3.3.1. Collective Characterization of the Scenarios
The final activity of the participatory process consisted of comparing the perceptions of participants linked to the scenarios for the development of aquaculture in Monastir as described in
Section 2. The first results are attached to the individual assessment of scenarios.
Table 4 presents the collective characterization of the scenarios according to the 10 criteria within each group. Overall, the first three scenarios in the table (left-hand columns of
Table 4) tend to be characterized by a low environmental impact through State-managed projects that contribute to the quality of life of local communities while preserving other activities. On the other hand, the other three scenarios (right-hand columns of
Table 4) are more characterized by the three groups with high scores for economic criteria but very low scores in terms of environmental criteria and State-led management involving stakeholders. They are even seen as a threat to other traditional activities in the bay. There are minor deviations between groups in terms of the qualification of scenarios according to criteria. Some differences could be related to the heterogeneity of certain groups being more or less environment- or industry-centered. This is, for instance, the case for the third group (G3) that perceives the multi-use offshore platform as a way of developing aquaculture and generating economic benefits, employment, and wealth, when other groups perceive such platforms as a way of mowing aquaculture away from the coast and other uses. This is also the case of the first group (G1), which perceives the decline in aquaculture scenario as having lower environmental impacts and an increase in the quality of life of locals, which is the opposite perception of the two other stakeholder groups. However, apart from these few exceptions, the rankings remain relatively homogeneous and consensual at the collective level.
The cross-referencing of this collective work with the previous individual criteria ranking of each participant allows for providing each participant/stakeholder with his or her own most preferred and least popular scenarios, together with intermediate ones. In order to characterize his or her most and least popular scenarios, each participant could rank each scenario with colored stickers, with a green sticker representing the best scenario, a yellow sticker representing the second-best scenario, and a red sticker representing the worst, in accordance or not with the multicriteria analysis results for each participant (
Table 5). Everyone was then able to express their reasons for liking or disliking a scenario in front of the other participants, in order to highlight the diversity of points of view and to debate these differences.
The expression of individual choices underlines that if there is a consensus about the most rejected scenario, the “Stagnation of aquaculture in favor of the textile industry”, it is much more difficult to obtain unanimity on the most wanted scenarios assessed. Even if some are more appreciated, such as aquaculture development driven and monitored by the State—underlining a choice not opposed to aquaculture but rather questioning the way the development is thought about and controlled—differences can appear between groups. Similarly, there seems to be a more positive trend toward aquaculture in the Kuriat islands’ MPA, but solely for two groups, with some differences in the degree of support. This also suggests the existence of a certain porosity between the preferred and intermediate scenarios. It underlines that the sum of individual choices does not make the collective choice and positions can evolve when moving to the collective level considering additional constraints and benefits and learning from mutual exchanges.
3.3.2. Collective Scenario Choices
In order to reach a collective choice, the 10 criteria characterizing the proposed scenarios are again ranked, but at the collective level within each stakeholder group (
Table 6). This collective ranking was possible due to the continuous deliberation process in the former steps of the workshop and the mutual exchanges, something that would not have been directly feasible in the initial steps of the workshop. As explained in
Section 2, this collective reclassification of the criteria was performed in terms of their importance for society.
The ranking of the criteria was quite different from one group to another, and the participants had difficulty reaching an agreement. According to the three groups, the economic profitability of farms is not a priority for local people, but job creation is an important criterion for the governorate’s residents. Lastly, job creation can also be seen as being linked to alternative activities to aquaculture and not just dependent on aquaculture, which can lead to differences in perception. For Group 2, people are not concerned about the state of the environment, but what counts first is the price of fish. For Group 1, prioritizing the first five criteria is fairly easy, but prioritizing the last five leads to a number of discussions. The agents in charge of developing aquaculture could not accept a poor ranking of the “Economic profitability of farms” criterion, which was tantamount to rejecting the activity and reintroducing the aquaculture versus environment debate, which had not really been tackled head-on. The “Quality of life” and “Landscape quality” criteria are already included in the “Low environmental impact” criterion, which also explains their position at the end of the ranking. Lastly, the position in the ranking of certain criteria is completely opposite depending on the group. For example, the “Quality of life for the people of Monastir” is ranked first and second for Groups 2 and 3 and ninth for Group 1, while the “Low environmental impact” criterion is ranked first for Group 1 and ninth for Group 2. This can be explained in part by the fact that some groups were composed mainly of people in charge of managing or supporting aquaculture, despite the initial attempt to form more balanced groups in terms of stakeholder diversity.
There was a lot of discussion about what was important to local people. It was difficult for participants to detach themselves from their own perceptions and those of their institution when ranking these criteria. For some participants, the criteria to which they attached importance clearly led to scenarios that, intuitively, might not be conducive to social acceptability.
In a similar way to the assessment of scenarios at the individual level, the cross-referencing of the collective ranking of criteria (
Table 6) together with the characterization of scenarios (
Table 4) allows for providing the most preferred and least popular scenarios at the collective level, i.e., at the group level and for the population of the Bay of Monastir (
Table 7). This builds the initial conditions for the social acceptability of aquaculture development and expresses the conditions for a project adapted to the territory.
