Conclusions
The results of the research demonstrated a high risk of reduction of sustainable development financing in aggregate from all sources (quantitative characteristics). Thus, total investment was reduced by 2.62%, general government net lending/borrowing grew by 201.40%, general government structural balance (deficit of the national budget) grew by 123.28%, and general government gross debt grew by 12.49% in 2021 compared to 2019.
This caused the decrease in the rate of sustainable development (the Sustainable Development Index grew in 2020 by 3.69% compared to 2019, but, in 2021, it was reduced by 0.60% compared to 2020) since the aggregate contribution of financing (from all sources) to the achievement of the results in the sphere of sustainable development grew from 1.16% in 2019 to 4.28% in 2021.
We also discovered the risk of reduction of the contribution of financing to progress in the implementation of the SDGs (reduction of effectiveness of sustainable development financing—qualitative characteristics). This is shown by the fact that the impact of general government net lending/borrowing on the results in the sphere of sustainable development was reduced under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and crisis: the regression coefficient reduced (in absolute value) from −0.70 in 2019 to 0.34 in 2021. The impact of general government gross debt on the results in the sphere of sustainable development was reduced under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and crisis: the regression coefficient reduced (in absolute value) from 0.07 in 2019 to 0.02 in 2021.
Therefore, the need for sustainable development financing in the Decade of Action is especially high, but the traditional source of this financing (national budgets) cannot fully satisfy this need. It should be replaced with a new perspective source—private investments, the significance of which for the achievement of results in the sphere of sustainable development grew from 0.01 in 2018 and 0.12 in 2019 to 0.18 in 2021.
An in-depth study and comparative analysis by regions of the world show that the countries of Europe have achieved the greatest success in the field of financial risk management of sustainable development. The financial risks of sustainable development are highest in Africa and Asia. The highest need for investment for financial risk management of sustainable development is observed in Asia (a 57.28% increase in investment is required compared to 2021). For comparison, this need in Europe is +43.985%, and, in African countries, it is the lowest and is estimated at 37.21%.
We also found an answer to this paper’s research question. The existing (project-based) approach to managing financial risks of sustainable development shows the reduced effectiveness at the start of the Decade of Action (2020–2021). The financial risks of sustainable development in the Decade of Action should be managed based on a new program-targeted approach, which will ensure the change of the qualitative (key role of private investments and an increase in their volume) and qualitative (use of corporate social responsibility—responsible investments) characteristics of sustainable development financing.
The prospects of improving the practice of managing financial risks of sustainable development in the Decade of Action include the transition to the new approach; its specifics features and advantages are as follows:
Applicability under the conditions of uncertainty, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the recession of the world economy (increased—high—financial risks);
Using—as the basis—the market mechanism and a more flexible source of financing, namely, corporate financing (private investments), which allows the overcoming of the deficit of government financing of sustainable development;
Improvement of the quantitative (full-scale character of financing) and qualitative (responsible nature of investments) characteristics of sustainable development financing;
Increase—through the increase in private investments—in the volume of financing (improvement of the quantitative characteristics) of sustainable development in the Decade of Action for the full-scale satisfaction of the need for financing under the influence of the pandemic context.
The contribution of the article to the literature lies, firstly, in the fact that, unlike the works of
Chams et al. (
2021),
Kolodiziev et al. (
2017),
Kwak and Kim (
2021), and
Park and Jang (
2021), the article shows that the financial risks of sustainable development are quite strongly differentiated among the regions of the world. They are highest in Asia and Africa. Therefore, in the Decade of Action, it is necessary to pay more attention to the peculiarities of the financial risks of sustainable development in each region of the world (continents). To do this, the author’s recommendations for increasing private investment are proposed to achieve the pre-pandemic pace of sustainable development in Africa, Asia, and Europe.
Secondly, in contrast to
Naji et al. (
2021) and
Niederman (
2021), a new program-targeted approach to managing the financial risks of sustainable development is recommended, the features and advantages of which are high adaptability (applicability to conditions of instability and high financial risks), high flexibility and reliance on an expanded resource base (private investment), a focus on the qualitative characterization of financial risks (the nature of financing), and the promotion of responsible investment (based on corporate social responsibility).
The theoretical significance of the results is due to the adaptation of the program-targeted approach to the specifics and needs of financial risk management of sustainable development in the Decade of Action. The practical significance of the conclusions is due to the improvement of the methodological framework of financial risk management of sustainable development and the support of the practical implementation of the SDGs in the Decade of Action.
As for limitations of the research, it should be noted that the Decade of Action has only recently started, and the authors’ recommendations are based on the assumption that the world economy will stay in the downward phase (implying a crisis) of the long wave of Kondratiev cycle until 2030. If this authors’ forecast does not come true, the perspectives of using the developed program-targeted approach to managing the financial risks of sustainable development in the Decade of Action will be limited by the phase of the current COVID-19 crisis.
Future studies should test the proposed approach and evaluate its effectiveness in the real world. Additionally, it would be expedient to test whether the authors’ forecast comes true and, depending on this, strengthen the scientific arguments of the preferred use of the project-based or the program-targeted approach to managing the financial risks of sustainable development in the Decade of Action.
It should also be noted that econometric modeling in America and the Caribbean has indicated the inapplicability of the proposed program-target approach in this region. Therefore, in America and the Caribbean, it is advisable to retain the project approach; the cause-and-effect relationships of sustainable development financial risk management in this region need further in-depth study in future case studies.