News Avoidance and Media Trust: Exploring Intentional Public Disengagement in Egypt’s Media System

Abstract

This study examines news avoidance behaviors in Egypt’s media system, addressing a significant gap in understanding how audiences disengage from news content in non-Western contexts. Using a mixed-methods approach combining focus groups (n = 16), surveys (n = 512), and expert interviews (n = 4), we investigate the relationships between news overload, trust in formal media, and selective attention in shaping news avoidance behaviors. Our structural equation model demonstrates strong explanatory power (R² = 0.505), with news overload emerging as the strongest predictor of avoidance behaviors (β = 0.481). Trust in formal media (β = −0.265) and selective attention (β = −0.184) show significant negative relationships with news avoidance. Qualitative findings reveal how Egypt’s media system creates unique conditions for news avoidance, with audiences developing sophisticated strategies for managing information flow within an environment of state control. The study advances the theoretical understanding of news avoidance by demonstrating how Media Saturation Theory operates within authoritarian contexts while providing practical insights for news organizations operating under state control. Our findings suggest that news avoidance in authoritarian systems represents not simply audience disengagement but rather a complex adaptation to specific institutional and social conditions.

1. Introduction

The growing phenomenon of news avoidance presents a significant challenge to journalism’s democratic function and the sustainability of news organizations worldwide. Intentional news avoidance describes an intermittent news use practice in which people deliberately turn away from the news (Schäfer et al., 2023). Recent global research indicates that 36% of news consumers actively avoid news content, marking a concerning 9% increase from 2017 (Newman et al., 2024). This trend emerges against a backdrop of unprecedented accessibility to news through digital platforms, creating an apparent paradox: despite the news being more available than ever, a substantial portion of the global population chooses to disengage from it (Xu et al., 2024). Egypt’s news avoidance patterns should be examined within this global trend, as the country represents an important case of how audience disengagement manifests in non-Western authoritarian contexts which are underrepresented in the Reuters Institute’s annual global surveys.

While existing scholarship has extensively examined news avoidance in Western democratic contexts (e.g., Andersen et al., 2024; Woodstock, 2014; Palmer et al., 2020; Damstra et al., 2023), there remains a critical gap in understanding how this phenomenon manifests in non-Western societies, particularly those operating under authoritarian media systems. This study addresses this gap by investigating news avoidance behaviors in Egypt, where the intersection of digital transformation, strict press regulations, and complex socio-economic factors creates a unique environment for examining news consumption patterns.

Egypt represents a particularly valuable case study for examining news avoidance due to its unique position as the most populous Arab nation with significant regional influence, its complex media environment characterized by tension between state control and digital expansion, and its rapidly evolving digital landscape where traditional authority intersects with new information flows (Allam, 2019; Elsheikh et al., 2024). The Egyptian context allows for examining how audiences navigate news consumption in what scholars have variously characterized as an authoritarian (Khalifa, 2021) or transitional media system (Allam, 2022), where state intervention coexists with growing digital connectivity and alternative information sources. This distinctive environment creates conditions for news avoidance behaviors that may differ significantly from those documented in Western democratic contexts, offering valuable comparative insights for expanding the theoretical understanding of this phenomenon.

The Egyptian context offers valuable insights into news avoidance behaviors for several reasons. Egyptian news organizations face substantial challenges in retaining audiences amid digital transitions, declining financial revenues, and competition from citizen journalists and international media organizations (Elsheikh et al., 2024). The strict press regulation system enforces specific frames for content creation, establishing distinctive conditions (Obia, 2023) that shape news consumption and avoidance behaviors.

This research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining focus groups (n = 16), surveys (n = 512), and in-depth interviews with media professionals and academics to examine the factors influencing news avoidance in Egypt. The study addresses two primary research questions: What factors contribute to news avoidance behaviors in Egypt? Furthermore, what factors motivate increased news engagement among Egyptian audiences? Through this investigation, we test hypotheses regarding the relationships between news overload, trust in formal media organizations, and selective attention to specific news topics with news avoidance behaviors.

Our findings show that news overload, trust in formal media, and selective attention influence news avoidance behaviors among Egyptian audiences. Excessive news exposure leads to cognitive overwhelm, driving these avoidance behaviors regardless of media system type. However, in authoritarian contexts, audiences are more sensitive to repetitive state-approved narratives, indicating that media saturation differs qualitatively from the information abundance typical in democratic environments.

This study contributes to journalism scholarship in several ways. First, it expands our understanding of news avoidance beyond Western democratic contexts by examining this phenomenon within an authoritarian media system. Second, it provides empirical evidence of how socio-political contexts influence news consumption patterns. Third, it offers practical insights for news organizations operating in non-Western markets, particularly those working under strict regulatory frameworks.

The findings of this research have significant implications for both journalism theory and practice. They challenge existing assumptions about news avoidance that have been primarily based on Western experiences and offer new perspectives on how authoritarian media systems influence audience engagement with news content. Furthermore, this study provides valuable insights for news organizations seeking to address declining audience engagement in similar media environments.

2. Theoretical Framework

The examination of news avoidance behaviors in Egypt’s authoritarian media system requires a sophisticated theoretical foundation that integrates multiple perspectives from media studies, psychology, and political communication. This section develops an expanded theoretical framework that explicates the complex relationships between media saturation, cognitive processing, institutional structures, and cultural contexts that shape news avoidance behaviors.

