Forecasting

Wholesale sales value is one of the key elements included in the coincident indicator series of the indexes of business conditions in Japan. The objectives of this study are twofold. The first is to comprehend features of dynamic structure of various components for 12 business types of the wholesale sales in Japan, focusing on the period from January 1980 to December 2022. The second is to elucidate effect of business cycles on the behavior of each business type of wholesale sales. Specifically, we utilize our moving linear model approach to decompose monthly time-series data of wholesale sales into a seasonal component, an unusually varying component containing outliers, a constrained component, and a remaining component. Additionally, we construct a distribution-free dynamic linear model and examine the time-varying relationship between the decomposed remaining component, which contains cyclical variation, in each business type of the wholesale sales and that in the coincident composite index. Our proposed approach reveals complex dynamics of various components of time series on wholesale sales. Furthermore, we find that different business types of the wholesale sales exhibit diverse responses to business cycles, which are influenced by macroeconomic conditions, government policies, or exogenous shocks. Full article

In this study, an aircraft icing diagnosis and forecasting method is constructed and hindcast for 25 collected spring icing cases over Eastern China based on two commonly used aircraft icing diagnostic methods (hereinafter referred to as the IC index method and the TF empirical method, respectively) and ERA5 reanalysis data as the atmospheric environmental field for icing occurrence. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of aircraft icing accumulation occurrence over typical cities at different latitudes in China are calculated separately, and the spatial and temporal distribution of icing accumulation areas over Xinchang, Zhejiang Province in China during one case of cold air activity is simulated. Accordingly, several application scenarios for the application of methods to forecast aircraft icing accumulation are proposed. The results indicate that among the selected icing cases, the diagnosis accuracy of the IC index method and the TF empirical method is 80% and 92%, respectively. The TF empirical method takes into account the effects of aircraft flight speed and dynamic warming, and shows better correlation with ice water particle concentration and cloud cover in medium and low clouds. However, the predicted icing accumulation intensity predicted by the TF empirical method is not accurate enough without the real flight speed of the aircraft, and there are more empty forecasts above 400 hPa. In practical applications, both the IC index method and the TF empirical method can effectively identify the icing-prone pressure levels and time periods and forecast the distribution of icing accumulation intensity at high pressure levels for a given station. Full article

Emergency departments worldwide face challenges in managing fluctuating patient demand, which is often inadequately addressed by traditional forecasting methods due to the inherent nonlinearities of data. The purpose of this study is to propose a short-term prediction model for daily attendance in a private emergency healthcare unit in southern Brazil. The study employed seven years of historical data to compare the performance of ARIMA, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and the chaotic logistic map model to forecast next-day arrivals in two specialties, general clinic and pediatric. The errors for the general practitioner and the pediatricians of the ARIMA, ANN, and logistic map models were, respectively, [0.31%, 2.54%, 2.17%] and [32.72%, 10.11%, 7.85%], measured by MAPE (mean absolute percentage error). The logistic map ranked second and first place, respectively, providing acceptable results in both cases. The main innovation is the successful application of a chaotic model, specifically the logistic map, exclusively for one-day prediction variables in the management of health and medical services. In particular, for the pediatrician, a most irregular time series, the logistic map provided the better outcome. For professionals, the study offers an accurate tool for optimizing the allocation of human and material resources and supporting daily strategic decisions. For scholars, it opens research avenues, addressing a gap in the body of knowledge on chaotic models that have not yet been extensively explored in healthcare service demand one-day forecasting. Full article

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are critical contributors to economic growth, innovation, and employment. However, they often struggle in securing external financing. This financial gap mainly arises from perceived risks and information asymmetries creating barriers between SMEs and potential investors. To address this issue, our study proposes a machine learning (ML) framework for predicting the investment readiness (IR) of SMEs. All the models involved in this study are trained using data provided by the European Central Bank’s Survey on Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE). We train, evaluate, and compare the predictive performance of nine (9) machine learning algorithms and various ensemble methods. The results provide evidence on the ability of ML algorithms in identifying investment-ready SMEs in a heavily imbalanced and noisy dataset. In particular, the Gradient Boosting algorithm achieves a balanced accuracy of 75.4% and the highest ROC AUC score at 0.815. Employing a relevant cost function economically enhances these results. The approach can offer specific inference to policymakers seeking to design targeted interventions and can provide investors with data-driven methods for identifying promising SMEs. Full article

