Prediction of Suitable Habitat Distribution of Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis in the World and China under Climate Change
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. The Distribution Points of C. pullmanensis
2.2. Environmental Factor Variables
2.3. Construction and Accuracy Evaluation of the MaxEnt Model
2.3.1. Parameter Optimization of Maximum Entropy Model
2.3.2. Classification of Potentially Suitable Areas
2.4. Statistical and Spatial Analysis
2.4.1. Calculating Distribution Shifts
2.4.2. Centroid Migration
3. Results
3.1. Assessment of the Model’s Accuracy
3.2. Environmental Variable Analysis for the Identification of the Predicted Potentially Appropriate Area of C. pullmanensis
3.3. Current Potentially Suitable Habitats of C. pullmanensis in the World and China
3.3.1. Global Suitable Habitats under Current Climate Scenario Models
3.3.2. Current Potentially Suitable Habitats of C. pullmanensis in China
3.4. Future Potentially C. pullmanensis Habitats in the World and China
3.4.1. Global Suitable Areas under Future Climate Scenario Models
3.4.2. Potentially Suitable Habitats for C. pullmanensis Based on Future Climatic Scenarios in China
3.5. Centroid Migration of Potential Suitable areas for C. pullmanensis Based on Future Climatic Scenarios
4. Discussion
4.1. Accuracy of MaxEnt after Optimization
4.2. The Effect of Environmental Factors on the Distribution of C. pullmanensis
4.3. Changes in the Distribution of C. pullmanensis in the Future
4.4. Limitations of SDM in Predicting Species Distribution
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Climate Scenario | Period | Centroid Coordinates | Direction | Migration Distance (between Two Adjacent Decades)/km | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Longitude /° E | Latitude /° N | ||||
Current | 1970–2000 | 89.552582 | 41.076586 | ||
SSP126 | 2021–2040/2030s | 89.847418 | 40.967573 | Southeast | 3.03 |
2041–2060/2050s | 90.188925 | 41.246166 | Northeast | 63.5 | |
2061–2080/2070s | 90.559061 | 41.08451 | Northeast | 97.1 | |
2081–2100/2090s | 90.218878 | 41.016473 | Northeast | 64.5 | |
SSP370 | 2021–2040/2030s | 90.082805 | 41.152546 | Northeast | 51.6 |
2041–2060/2050s | 90.440685 | 40.959847 | Southeast | 86.4 | |
2061–2080/2070s | 90.73097 | 41.03039 | Northeast | 113.8 | |
2081–2100/2090s | 90.948488 | 40.901504 | Northeast | 135.7 | |
SSP585 | 2021–2040/2030s | 91.013858 | 41.113851 | Northeast | 141 |
2041–2060/2050s | 90.324757 | 40.906896 | Northeast | 76.3 | |
2061–2080/2070s | 90.662871 | 40.90278 | Southeast | 108.4 | |
2081–2100/2090s | 91.872354 | 40.936859 | Southeast | 224.2 |
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Yan, C.; Hao, H.; Wang, Z.; Sha, S.; Zhang, Y.; Wang, Q.; Kang, Z.; Huang, L.; Wang, L.; Feng, H. Prediction of Suitable Habitat Distribution of Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis in the World and China under Climate Change. J. Fungi 2023, 9, 739. https://doi.org/10.3390/jof9070739
Yan C, Hao H, Wang Z, Sha S, Zhang Y, Wang Q, Kang Z, Huang L, Wang L, Feng H. Prediction of Suitable Habitat Distribution of Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis in the World and China under Climate Change. Journal of Fungi. 2023; 9(7):739. https://doi.org/10.3390/jof9070739
Chicago/Turabian StyleYan, Chengcai, Haiting Hao, Zhe Wang, Shuaishuai Sha, Yiwen Zhang, Qingpeng Wang, Zhensheng Kang, Lili Huang, Lan Wang, and Hongzu Feng. 2023. "Prediction of Suitable Habitat Distribution of Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis in the World and China under Climate Change" Journal of Fungi 9, no. 7: 739. https://doi.org/10.3390/jof9070739