Sector-Wise Optimal Energy Demand Forecasting for a Developing Country Using LEAP Software ^†

Abstract

Energy demand forecasting is a crucial activity in deciding the energy generation requirements of developing countries. Pakistan is one of the developing countries in South Asia. This paper presents an overview of the electric power sector structure of Pakistan with historical data and forecasts the energy demand of consumer groups in Pakistan till 2030 based on expected growth in the population and businesses. The proposed model is designed using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software with two scenarios, which are business-as-usual and energy conservation. Implementation of these scenarios shows that the energy demand of Pakistan will rise three folds by 2030.

1. Introduction

The role of energy in the development of a nation’s economy is crucial. Electricity, being the cleanest and most efficient form of energy, has become an important commodity for human survival in any country [1]. The energy demand has been rising constantly as human civilization and urbanization increase. Pakistan, being a developing economy, has been an energy crisis victim in the past decade and has influenced all sectors of the economy in the country [2]. Energy demand has been increasing proportionally with the increase in population, industrialization, per capita income, and electrification of remote areas [2].

Ensuring a sustainable electricity supply creates large opportunities for businesses around the globe [3]. Recently, the demand for energy has been increasing as industrial targets and social activities increase in the modern world [3]. The government of Pakistan (GOP) has formulated many energy plans in the past, but was unable to sustain the balance between energy demand and supply [4]. Currently, energy demand is greater as compared with energy generation, hence, Pakistan is a victim of an energy crisis [4]. Currently, the power sector of Pakistan is managed and operated by private and government entities. These entities generally manage the sustainable electricity supply for energy generation, transmission, and distribution [5]. Pakistan’s power generating organizations are the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA, Lahore, Pakistan), which manages hydro power, Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO, Punjab, Pakistan), which manages the thermal power of four power generating companies named GENCOs (Islamabad, Pakistan), Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP, Karachi, Pakistan) and Chashma Nuclear Power Plant (CHASNUPP, Punjab, Pakistan), which manages nuclear power and these two power plants are monitored by Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) Pakistan and supervised by Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA) Pakistan, and K-Electric manages the thermal power of the economical hub (Karachi) of Pakistan and independent power producers (IPPs) Pakistan generating electricity from imported oil and natural gases [5]. Some other IPPs generate electricity from biomass, solar, and wind resources in Pakistan [6]. The management of power transmission is managed by the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA, Islamabad, Pakistan) and the National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC, Lahore, Pakistan). Both of these organizations work under the umbrella of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA, Islamabad, Pakistan) [7]. For power distribution in Pakistan, there are ten distribution companies working, namely, PESCO, HESCO, IESCO, MEPCO, TESCO, QESCO, SEPCO, FESCO, GEPCO, and LESCO [7]. Despite such a huge development in the energy sector, the country is facing long-duration energy outages in the torturous heat of summer [8]. Hence, there is a need to develop proper energy plans and models and propose new areas for future investments [8].

This study helps policymakers in estimating the accurate energy demand based on economic viability. This study estimates the energy demand from 2018 to 2030 while considering important aspects and factors, including population, gross domestic product (GDP), number of electricity consumers, transmission and distribution (T and D) losses, total household members, and past consumption of electricity. It forecasts the rise of energy demand till 2030 under the business-as-usual and energy conservation scenarios through the application of the LEAP software for the assessment of the energy plan.

2. Literature Review

Integrated power planning is helpful in deciding on sustainable electricity supplies in Pakistan. As such, medium-term energy planning with realistic assumptions creates rapid social development in the country’s economy [9]. Proper use of energy modeling tools provides a realistic forecast based on the GDP, population, T and D losses, number of electricity consumers, total household members, and past consumption of electricity [10]. Many co-integration techniques, including abductive networks, neural networks, univariate, and multivariate time series analysis, such as the autoregressive moving average (ARMA), are broadly implemented in the literature review of energy demand forecasts. In this context, energy demand forecasting efforts at national levels are listed in Table 1. So, this work was developed to fill the existing gap between reliable and sustainable energy demand forecasts in Pakistan. This research presents a unique effort in energy demand forecasting, which considers all the major factors, including GDP, population, T and D losses, number of electricity consumers, total household members, and past consumption of electricity. These factors contribute to all the drivers of the country’s economy.

3. Research Methodology

The demand for energy is estimated for the period 2018–2030 under the two scenarios, namely business-as-usual (BAU) and energy conservation (EC). In this research, LEAP is used for forecasting the demand for energy for future expansion of the power network in Pakistan. Energy demand is forecasted based on the major sectors, which includes domestic, commercial, industrial, agriculture, and others (public and private service providers). The key assumptions for this LEAP energy demand structure includes transmission and distribution (T and D) losses, gross domestic product (GDP), total population, and the total numbers of households in the country as listed below.

