Escaping from Air Pollution: Exploring the Psychological Mechanism behind the Emergence of Internal Migration Intention among Urban Residents
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Theoretical Foundation
- First, the association between AirSatisfaction and MigratIntention needs to be negative.
- Second, the association between AirSatisfaction and MigratIntention has to be intensified (or positively moderated) by the perceived availability of options with better air quality. Here, we determined to treat NearbyMigratOpt and FarawayMigratOpt variables as moderating variables to turn their effects into non-linear (moderation) to avoid multicollinearity and confounding problems among predictor variables. We intentionally exclude the linear terms of MigratIntention with NearbyMigratOpt and FarawayMigratOpt because the model without them fits that data better than the model adding them (see Supplementary S1 for detailed comparison). Furthermore, excluding those linear terms can make the estimated results more understandable.
- Third, to evaluate the effect of moving distance, we compare the moderation effects of NearbyMigratOpt and FarawayMigratOpt. If the moderation effect of FarawayMigratOpt is smaller than that of NearbyMigratOpt, our assumption that migration distance increases the perceived cost of migration, leading to lower migration likelihood, is valid. If their effects are equal or the effect of NearbyMigratOpt is smaller, our assumption will be invalid, as will our proposed psychological mechanism.
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Materials
3.2. Methods and Validation
4. Results
4.1. Model 1: Migration Cost–Benefit Judgment
4.2. Model 2: Incorporation of Socio-Demographic Factors
4.3. Model Comparison and Migration Probability Visualization
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Variable | Level | Samples (N = 475) | Proportion |
---|---|---|---|
MigratIntention | No = 0 | 430 | 90.53% |
Yes = 1 | 44 | 9.26% | |
AirSatisfaction | Very dissatisfied = 1 | 102 | 21.47% |
Dissatisfied = 2 | 237 | 49.89% | |
Neutral = 3 | 111 | 23.37% | |
Satisfied = 4 | 20 | 4.21% | |
Very satisfied = 5 | 2 | 0.42% | |
NearbyMigratOpt | No = 0 | 85 | 17.89% |
Yes = 1 | 390 | 82.11% | |
FarawayMigratOpt | No = 0 | 323 | 68.00% |
Yes = 1 | 152 | 32.00% | |
AgeGroup | From 10 to 18 = 1 | 8 | 1.68% |
From 19 to 30 = 2 | 142 | 29.89% | |
From 31 to 40 = 3 | 109 | 22.95% | |
From 41 to 50 = 4 | 63 | 13.26% | |
From 51 to 60 = 5 | 61 | 12.84% | |
Above 60 = 6 | 92 | 19.37% | |
Gender | Female = 0 | 215 | 45.26% |
Male = 1 | 259 | 54.53% | |
Education | Secondary school or below = 1 | 53 | 11.16% |
High school = 2 | 132 | 27.79% | |
Technical school, college degree, university degree = 3 | 265 | 55.79% | |
Master’s degree = 4 | 19 | 4.00% | |
Doctoral degree = 5 | 2 | 0.42% |
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Variable | Meaning | Type of Variable | Value |
---|---|---|---|
MigratIntention | Whether the respondent had the intention to immigrate to another province/city due to air pollution | Binary | Yes = 1 No = 0 |
AirSatisfaction | The respondent’s satisfaction level with the current air quality | Ordinal | From 1 (very dissatisfied) to 5 (very satisfied) |
NearbyMigratOpt | Whether the respondent knows a better nearby option to migrate. In other words, whether the respondent perceived that neighboring provinces/cities had better air quality | Binary | Yes = 1 No = 0 |
FarawayMigratOpt | Whether the respondent knows a better faraway option to migrate. In other words, whether the respondent perceived that Southern provinces/cities had better air quality | Binary | Yes = 1 No = 0 |
AgeGroup | The age group that the respondent belongs to | Ordinal | From 10 to 18 = 1 From 19 to 30 = 2 From 31 to 40 = 3 From 41 to 50 = 4 From 51 to 60 = 5 Above 60 = 6 |
Gender | Gender | Binary | Male = 1 Female = 0 |
Education | The highest achieved level of education of the respondent | Ordinal | Secondary school or below = 1 High school = 2 Technical school, college degree, university degree = 3 Master’s degree = 4 Doctoral degree = 5 |
Parameters | Priors Reflecting Belief on Effects | Priors Reflecting Disbelief On Effects | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | SD | n_eff | Rhat | Mean | SD | n_eff | Rhat | |
Constant | −1.41 | 0.42 | 7081 | 1 | −1.60 | 0.42 | 6532 | 1 |
AirSatisfaction | −0.86 | 0.27 | 5588 | 1 | −0.47 | 0.24 | 5623 | 1 |
AirSatisfaction × NearbyMigratOpt | 0.42 | 0.23 | 6662 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 6751 | 1 |
AirSatisfaction × FarawayMigratOpt | 0.15 | 0.16 | 8217 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 8623 | 1 |
Parameters | Priors Reflecting Belief on Effects | Priors Reflecting Disbelief on Effects | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | SD | n_eff | Rhat | Mean | SD | n_eff | Rhat | |
Constant | −0.11 | 1.06 | 4779 | 1 | −0.45 | 1.03 | 4588 | 1 |
AirSatisfaction | −0.89 | 0.27 | 6712 | 1 | −0.49 | 0.24 | 7273 | 1 |
AirSatisfaction × NearbyMigratOpt | 0.38 | 0.23 | 7151 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.20 | 8332 | 1 |
AirSatisfaction × FarawayMigratOpt | 0.09 | 0.17 | 10,652 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 12,045 | 1 |
AgeGroup | −0.34 | 0.13 | 6461 | 1 | −0.34 | 0.13 | 7147 | 1 |
Gender | 0.60 | 0.35 | 10,751 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.34 | 11,862 | 1 |
Education | −0.15 | 0.25 | 5810 | 1 | −0.09 | 0.25 | 5923 | 1 |
WAIC | Pseudo-BMA without Bayesian Bootstrap | Pseudo-BMA with Bayesian Bootstrap | Bayesian Stacking | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Model 1 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.31 | 0.33 |
Model 2 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
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Vuong, Q.-H.; Le, T.-T.; Khuc, Q.V.; Nguyen, Q.-L.; Nguyen, M.-H. Escaping from Air Pollution: Exploring the Psychological Mechanism behind the Emergence of Internal Migration Intention among Urban Residents. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 12233. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912233
Vuong Q-H, Le T-T, Khuc QV, Nguyen Q-L, Nguyen M-H. Escaping from Air Pollution: Exploring the Psychological Mechanism behind the Emergence of Internal Migration Intention among Urban Residents. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(19):12233. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912233
Chicago/Turabian StyleVuong, Quan-Hoang, Tam-Tri Le, Quy Van Khuc, Quang-Loc Nguyen, and Minh-Hoang Nguyen. 2022. "Escaping from Air Pollution: Exploring the Psychological Mechanism behind the Emergence of Internal Migration Intention among Urban Residents" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 19: 12233. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912233