1. Introduction
Measuring dissimilarity between strings is a fundamental problem in computer science, with applications in computational biology, speech recognition, machine learning, and other fields. One commonly used metric is the edit distance(or Levenshtein distance), defined as the minimum number of substitutions, deletions, and insertions necessary to transform one string into the other.
It is natural to ask what is the expected distance between two randomly generated strings, as the string size grows; knowledge of the asymptotic behavior has proved useful in computational biology [
1] and in nearest neighbor search [
2], to mention a few examples.
In computational biology, the question often arises whether two strings (e.g., two DNA reads) are noisy copies of the same source or of non-overlapping sources. In several cases of interest, the source is modeled as a sequence of independent and identically distributed symbols (see, e.g., [
1,
3], with reference to DNA) and the noise is modeled with substitutions, insertions, and deletions (a good approximation for technologies like PacBio and MinION [
4]). Then, the statistical inference may be based on a comparison of the distance between the observed strings with either the expected distance between a string and a noisy copy of itself, or the expected distance between two random strings.
Even for uniform and independent strings, the study of the expected edit distance appears to be challenging and little work has been reported on the problem. In contrast, the closely related problem of computing the expected length of the longest common subsequence has been extensively studied, since the seminal work by Chvátal and Sankoff [
5].
Using Fekete’s lemma, it can be shown that both metrics tend to grow linearly with the string size
n [
6]. Specifically, let
denote the expected edit distance between two random, independent strings of length
n on a
k-ary alphabet; then
approaches (from above) a limit
. Similarly, let
denote the expected length of the longest common subsequence; then
approaches (from below) a limit
. The
’s are known as the Chvátal-Sankoff constants. The efficient computation of the exact values of
and
is an open problem. This paper establishes the computability of
, for any
k, and proposes methods for estimating and bounding
, also reporting numerical results for various alphabet sizes
k.
From the perspective of computational complexity, we remark that, for the problem of computing , given input n (for a fixed k), only algorithms that run in doubly exponential time and use exponential space are currently known, including those presented in this paper. Observe that the input size is , the number of bits needed to specify the problem input n. Similar statements hold for the computation of . Therefore, at the state of the art, we can place these problems in the complexity class EXPSPACE ⊆ 2-EXPTIME, but not in EXPTIME and, a fortiori, not in PSPACE ⊆ EXPTIME. Technically, these are traditionally defined as classes of decision problems, hence our statements strictly apply to suitable decision versions of computing the constants of interest. Specifically, the decision version of computing could take as inputs a (positive) integer n and an integer r such that and output the r-th digit of . (Observe that , whence can be expresses with bits.) Analogous considerations can be made for the problem of computing the most significant bits of (or ). Here, the input size is and the time becomes triple exponential in the input size. Whether these problems inherently exhibit high complexity or they can be solved efficiently by exploiting a not yet uncovered deeper structure remains to be seen.
1.1. Related Work
The guaranteed, deterministic bounds presented in this paper were first published in [
7]. A preliminary version of this article was published in [
8] and cited in the subsequent work by Rosenfeld [
9] discussed below. Details on additions and improvements of this article with respect to the conference version [
7] are given in
Section 1.3.
There is limited literature directly pursuing bounds and estimates for . It is also interesting to review results on : on the one hand, bounds to give bounds to ; on the other hand, techniques for analyzing can be adapted for analyzing .
The only published estimates of
can be found in [
1] which gives
for the quaternary alphabet and
for the binary alphabet. Estimates of
are given by Bundschuh [
10], in particular
and
. A similar value is reported in [
11], which gives
. Estimates of
by sampling are given by [
12]; their conjecture that
appears to be at odds with the estimate in [
10]. In [
13], the conjecture
is proposed. They also derive a closed form for the limit constant when only one string is random and the other is a
periodic string containing all symbols of
.
