3.1. Quality Criteria for Strategic Planning Models
Assessing strategic planning models based on qualitative criteria by applying a multicriteria decision-making method, i.e., the FBWM, is the main part of our study since managers and owners of SMEs seek the most appropriate model for their organizations.
The effectiveness of the strategic planning process is considered a main factor of resulting strategic plans. A poorly designed planning process will usually not result in a high-quality strategic plan [
22].
According to Mellalieu [
23], strategic planning should address strategic issues in a well-founded way and include the communication with employees who need to be informed about the planning process. The following factors should be considered during an auditing to evaluate the quality of strategic planning:
Strategic planning should adequately address all strategic questions, and objectives to seize crucial opportunities and defeat crucial threats.
Strategic planning should determine and prioritize key tasks.
Strategic planning should take care for risks and uncertainty.
Strategic planning should include monitoring and control during strategy implementation.
Rumelt [
24] proposed the following criteria for evaluating strategic planning:
Consistency: Strategic planning should take care for consistency among objectives and policies.
Consonance: The strategic planning process should allow for flexibility and adequacy in response to the company environment, problems and challenges.
Advantage: Strategic planning should focus on competitive advantages.
Feasibility: The planning process should consider of organizational resources and related constraints.
According to Cox [
25], a strategic planning should be based on the following features:
Priority: It should be possible to modify strategic plans in response to changing requirements or available resources.
Measurability: Strategic planning should have measurable goals.
Flexibility and responsiveness: The strategic plan should consider risks and uncertainties, new opportunities, or adjustments in resource availability.
Simplicity: The planning process should be short and simple.
After reviewing the literature, the criteria that should be considered for assessing strategic planning models in our study are as follows:
Formality: Strategic planning includes all key elements (vision, mission, values, strategic issues, strategic objectives, and performance measurement) [
22,
26]).
Clarity: According to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), clarity is based on the requirement that data and metadata are presented in a clear and comprehensible manner [
27]. Therefore, we interpret clarity as the criterion that strategic objectives and strategies are clearly defined in a strategic planning model.
Measurability: Mellalieu [
23] assumes measurability to be a key factor in strategic planning as it fundamental to any control system with respect to the appropriate implementation of the strategy. According to Cox [
25], strategic planning is appropriate if objectives are measurable, achievable, and time sensitive. Therefore, we interpret measurability as the ability of a strategic planning model to measure, monitor, and evaluate strategic objectives.
Objectivity: According to the Quality Assurance Framework, objectivity is interpreted as the extent to which strategic planning meets the real needs of clients. Objectivity is also referred to as reliability and serviceability by the World Bank and the UNESCO Institute. Hiraga et al. [
28] considered objectivity is the ability of a strategic plan to clearly point out the outcomes of the strategic objectives. In the context of our study, objectivity is considered the criterion that reflects the reliability and serviceability of a strategic planning model.
Coverage: Coverage considers to what extent the strategic planning addresses critical issues, opportunities, and threats as identified in the analysis phase. Rumelt [
24] divided the coverage into the dimensions feasibility and consonance. While feasibility is the ability of a strategic plan to utilize organizational resources to solve strategic issues, consonance is interpreted as adaptability of the strategic plan to the change in the company environment. Mellalieu [
23] suggested that the objectives and goals in strategic planning should take sufficient advantage of available opportunities to overcome threats. In our study, coverage refers to the comprehensive inclusion of key elements such as the company environment, strategic issues, strategies, and action plans into the strategic planning model.
Consistency: Consistency is related to the flexibility of strategic planning and its adaptability to environmental changes [
29]. Consistency in strategic planning may help organizations overcome competitors’ reactions [
30] and other threats resulting from an uncertain environment [
31,
32]. In addition, flexibility in strategic planning will help an organization, take advantage of being a first mover before its competitors [
33], and support improvements in capability and profitability [
34,
35]. Thus, we interpret consistency as the criterion that represents the adaptability of a strategic planning model concerning environmental changes.
3.3. Using the Fuzzy Best Worst Method in the Assessment of the Strategic Planning Models
We applied a new MCDM technique “FBWM” to analyze the problem and find the prioritization of strategic planning models in Iranian manufacturing SMEs. In MCDM techniques, the assessment criteria should be specified first. Next, weights of criteria should be determined. Then, each alternative should be assessed based on each criterion. Finally, the final priority of alternatives will be provided by multiplying the weights of criteria and alternatives.
The data required for the analysis was collected in interviews with thirteen managers from SMEs.
Table 2 provides further information about the managers who participated in the interviews.
Based on the fuzzy best-worst method, at first, the best (
) and the worst (
) criteria were determined by managers. Next, the best criterion to the others and others to the worst were compared by managers based on a 5-point Likert scale of linguistic terms such as Equally Important (EI), Weakly Important (WI), Fairly Important (FI), Very Important (VI), and Absolutely Important (AI). Then, the managers’ verbal assessment should be converted into a fuzzy rating (using triangular fuzzy numbers is a frequently used approach).
Table 3 represents the transformation of linguistic terms.
We decided not to use questionnaires for the respective elicitation of information due to the extent of strategic planning models and criteria descriptions and the fact that the managers are usually busy. Instead, we interviewed the managers to collect the required data. The respective calculation procedure is described as follows:
To determine the best and worst criteria, a sheet with the descriptions of the criteria was submitted to the managers and asked them to read the descriptions and reply which of the criteria is the “best” criterion and which one is the “worst” in evaluating strategic planning models. Then, the managers were requested to evaluate the importance of the best criterion for others and the worst for others using the linguistic terms.
