1. Introduction
The Western Desert of Iraq is a large arid region that has suffered from severe water shortage, not only due to its climatic conditions but also due to a lack of water resource planning and management [
1,
2]. This area experiences brief, high-intensity rainfall that occurs mainly within a short period of time [
3]. Evaporation further diminishes the already insufficient water supply [
4]. Rainwater harvesting has emerged as an important tool for water conservation. Rainwater harvesting can provide safe, accessible, and affordable water for drinking, agriculture, livestock, small industries, and domestic uses [
5,
6].
There are six important factors that should be considered when selecting a rainwater harvesting site: hydrology (rainfall–runoff relationships and intermittent watercourses), climate (rainfall), soil (texture, structure, and depth), agronomy (crop characteristics), topography (land slope), and socio-economic conditions (population density, workforce, people’s priorities, people’s experiences with rainwater harvesting, land tenure, water laws, accessibility, and related costs) [
7]. Trying to take all of these factors into account makes selecting a site more difficult and time consuming, especially when a large watershed is involved [
8]. The selection of any rainwater harvesting site is a decision-making process that involves analyzing large data sets. In general, data related to the environment and water resources are geospatial [
9,
10]. Therefore, the comprehensive use of a geographic information system (GIS) can provide the tools needed to facilitate information integration [
11]. The process of site selection using GIS techniques focuses on combining specific maps based on predetermined criteria [
12]. The combination of data processing and visual representations of this data in GIS can help with multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and help decision makers make important choices [
13,
14]. Geospatial data and GIS techniques are integrated in multicriteria analysis (MCA), which has been used in many studies that have focused on selecting optimal sites for rainwater harvesting (RWH) in arid and semi-arid regions [
15,
16,
17,
18,
19,
20,
21,
22,
23,
24,
25].
Many MCA approaches entail selecting, ranking, and comparing the most suitable policy options according to the chosen criteria. These approaches differ in the type of data they can handle (quantitative, qualitative, or mixed) and the decision rule they follow (compensatory, partial-compensatory, and non-compensatory) [
26]. Several researchers have used comparative studies of MCDA to address problems in water resource management. These studies have shown that multicriteria decision analysis is an effective method to use when making decisions about water resource management, and researchers found that there was no benefit to using one MCDA method over another. Unfortunately, there is no guideline to follow when deciding which method to use for a given problem—the choice remains subjective. Furthermore, each method may produce different rankings [
27]. Given these drawbacks, researchers should use more than one MCDM method in order to enhance the selection process [
28]. The robustness of an MCA result depends on the (un)certainty of the information being used for the selected criteria, on the priorities given to the criteria (the weights or importance), and the extent to which these weights are commonly agreed upon by stakeholders. Sensitivity analysis can be used to check the robustness of the result for changes in scores and/or weights.
The main objective of this study was to present a methodology based on geospatial data and GIS integrated with the AHP, fuzzy AHP, ROM, and variance inverse methods to aid in selecting optimum sites for rainwater harvesting in the Wadi Horan and improve the decision-making process. To assess the uncertainty and robustness of the output results, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to define the success of the application in ranking potential rainwater harvesting sites. Thus, the sensitivity analysis was used to determine the reliability of the models by assessing uncertainties in the output results. The highlight of this methodology is that the area–volume curve for the RWH sites was developed using GIS to extract four main indexes: evaporation, cost–benefit, sediment, and hydrology.
3. Results and Discussion
In
Table 6, the decision maker’s opinion is compared for each of the four main criteria: “Eva,” “Ben,” “Sed,” and “Hyd”. The “Eva” criterion was given vital importance in AHP, fuzzy-AHP, ROM, and variance inverse (VI) and weighted 60%, 45%, 40%, and 34%, respectively. The “Ben,” criterion was given weights of 20% in AHP, 24% in fuzzy-AHP, 30% in ROM, and 28% in VI. The “Sed” criterion was weighted 11% in AHP, 18% in fuzzy-AHP, 20% in ROM, and 20% in VI, while the “Hyd” criterion was given less importance as compared to other criteria: 9% in AHP, 13% in fuzzy-AHP, 10% in ROM, and 18% in VI. It should be noted that the evaporation index had the highest weight followed by the cost–benefit, sediment, and hydrology index, as presented in all methods (
Table 6). This was reasonable because it represented the nature of the study area, where evaporation was the major issue in the arid region.
Table 7 also showed that the difference between the best value and value per site for evaporation criterion will have a small standard deviation or variance and, therefore, should be weighted more (retained closer to its value in the evaporation indexes).
A description of the results is given in
Table 7.