Owing to the high volatility, non-stationarity, and complexity of financial time-series data, stock market trend prediction remains a crucial but difficult endeavor. To address this, we present a novel Multi-Perspective Fused Attention model (SGR-Net) that amalgamates Random, Global, and Sparse Attention mechanisms to improve stock trend forecasting accuracy and generalization capability. The proposed Fused Attention model (SGR-Net) is trained on a rich feature space consisting of thirteen widely used technical indicators derived from raw stock index prices to effectively classify stock index trends as either uptrends or downtrends. Across nine global stock indices—DJUS, NYSE AMEX, BSE, DAX, NASDAQ, Nikkei, S&P 500, Shanghai Stock Exchange, and NIFTY 50—we evaluated the proposed model and compared it against baseline deep learning techniques, which include LSTM, GRU, Vanilla Attention, and Self-Attention. Experimental results across nine global stock index datasets show that the Fused Attention model produces the highest accuracy of 94.36% and AUC of 0.9888. Furthermore, even at lower epochs of training, i.e., 20 epochs, the proposed Fused Attention model produces faster convergence and better generalization, yielding an AUC of 0.9265, compared with 0.9179 for Self-Attention, on the DJUS index. The proposed model also demonstrates competitive training time and noteworthy performance on all nine stock indices. This is due to the incorporation of Sparse Attention, which lowers computation time to 57.62 s, only slightly more than the 54.22 s required for the Self-Attention model on the Nikkei 225 index. Additionally, the model incorporates Global Attention, which captures long-term dependencies in time-series data, and Random Attention, which addresses the problem of overfitting. Overall, this study presents a robust and reliable model that can help individuals, research communities, and investors identify profitable stocks across diverse global markets. Full article

The aim of this paper is the analysis and selection of stock trading systems that combine different models with data of a different nature, such as financial and microeconomic information. Specifically, based on previous work by the authors and with the application of advanced techniques of machine learning and deep learning, our objective is to formulate trading algorithms for the stock market with empirically tested statistical advantages, thus improving results published in the literature. Our approach integrates long short-term memory (LSTM) networks with algorithms based on decision trees, such as random forest and gradient boosting. While the former analyzes price patterns of financial assets, the latter is fed with economic data of companies. Numerical simulations of algorithmic trading with data from international companies and 10-weekday predictions confirm that an approach based on both fundamental and technical variables can outperform the usual approaches, which do not combine those two types of variables. In doing so, random forest turned out to be the best performer among the decision trees. We also discuss how the prediction performance of such a hybrid approach can be boosted by selecting the technical variables. Full article

Accurate and efficient cryptocurrency price prediction is vital for investors in the volatile crypto market. This study comprehensively evaluates nine models—including baseline, zero-shot, and deep learning architectures—on 21 major cryptocurrencies using daily and hourly data. Our multi-dimensional evaluation assesses models based on prediction accuracy (MAE, RMSE, MAPE), speed, statistical significance (Diebold–Mariano test), and economic value (Sharpe Ratio). Our research found that the optimally fine-tuned TimeGPT model (without variables) demonstrated superior performance across both Daily and Hourly datasets, with its statistical leadership confirmed by the Diebold–Mariano test. Fine-tuned Chronos excelled in daily predictions, while TFT was a close second to TimeGPT for hourly forecasts. Crucially, zero-shot models like TimeGPT and Chronos were tens of times faster than traditional deep learning models, offering high accuracy with superior computational efficiency. A key finding from our economic analysis is that a model’s effectiveness is highly dependent on market characteristics. For instance, TimeGPT with variables showed exceptional profitability in the volatile ETH market, whereas the zero-shot Chronos model was the top performer for the cyclical BTC market. This also highlights that variables have asset-specific effects with TimeGPT: improving predictions for ICP, LTC, OP, and DOT, but hindering UNI, ATOM, BCH, and ARB. Recognizing that prior research has overemphasized prediction accuracy, this study provides a more holistic and practical standard for model evaluation by integrating speed, statistical significance, and economic value. Our findings collectively underscore TimeGPT’s immense potential as a leading solution for cryptocurrency forecasting, offering a top-tier balance of accuracy and efficiency. This multi-dimensional approach provides critical, theoretical, and practical guidance for investment decisions and risk management, proving especially valuable in real-time trading scenarios. Full article