Table 4 and
Table 5 represent the judgment comparison of the best criterion to the others and the others to the worst of the managers.
The consistency ratio for fuzzy best-worst group decision-making could be calculated as described in [
44]. The method applies input-based consistency measurements. It is a simple method that provides immediate feedback. The formula for the input-based consistency ratio is as follows:
where
: global input-based consistency ratio for all criteria
: level of local consistency related to the criterion j
the fuzzy value of the best criterion compared to criterion j
the fuzzy value of criterion j compared to the worst criterion
The basic operational rules of triangular fuzzy numbers are presented (see Equations (A1)–(A6) in
Appendix A).
Applying graded mean integration representation (GMIR), the triangular fuzzy numbers can be transformed into crisp values (Equation (3)) [
45].
: real fuzzy number
: lower bound
: median
: upper bound
The consistency assessment of outcomes is given in
Table 6 of the consistency ratio threshold according to [
46].
Let the scales of the row dimension in
Table 6 indicate the estimated size
. Since
may not be an integer and the row dimension data in the database is wholly integer, it can approximate the integer value to produce
.
Using Equations (1) and (2), the consistency ratio of the pairwise comparison for Manager 1 is calculated.
It is found that there is sufficient consistency in the judgments of Manager 1, comparing the provided results with the values in
Table 6.
Table 7 lists the findings of the global input-based consistency ratio for all criteria as well as the degree of local consistency for all managers.
There is sufficient consistency in all the managers’ judgments by comparing the obtained values in
Table 7 with the values in
Table 6.
The following linear programming model is proposed to find criteria weights [
36]:
where
,
,
,
,
, and
.
: indices of the decision-makers (managers)
: indices of the criteria
: indices of the alternatives
B: index of the best criterion
W: index of the worst criterion
: the fuzzy weight of the best criterion for the i-th decision-maker
: the fuzzy weight of the worst criterion for the i-th decision-maker
: the fuzzy dependent variable of consistency ratio for the i-th decision-maker
: the fuzzy weight of criterion j for the i-th decision-maker
aggregated weight of criterion j
the fuzzy value of the best criterion compared to the j-th criterion for the i-th decision-maker
the fuzzy value of the j-th criterion compared to the worst criterion for the i-th decision-maker.
Suppose
= (
, the model can be transformed as follows:
The final weights of the criteria were calculated by applying Lingo 18.0 software. The results are shown in
Table 8 and
Figure 1.
Analysis of the criteria shows that C1 received the highest weight (0.202), while C4 received the lowest weight (0.114). In other words, from the perspective of the managers who were questioned, formality is the most significant criterion and objectivity is the least important criterion. The following relationship is found for the final criteria weights: µ1 ≻ µ2 ≻ µ3 ≻ µ6 ≻ µ5 ≻ µ4.
Equations (4)–(6) can be used to determine the final fuzzy values of the strategic planning models. According to Amiri et al. [
36] and Kheybari et al. [
47], the normalized value of alternative l (
for criterion j assigned by the i-th decision-maker for positive and negative criteria should be determined using Equations (5) and (6).
where
: aggregated weight of criterion j.
: the normalized value of the alternative l for criterion j assigned by i-th decision-maker.
: the value of alternative l for criterion j for the i-th decision-maker.
Table 9 indicate the managers’ point of view regarding the assessment of each strategic planning model based on the predetermined criteria. The detailed assessment of the Bryson model is represented in
Table 9. Similar analyses (not shown here in details) were conducted for the Wright model, the Wheelen model, the model by Hill and Jones, the model by Bowman and Asch, and David’s model.
Following a standard approach, the linguistic terms are then converted to fuzzy triangular numbers by applying
Table 10. As a result, the fuzzy values of each strategic planning model based on each criterion are determined.
The normalization of alternative values in relation to each criterion comes next. Equation (5) is used for normalization because all criteria are positive. Using Equation (4), the final rank of the strategic planning models would be determined after normalizing the values.
By integrating all the fuzzy values, the final fuzzy rank of strategic planning models are calculated. In line with [
41,
44], the geometric mean is applied in our study to incorporate the fuzzy values of the strategic planning models.
The geometric average is defined as the product of the n-th root of the products of values, where n is the number of values. A set of values
is described by its geometric average, GA, calculated as follows:
Applying the geometric mean, the final fuzzy value of alternatives is shown in the
Figure 2.
Figure 2 allows for identifying the ranges of evaluation for the six considered strategic planning models. It can be interpreted as follows: Considering the upper values of models, the strategic planning models are prioritized as follows, Wright ≻ Bryson ≻ Bowman and Asch ≻ Wheelen ≻ Hill and Jones ≻ David. Using modal values, the priority of the models is Bryson ≈ David ≻ Hill and Jones ≻ Wright ≈ Bowman and Asch ≻ Wheelen, while applying lower value provides a different prioritization, David ≻ Hill and Jones ≻ Bryson ≻ Wheelen ≈ Bowman and Asch ≻ Wright.
The defuzzification of fuzzy results is necessary to reach a crisp value of alternatives. The final value of alternatives is calculated by using Equation (7) (see
Table 11).
Considering the values in
Table 11, the final rank of strategic planning models is as follows:
Wright ≻ Bryson ≻ Bowman and Asch ≻ David ≈ Hill and Jones ≻ Wheelen.