Media Saturation Theory provides our primary theoretical lens, offering critical insights into how the overwhelming presence of media content influences audience behavior in contemporary digital environments (S. Lee & Peng, 2024). The theory posits that individuals’ attitudes and behaviors are shaped through three key mechanisms: cognitive overload, emotional exhaustion, and behavioral adaptation (Klopfenstein et al., 2024). In Egypt’s rapidly digitalizing media landscape, these mechanisms help explain how constant exposure to news across multiple platforms affects audience engagement (Zayani & Khalil, 2024). The theory suggests that when cognitive processing capabilities are overwhelmed by excessive information, individuals develop adaptive behaviors—including avoidance—as coping mechanisms. This theoretical perspective is particularly relevant in examining how Egyptian audiences navigate an information environment characterized by both state-controlled traditional media and increasingly prevalent digital platforms.

The emotional dimensions of news consumption and avoidance provide another crucial theoretical lens. Song (2017) demonstrated how discrete emotions—particularly fear, anger, and enthusiasm—influence news consumption’s selective approach and avoidance patterns differently. In authoritarian contexts, state control of media narratives may amplify these emotional responses, potentially intensifying both approach and avoidance behaviors. The interaction between emotional responses and institutional constraints creates unique patterns of selective exposure that differ from those observed in democratic media systems.

Cognitive dissonance theory (Festinger, 1957) with selective exposure processes to understand the psychological mechanisms underlying news avoidance is integrated to complement this foundation. Cognitive dissonance theory explains how individuals strive to maintain psychological consistency by avoiding information that challenges their existing beliefs (Zhou & Xie, 2024). This theoretical combination helps illuminate how Egyptian audiences decide about news consumption within an environment where state control often results in homogeneous news coverage. The theory of motivated reasoning further enriches this framework by explaining how individuals’ pre-existing beliefs and motivations influence their processing of news information (Lockett, 2024).

Media systems theory, particularly its articulation of how institutional structures shape audience behavior, is incorporated into our theoretical framework. While classical media systems theory primarily focused on Western democratic systems, recent theoretical developments have expanded our understanding of how authoritarian media systems influence audience engagement patterns (Jamil, 2021). This theoretical perspective helps explain how state control, regulatory frameworks, and limited media plurality in Egypt create specific conditions that may encourage news avoidance behaviors. The theory suggests that when media primarily serve state interests rather than public information needs, audiences may develop systematic patterns of disengagement.

Cultural theory provides an additional theoretical dimension essential for understanding news avoidance in non-Western contexts. Drawing from theoretical work on cultural dimensions of media consumption (Hofstede, 2001), we consider how Egyptian cultural values, social structures, and communication patterns influence news consumption behaviors (Allam & Hollifield, 2023). Also, the prevalence of fake news and disinformation may constitute an uncertainty that needs to be avoided according to Hofstede (Arrese, 2024). These theoretical perspectives help explain how cultural factors might mediate the relationship between media saturation and avoidance behaviors in ways that differ from Western contexts.

These theoretical approaches coexist and interact in ways that create a unique explanatory framework for news avoidance in Egypt’s transitional media system. Media Saturation Theory’s emphasis on cognitive overload intersects with institutional factors highlighted by media systems theory, as state-controlled narratives may create distinctive forms of content repetition that differ from information abundance in democratic contexts. Similarly, selective exposure processes operate differently under conditions of limited media plurality, creating tension between cognitive consistency needs and information availability constraints (Zhou & Xie, 2024).

Critically, these theoretical intersections reveal potential contradictions that require empirical examination. For instance, while Media Saturation Theory generally predicts avoidance behaviors during information overload, research in other transitional contexts suggests that during national crisis or political uncertainty, some audiences may increase consumption despite overwhelm (Skurka et al., 2023). Similarly, institutional distrust might lead to wholesale avoidance in some contexts but selective migration to alternative sources in others. Our integrated framework acknowledges these tensions while providing analytical tools to examine how psychological processes interact with structural constraints in shaping news avoidance behaviors in Egypt’s specific media environment.

3. Literature Review

The examination of news avoidance emerges at the intersection of multiple scholarly traditions, reflecting broader theoretical concerns about media engagement, audience behavior, and institutional structures. This review synthesizes existing research while identifying critical gaps in understanding news avoidance within non-Western, authoritarian media contexts.

Contemporary scholarship demonstrates a significant global increase in intentional news avoidance, with frequent news avoiders rising from 27% in 2017 to 36% in 2023 (Newman et al., 2024). This trend coincides with fundamental transformations in media landscapes, accelerated by global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, international conflicts, and economic instability. These structural changes have profoundly altered news organizations’ relationship with their audiences, challenging traditional assumptions about news consumption patterns.

Research examining news overload provides crucial insights into avoidance behaviors. The proliferation of media channels and technological innovations has created an information environment that frequently exceeds individuals’ cognitive processing capabilities (Goyanes et al., 2023). This overwhelming volume of information interferes with effective news processing, leading to information fatigue syndrome (Shahrzadi et al., 2024). Studies indicate that this phenomenon and information literacy manifest particularly strongly in social media environments, where algorithmic content delivery can rapidly overcome users’ cognitive limits (Heiss et al., 2023).

The deterioration of trust in media institutions represents another critical dimension in news avoidance research (S. Park et al., 2024). Global studies reveal a consistent decline in media trust, with only 40% of international participants expressing confidence in mainstream news coverage (Newman et al., 2024). This erosion of trust becomes particularly significant in authoritarian media systems, where state control of information creates complex dynamics between institutional credibility and audience perception (Verboord et al., 2023). Research suggests that a declining trust may manifest differently under authoritarian systems than in democratic contexts, potentially leading to distinct patterns of news avoidance behavior (F. L. Lee, 2024).

Social media’s transformation of news consumption patterns adds another layer of theoretical complexity, particularly when considering socioeconomic factors often overlooked in Western-centered research. Studies document a significant shift toward social media as primary news sources (Casero-Ripollés, 2022), but this shift is mediated by economic barriers like internet access costs, technological literacy variations, and educational differences that may disproportionately affect news consumption in countries like Egypt (Allam & Hollifield, 2023). These structural barriers interact with algorithmic content curation systems that may amplify or mitigate news avoidance tendencies depending on user behaviors and platform design.

