It Didn’t Go Away: The Political and Social Determinants of COVID-19 Mortality Rates across Counties in the United States
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. The Socio-Demographic Gradient of COVID-19
1.2. Political Views and the Political Environment
2. Materials and Methods
3. Results
4. Discussion
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable Name | Description and Source |
---|---|
Outcome | |
COVID-19 death rate | Cumulative deaths per 100,000 as of 1 December 2021 (USAFacts) |
Socio-economic traits | |
Gini index | Gini index of income inequality (2014–2018 ACS 5-year estimates) |
Median household income | Estimate of median household income, 2018 (U.S. Census Bureau) |
% Bachelor’s | Percent of adults with a bachelor’s degree or higher, 2014–2018 (U.S. Census Bureau) |
Rural | Rural-urban Continuum Code, 2013 (USDA ERS) |
Population composition | |
Population (ln) | Natural logarithm of population size (USAFacts) |
Population density | Land area density for population as per 2010 census (U.S. Census Bureau) |
% Black | Black or African American share of population, 2014–2018 (U.S. Census Bureau) |
% Hispanic | Hispanic share of population, 2014–2018 (U.S. Census Bureau) |
% Age > 85 | Share of population with age above 85, 2014–2018 (U.S. Census Bureau) |
Ideology | |
% Trump vote | Share of population voting for Trump in the 2020 presidential elections (MIT Election Data and Science Lab) |
% Evangelical | Evangelical Protestant; rates of adherence per 1000 population, 2010 (Grammich et al., 2018 [56]) |
Health | |
Death rate 2014–2019 | Age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 population, 2014–2019 (CDC) |
Health behavior | |
Mask usage | % Always or frequently wearing a mask (The New York Times and Dynata 2020) |
Healthcare | |
% Uninsured | Share of population with no health insurance coverage (2014–2018 ACS 5-year estimates) |
Primary care physician rate | Active Primary Care Physicians per 100,000 Population, 2018, state-level (AAMC) |
ICU beds | Number of ICU beds per county, 2018–19 (Kaiser Family Foundation) |
N | Mean | SD | Min. | Max. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
COVID-19 death rate | 3023 | 286.78 | 134.88 | 0.00 | 1008.35 |
Gini index | 3023 | 0.45 | 0.04 | 0.34 | 0.71 |
Median HH income | 3023 | 52,710.64 | 13,877.21 | 25,385.00 | 140,382.00 |
% Bachelor’s + | 3023 | 21.55 | 9.46 | 5.40 | 78.50 |
Rural | 3023 | 4.89 | 2.66 | 1.00 | 9.00 |
Population (ln) | 3023 | 10.38 | 1.41 | 6.98 | 16.12 |
Population density | 3023 | 265.93 | 1748.60 | 0.50 | 69,468.40 |
% Black | 3023 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
% Hispanic | 3023 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.96 |
% Age > 85 | 3023 | 2.37 | 0.83 | 0.55 | 7.54 |
% Trump vote | 3023 | 64.60 | 15.91 | 8.73 | 93.08 |
% Evangelical | 3023 | 23.32 | 16.04 | 0.00 | 130.87 |
Death rate 2014–2019 | 3023 | 821.98 | 144.54 | 266.20 | 1590.20 |
Mask usage | 3023 | 0.72 | 0.13 | 0.25 | 0.99 |
% Uninsured | 3023 | 9.52 | 4.90 | 1.37 | 40.91 |
PCP rate | 3023 | 87.75 | 12.08 | 65.30 | 134.30 |
ICU beds | 3023 | 24.60 | 85.94 | 0.00 | 2126.00 |
Variable | Coefficient | SE | Z | 95% CI |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gini index | 0.040 * | 0.020 | 1.984 | (0.000, 0.080) |
Median household income | 0.037 | 0.025 | 1.508 | (−0.011, 0.086) |
% Bachelor’s + | −0.089 ** | 0.033 | −2.704 | (−0.153, −0.024) |
Rural | −0.001 | 0.021 | −0.025 | (−0.042, 0.040) |
Population (ln) | 0.015 | 0.029 | 0.494 | (−0.043, 0.072) |
Population density | 0.029 * | 0.012 | 2.426 | (0.006, 0.053) |
% Black | 0.163 *** | 0.032 | 5.038 | (0.099, 0.226) |
% Hispanic | 0.183 *** | 0.027 | 6.811 | (0.131, 0.236) |
% Age > 85 | 0.321 *** | 0.027 | 12.002 | (0.269, 0.374) |
% Trump vote | 0.146 *** | 0.037 | 3.953 | (0.073, 0.218) |
% Evangelical | 0.041 | 0.024 | 1.708 | (−0.006, 0.087) |
Death rate 2014–2019 | 0.379 *** | 0.030 | 12.663 | (0.320, 0.438) |
Mask usage | −0.011 | 0.022 | −0.508 | (−0.055, 0.032) |
% Uninsured | 0.053 * | 0.026 | 2.065 | (0.003, 0.103) |
PCP rate | −0.099 *** | 0.025 | −3.892 | (−0.149, −0.049) |
ICU beds | −0.008 | 0.015 | −0.586 | (−0.037, 0.020) |
Constant | 0.011 | 0.026 | 0.440 | (−0.039, 0.062) |
Lambda | 0.522 *** | 0.023 | 23.102 | (0.478, 0.567) |
N | 3023 | |||
Pseudo R-squared | 0.4371 |
Variable | Coefficient | SE | Z | 95% CI |
---|---|---|---|---|
% Black | 0.251 *** | 0.031 | 8.129 | (0.190, 0.311) |
% Hispanic | 0.171 *** | 0.023 | 7.294 | (0.125, 0.217) |
% Trump vote | 0.304 *** | 0.024 | 12.697 | (0.257, 0.351) |
Death rate 2014–2019 | 0.374 *** | 0.025 | 15.198 | (0.325, 0.422) |
Constant | 0.007 | 0.028 | 0.250 | (−0.047, 0.061) |
Lambda | 0.541 *** | 0.021 | 25.672 | (0.500, 0.582) |
N | 3023 | |||
Pseudo R-squared | 0.3492 |
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Rambotti, S.; Wolski, C.; Anderson, K.F. It Didn’t Go Away: The Political and Social Determinants of COVID-19 Mortality Rates across Counties in the United States. COVID 2023, 3, 370-380. https://doi.org/10.3390/covid3030027
Rambotti S, Wolski C, Anderson KF. It Didn’t Go Away: The Political and Social Determinants of COVID-19 Mortality Rates across Counties in the United States. COVID. 2023; 3(3):370-380. https://doi.org/10.3390/covid3030027
Chicago/Turabian StyleRambotti, Simone, Caroline Wolski, and Kathryn Freeman Anderson. 2023. "It Didn’t Go Away: The Political and Social Determinants of COVID-19 Mortality Rates across Counties in the United States" COVID 3, no. 3: 370-380. https://doi.org/10.3390/covid3030027
APA StyleRambotti, S., Wolski, C., & Anderson, K. F. (2023). It Didn’t Go Away: The Political and Social Determinants of COVID-19 Mortality Rates across Counties in the United States. COVID, 3(3), 370-380. https://doi.org/10.3390/covid3030027