• T and D losses for 2018 is 18% and for 2030 is 12–14% [11].
• The total population of the country is 207.7 million [12].
• Households in Pakistan are 32.2 million (average members are 6.4 per house) [12].
• Agriculture GDP is 53.56 billion USD, commercial GDP is 132.95 billion USD, industrial GDP is 52.31 billion USD, and total GDP is 314.58 billion USD [13].

Past consumption of electricity and number of consumers are presented in Figure 1a,b [14].

Table 1. Energy demand efforts at country level.

Study	Period and Demand	Scenario’s	Suggested Scenario	Factors Considered in Energy Demand Forecasting
				Sector Wise GDP	Population and Growth Rate	Number of Electricity Consumers	T and D Losses	Households and Average Members	Past Consumption of Electricity
[15]	2030 368 TWh	Baseline and Hydro resources	Hydro resources	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes
[16]	2014 to 2035 172 TWh	-	-	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	Yes
[17]	2011–2030 312 TWh	Baseline and Green future	Green future	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	Yes
[18]	2014–2035 303 TWh	Baseline and Renewable energy	Renewable energy	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes
This study	2018–2030 312 TWh	Baseline and Energy conservation	Energy conservation	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Table 1. Energy demand efforts at country level.

Study	Period and Demand	Scenario’s	Suggested Scenario	Factors Considered in Energy Demand Forecasting
				Sector Wise GDP	Population and Growth Rate	Number of Electricity Consumers	T and D Losses	Households and Average Members	Past Consumption of Electricity
[15]	2030 368 TWh	Baseline and Hydro resources	Hydro resources	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes
[16]	2014 to 2035 172 TWh	-	-	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	Yes
[17]	2011–2030 312 TWh	Baseline and Green future	Green future	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	Yes
[18]	2014–2035 303 TWh	Baseline and Renewable energy	Renewable energy	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes
This study	2018–2030 312 TWh	Baseline and Energy conservation	Energy conservation	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

This study examines two energy demand scenarios, namely business-as-usual and energy conservation. Both of the scenarios provide future planning perspectives for the electricity network in Pakistan. The BAU scenario portrays the past and present trends of the electricity situation in the country. The BAU scenario pertains to the information that any development proceeds in the future will be considered the same as was established in the past and that there were no alterations in the power planning and policies of Pakistan. The power system parameters include T and D losses, energy efficiency, power generation technology, power generation fuel, minimum sharing of renewable energies, and consumption patterns of electricity in the economic sectors of Pakistan will remain the same under the BAU scenario. EC is considered an important aspect in the future growth of electricity demand because it facilitates the use of modern technologies that require small power to perform the concerned task. There are several ways for EC, including proper home insulation and turning off appliances, such as lights, televisions, fans, desktop computers, air conditioners, and other appliances when not in use. Along with it is the performance of the mock audit technique on the energy consumption sectors. In this way, electricity saving potential will cause a reduction in the energy demand. This electricity saving potential is forecasted by the Asian Development Bank (ADB, Mandaluyong, Philippines). The domestic sector saves 25% of energy, the industrial sector saves 14.55% of energy, the commercial sector saves 23.86% of energy, the agriculture sector saves 41.1% of energy, and the other (public and private) sector saves 5.69% of energy [19].

4. Results and Discussion

The sector-wise demand for energy in Pakistan is forecasted till 2030 under the BAU and EC scenarios. The energy demand under the BAU scenario for the years 2018, 2022, 2026, and 2030 is 110.9 TWh, 168.5 TWh, 258.3 TWh, and 399.0 TWh, respectively. The energy demand under the EC scenario for the years 2018, 2022, 2026, and 2030 is 110.9 TWh, 157.5 TWh, 224.5 TWh, and 312.6 TWh, respectively. The demand for energy for the years 2018–2030 is depicted in Figure 2. The domestic sector will be the highest electricity-consuming sector as compared with the others, such as the agriculture, industrial, and commercial sectors.

5. Conclusions

We estimated and evaluated sector-wise energy demand projections for Pakistan for the year 2030 based on the basic and alternate scenarios using an energy modeling tool (LEAP). The results of this research were compared quantitatively based on present trends and policies and energy conservation impacts. The past data of energy consumption in Pakistan from 2009 to 2018 was used and energy demands using two different models, namely, business-as-usual and energy conservation, were forecasted. The energy demand estimated from these two models was found to be 399 TWh and 312 TWh, respectively, in the year 2030. In the year 2021, the same was found to be 151.6 TWh and 134 TWh, respectively. Hence, there is a need to harness electrical energy from domestic energy assets to fulfill the energy demand of Pakistan and develop a plan based on energy conservation techniques that are economically feasible and environmentally friendly for long-term planning.