A Counting Process Approach for Trend Assessment of Drought Condition
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data
2.2. Data Preparation for Trend Analysis
2.3. Statistical Tests for Trend Analysis
2.3.1. Mann–Kendall Trend Test
2.3.2. Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) with Power Law Trend Test
3. Results
3.1. Differences between the Two Methods
- 1 for positive trend, i.e., the increasing of drought episodes
- 0 for non-significant trend
- for negative trend, i.e., the decreasing of drought episodes
3.2. Characterizing Trend Results by Drought Risk Class
4. Discussion
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
SPEI | Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index |
PDSI | Palmer Drought Severity Index |
NHPP | Non Homogeneous Poisson Process |
SPI | Standardized Precipitation Index |
GEV | Generalized Extreme Value Distribution |
CRU | Climatic Research Unit |
MK | Mann–Kendall |
EDI | Effective Drought Index |
CMI | Crop Moisture Index |
SWSI | Surface Water Supply Index |
Appendix A
- /Dati (where to download CRU data)
- /Outputs
- /Plots
- (1)
- DroughtIndexGenerator.sh (parent)
- Look for the last CRU version among those in /Data then launch the childs DryMask.sh and *.R to compute SPI and SPEI for each grid cell (the outputs is a NetCDF file)
- The default SPEI time scales are set to 3, 4, 6, 12, 24, if they need to be changed in CRU_SPEI_calculation.R file
- The needed functions are in TrendFunctions.R
- DryMask.sh (child) set to NA the whole values of time series where yearly average precipitation is less than 73 mm (0.2 mm per day by 365 days) to guarantee the presence of missing values in the SPEI computation
- (2)
- DroughtTrendTest-Generator.sh (parent) (ONLY FOR SPEI)
- Check in /Outputs/../ if time series of SPEI have been generated
- Launch CRU_SPEI_TrendAnalysis.R to compute the trend analysis
- The outputs is a NetCDF file composed of four layers (Nhpp, MK, MK-classic, Difference Nhpp-MK), each one having −1, 0, or +1 values. Notice that an increasing trend of drought events is marked by −1 fo M-K whilst 1 for Nhpp.
- Another output is composed of the maps of the trend results (in /Plots)
- (1)
- Include ./ in the PATH
- (2)
- Add the bash command to call for the correspondent shell before the file name: e.g., nohup bash DroughtIndexGenerator.sh &
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Class | SPEI Values |
---|---|
Moderately dry | −1 to −1.49 |
Severely dry | −1.50 to −1.99 |
Extremely dry | −2 and less |
Dry Risk Class | SPEI Values |
---|---|
Drought | −1 and less |
Moderate | −1 to −1.49 |
Severe | −1.50 to −1.99 |
Severe+Extreme | −1.50 and less |
January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPEI-3 | ||||||||||||
SPEI-6 | ||||||||||||
SPEI-12 | ||||||||||||
SPEI-24 |
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Di Giuseppe, E.; Pasqui, M.; Magno, R.; Quaresima, S. A Counting Process Approach for Trend Assessment of Drought Condition. Hydrology 2019, 6, 84. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6040084
Di Giuseppe E, Pasqui M, Magno R, Quaresima S. A Counting Process Approach for Trend Assessment of Drought Condition. Hydrology. 2019; 6(4):84. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6040084
Chicago/Turabian StyleDi Giuseppe, Edmondo, Massimiliano Pasqui, Ramona Magno, and Sara Quaresima. 2019. "A Counting Process Approach for Trend Assessment of Drought Condition" Hydrology 6, no. 4: 84. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6040084
APA StyleDi Giuseppe, E., Pasqui, M., Magno, R., & Quaresima, S. (2019). A Counting Process Approach for Trend Assessment of Drought Condition. Hydrology, 6(4), 84. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6040084