This complexity extends to the “news finds me” perception (Skurka et al., 2023), where individuals believe passive social media exposure provides sufficient information. However, this perception operates differently across socioeconomic groups. It may serve as an economically rational response in contexts where economic factors and state intervention constrain access to diverse news sources. Research indicates potential consequences for civic engagement (Swart, 2023), but these relationships require examination within Egypt’s specific socioeconomic context rather than assuming patterns observed in higher-resource environments.

Recent research has highlighted how incidental exposure to news on social media platforms influences news consumption patterns and perceptions. C. S. Park and Kaye (2020) found that incidental exposure to news via social media strengthens the news-finds-me perception while negatively affecting news consumption from traditional and online media. This finding becomes particularly significant in authoritarian contexts where social media may be an alternative to state-controlled traditional media. The intersection of incidental exposure and state control creates unique conditions for news avoidance behaviors, potentially reinforcing selective exposure patterns while weakening engagement with traditional news sources.

Within Egypt’s transitional media context, distinctive structural characteristics demand theoretical attention beyond general news avoidance frameworks. Egyptian media operates within a complex environment characterized by self-censorship practices among journalists (Elsheikh et al., 2024), surveillance concerns that may shape audience behavior, and the emergence of parallel information ecosystems through alternative media sources, including exile journalism and independent digital platforms (AlAshry, 2022). These conditions create unique parameters for news consumption where avoidance may represent not disengagement but strategic information management under perceived surveillance and limited plurality.

The role of alternative media in transitional systems introduces additional complexity, as audiences may simultaneously avoid state-aligned news while actively seeking information from opposition sources operating abroad or through encrypted messaging systems (Allam, 2022). This selective avoidance differs substantively from patterns observed in Western contexts, suggesting news avoidance in transitional systems may function as a form of information curation rather than wholesale disengagement. Such dynamics remain undertheorized, as the existing literature has predominantly focused on Western media markets with fundamentally different structural conditions (Damstra et al., 2023).

The proliferation of misinformation presents another critical area of scholarly investigation (Aïmeur et al., 2023). Recent research examines how spreading false information influences trust in media institutions and contributes to avoidance behaviors (Chan et al., 2024). This relationship becomes particularly significant in contexts where press freedom is limited, and state control of media is prevalent. However, theoretical development in this area remains limited, especially regarding how misinformation dynamics operate in non-Western settings.

Egypt’s media system has evolved through distinct phases, from Nasser-era state control to limited liberalization in the 1990s–2000s, followed by a brief opening during 2011–2013, and subsequent reconsolidation of control (AlAshry, 2022). The current landscape is characterized by dominant state and military-affiliated ownership of mainstream outlets following the 2016–2018 consolidation wave, with legal frameworks, including the 2018 cybercrime law and Supreme Media Regulatory Council regulations, significantly constraining content (Elsheikh et al., 2024).

This environment creates media outlets that primarily advance state-approved narratives. Simultaneously, Egypt has experienced rapid digital transformation, with internet penetration exceeding 70% by 2023, creating tension between growing social media usage and state efforts to maintain narrative control (Allam & Hollifield, 2023). This unique combination of institutional restrictions and digital expansion establishes distinctive conditions for news consumption and avoidance behaviors that merit specific examination beyond frameworks developed in Western democratic contexts.

We acknowledge the ongoing scholarly debate regarding classifying Egypt’s media system. While our study initially characterized Egypt as an authoritarian media system following Khalifa (2021), we recognize the value of considering alternative perspectives. Recent scholarship by Elsheikh et al. (2024) and Allam (2019) suggests that Egypt might more accurately be understood as a transitional system, reflecting ongoing institutional evolution and complex relationships between state institutions, media organizations, and emerging digital platforms. Rather than strictly categorizing Egypt within a single system type, we propose examining news avoidance behaviors within this contested classificatory space offers valuable insights into how audience behaviors adapt to evolving control mechanisms. Throughout our analysis, we attend to both authoritarian characteristics (centralized content control, limited pluralism) and transitional elements (digital expansion, alternative information channels) that shape news consumption patterns. This nuanced approach allows us to contribute to theoretical discussions about how different system characteristics influence audience engagement and avoidance strategies.

Recent research indicates that Egyptian digital news platforms prioritize entertainment and service journalism over hard news coverage, creating content patterns that may influence audience engagement and avoidance behaviors (Elsheikh et al., 2024). This emphasis on lighter content occurs alongside sophisticated state efforts to manage online information flows through regulatory mechanisms above and beyond content moderation (AlAshry, 2022). The resulting digital environment creates complex conditions where audiences navigate between state-aligned narratives, entertainment content, and alternative information sources accessed through social media and international platforms. Young Egyptians in particular, rely on these digital channels, with over 65% primarily accessing news through social platforms rather than direct visits to news websites (Allam & Hollifield, 2023). This selective consumption pattern suggests that news avoidance in Egypt’s digital space may manifest not as complete disengagement but rather as strategic navigation between approved narratives and alternative information ecosystems.

This review reveals significant gaps in our theoretical understanding of news avoidance, particularly in non-Western, authoritarian contexts. While existing research provides valuable insights into the mechanisms of news avoidance in democratic media systems, it offers limited theoretical guidance for understanding these phenomena in different institutional and cultural contexts. The present study addresses these theoretical gaps by examining news avoidance within Egypt’s unique media environment, contributing to a more comprehensive theoretical framework for understanding global patterns of news engagement and disengagement.

