1. Introduction
Food is of great importance to the national economy and people’s livelihood, and food security is an important foundation for the long-term stability of a country. Food provided a material foundation for the development of human society and was an important cornerstone for ensuring national security [
1]. Due to various factors such as climate change and regional conflicts, global food security is facing formidable challenges [
2]. Food security is a fundamental issue crucial to human survival. As one of the most populous countries in the world, China is taking effective actions and playing an active role in ensuring global food security. The Chinese government has always attached great importance to food security, which is not only related to economic development and social stability but also to national security and self-reliance. Improving the comprehensive efficiency of grain production is not only the core of the “agricultural powerhouse” strategy defined in the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China but also one of the main objectives of the Central Document No. 1 in 2023, which emphasizes the stable production and supply of food and important agricultural products. In 2022, the total grain output in China reached 686.53-million tons, an increase of 3.68-million tons compared to 2021, with a growth rate of 0.5%. This marks the seventh consecutive year that China’s total grain output has remained above 650-million tons, achieving a continuous bumper harvest. However, as the level of economic development continues to increase and consumption patterns constantly upgrade, the demand for grain in China has been increasing year by year, and the situation of a “tight balance” between supply and demand of grain will continue. At the same time, the continuous increase in grain production has put greater pressure on resources and the environment, leading to serious degradation of water and soil resources and a shift of production focus to the north and west, exacerbating the spatial mismatch of water and soil resources. In addition, factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, natural disasters, and unstable international situations have compounded the challenges faced by food security in the new era [
3].
Since 2000, the sown area of grain in China has gradually decreased, directly resulting in a decrease in grain crop production. Combined with the impact of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (in brief SARS) epidemic and severe natural disasters, the sown area of grain dropped to below 100-million hectares, and grain production was 4306.9-million tons, a decrease of about 5.8% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, grain consumption reached 4881 million tons, resulting in a production-consumption gap of 41.47-million tons. The production of the three major grain crops was lower than the consumption, indicating an imbalance between supply and demand [
4]. In response to the increasing trend of the production-demand gap in grain, at the end of 2003, the Ministry of Finance issued the “Opinions on Reforming and Improving Policies and Measures for Comprehensive Agricultural Development”, which further defined the scope of agricultural and grain main production areas based on the major indicators such as the yield of major agricultural products in various regions. Thirteen provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions), including Heilongjiang (including the Provincial Agricultural Reclamation Bureau), Jilin, Liaoning (excluding Dalian), Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Henan, Shandong (excluding Qingdao), Jiangsu, Anhui, Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi were designated as main grain-production areas. Since the implementation of the policy for grain-main production areas, these areas have gradually become the core areas of national grain production and important guarantee zones for national food security, playing a significant role in national grain production and security [
5]. In 2021, the grain production in these 13 main grain-production areas reached 52,597.5-million tons, accounting for 77.03% of the total grain output in the country, an increase of 4.36% compared to 72.67% in 2004. The sown area of grain in the main production areas was 88.07-million hectares, accounting for 74.86% of the total sown area in the country, an increase of 5.59% compared to 69.27% in 2004. It can be seen that the stability of grain supply in the main production areas directly affects the overall national food security.
The international conceptual definition of food security has undergone a developmental process from a macro to a micro perspective [
6]. In 1974, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization first defined food security as “we should ensure that anyone anywhere can get enough food for survival and health in the future” [
7]. The definition of food security, as agreed upon at the 1996 World Food Summit, contains four aspects: food, access, use, and stability. In 2012, the FAO updated the definition of food security, completing the development from only meeting survival needs to meeting positive and healthy living and food preferences [
8].
Existing studies have mainly focused on estimating the contributions of main grain-production area policies to China’s food security from the perspective of grain supply quantity, suggesting that since the establishment of main grain-production areas, China’s grain production, sown area, and yield per unit area have all shown significant growth [
9,
10,
11,
12]. However, food security is not solely dependent on grain production. Grain production and the sown area are just as important indicators of the food-security strategy. In the new era, ensuring food security requires considering multiple goals, such as quantity security, nutritional security, ecological security, and capacity security. It is difficult to comprehensively measure the overall impact of main grain-production area policies on food security by considering only a single factor. Therefore, this study aims to investigate whether the main grain-production area policies have had a positive impact on national food security from multiple perspectives, as well as the mechanisms and regional heterogeneity of their effects.