The best published analytical lower bounds to
are
for a quaternary alphabet and
for a binary alphabet [
1]. Recently, Rosenfeld [
9] published the first systematic study of upper bounds to
. Using an adaptation of the technique developed by Lueker for
[
14], they established
and
(as well as bounds for different values of
k). The best known analytical lower and upper bounds to
are given by [
14] and improved by [
15], who obtained
. For larger alphabets, the best lower bounds are given by [
15] and the best upper bounds are given by [
11], including
. From known relations between the edit distance and the length of the longest common subsequence, it follows that
. Thus, upper and lower bounds to
can be respectively obtained from lower and upper bounds to
. From
of [
14], we obtain
, which is tighter than the bound given in [
1]. Instead
of [
11] yields
, which is weaker than the bound
[
1]. From the weaker relation
, ref. [
2] obtained the looser bound
. In this paper, we derive improved bounds, for both
and
, as well as bounds on
, for values of
k not fully addressed by earlier literature. Some of our techniques resemble those used in [
16] for estimating
.
Table 1 shows lower bounds to
for various values of
k based on this work and on that of previous authors. Lower bounds from [
11,
14] are obtained from upper bounds to
, which we have translated into
. Dančík reported values of the bound only for
. Lueker reported only the numerical upper bound to
; his computational approach is interesting and sophisticated, but its time and space are exponential with
k. Experimenting with (a minor adaptation of) the software provided by the author, we have not been able to compute
within reasonable time. We have obtained the values reported in the Ganguly et al. column by numerically solving their equations (in [
1], only the values for
and
were reported). The equations underlying the results in the rightmost column of
Table 1 are developed in
Section 6, together with a rigorous analysis of their numerical solution.
To assess the tightness of bounds to
, several authors have investigated the rate of convergence of
to
. The bound
has been obtained by [
17] and, with a smaller constant, by [
18]. Lueker [
14] introduced a sequence of upper bounds
converging to
and satisfying
, where the time complexity and the space complexity of computing
increase exponentially with
h. Observing that
h is in turn exponential in the number
of desired bits for
and that
is exponential in the input size
, we see that computation time is a triple exponential. No study of the rate of convergence of
to
has been published. In this paper, we show that
, exploiting a framework developed in [
18].
Recently, Tiskin [
19] has established that
is an algebraic number, introducing novel ideas, which may open new perspectives on the analysis of
and
, for any
k.
1.2. Paper Contributions and Organization
The notation and definitions used throughout this paper are given in
Section 2. In
Section 3, an upper bound
is derived, for each
, where
is a precisely specified function (independent of
k). This implies
, where the interval can be made arbitrarily small by choosing a suitably large
n. One corollary is the computability of the real number
, for each
. Unfortunately, the algorithm underlying the computability proof is of little practical use, since the only known method to exactly compute
is by direct application of its definition, resulting in
time. Even after some improvement presented in
Section 5, the upper bound
is practically computable only for small values of
k and
n. Moreover, for the feasible values of
n,
is too large for the lower bound
to be useful. These considerations motivate the exploration of alternate approaches.
In
Section 4, an analysis, based on McDiarmid’s inequality, is developed for Monte Carlo estimates of
obtained from the edit distance of a sample of
N pairs of strings. The analysis yields the radius
of confidence intervals for
, in terms of
n,
N, and the desired confidence level
. The (sequential) time to obtain an estimate can be approximated as
, where
is of the order of 5 ns, on a typical state of the art processor core. Rather large values of
n can then be dealt with. As an indication, a
confidence interval of radius
is obtained for
in about 43 min. The corresponding confidence interval for
has radius
.
In
Section 5, upper bounds to
by exact computation of
for small values of
n are obtained, by introducing an
time algorithm that, while still exponential in
n, is (asymptotically and practically) faster than the straightforward,
time, algorithm. When
k is of the order of a few dozens, only very small values of
n are feasible and
does not differ appreciably from the quantity
, which satisfies
, as it can be easily shown by allowing only substitutions (cf. Hamming distance).
In
Section 6, a lower bound
is established, for each
. A counting argument provides a lower bound to the number of string pairs with distance at least
; an asymptotic analysis provides conditions on
under which the contribution to
of the remaining string pairs vanishes with
n. A careful study leads to a numerical algorithm to compute
, the supremum of the
’s satisfying such conditions, with any desired accuracy,
. Since, as shown in
Section 6,
, the interval
, which contains
, has size vanishing with increasing
k. For
k large enough, it becomes a subset of a confidence interval obtained with comparable computational effort. As an example,
, placing
in an interval of size smaller than
. To achieve
requires
. On a single core, computing the edit distance for just one pair of strings of length
would take time
years, whereas computing
took just 14 milliseconds, using a straightforward, non-optimized implementation.