4. Materials and Methods

This study employed a mixed-methods research design (Creswell & Plano Clark, 2018) to examine news avoidance behaviors in Egypt’s unique media environment. The university institutional Board approved the research design, sampling methods, procedures, instruments, and consent forms. The sequential design allowed findings from each phase to inform subsequent data collection, providing comprehensive insights into how and why Egyptians disengage from news content.

The study’s sampling strategy was designed to balance representativeness with feasibility given the unique challenges of conducting research in Egypt’s media environment. The mixed-methods approach employed different sampling strategies for each phase: purposive sampling for focus groups to ensure demographic diversity (Etikan et al., 2016), random sampling from a large sampling frame of 2.5 million Egyptians accessed by a professional field marketing research company for the survey to achieve broad representation across key demographics, and expert sampling for interviews to capture diverse professional perspectives. This multi-layered sampling approach helped mitigate potential biases while ensuring adequate representation of audience segments and expert viewpoints.

The research proceeded through three distinct phases: focus groups to explore news consumption patterns, a quantitative survey to test hypothesized relationships, and expert interviews to contextualize findings. This design enabled methodological triangulation while capitalizing on the strengths of both qualitative and quantitative approaches.

4.1. Focus Groups

We conducted two focus groups using purposive non-random sampling to ensure participant diversity across age and gender. Focus group protocols were developed through a three-stage process. First, preliminary topics and questions were derived from the existing literature on news avoidance, particularly focusing on themes relevant to authoritarian media contexts. Second, the protocol underwent expert review by two senior media researchers with extensive experience in Egyptian media studies. Their feedback led to refinements in question wording and the addition of prompts specific to local media consumption patterns. Finally, a pilot focus group with six participants helped identify potential comprehension issues and optimal question sequencing (Krueger & Casey, 2015).

The final protocol included four main discussion sections: (1) general news consumption habits and preferences, (2) experiences with news overload and fatigue, (3) trust in different news sources, and (4) strategies for managing news exposure. Each section began with open-ended questions followed by specific probes. The moderator was trained to encourage participant interaction while maintaining focus on key themes. Sessions were conducted in colloquial Arabic to ensure a natural discussion flow, with professional translation for analysis purposes.

Table 1. Focus group demographics: distribution by age and gender.

Age Group	Male	Female	Total	Percentage
18–24 years	4	4	8	50.0
25–45 years	4	4	8	50.0
Total	8	8	16	100.0

N = 16. Focus groups were conducted online via Zoom in October and November 2024.

presents the demographic composition of the focus groups.

Focus groups were conducted online to enable participation across different geographical regions of Egypt, including participants from Cairo, Alexandria, Mansoura, and Aswan. The online format was chosen to overcome geographical limitations and logistic concerns that might have affected participation in physical settings while ensuring diverse regional representation. Sessions were conducted with incentivized participants online via Zoom, lasting approximately 2.5 h each. Discussions followed a semi-structured protocol exploring news consumption habits, experiences with news overload, trust in media organizations, and selective attention patterns. Sessions were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using Krippendorff’s (2018) content analysis procedures.

4.2. The Survey

The survey instrument integrated established scales from previous research, modified for the Egyptian context through rigorous pilot testing (DeVellis & Thorpe, 2021). A pilot study with 30 participants led to translation and item wording refinements.

Table 2. Measurement scales with reliability analysis.

Construct and Items	Factor Loading	Source	Cronbach α
News Avoidance		Betakova et al. (2024)	0.940
Q9. If I encounter news, I actively turn away	0.868
Q10. I don’t want to engage with news	0.942
Q12. I’d like to reduce time spent on news	0.938
Q13. I don’t want to waste time with news	0.933
News Overload		Song et al. (2016)	0.875
Q16. I receive more news than I can process	0.619
Q17. I feel stressed with news volume	0.928
Q18. I feel confused with news volume	0.934
Q19. I feel reluctant to follow news	0.912
Formal Media Trust		Arlt (2018)	0.971
Q21. News is credible	0.944
Q22. News is well-researched	0.961
Q23. News presents facts as they are	0.959
Q24. News covers all important aspects	0.954
Q25. News is neutral	0.886
Q26. News presents different perspectives	0.908
Selective Attention		Martin (2013)	0.926
Q27. Following specific topic news	0.907
Q28. Attention to specific topic news	0.942
Q29. Attention to other topics news	0.950

N = 512. All items measured on a 7-point Likert scale (1 = strongly disagree to 7 = strongly agree).

presents the final measurement scales and their sources.

The final survey was administered online using random stratified sampling through social media and professional networks. The sampling criteria were to have a stratified sample with at least 100 participants in each of the four news consumption frequencies given in

Table 3. Sample demographic characteristics.

Characteristic	n	%
Gender
Male	263	51.4
Female	249	48.6
Age Group
18–25 years	97	19.0
26–35 years	108	21.1
36–45 years	122	23.8
45–55 years	96	18.8
Over 55 years	89	17.4
Education Level
Bachelor’s degree	397	77.5
High school	94	18.4
Master’s degree	19	3.7
PhD	2	0.4
News Consumption Frequency
Three to five times weekly	147	28.7
Two to three times daily	144	28.1
Three or more times daily	100	19.5
Once or twice weekly	120	23.4
No news consumption	1	0.2

N = 512. Data was collected through an online survey between September and October 2024.

, while maintaining the gender balance evenly split. The sample comprised 512 valid responses collected over a six-week period. Table 3 presents sample demographics. Both theoretical and statistical considerations guided sample size determination. A priori power analysis using G*Power 3.1 indicated that a minimum sample of 485 participants would be needed to detect medium effect sizes (f² = 0.15) with 95% power at α = 0.05 for our structural equation model with three predictors. Our final sample of 512 participants exceeded this threshold, providing adequate statistical power while accounting for potential invalid responses. Additionally, the sample size satisfied common guidelines for structural equation modeling, which recommend a minimum ratio of 10 observations per estimated parameter (our model included 42 free parameters, requiring at least 420 observations).