Table 7 shows that the value of the indices was not on the same scale. Therefore, once all the values were standardized, these methods were weighted. Standardization or normalization was calculated by assigning the same dimensionless continuous scale (from 0 to 1). In the first method, equal weight was assigned to all indices in the ranking process. This method was simple and used to compare the AHP, fuzzy-AHP, ROM, and VI methods.
Index value summation refers to the score of each site, giving the ranking where the highest summation was ranked first.
Table 8 shows that site no. 6 is the best location for rainwater harvesting structures. ROM, AHP, fuzzy-AHP, and VI gave similar results for site ranking order. However, the AHP results were closer to the ROM result as compared to the other methods.
Table 8 also shows good consistency of indices for all sites. Although there was an agreement between AHP, fuzzy-AHP, ROM, and VI in the priority sequence of indices, it was still necessary to determine the optimal weight selection. The VI is a statistical method, which determines the weight based on the value of each index and is more appropriate than AHP, fuzzy-AHP, and ROM for site ranking. AHP, fuzzy-AHP, and ROM are methods that depend on the decision maker’s judgment, which has some underlying uncertainties.
Sensitivity analysis was performed to define the reliability of models by assessing uncertainty in outputs. The plot of sensitivity analysis against the rank is illustrated in
Figure 4.
For all methods, evaporation was more effective than other indicators, as shown in
Figure 5. The “Eva” criterion showed significant effectiveness in AHP (68%), fuzzy-AHP (67%), ROM (52%), and VI (69%). These results reflect the nature of the arid study area where evaporation was the major issue. The “Sed” criterion gave less effectiveness than “Eva” were the values were 17% for AHP, 19% for fuzzy-AHP, 21% for ROM, and 12% for VI. Meanwhile, the “Hyd” criterion gave the effectiveness of 12% for AHP, 12% for fuzzy-AHP, 16% for ROM, and 9% for VI. Although the AHP and fuzzy-AHP approaches gave the “Ben” criterion weights of 20% and 24%, respectively, these methods provided less effectiveness for the “Ben” criterion in the ranking process—3% and 2%, respectively. This is because the criticality may cause a major change in the final solution. As shown in
Table 7, the difference between the best value and value per site for "Ben” criterion will have a small standard deviation or variance, as compared to “Hyd” and the “Eva", and therefore, it has more effectiveness for the “Ben” criterion in the ranking process for the VI method and less effectiveness in the AHP and fuzzy-AHP approaches for the ranking process. The ROM and VI methods affected the ranking priority and considered all the criteria that were sensitive in affecting the different levels in the ranking process, as compared to the AHP and fuzzy-AHP methods. Therefore, the statistical method was the most appropriate method for the study criteria that were sensitive in affecting the different levels in the ranking process, compared to the AHP and fuzzy-AHP methods. Therefore, the statistical method is the most appropriate method for this study.
4. Conclusions
This research presented a case study integrating GIS and four methods of multicriteria analysis: AHP, fuzzy-AHP, ROM, and the statistical (variance inverse) method in identifying potential sites for rainwater harvesting. The present study found that ArcGIS was a very useful tool for integrating diverse information to find suitable sites for harvesting rainwater. ArcGIS was a flexible, time-saving, and cost-effective tool for screening large areas for their suitability of RWH intervention. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the reliability of models by assessing uncertainty in outputs. The “Eva” criterion showed significant effectiveness in AHP (68%), fuzzy-AHP (67%), ROM (52%), and VI (69%). The “Sed” criterion showed less effectiveness than “Eva” where these values were 17% for AHP, 19% for fuzzy-AHP, 21% for ROM, and 12% for VI. Meanwhile, the “Hyd” criterion showed the effectiveness of 12% for AHP, 12% for fuzzy-AHP, 16% for ROM, and 9% for VI. Although the AHP and fuzzy-AHP approaches gave the “Ben” criterion weights of 20% and 24%, respectively, these methods provided less effectiveness for the “Ben” criterion in the ranking process—3% and 2%, respectively. This is because the criticality may cause a major change in the final solution. The ROM and VI methods affected the ranking priority and considered all the criteria that were sensitive in affecting the different levels in the ranking process, as compared to the AHP and fuzzy-AHP methods. Therefore, the statistical method is the most appropriate method for this study.
Finally, the use of GIS and remote sensing (RS) in water resource planning and management is significant in the development of remote areas and should use more than one MCDM method to enhance the selection process. Sensitivity analysis also proved that the proposed method is suitable to be used for RWH site selection in arid regions.
The analysis as presented, however, provides a valuable initial screening of large areas and can easily be modified to incorporate other criteria or information with other spatial resolutions.