The scenarios that emerge are those that involve aquaculture in a regulated, monitored, and constrained context, such as (1) a multi-purpose platform that can design aquaculture development in a technical and integrated way; (2) aquaculture constrained by the preservation of environmental drivers such as marine-protected areas (MPAs); (3) aquaculture that is supported and highly supervised by the State, which ensures balances and trade-offs in support of sustainability; a liberal context is not accepted and, as a result, strong regulation is requested; (4) a scenario of stagnation or decline of aquaculture in favor of a dominant and impacting industry such as textiles is even more strongly rejected. An additional scenario (5) concerns an extreme proposal designing the extension of aquaculture under an industrial–intensive model, which is not realistic in the local context but discussing this model is a way of raising issues of social acceptability. The collective vision with regard to the issues of acceptability by society brings up the most important criteria for the implementation of the scenarios by changing the individual positions.
The results at the group level showed that in Group 1, the quality of life of residents was put forward as one of the important criteria to be considered in the scenarios, but a better understanding of their quality-of-life criterion was required for decision-making. The group’s concern was therefore to find a balance between environmental preservation, biodiversity, and jobs, which would define the quality-of-life criterion. The “Multi-use offshore platform” scenario reflects a desire to position aquaculture outside an impact perimeter. Placing aquaculture far from the coastline and integrating it with other activities likely to have environmental impacts on the coastal area is considered a good way to avoid the main issues associated with aquaculture development. This is also a way of preserving the economic interest of the activity, particularly in terms of jobs. The economic benefits of this platform scenario are nevertheless perceived as uncertain, given the physical distance from the activity to the coastline and the difficulty of assessing the feasibility of such platforms. This is why the group was also in favor of the government-supported aquaculture scenario. This scenario is based on controlling the aquaculture extension to ensure compliance with regulations in line with the collective interests of locals. However, the capacity of the State to enforce and control the regulations was questioned and led the group to support the “Aquaculture in the marine protected area” scenario the most. Nevertheless, the marine-protected area was not seen as an opportunity for development, but rather as an efficient method of constraining aquaculture development. The composition of this group thus expressed a more environmentalist feeling but considered the necessity of support for economic development for Monastir.
Group 2 rejected any decline or stagnation in the aquaculture business. The multi-use offshore platform was seen as an opportunity for unconstrained development and innovation while reducing the environmental impact of the activity. The State was seen as the facilitator and guarantor of development through the State-led aquaculture scenario. The reasons for supporting this scenario differ from those of Group 1. The rejection of constraints on aquaculture development led to the rejection of aquaculture in protected marine areas and strong support for the scenario of industrial aquaculture in a liberal context, also seen as a context conducive to innovation. The exercise of positioning oneself as an inhabitant of the governorate of Monastir brought out the scenario of the multi-use platform more strongly, on which none of the participants had positioned themselves at the previous stage.
Group 3 was sensitive to the multi-use offshore platform scenario, but as the discussion progressed, especially from the moment they were asked to re-think the criteria of acceptability, the participants realized that the scenarios they preferred were not the right ones for the population as a whole. Consequently, they ended up supporting that the best scenarios (understood for the population and not for them) are “The Kuriat Islands Marine Protected Area” and “Aquaculture, an activity driven by the State” because these are median scenarios.
By getting stakeholders to think about what makes a project acceptable or unacceptable for the population and by breaking away from the exclusivity of their individual objectives, the collective expression of choices in terms of scenario evolves in relation to the sum of individual choices. This was the case for the scenario based on multi-use offshore platforms. This scenario, previously seen as more mixed in terms of individual choices, became more consensual at the collective level in terms of the importance it represents for the inhabitants of the governorate of Monastir. This a priori utopian scenario of a multi-use offshore platform, by integrating the concerns of individuals with different motives, makes it possible to reach a certain consensus. It reflects the important factors to be taken into consideration: economic development, multi-activity, mitigation of environmental impacts, and the distance of aquaculture from potentially conflictual areas. On the other hand, there is a consensus against the scenario of stagnation of aquaculture in favor of the textile industry. Finally, the preponderant role of the State is put forward or desired either as a facilitator, guardian, or guarantor of compliance with regulations, although there are fears about the effectiveness of its means of action and their insufficiency.
By integrating the criteria of social acceptability, the collective succeeded in changing its individual positions to define the conditions of this acceptability expressed through the scenarios. The aquaculture in MPAs, State-driven aquaculture, and a decline in aquaculture scenarios also score well but are not unanimously supported. While participants often expressed a preference for more environmental scenarios, they nevertheless chose or wished for stronger involvement of the State in aquaculture.
The scenarios thus fit together according to the groups to form typical aquaculture development stories that meet the criteria and conditions for the social acceptability of aquaculture developments. The scenarios proposed, not in terms of their feasibility but rather in terms of the panorama of conditions of acceptability that they express, thus take on their full dimension through the complementarity or exclusivity of the conditions for their development. They, therefore, make it possible to provide the basis for a development project suitable to the specific context of Monastir Bay, which would incorporate the conditions of acceptability that they have revealed.