4.3. Expert Interviews

Four in-depth interviews were conducted with media professionals and academics selected through purposive sampling based on their expertise in Egyptian media. Participants included two senior journalists and two university professors specializing in journalism and mass communication. Senior journalists were those with at least 15 years of professional experience in Egyptian news organizations and current or former editorial decision-making positions. The selected journalists represented private and state-affiliated media organizations to capture diverse institutional perspectives. Academic experts were full professors from the journalism and mass communication departments at Cairo University and the American University in Cairo. They were selected for their extensive research on Egyptian media systems and institutional history. These institutions were chosen based on their prominence in media education and research in Egypt. Cairo University represents the established national education system and AUC offers an international perspective within the Egyptian context. Selection criteria included publication records on Egyptian media, a minimum of 10 years of academic experience, and the absence of current political appointments to ensure scholarly independence. Interviews followed a semi-structured protocol focused on interpreting survey findings within Egypt’s media context.

4.4. Data Analysis

Data analysis employed a mixed-methods approach corresponding to our research design. Focus group transcripts were analyzed using Krippendorff’s content analysis procedures, involving systematic coding, categorization, and theme identification. This analysis followed a rigorous protocol of initial coding, collaborative code refinement, and thematic synthesis to ensure analytical rigor. Survey data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) in SmartPLS 4 (Ringle et al., 2024). This analytical approach was chosen for its suitability for exploratory research and complex models with multiple constructs (Hair et al., 2022). The measurement model fit was assessed using standard indices (SRMR, NFI) alongside construct reliability (Cronbach’s α) and discriminant validity (HTMT ratios). Expert interviews were analyzed using thematic analysis to identify key insights regarding the structural and contextual factors influencing news avoidance in Egypt’s media environment.

This comprehensive methodological approach enabled a thorough examination of news avoidance behaviors while maintaining rigorous data collection and analysis standards. Combining qualitative and quantitative methods provided rich insights into individual-level motivations and broader structural factors influencing news avoidance in Egypt’s media environment.

5. Results

The analysis proceeded in two stages: first, assessing the measurement model’s reliability and validity, and then examining the structural model and hypothesized relationships. The measurement model demonstrated strong reliability and validity. All constructs showed high internal consistency with Cronbach’s alpha values ranging from 0.875 to 0.971 (see Table 2).

Discriminant validity was assessed using the heterotrait–monotrait ratio of correlations (HTMT).

Table 4. Heterotrait–monotrait ratio (HTMT) matrix.

Construct	1	2	3	4
1. Formal Media Trust	-
2. News Avoidance	0.528	-
3. News Overload	0.205	0.662	-
4. Selective Attention	0.812	0.539	0.246	-

presents the HTMT matrix, showing all values below the conservative threshold of 0.80, confirming discriminant validity between constructs. The PLS path model demonstrated strong fit indices, as shown in

Table 5. Model fit statistics.standard.

Fit Index	Estimated Model
SRMR	0.053
d_ULS	0.427
d_G	0.326
Chi-square	1015.231
NFI	0.903

.

5.1. Structural Model Results

The structural model demonstrates strong explanatory power, accounting for 50.5% of the variance in news avoidance behaviors. This substantial R² value indicates the model’s robust capability to explain news avoidance patterns in the Egyptian context. The results (

Table 6. Structural model results: path coefficients and effect sizes.

Path	Coefficient (β)	t-Value	p-Value	f2	Hypothesis Support
News Overload → News Avoidance	0.481	12.847	<0.01	0.439	H1 Supported
Formal Media Trust → News Avoidance	−0.265	8.236	<0.01	0.058	H2 Supported
Selective Attention → News Avoidance	−0.184	6.124	<0.01	0.028	H3 Supported

Note: R² = 0.505; N = 512.

) reveal several significant relationships that align with our theoretical framework (Figure 1).

News overload emerged as the dominant predictor of avoidance behaviors (β = 0.481, p < 0.01), with a large effect size (f² = 0.439). This strong positive relationship aligns with Media Saturation Theory, suggesting that when individuals experience cognitive overload from excessive news exposure, they develop avoidance as a coping mechanism. The substantial effect size indicates that news overload plays a crucial role in driving avoidance behaviors within Egypt’s media-saturated environment.

Trust in formal media demonstrated a significant negative relationship with news avoidance (β = −0.265, p < 0.01), with an effect size (f² = 0.058) that falls within Cohen’s (2013) guidelines for a small-to-medium effect. This finding supports institutional trust theories, indicating that declining trust in formal media organizations corresponds with increased avoidance behaviors.

While this effect size might be considered modest in general research contexts, it represents a meaningful influence within Egypt’s media environment, where institutional trust operates within complex constraints. The relatively smaller effect compared to news overload (f² = 0.439, considered large by conventional standards) suggests a hierarchy of influences in Egypt’s media environment, with cognitive overwhelm functioning as the primary driver while trust issues play a significant but secondary role in shaping avoidance behaviors.

Selective attention showed a significant negative relationship with news avoidance (β = −0.184, p < 0.01), albeit with a smaller effect size (f² = 0.028). This relationship aligns with selective exposure theory, suggesting that individuals who actively select specific news topics are less likely to engage in wholesale avoidance behaviors. The smaller effect size indicates that selective attention plays a more modest role in mitigating avoidance behaviors compared to other factors.

These relationships demonstrate the complex interplay between cognitive, institutional, and behavioral factors in shaping news avoidance within Egypt’s unique media environment. The findings particularly highlight how Media Saturation Theory’s predictions about information overload manifest strongly in an authoritarian media context, while institutional trust and selective exposure mechanisms play supporting roles in explaining avoidance behaviors.