This study presents a gradient-informed proxy initialization framework designed to improve training efficiency and predictive performance in deep learning models for time-series forecasting. The method extends the Laor Initialization approach by introducing backward gradient norm clustering as a selection criterion for input-layer weights, evaluated through a lightweight, architecture-agnostic proxy model. Only the numerical input layer adopts the selected initialization, while internal components retain standard schemes such as Xavier, Kaiming, or Orthogonal, maintaining compatibility and reducing overhead. The framework is evaluated on a real-world financial forecasting task: identifying high-risk equities from the Thai Market Surveillance Measure List, a domain characterized by label imbalance, non-stationarity, and limited data volume. Experiments across five architectures, including Transformer, ConvTran, and MMAGRU-FCN, show that the proposed strategy improves convergence speed and classification accuracy, particularly in deeper and hybrid models. Results in recurrent-based models are competitive but less pronounced. These findings support the method’s practical utility and generalizability for forecasting tasks under real-world constraints. Full article

The dry-bulb temperature is a critical parameter in weather forecasting, agriculture, energy management, and climate research. This work proposes a new hybrid prediction model (FBSE-GA-LSTM) that integrates the Fourier–Bessel series expansion (FBSE), genetic algorithm (GA), and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks together to predict the dry-bulb air temperature. The hybrid model FBSE-GA-LSTM utilises the FBSE to decompose time series data of interest into an attempt to remove the noise level for capturing the dominant predictive patterns. Then, the FBSE is embedded into the GA method for the best feature selection and dimension reduction. To predict the dry-bulb temperature, a new model (FBSE-GA-LSTM) was used by hybridising a proposed model FBSE-GA with the LSTM model on the time series dataset of two different regions in Saudi Arabia. For comparison, the FBSE and GA models were hybridised with a bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) models to obtain the hybrid FBSE-GA-BiLSTM, FBSE-GA-GRU, and FBSE-GA-BiGRU models along with their standalone versions. In addition, benchmark models, including the climatic average and persistence approaches, were employed to demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms simple baseline predictors. The experimental results indicated that the proposed hybrid FBSE-GA-LSTM model achieved improved prediction performance compared with the contrastive models for the Jazan region, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.458 °C, a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.954, and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.780 °C, and for the Jeddah region, with an MAE of 1.459 °C, an R of 0.952, and an RMSE of 1.782 °C, between the predicted and observed values of dry-bulb air temperature. Full article

The accurate short-term forecasting (PV) of power is crucial for grid stability control, energy trading optimization, and renewable energy integration in smart grids. However, PV generation is extremely variable and non-linear due to environmental fluctuations, which challenge the conventional forecasting models. This study proposes a hybrid deep learning architecture, Wavelet Transform–Transformer–Temporal Convolutional Network–Efficient Channel Attention Network–Gated Recurrent Unit (WT–Transformer–TCN–ECANet–GRU), to capture the overall temporal complexity of PV data through integrating signal decomposition, global attention, local convolutional features, and temporal memory. The model begins by employing the Wavelet Transform (WT) to decompose the raw PV time series into multi-frequency components, thereby enhancing feature extraction and denoising. Long-term temporal dependencies are captured in a Transformer encoder, and a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) detects local features. Features are then adaptively recalibrated by an Efficient Channel Attention (ECANet) module and passed to a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for sequence modeling. Multiscale learning, attention-driven robust filtering, and efficient encoding of temporality are enabled with the modular pipeline. We validate the model on a real-world, high-resolution dataset of a Moroccan university building comprising 95,885 five-min PV generation records. The model yielded the lowest error metrics among benchmark architectures with an MAE of 209.36, RMSE of 616.53, and an R² of 0.96884, outperforming LSTM, GRU, CNN-LSTM, and other hybrid deep learning models. These results suggest improved predictive accuracy and potential applicability for real-time grid operation integration, supporting applications such as energy dispatching, reserve management, and short-term load balancing. Full article

This paper introduces Neighborhood-Constrained Decomposition-based Prediction (NCD-Pred), the first system to leverage Neighborhood-Constrained Variational Mode Decomposition (NCVMD) for multichannel forecasting by integrating time series decomposition and neural networks. NCD-Pred leverages NCVMD to decompose a multichannel signal into simpler, band-limited components—referred to as intrinsic mode functions or simply modes—by prioritizing the most informative channel (the main channel) over less informative ones (the auxiliary channels) and bringing their central frequencies into alignment up to a tunable extent. This frequency synchronization provides a framework for cooperative mode forecasting, where predictions of signal components are recombined to produce the original signal prediction. For mode-level forecasting, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are utilized. NCD-Pred’s performance is evaluated against similarly designed mode-level forecasting systems using a multichannel dataset with weak cross-correlation, representing power load on a large vessel. The results show that NCD-Pred outperforms benchmark methods, demonstrating its practical utility in real signal processing scenarios. Full article