By applying the above methodologies, we numerically derive guaranteed as well as statistical estimates for specific
’s and
’s. In particular,
Table 2 summarizes our numerical results for various alphabet sizes. For each
k, the table reports an interval that provably contains
and a (narrower) interval that contains
with confidence
. For the confidence interval, more details are provided in
Section 4, while for the guaranteed bounds, details are given in
Section 5 and
Section 6.
In
Section 7, we wonder about the asymptotic behavior of
, with respect to
k. We propose and motivate the conjecture that
for some constant
. Numerical evidence indicates that perhaps
.
Finally,
Section 8 presents conclusions and further directions of investigation.
3. Rate of Convergence and Computability of
For each
n,
is a rational number, which can be computed, according to Equation (
3), by exhaustively enumerating all pairs
of strings in
and accumulating the corresponding values
, which can be obtained with any algorithm for the exact edit distance. On the other hand, the limit constant
is known to exist as a real number, whose rationality remains an open problem. In this section, we show that, for every
k, this number is computable, according to the following (standard) definition.
Definition 1
(Computability of a real number)
. A real number ζ is computable if there exists an algorithm that, given as input a rational number , outputs a rational number , such that .
As shown in [
33], the subadditivity of a sequence of rational numbers, while sufficient to guarantee the existence of a limit (Fekete’s Lemma, [
34]), is not sufficient to guarantee its computability which, if present, requires an additional argument. For
, such an argument can be provided along the following steps:
Prove that, for some computable function
, we have
Show that there is an algorithm which, given a rational number
, computes an integer
such that
Let
and observe that
thus complying with Definition 1 (with
and
), since
is computable from
and
is computable from
.
To obtain a bound
such that Equation (
6) is satisfied, we show how the edit distance problem can be cast within a framework developed in [
18], to analyze the limit average behavior of certain functions of random string pairs on a finite alphabet
. These functions are formally defined next.
Definition 2.
Let be a symmetric (), non-negative, real function and let δ be a real number. The score of a pair of strings , with respect to a given alignment , is defined asThe score of the string pair is the maximum score over all possible alignments: Next, we express the edit distance in terms of a suitable score.
Proposition 1. For letand let . Then, for , Proof. Considering a given alignment
, we can write
Recalling Lemma 1, the quantity in the last row can be recognized as the cost of the simple scripts
transforming
x into
y, with alignment
. Further recalling that optimal scripts are simple, we conclude that maximizing the score with respect to the alignment minimizes the cost of the edit script, whence the claimed Equality (
9). □
The preceding proposition enables the application of the following far reaching result to the analysis of the average edit distance.
Theorem 1 ([
18])
. Let X and Y be random strings in , whose symbols are all mutually independent and equally distributed. Let , where E denotes the expectation operator, and let . Thenwhere and . The preceding theorem makes no assumption on the probability distribution of the symbols. Moreover, is independent of such distribution, although the quantities and l are not. Here, we assume the uniform distribution, upon which we have based the definition of . As a corollary of Theorem 1 and Proposition 1, we obtain the computability of .
Theorem 2. For any integer , the limit constant defined in Equation (4) satisfies the boundfor . Therefore, is a computable real number. Proof. It is an exercise to see that, for the score function
of Proposition 1,
, for any
k. Correspondingly, we have
. We also observe that, with
, using Equation (
9), we have
Thus, Equation (
11) follows from Equation (
10), with
, considering that
. Finally, it is straightforward to prove that there is an integer
such that
is strictly decreasing for
and that
is a computable function of the rational number
. □
Interestingly,
, hence
, is independent both of the alphabet size,
k, and of the probabilities of symbols in the alphabet
. However, computing
, to obtain a deterministically guaranteed
-approximation of
, will require work increasing with
k, at least with the currently known approaches that are sensitive to the number
of strings of length
n, as we will see in the coming sections. Moreover,
increases more than quadratically with
(see Equation (
11)), making the approach completely impractical. More specifically, to obtain
bits of
we need
, so that
and
, which is a triple exponential in the problem size
.
Remark 1. Although, both for simplicity and for homogeneity with other sections, we have stated Theorem 2 for the case of uniform distribution on the alphabet symbols, the arguments that have been developed are easily adapted to establish the computability for the analog of , under any distribution. In fact, as already observed, is independent of the distribution and the quantities analog to the ’s are trivially (although inefficiently) computable by summing the distances over all pairs , duly weighted by their probabilities.