5.2. Qualitative Findings

Our qualitative analysis revealed distinct patterns in how different demographic groups approach news avoidance, while expert interviews provided crucial context for understanding these behaviors within Egypt’s media landscape.

Focus group discussions highlighted significant differences between age groups in their news consumption and avoidance approach. This generational variation aligns with Shehata’s (2016) findings on developing news habits among young people, which demonstrated the crucial role of family communication patterns in shaping news consumption behaviors. In our Egyptian context, family influence manifests distinctly within the authoritarian media environment, where parents often serve as news filters and interpreters for younger family members. This familial mediation becomes particularly important given the complex relationship between state-controlled traditional media and emerging digital platforms.

Younger participants (ages 18–24) clearly preferred social media-based news consumption, with particular attention to visual content and concise formats. They reported more selective consumption patterns, engaging primarily with topics directly relevant to their interests or trending on social media. In contrast, older participants (ages 25–45) expressed a more complex relationship with news avoidance, often describing a sense of obligation to stay informed despite experiencing information fatigue. This sentiment was particularly strong among male participants, who frequently cited economic and political implications as motivators for continued news consumption. One older male participant articulated this tension: “I want to avoid consuming the news, but unfortunately, I do not have this luxury because I will be affected by its consequences at the end of the day”.

Gender differences emerged as particularly noteworthy in our qualitative analysis. Female participants across age groups reported greater sensitivity to emotionally distressing news content, especially regarding conflict and humanitarian crises. As one young female participant explained, “I usually avoid harsh videos including hard scenes of war victims. I play the videos covering negative events but only listen to the sound instead of actively watching the scenes”. This suggests gender-specific avoidance strategies focused on managing emotional impact rather than wholesale content rejection. Male participants, conversely, more frequently cited practical utility and economic impact as primary factors in their news selection decisions, with several expressing a perceived obligation to remain informed despite experiencing information fatigue. These gendered patterns suggest that news avoidance manifests differently across demographic groups, with potentially different intervention points for re-engagement.

Our findings on selective attention highlight audience agency in news selection, but this agency operates within increasingly algorithmic information environments that warrant critical examination. Algorithmic content curation on social media platforms—where many Egyptian news consumers obtain their information—creates personalized information environments that may amplify or mitigate avoidance tendencies (Merten, 2021). For younger participants who primarily access news through social platforms, algorithmic filtering may reinforce selective exposure patterns while potentially reducing incidental exposure to diverse content. The interaction between user preferences and algorithmic systems creates complex dynamics where avoidance behaviors may be technologically amplified beyond individual intentions.

Our findings suggest that different demographic groups experience these algorithmic effects differently. Younger, digitally native participants are more adept at navigating algorithmic systems to curate preferred content. In contrast, older participants reported more frustration with algorithmic unpredictability. These differences highlight the need to examine news avoidance not merely as an individual choice but as the product of socio-technical systems that shape information availability and visibility.

5.3. Professional Perspectives on News Avoidance

Expert interviews provided valuable insights into the structural factors influencing news avoidance in Egypt. Media professionals emphasized how recent global events, particularly the war in Gaza, have intensified news fatigue among Egyptian audiences. A senior journalist observed that initial high engagement with crisis coverage eventually led to avoidance behaviors: “Consumers started to feel overwhelmed and saturated with the amount of repeated news reports covering the same single topic”.

This crisis fatigue manifested not as complete disengagement but as strategic exposure modulation. Participants described maintaining awareness through headline scanning while limiting in-depth engagement with distressing content—a selective consumption strategy rather than wholesale avoidance. This suggests that crisis news avoidance may function as an emotional regulation mechanism rather than apathy or disinterest. This pattern appeared particularly pronounced among female participants and those with family connections to affected regions, suggesting both demographic and psychosocial factors influence crisis news coping strategies.

Academic experts highlighted the role of Egypt’s media system in shaping avoidance behaviors. They pointed to how strict press regulations and state control of information create conditions that influence audience disengagement. A journalism professor noted “The number one issue affecting consumers’ trust in news sources may be their recognition of organizational agenda-setting attempts. Consumers understand that every channel functions as a voice for a certain entity, country, or ideology”.

Economic factors emerged as a significant theme in professional analysis. Media experts emphasized how Egypt’s current economic challenges influence news consumption patterns, with audiences increasingly focusing on news directly affecting their financial well-being. One media professional explained “Most Egyptians follow news that addresses economic topics, for example, currency rates and petrol prices, because they have high levels of awareness that these updates will impact them and their families”. This selective attention to economic news represents strategic engagement rather than avoidance.

However, our analysis also revealed that economic hardship contributes to avoidance behaviors through several mechanisms. First, the psychological burden of financial stress creates cognitive limitations that reduce the capacity for processing complex information, leading some participants to avoid news perceived as additionally taxing. Second, economic pressures create practical constraints on news consumption, with several participants noting reduced data plans and limited leisure time as barriers to engagement. Third, economic challenges create what Festinger (1957) described as cognitive dissonance when aspirational messaging in news content conflicts with lived experience, motivating selective avoidance of content that heightens this dissonance. These findings suggest economic factors shape news avoidance through content preferences and through broader psychological and practical constraints—a relationship requiring further investigation, particularly in developing economies.

These qualitative findings complement our quantitative results by providing a rich context for understanding how news avoidance manifests within Egypt’s unique media environment. The integration of focus group insights with expert perspectives reveals both individual-level motivations and broader structural factors that shape news avoidance behaviors in an authoritarian media system.

6. Discussion

This study contributes to understanding news avoidance by examining how this phenomenon manifests within an authoritarian media system. Our findings reveal complex relationships between news overload, trust in formal media, and selective attention in shaping news avoidance behaviors among Egyptian audiences. This section will discuss several theoretical and practical implications for journalism studies and media organizations and contextual factors specific to the Egyptian media system.