The neural architecture search technique is used to automate the engineering of neural network models. Several studies have applied this approach, mainly in the fields of image processing and natural language processing. Its application generally requires very long computing times before converging on the optimal architecture. This study proposes a hybrid approach that combines transfer learning and dynamic search space adaptation (TL-DSS) to reduce the architecture search time. To validate this approach, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models were designed using different evolutionary algorithms, including artificial bee colony (ABC), genetic algorithm (GA), differential evolution (DE), and particle swarm optimization (PSO), which were developed to predict trends in global horizontal irradiation data. The performance measures of this approach include the performance of the proposed models, as evaluated via RMSE over a 24-h prediction window of the solar irradiance data trend on one hand, and CPU search time on the other. The results show that, in addition to reducing the search time by up to 89.09% depending on the search algorithm, the proposed approach enables the creation of models that are up to 99% more accurate than the non-enhanced approach. This study demonstrates that it is possible to reduce the search time of a neural architecture while ensuring that models achieve good performance. Full article

The growing demand for efficient energy management has become essential for achieving sustainable development across social, economic, and environmental sectors. Accurate energy demand forecasting plays a pivotal role in energy management. However, energy demand data present unique challenges due to their complex characteristics, such as multi-seasonality, hidden structures, long-range dependency, irregularities, volatilities, and nonlinear patterns, making energy demand forecasting challenging. We propose a hybrid dimension reduction deep learning algorithm, Temporal Variational Residual Network (TVRN), to address these challenges and enhance forecasting performance. This model integrates variational autoencoders (VAEs), Residual Neural Networks (ResNets), and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) networks. TVRN employs VAEs for dimensionality reduction and noise filtering, ResNets to capture local, mid-level, and global features while tackling gradient vanishing issues in deeper networks, and BiLSTM to leverage past and future contexts for dynamic and accurate predictions. The performance of the proposed model is evaluated using energy consumption data, showing a significant improvement over traditional deep learning and hybrid models. For hourly forecasting, TVRN reduces root mean square error and mean absolute error, ranging from 19% to 86% compared to other models. Similarly, for daily energy consumption forecasting, this method outperforms existing models with an improvement in root mean square error and mean absolute error ranging from 30% to 95%. The proposed model significantly enhances the accuracy of energy demand forecasting by effectively addressing the complexities of multi-seasonality, hidden structures, and nonlinearity. Full article

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) has been innovated with a series of models in the last two decades, ranging from traditional statistical approaches to RNN-based models. However, recent contributions from deep learning to time series problems have made huge progress with a series of Transformer-based models. Despite the breakthroughs by attention mechanisms applied to deep learning areas, many challenges remain to be solved with more sophisticated models. Existing Transformers known as attention-based models outperform classical models with abilities to capture temporal dependencies and better strategies for learning dependencies among variables as well as in the time domain in an efficient manner. Aiming to solve those issues, we propose a novel Transformer—SegmentedCrossformer (SCF), a Transformer-based model that considers both time and dependencies among variables in an efficient manner. The model is built upon the encoder–decoder architecture in different scales and compared with the previous state of the art. Experimental results on different datasets show the effectiveness of SCF with unique advantages and efficiency. Full article

This study adapts the United Nations’ methodology for national probabilistic population projections to subnational contexts. The Bayesian approach used by the UN addresses data collection complexities effectively. By applying hierarchical model assumptions, national projections can be extended to subnational levels. There is a significant demand for subnational projections with uncertainty measures, especially in South Korea, where low fertility rates have led to rapid population decline, impacting economic and social conditions. The Bayesian hierarchical model predicts South Korea’s population will peak in 2024 and then decline sharply, potentially reaching 30 million by 2100 or below 20 million in lower projections. Seoul’s population may reduce to one-third of its 2020 size by 2100. Persistently low fertility rates result in a high dependency ratio and accelerated aging, particularly in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do. Although old-age dependency ratios might improve slightly by 2100, economic challenges such as reduced purchasing power and socio-economic strain from an aging population and declining fertility remain significant. A probabilistic approach can enhance resource allocation strategies to support the aging population at both national and subnational levels. Full article