We point out that, in the same spirit of this section, the computability of
can be derived from any of the rate-of-convergence bounds given by [
14,
17,
18].
4. Monte Carlo Estimates of
In this section, motivated by the difficulty of the exact computation, we develop an analysis of Monte Carlo estimates of , by sampling, and translate them into estimates of , using Theorem 2. We will see how can be estimated with high confidence and good accuracy for values of n up to a quarter million, with less than one core-hour of computation. For , we achieve an error of the order of .
Intuitively, for fixed
k and
n, we expect the estimate error to be proportional to
, where
N is the number of samples (string pairs), and to the standard deviation
of the single sample
. Experimentally, this standard deviation appears to decrease a bit faster than
, (We do not report here on this experimental observation systematically; however, estimates of
for some values of
n can be found in
Table 3) with the implication that, to obtain the same error on
, fewer samples suffice for larger
n. However, the behavior of the standard deviation does not appear easy to establish analytically. Fortunately, the edit distance function has the property that, if only one position is modified in just one of the input strings, the (absolute value of the) variation of the distance is at most 1. This property enables the use of McDiarmid’s inequality to bound from above the probability that
deviates from the mean by more than a certain amount, by a negative exponential in the square of that amount. This paves the way to the desired analysis. In fact, McDiarmid’s inequality can be applied directly to the average over
N samples, dealing in a uniform way with the “averaging” effect within a single pair of strings and across multiple pairs.
To help navigate this section, we preview its results, with a preliminary interpretation.
In
Section 4.1, we present Monte Carlo estimates of
for which we develop confidence intervals based on McDiarmid’s inequality. The results for the quaternary alphabet (column
of
Table 3) show that these values converge from above to
. We observe that the differences
decrease with
n, suggesting that the estimates become more precise as
n increases, even if the confidence intervals become wider, due to the smaller sample size
N, manageable within a given computational budget. The dependence of
upon
k is investigated
Table 4. Here, all confidence intervals have the same width, since the same values of
n and
N are used for different
k’s.
In
Section 4.2, we derive estimates of
(the limit of
) and corresponding confidence intervals. These estimates for
(column
in
Table 5) are obtained as the center point of a confidence interval depending on both statistical interval and the bound
on
. Interestingly, the width of such interval is largely due to
. Furthermore, the bound appears to be loose, since the values
converge to
from below, whereas the
converge from above.
Table 6 presents estimates of
for various
k, along with confidence intervals (all of equal width, as the same
n and
N have been fixed for all
k’s). The comparison between statistical estimates of
and confidence intervals for
is also visually illustrated in
Figure 1.
4.1.
Given
N random and independent pairs of strings
from
, we consider the random variable
Clearly, . To assess the quality of as an estimate for , we resort to McDiarmid’s inequality, briefly reviewed next.
Proposition 2 ([
35])
. Let be a vector of independent random variables. Let be a real function and let be a real constant such that, if and differ in at most one component, then . Then, for every , In the present context, based on the previous proposition, we can formulate confidence intervals for , as follows.
Proposition 3 (Confidence intervals for
)
. For any , the (random) interval is a confidence interval for the parameter , with confidence level , that is: Proof. We apply Proposition 2 to the function
f given by the rightmost term in Equation (
12), with
being the concatenation the
strings
’s and
’s, each comprising
n variables (over
), so that
. We can set
, since changing one string position changes the sum of the
N edit distances by at most 1, and the quantity
times the sum by at most
. Therefore, considering that
, we can write:
Symmetrically, it can be shown that
Combining Inequalities (
15) and (
16), after simple algebra, yields Inequality (
14). □
Remark 2. Propositions 2 and 3 only require that the symbols of the random strings are statistically independent, not necessarily with the same distribution. The numerical results reported next refer to the special case where all symbols are uniformly distributed, which underlies the definition of and . However, the approach could be straightforwardly applied to other, possibly position-dependent, distributions. Interestingly, for given n and N, the width of the confidence interval, for a given confidence level (e.g., in Table 3), is independent of the distribution. Table 3 reports estimates based on Monte Carlo estimates, within the framework of Proposition 3. The alphabet size is
, a case of special interest in DNA analysis (e.g., [
1,
36]). For the string length
n, the values considered are the powers of two from
to
= 262,144. For each
n, the number of samples
N has been chosen as
. This choice (roughly) equalizes the amount of (sequential) computation time devoted to each
n, when the edit distance for a sample pair is computed by a quadratic algorithm, say, in time
, for some constant
, making the overall time for
N samples
. In our experiments, this becomes
2560 s ≈ 43 min, where we measured
s ≈ 4.66 ns, on a state-of-the-art processor core. From Inequality (
14), straightforward manipulations show that, if the target is a confidence level
, then the radius
of the confidence interval becomes:
Choosing
and recalling that, in our experiments, we have set
, the above formula becomes
Thus, for
, we have
. For
, we have
. The values of
have been used, together with the experimental values of
, to obtain the confidence intervals reported in the last column of
Table 3, as
.