The strong relationship between news overload and avoidance behaviors (β = 0.481) provides compelling support for Media Saturation Theory in non-Western contexts. This finding suggests that cognitive overwhelm from excessive news exposure remains a powerful driver of avoidance behaviors across different media systems. However, our qualitative findings reveal distinct mechanisms of news overload in Egypt’s transitional system that differ substantially from democratic contexts.

Specifically, Egyptian audiences report three distinctive characteristics of news overload: first, homogeneity of content across supposedly diverse outlets creates echo chamber fatigue, where the same narratives are encountered repeatedly; second, perceived constraints on critical perspectives create information gaps that generate uncertainty rather than clarity; and third, the predictability of approved narratives diminishes informational utility, as participants expressed knowing “what will be said before it is said”. These patterns differ from democratic contexts, where news overload typically stems from competing perspectives and information abundance rather than narrative homogeneity (Damstra et al., 2023). This suggests that Media Saturation Theory requires contextual refinement when applied to transitional systems, as the psychological mechanisms driving avoidance behaviors may operate through different pathways despite producing similar outcomes.

Our findings both reinforce and challenge existing theoretical frameworks for understanding news avoidance. The strong relationship between news overload and avoidance behaviors aligns with previous research in democratic contexts (Song et al., 2016), suggesting that some universal cognitive mechanisms operate across different media systems. However, our findings challenge simplistic applications of selective exposure theory that presume significant audience choice.

In Egypt’s media environment, where content homogeneity limits meaningful selection, avoidance appears more contextually constrained than purely preference-driven. Additionally, our findings complicate institutional trust frameworks by revealing that distrust in Egypt operates not through wholesale rejection of news but through sophisticated verification strategies incorporating alternative sources. This suggests that existing theories require refinement when applied to transitional media systems.

Egypt differs in the persistence of strong traditional media institutions alongside digital alternatives, creating hybrid consumption patterns not observed in contexts with more rapid digital transitions. These insights suggest that news avoidance theory requires greater attention to institutional configurations specific to each national context, moving beyond Western-derived frameworks to account for different patterns of state-media-audience relationships.

Our focus on news overload, trust, and selective attention was guided by both theoretical foundations and preliminary qualitative insights. However, we acknowledge other potential predictors that merit consideration in future research. Political interest likely plays a significant role, particularly in transitional systems where political engagement may carry perceived risks (de Bruin et al., 2024). Media literacy represents another critical factor that could moderate the relationship between information exposure and avoidance behaviors (Wang et al., 2024). Economic considerations also warrant examination, both in terms of direct barriers to access and psychological burden during economic hardship. While our model demonstrated strong explanatory power (R² = 0.505), these additional factors could provide a more comprehensive understanding of news avoidance in Egypt’s complex media environment. Preliminary analysis of our qualitative data suggested these factors operate through rather than independent of our three primary variables, but direct measurement in future studies would enhance theoretical development.

Trust in formal media’s negative relationship with news avoidance (β = −0.265) extends our theoretical understanding of institutional trust in transitional media systems. While previous research has documented declining trust in news media globally, our findings suggest that distrust in transitional contexts manifests through distinctive strategic behaviors rather than wholesale rejection.

Our qualitative data provides compelling evidence for these strategic approaches. Participants described specific tactics, including cross-checking information across multiple sources, developing trusted verification networks through messaging apps, and using international sources as reality checks for domestic coverage. One 34-year-old male participant explained “I always watch the official news first to understand the government’s position, but then immediately check alternative sources to fill in what is missing”. Another participant described maintaining a mental translation guide for interpreting state-approved narratives: “When they say ’economic adjustments, I know to check inflation rates”. These sophisticated verification strategies demonstrate how Egyptian audiences maintain awareness of state-approved information while supplementing it through alternative channels. This nuanced relationship between trust and strategic consumption challenges simplified narratives about institutional trust in transitional systems and highlights audience agency even within constrained information environments.

Our findings suggest that news avoidance in Egypt’s transitional media system may strengthen rather than diminish alternative information networks, though this relationship requires further empirical investigation. Focus group participants who reported high levels of news avoidance from mainstream sources simultaneously described active engagement with alternative information channels, including independent digital platforms, exile media, and encrypted messaging groups. This pattern was particularly evident among younger participants and those with higher digital literacy, suggesting demographic factors mediate this relationship.

For example, several participants described using VPN services to access blocked websites while maintaining active WhatsApp groups dedicated to sharing news from non-mainstream sources. One participant explained “When I stopped watching TV news, I became more active in seeking information from people I trust”. While our current data provides preliminary support for this relationship between mainstream avoidance and alternative engagement, we acknowledge the need for a more systematic investigation of how avoidance behaviors reshape rather than simply reduce information flows. Future research should directly measure both mainstream avoidance and alternative channel engagement to establish more definitive empirical relationships between these behaviors.

The societal implications of news avoidance in authoritarian contexts extend beyond individual behavior to affect broader social and political dynamics. As audiences develop sophisticated strategies for navigating state-controlled media environments, their avoidance behaviors may paradoxically strengthen alternative information networks while weakening traditional media’s influence (Mano & El Mkaouar, 2022). This creates a unique dynamic where news avoidance, rather than simple disengagement, represents a complex audience adaptation to authoritarian media control. Such adaptation has significant implications for social cohesion, political awareness, and civic engagement, potentially creating parallel information ecosystems that challenge state narrative control while risking further social polarization (Scott & Ujvari, 2024).

