Enhancing SWOT Analysis with DEMATEL and AHP for NbS and ES in Wetland Restoration: The Landscape of Outstanding Features—Vlasina, Serbia ^†

Abstract

The comprehensive environmental, economic, and societal analysis plays a vital role in the strategic planning and management process for wetlands in the Landscape of Outstanding Features—Vlasina, Serbia. Given its simplicity and practicality, a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis will be conducted, followed by the application of two analytical tools, DEMATEL and AHP, for an in-depth evaluation of potential causal relationships. These tools will also help prioritize SWOT aspects and sub-aspects, guiding further development within the study area.

1. Introduction

SWOT analysis followed by scientifically proven DEMATEL and AHP methodologies [1,2,3,4,5,6] are used to enhance the analysis of nature-based solutions (NbS) and ecosystem services (ES) in the case study area around the Vlasina Lake [7,8]. The main goal of the approach under development is to help in systematically assessing and implementing NbS and ES in environmental planning and management in the study area. Worth mentioning is that various instruments and methodologies are identified during the ongoing project ‘Restoration of wetland complexes as life-supporting systems in the Danube Basin (Restore4Life)’. Key instruments and strategies identified by the project include (a) geographic information systems (GIS) for spatial analysis of ecosystems and identification of sub-areas providing key ecosystem services; (b) participatory approaches to engaging stakeholders (e.g., local community, policymakers, scientists) and ensuring local/regional/national knowledge and priorities to be incorporated; (c) ecosystem services valuation tools for quantifying the economic value of these services provided by NbS; (d) scenario analysis and modeling aimed at assessing different future scenarios and understanding potential impacts of various strategies on NbS and ES; and (e) multi-criteria decision analysis for prioritizing NbS options (environmental, economic, social) in the area.

The implementation of NbS-ES-related strategy into local, regional, and national policy frameworks will enhance capacity building and education, establishing various monitoring and evaluation systems to track the performance of NbS, developing funding mechanisms such as grants or green bonds, and defining incentives where required by NbS projects. Part of the implementation strategy will be ensuring efficient public-private partnerships to leverage resources and expertise and promote innovative solutions and widespread adoption of NbS within the Vlasina Lake (e.g., ‘floating’ green islands). Finally, an important part of the implementation strategy is continuous research and development, which will be enabled by national and international investments and other means of support.

2. Material and Methods

Utilizing identified instruments and strategies will significantly enhance the detailed SWOT analysis of NbS and ES in the study area, thus providing a comprehensive understanding and facilitating their effective implementation. Once completed (this process is underway), the SWOT content will be analyzed in so-called causal frameworks followed by multi-criteria analysis.

To maximize the benefits of NbS and ES in the Vlasina Lake study area and to particularly precisely identify inter-relations among factors and possible actions, the DEMATEL and AHP methodologies will be used. The DEMATEL will enable the assessment of causal dependences of, firstly, principal SWOT aspects (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats), and, secondly, will identify causal inter-relations between key sub-aspects in each particular segment of SWOT. The AHP-based methodology will be employed for a detailed assessment and prioritizing of key aspects within SWOT segments, followed by a detailed assessment of sub-aspects in each SWOT segment. Particular emphasis in the multi-criteria (AHP) part will be given to identifying priorities of key sub-aspects in SWOT rectangles and helping in directing strategies for NbS and ES implementation in the study area.

3. Illustrative Example

To demonstrate the approach, follow this three-step procedure:

Step 1: Create a global SWOT matrix, including four condensed subaspects in each section of the matrix:

Step 2: DEMATEL (Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) methodology is used by involved representatives from key stakeholder sectors (municipalities, regions, forestry, agriculture, tourism, culture, sport & recreation, …) to assess potential causal relationships between SWOT aspects (global segments), as well as causal relationships between sub-aspects in each segment. This process can be carried out either by the entire group or by subgroups during properly organized brainstorming sessions. Based on global and internal relationships and their intensity, DEMATEL may help to identify cause-and-effect clusters of components in SWOT segments and direct further detailed evaluations within the AHP methodology.

Step 3: Following the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) methodology, representatives from key stakeholder sectors conduct pair-wise comparisons of SWOT segments (key aspects) to determine their “importance weights.” This process can also be carried out either by the entire group or by subgroups. Participants engage in repeated brainstorming sessions and reach a consensus on the relative importance of SWOT aspects. A nine-point scale is employed, ranging from 1 (equal importance) to 9 (full dominance). Finally, the weights of the aspects are calculated from the pair-wise comparison matrix.

The same AHP methodology is applied within each SWOT segment to determine the local weights of the four sub-aspects identified in each segment. This provides stakeholders with a clear indication of the priorities that should be assigned to both the overarching SWOT aspects and their sub-aspects. Note: A further synthesis can be conducted by multiplying the aspect weights with the corresponding sub-aspect weights, resulting in a global weight for each sub-aspect. This detailed prioritization of sub-aspects can guide the focus on specific actions for the development of the Vlasina Lake Area.