To achieve this, this study first constructs an indicator system for evaluating food security and uses the entropy method to measure the comprehensive food-security index of 30 policies implemented in China from 1997 to 2020 in order to assess the level of food security in each province. Based on this, taking the establishment of main grain-production areas in 2004 as a quasi-natural experiment, this study adopts a difference-in-differences research method to comprehensively evaluate the effects of main grain-production area policies on food security in order to meet the requirements of high-quality development of the grain industry in the new era. The main academic contributions of this study are as follows: (1) By using the entropy method, the food-security index is more accurately calculated from multiple perspectives and levels, and the differences and trends in food security levels between main grain-production areas and non-main production areas are analyzed. (2) The main grain-production area policies and the pre-existing food-security index, which measures the degree of food security, are directly incorporated into the same research framework. By employing the difference-in-differences method, a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of main grain-production area policies in ensuring food security is conducted. (3) Using a mediation effect model, the study examines the pathways through which main grain-production area policies ensure food security and comprehensively analyzes the mechanisms of the policies.
5. Conclusions and Policy Implications
This study utilizes the grain main production area policies in 2004 as a quasi-natural experiment. By using the entropy method, it constructs a food-security index based on five dimensions to measure the level of food security in China. The study evaluates the effectiveness of the main grain-production area policies in ensuring food security, explores the mechanisms through which these policies work, and examines the potential for their continued effectiveness in the future.
The main conclusions of this study can be summarized as follows. Firstly, using the entropy method, a food-security index is constructed, and the contributions of the provinces designated as main grain-production areas to food security are analyzed. The results show that these provinces have made significant contributions to food security in China, especially in non-grain main production areas. Secondly, the baseline regression results demonstrate that the main grain-production area policies have had a significant positive effect on the level of food security in China, and this effect has been increasing in recent years. Thirdly, the mechanism analysis results indicate that the main grain-production area policies primarily work through expanding the scale of grain cultivation and improving the land-management scale.
These conclusions have important implications for adjusting main grain-production area policies in the new era. Firstly, in the face of increasing uncertainties in the international situation and the rapid industrialization and urbanization domestically, the main grain-production areas play a crucial role in ensuring food security in China. It is necessary to introduce systematic policies that protect and support the provinces designated as main grain-production areas. These policies should not only address the political importance of ensuring food security but also include a range of interest compensation measures for these provinces to ensure their enthusiasm and proactiveness in safeguarding grain production. Secondly, the main grain-production area policies should focus on both quantity and quality. It is essential to prioritize the expansion of grain-cultivation scale and continue promoting the professionalization, intensification, and appropriate scale of grain production. This can be achieved through policies that support and incentivize large-scale and efficient grain production. Attention should also be given to improving the quality and safety of grain products, keeping up with the changing demands of consumers.
In conclusion, the establishment of main grain-production areas has significantly contributed to ensuring food security in China. To further enhance food security, it is necessary to develop comprehensive policies, focus on both quantity and quality, strengthen inter-provincial cooperation, and invest in agricultural technology and innovation. These measures will contribute to the sustainable development of main grain-production areas and ensure long-term food security in China.
There are still several shortcomings in the study. First, there is no clear definition of “food-security index” in academic circles. In the study, we use the inter-provincial panel data from 1997 to 2020 to synthesize the food-security index on the basis of constructing a food-security evaluation system, but there are some functional variables that cannot be included in the index system, such as the nutrient intake, the excessive microorganisms, and the incidence of heavy metal pollution. Due to the limitations imposed by data availability, the food-security index can be further improved. Second, our study concentrates on the effect of safeguarding food security in China, and the reverse side of the main grain-producing areas policy is barely analyzed. Therefore, in the future, various factors can be included in the study so as to deepen and sharpen the research of constructing a complete framework of the main grain-producing areas policy.