Table 4 reports estimates of
for various alphabet sizes
k. The confidence intervals shown in the last column of the table are based on the confidence level
. The estimates are obtained from numerical experiments involving
random pairs of strings of length
. Since the radius of the confidence interval only depends on
,
n, and
N (but not
k), the same value
applies to all
k’s. Notice that the standard deviation
tends to decrease with
k; this makes intuitive sense since, for fixed
n, as
k increases, the probability that every symbol that appears in one string is distinct from every symbol that appears in the other string approaches 1, so that almost all pairs of strings have distance
n, hence the variance is negligible.
7. A Conjecture on the Asymptotic Behavior of
Unlike the previous sections of this paper, the present one is rather speculative and is meant to to take some rather preliminary steps toward the understanding of the asymptotic behavior of with k. To focus the exploration, we formulate a specific conjecture, namely that for some constant . Essentially, we are conjecturing that the limit is finite. The bound follows from (the expected Hamming distance per symbol). The discussion below provides context and motivation for the conjecture, and contemplates the more specific hypothesis that .
In the context of the LCS problem, ref. [
38] have proven the conjecture, proposed by [
39], that
. As a corollary, we have that, for large
k,
. However, our intuition is that, although for large
n and
k we can expect an LCS of length approximately
, it would be too costly, in terms of insertions and deletions, to align more than
matches, so that, ultimately, for large
k, we expect
We tentatively investigate the conjecture numerically, by considering Monte Carlo estimates of the quantity . Unfortunately, obtaining such estimates with the required precision presents some challenges.
Since we expect values of
not much larger than 1, we need the error on
, hence on
, to be a fraction of
, a constraint that becomes increasingly stringent as
k increases. In order to guarantee a sufficient upper bound on the error, based on Proposition 3 and its corollary Equation (
17), the necessary values of
n and
N quickly become prohibitive, as
k increases. However, we suspect that these errors bounds do become rather loose, for large
k. More specifically, we hypothesize that, for
with large
k, the standard deviation of
can be approximated as
. This is based on the intuition that, for large
k, the edit distance behaves similarly to the Hamming distance
, whose standard deviation can be easily determined to be
. We have tested this hypothesis by experimentally estimating the standard deviation of
, for
and
, based on
independent pairs of random strings. The estimated value turned out to be
, well in line with our assumption that the standard deviation is approximately
.
Table 9 shows estimates of
for
and
. Highlighted in bold face are the entries (33 in number) for which the hypothesized statistical error
on
is at most
, that is,
. We can observe that, where the hypothesized error is small enough,
. We remark that, although to cope with the quadratic complexity of the edit distance computation we have considered only one pair of random strings for each
entry in
Table 9, the consistency of the numerical value of
across the 33 bold entries, obtained from statistically independently samples, does lend some support to the sub-conjecture
.
Of course, how well
approximates
depends on how well
approximates
. The quality of the latter approximation increases for large
k, where the the bound provided by Theorem 2 becomes loose. In fact, putting together various results, we have that
We can see that the difference between the last and the first term, hence the difference
between the intermediate terms, vanishes when
k diverges. The quantitative impact on the difference
remains to be seen, but the relative stability of the bold entries in each column of
Table 9 seems compatible with assuming a small impact. Of course, this section remains in the realm of conjectures, which will hopefully provide some motivation for rigorous analysis that may confirm as well as refute them.