The modest but significant relationship between selective attention and news avoidance (β = −0.184) provides new insights into how audiences navigate controlled media environments. Our qualitative findings suggest that Egyptian audiences have developed sophisticated strategies for selective consumption, particularly focusing on economic news that directly impacts their lives. Selective engagement is a coping mechanism for managing both information overload and state control of media narratives.

These findings have significant implications for journalism practice in authoritarian contexts. Media organizations operating under state control face particular challenges in maintaining audience engagement amid declining trust and increasing news fatigue. Our results suggest that addressing news overload through more focused, relevant coverage might be more effective than attempting to rebuild institutional trust directly. Egyptian audiences’ strong preference for economic news indicates potential strategies for maintaining engagement while working within system constraints. For journalists and editors working in these environments, this suggests prioritizing content directly relevant to audiences’ daily lives, particularly economic information, while carefully balancing the quantity of information to prevent cognitive overwhelm.

Beyond content considerations, delivery mechanisms require strategic attention. Media organizations should invest in developing more personalized news delivery systems that help audiences navigate information flows more effectively. Monitoring and following the general and specific interests of the public represents an essential first step, but implementation requires sophisticated audience analysis capabilities and content categorization systems. News organizations might benefit from creating distinct content streams—one addressing immediate economic concerns that capture initial attention and another providing broader contextual information for those seeking deeper engagement. Such approaches acknowledge audience agency within constrained media environments while potentially preserving journalism’s informational function even under authoritarian constraints. The study also advances methodological approaches to studying news avoidance. Our mixed-methods design revealed how quantitative broader structural factors in authoritarian media systems shape relationships between key variables. The integration of focus groups and expert interviews provided crucial context for interpreting statistical relationships, demonstrating the value of methodological triangulation in studying complex media phenomena.

Several limitations should be noted alongside their specific impacts on our findings. Social media recruitment likely overrepresents urban, educated, and digitally connected Egyptians. Consequently, our findings may underestimate structural barriers to news access facing rural and lower-income populations while potentially overrepresenting strategic avoidance behaviors that require digital literacy. The 77.5% of participants with bachelor’s degrees are triple Egypt’s national education profile, suggesting our results may not capture avoidance patterns among less formally educated citizens.

Our cross-sectional design offers valuable insights into current relationships between key variables but cannot establish causal directions or temporal development. News avoidance behaviors likely evolve in response to changing political and media conditions, particularly during social reform or policy shifts. Additionally, self-reported behavior measures may underestimate actual avoidance due to social desirability bias, particularly in contexts where civic engagement carries normative expectations.

Despite these limitations, our mixed-methods approach provides methodological triangulation that strengthens confidence in key findings, particularly regarding the mechanisms of news overload and strategic avoidance patterns. Future research should address these limitations through broader sampling strategies, longitudinal designs, and potentially observational methods to complement self-reported behaviors. These limitations suggest promising directions for future research. Comparative studies examining news avoidance across different authoritarian media systems could further illuminate how system characteristics shape audience behaviors. Additionally, investigating how digital platforms interact with traditional state control of media could enhance our understanding of contemporary news avoidance patterns.

7. Conclusions

This study provides significant insights into how news avoidance manifests within authoritarian media systems, offering both theoretical contributions and practical implications for journalism in non-Western contexts. Our findings demonstrate that while news overload remains a primary driver of avoidance behaviors, the mechanisms through which audiences disengage from news content are deeply influenced by the structural characteristics of authoritarian media systems.

The research agenda emerging from this study suggests five promising directions for advancing our understanding of news avoidance in contemporary media environments. First, future research should examine the dynamic interaction between digital platforms and state control of media. As social media platforms increasingly serve as primary news sources, understanding how algorithmic content delivery intersects with state narrative control becomes crucial. This line of inquiry could explore how audience agency in digital spaces challenges or reinforces traditional patterns of news avoidance in authoritarian systems.

Second, longitudinal studies tracking changes in news avoidance behaviors across significant political or economic events could illuminate how audience engagement patterns evolve in response to shifting media conditions. Such research could help identify critical moments when audiences are most susceptible to news fatigue or most open to re-engagement with news content. This temporal understanding could inform both theoretical models and practical strategies for maintaining audience engagement during periods of intense news coverage.

Third, comparative studies across different authoritarian media systems could enhance our theoretical understanding of how system characteristics shape avoidance behaviors at both individual and societal levels. By examining variations in state control, media ownership structures, and regulatory frameworks, researchers could develop more nuanced models of how news avoidance influences social cohesion and political awareness across different system types. Such comparative work could also identify successful strategies for maintaining audience engagement while accounting for the unique challenges posed by authoritarian control of information flow (Dimitrov, 2023). This research direction is particularly crucial for understanding how news avoidance behaviors might contribute to or hinder democratic transitions in authoritarian contexts.

Fourth, research exploring the intersection of news avoidance and emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence and automated content delivery, could provide valuable insights into future challenges and opportunities. As these technologies reshape news production and distribution, understanding their impact on audience engagement becomes increasingly important, especially in systems where technology deployment is subject to state control.

Finally, investigations into the relationship between news avoidance and civic engagement in authoritarian contexts could enhance our understanding of the media’s role in social and political participation. This line of inquiry could examine how selective news avoidance might serve as a form of political expression or resistance rather than simple disengagement.

These research directions collectively point toward a more comprehensive understanding of news avoidance as a complex phenomenon shaped by technological, institutional, and social forces. By pursuing these lines of inquiry, scholars can continue to build theoretical frameworks that better account for the diversity of global media environments while providing practical insights for journalism practitioners working within various system constraints.

The future of news avoidance research lies in recognizing and examining these complexities. We must move beyond simple models of audience disengagement to understand how different media systems create unique conditions for news consumption and avoidance. This expanded understanding will be crucial for developing theoretical frameworks and practical strategies to address journalism’s challenges in an increasingly complex global media landscape.