This paper focuses on electricity demand forecasting and its uncertainty representation using a hybrid machine learning (ML) model in the eastern control area of southeastern Mexico. In this case, different sources of uncertainty are integrated by applying the Bootstrap method, which adds the characteristics of stochastic noise, resulting in a hybrid probabilistic and ML model in the form of a time series. The proposed methodology addresses a function density probability, which is the generalized of extreme values obtained from the errors of the ML model; however, it is adaptable and independent and simulates the variability that may arise due to unforeseen events. Results indicate that for a five-day forecast using only demand data, the proposed model achieves a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 4.358%; however, incorporating temperature increases the MAPE to 5.123% due to growing uncertainty. In contrast, a day-ahead forecast, including temperature, improves accuracy, reducing MAPE to 1.644%. The stochastic noise component enhances probabilistic modeling, yielding a MAPE of 3.042% with and 2.073% without temperature in five-day forecasts. Therefore, the proposed model proves useful for regions with high demand variability, such as southeastern Mexico, while maintaining accuracy over longer time horizons. Full article

This study explores the application of spiking neural networks (SNNs) for click-through rate (CTR) prediction in personalized online advertising systems, introducing a novel hybrid model, the Temporal Rate Spike with Attention Neural Network (TRA–SNN). By leveraging the biological plausibility and energy efficiency of SNNs, combined with attention-based mechanisms, the TRA–SNN model captures temporal dynamics and rate-based patterns to achieve performance comparable to state-of-the-art Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based models, such as Deep & Cross Network v2 (DCN-V2) and FinalMLP. The models were trained and evaluated on the Avazu and Digix datasets, using standard metrics like AUC-ROC and accuracy. Through rigorous hyperparameter tuning and standardized preprocessing, this study ensures fair comparisons across models, highlighting SNNs’ potential for scalable, sustainable deployment in resource-constrained environments like mobile devices and large-scale ad platforms. This work is the first to apply SNNs to CTR prediction, setting a new benchmark for energy-efficient predictive modeling and opening avenues for future research in hybrid SNN–ANN architectures across domains like finance, healthcare, and autonomous systems. Full article

Youth unemployment remains a pressing issue in many emerging economies, where educational disparities and demographic pressures interact in complex ways. This study investigates the links between higher-education enrolment, demographic structure and youth unemployment in eight developing countries from 2009 to 2023. Panel cointegration techniques—Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS)—are applied to estimate the long-run effects of gross tertiary-school enrolment on youth unemployment while controlling for GDP growth and youth-cohort size. Robustness is confirmed through complementary estimations with pooled-mean-group ARDL and system-GMM panels, which deliver consistent coefficient signs and significance levels. Results show a significant negative elasticity between enrolment and youth unemployment, indicating that wider access to higher education helps lower joblessness among young people. Youth-population growth exerts an opposite, positive effect, while GDP growth reduces unemployment but less uniformly across regions. The evidence points to an integrated policy mix—expanding tertiary (especially vocational and technical) education, managing demographic pressure and maintaining macro-economic stability—to improve youth-employment outcomes in emerging economies. Full article

This systematic literature review explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in financial market forecasting, with a focus on four asset classes: equities, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and foreign exchange markets. Guided by the PRISMA methodology, the study identifies the most widely used predictive models, particularly LSTM, GRU, XGBoost, and hybrid deep learning architectures, as well as key evaluation metrics, such as RMSE and MAPE. The findings confirm that AI-based approaches, especially neural networks, outperform traditional statistical methods in capturing non-linear and high-dimensional dynamics. However, the analysis also reveals several critical research gaps. Most notably, current models are rarely embedded into real or simulated trading strategies, limiting their practical applicability. Furthermore, the sensitivity of widely used metrics like MAPE to volatility remains underexplored, particularly in highly unstable environments such as crypto markets. Temporal robustness is also a concern, as many studies fail to validate their models across different market regimes. While data covering one to ten years is most common, few studies assess performance stability over time. By highlighting these limitations, this review not only synthesizes the current state of the art but also outlines essential directions for future research. Specifically, it calls for greater emphasis on model interpretability, strategy-level evaluation, and volatility-aware validation frameworks, thereby contributing to the advancement of AI’s real-world utility in financial forecasting. Full article