8. Conclusions and Further Questions
In this paper, we have explored ways to compute Monte Carlo estimates, upper bounds, and lower bounds to the asymptotic constant characterizing the expected edit distance between random, independent strings. We have presented the theoretical basis for various approaches and used them to obtain numerical results for some alphabet sizes
k, which improve over previously known values [
1]. However, there is still a significant gap between upper and lower bounds that can be actually computed in a reasonable time. Below, we outline a number of open questions worthy of further investigation.
The approaches proposed here can be extended to the study of other statistical properties of the edit distance for a given length n, e.g., the standard deviation, which has been widely studied in the context of the longest common subsequence. Ultimately, a characterization of the full distribution would be desirable.
The exact rate of convergence
, or even just its asymptotic behavior, remains to be determined. In particular, we are not aware of any significant lower bound to
to be compared with the upper bound
. Moreover, this upper bound is oblivious to
k, whereas the rate of convergence is affected by
k, as indicated by Equation (
40).
From Proposition 8 and a straightforward analysis of “Hamming scripts”, which use only matches and substitutions, we know that , (where ); what is the exact asymptotic behavior of ? We have conjectured that, asymptotically, approaches , for some constant ; but whether the conjecture holds, and if so for which value of , remains to be seen.
Of mathematical interest, is the question whether
is a rational or an algebraic number. The answer could depend upon
k. The recent work of [
19] on the algebraic nature of
indicates that this line of investigation may lead to uncovering deep combinatorial properties that can shed light on various aspects of the subject, well beyond mere mathematical curiosity.
The analysis of the statistical error could be somewhat improved, if the experimental evidence that the standard deviation of is were corroborated analytically. The dependence upon k could also play a role here.
The complexity of computing, say, the most significant h bits of remains a wide open question. The only known lower bound is , based on the input and output size. It is a far cry from the current upper bound, which is doubly exponential in . However, a deeper understanding of the distribution and symmetries of the edit distance is likely to be required before the computation time of can be significantly improved.
The lower bounds presented in
Section 6 are based on upper bounds to the number of optimal scripts of a given cost
r. Our counting argument could be refined to take into account some properties of optimal edit scripts. For example, in an optimal script, an insertion cannot immediately precede or follow a deletion (since the same result could be achieved by just one substitution). Furthermore, it would be easy to show that, for many pairs of strings, multiple scripts are counted by our argument. Part of the difficulty with improving script counting comes from the analytical tractability of the resulting combinatorial expressions, which would be far more complicated than Equation (
28).
Another potential weakness of our lower bound is that it is derived from a lower bound to that must hold for every . If, as n goes to infinity, the fraction of strings with eccentricity significantly smaller than the average were to remain sufficiently high, then the approach would be inherently incapable of yielding tight bounds. On the other hand, preliminary efforts seem to indicate that characterizing the strings with minimum eccentricity is not straightforward. In contrast, it is a relatively simple exercise to prove that the strings of maximum eccentricity are those where all positions contain the same symbol and that their eccentricity equals .
In terms of applications, it would be interesting to explore the role of statistical properties of the edit distance in string alignment and other key problems in DNA processing and molecular biology. One motivation is provided by the error profile of reads coming from third generation sequencers (e.g., PacBio), where sequencing errors can be modeled as edit operations. In this context, it would be important to generalize the analysis to non-uniform string distributions, whether defined analytically or from empirical data, such as the distribution of substrings from the human DNA. As briefly discussed in
Section 4 and
Section 5, the approach we have presented for Monte Carlo estimates and for exact estimates via the Coalesced Dynamic Programming algorithm can easily handle arbitrary symbol distributions, as long as the symbols are statistically independent. The extension of the lower bounds of
Section 6 appears less straightforward.
Also of great interest would be to analyze the expected distance between noisy copies of two independent strings, as well as between a string and a noisy copy of itself, when the noise can be modeled in terms of edit operations.
While it is natural to begin investigating questions in the simplest scenarios, which for the present investigation is represented by strings with independent symbols, in several application contexts, the assumption of independence is not satisfied. Hence, future work should go in the direction of removing this assumption. However, while the experimental evidence may clearly indicate that some sequences exhibit a non trivial degree of intersymbol dependence, for example because they are compressible, such dependence has not been satisfactorily captured by well defined stochastic models. Therefore, it is likely that, in the near future, dependent models will be studied more because they have a well understood structure (say, Markov models) than because the are known to capture natural phenomena. Finding the right models, perhaps based on variants of transformers, is probably the main key step, to enable a better connection between theory and applications.