Search Results (194)

Extreme heatwaves threaten public health and economies. Using multi-source data from 1964–2023 and the Excess Heat Factor (EHF), we identified heatwaves and, with a generalized linear mixed model and Hurst-based intensity forecasting, assessed drivers and future trends across Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) regions. (1) Duration, frequency, and the number of events increased by 18.7 days, 21.2 days, and 5.5 events, respectively. During the 2004–2023 period, HWD, HWF, and HWN accelerated, expanding from South Asia/Middle East to Central Asia, the Caucasus, and North Asia. In 1994–2023, centroids shifted west/south: frequency 2.54° W, 1.83° S; and intensity 1.17° W, 2.79° S. (2) Between 2000 and 2019, interaction effects exceeded single effects; dominant drivers shifted from SPEI and wind speed to shortwave radiation and NDVI. (3) Future intensification peaks in East Asia, the Iranian Plateau, and China’s east coast; with H ≥ 0.7, enhanced areas exceed 33% (max 37%), concentrated in Central and western West Asia. Full article

This paper examines source-conditioned spillovers and tail dependence in Belt and Road Initiative equity markets under China-related equity distress and WTI oil-price-decline distress. We define source-conditioned spillovers as incremental changes in pairwise dependence relative to a median-threshold benchmark, and source-conditioned tail dependence as the nonlinear higher-order component of these changes. Using a DCC-GARCH model with multivariate generalized hyperbolic innovations, we construct a linear co-moment layer and a nonlinear tail-dependence layer for 32 equity markets from 2007 to 2025. The resulting annual country-level exposure measures are then related to macroeconomic, China-linked, and oil-linked characteristics through benchmark fixed-effects and source-matched regressions. The empirical results imply that the linear layer mainly reflects background synchronization, whereas the nonlinear layer captures selective tail-state amplification. SSEC-conditioned exposure is more visible in China-adjacent and regionally linked equity relationships, while WTI-conditioned exposure is more visible among intermediary receiving markets and in nonlinear oil-related episodes. The comparison after 2013 suggests that BRI equity markets became more vulnerable to energy driven tail risk, as WTI distress is more strongly associated with nonlinear downside amplification. SSEC distress mainly increases the common linear exposure channel, indicating broader regional synchronization rather than a persistent rise in nonlinear contagion. The framework provides a financial-stability diagnostic for sustainable-finance resilience by distinguishing routine cross-market synchronization from nonlinear downside exposure relevant to cross-border financing, infrastructure investment, and energy-transition-related capital allocation. Full article

The countries in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) significantly influence global carbon emissions, and the spatial correlation and driving mechanisms of their emissions are crucial for regional emission reduction and global climate governance. This study constructs a carbon emission spatial correlation network, where links represent pairwise spatial correlations derived from a modified gravity model, using data from 54 BRI countries (2011–2020). It applies social network analysis (SNA) to examine the network structure and uses the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model (TERGM) to identify influencing factors. The main findings are as follows: (1) The BRI carbon emission network has become more interconnected and cohesive, with stronger regional connectivity and reduced inequality. (2) The network shows a core–periphery structure with notable spatial association patterns. Countries like Qatar, Israel, India, China, and the UAE have rapidly established carbon emission links, positioning them at the core due to their high connectivity and influence. (3) The network displays temporal dependence, with reciprocity associated with stronger mutual connections and transitivity associated with more cohesive network structures. Technological innovation and industrial structure optimization are positively associated with the formation of carbon emission connections, while energy structure and foreign investment are negatively associated with it. Economic development and technological innovation are associated with a country’s greater involvement in carbon emission connections, and countries with similar urbanization rates, energy, and industrial structures, but large economic disparities are more likely to form carbon emission associations, reflecting potential complementarities in the network structure. Full article

Frequent major emergencies threaten the security of the feed grain import supply chain. Enhancing import resilience is essential for supporting a new development pattern. However, research on a dedicated system to evaluate the resilience of China’s feed grain imports remains limited. In addition, strategies to strengthen resilience based on country-specific distances are still underexplored. This study constructs a comprehensive indicator system for China’s feed grain import resilience, using data from 2000 to 2023. It empirically examines the impact of country distance on this resilience across four dimensions: geographic distance, economic distance, institutional distance, and cultural distance. The findings indicate that country distance has an inhibitory effect on China’s feed grain import resilience. This conclusion holds true even after testing various adjustments, such as changes to core explanatory and dependent variables, modifications in sample sizes, alterations in measurement methods, and the introduction of instrumental variables. Further analysis reveals that country distance undermines feed grain import resilience by significantly reducing trade efficiency. However, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) help mitigate the negative impact of country distance on resilience. To strengthen China’s feed grain import resilience, it is crucial to enhance cultural and institutional trust, improve trade efficiency, and optimize import distribution. This study provides empirical evidence to support the safety of China’s feed grain imports and promote efficient, mutually beneficial trade in feed grains with partner countries. Full article

As China pursues its Dual Carbon Goals, understanding the environmental effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is of critical importance. Employing panel data from 282 prefecture-level cities in China over the period 2003–2023, this study adopts a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to systematically assess the impact of the BRI on carbon emission intensity (CEI). The empirical results show that the BRI significantly reduces CEI in Chinese cities along its corridors, a finding that proves robust across multiple robustness checks and after addressing potential endogeneity concerns. Mechanism analysis reveals that the BRI reduces CEI by promoting industrial structure optimization, lowering energy intensity, and alleviating market fragmentation. Moderating effect tests indicate that government intervention strengthens the CEI reduction effect of the BRI. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that the CEI reduction effect is more pronounced in central-western cities, key environmental protection cities, old industrial base cities, and non-logistics hub cities. Full article

Conventional infrastructure appraisal in Africa prioritizes short-term economic performance while insufficiently accounting for the environmental conditions that govern long-term sustainability, spatial equity, and development resilience. To address this gap, this study develops an explicitly SDG-oriented spatial–ecological framework to examine how environmental quality conditions the economic returns of large-scale infrastructure investments under corridor-based development. The primary objective is to quantify infrastructure–environment complementarity and identify ecological thresholds regulating spatial spillovers and investment effectiveness along Tanzania’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) corridors. High-resolution remote sensing and spatially explicit socioeconomic data for 2012–2023 are integrated within a spatial econometric design. A Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) incorporating the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is estimated to capture non-linear interaction effects, with economic activity proxied by Night-Time Light (NTL) intensity across 2680 corridor grid cells. The results identify a statistically robust ecological threshold at NDVI = −0.8σ, beyond which infrastructure investments shift from low to high economic effectiveness. A strong positive infrastructure–environment interaction (β = 6.44, p < 0.001) indicates that environmental quality functions as a productive modulating factor rather than a passive constraint. Spatial classification shows that 63% of corridor areas are investment-ready, while 15% require ecological restoration prior to effective infrastructure deployment. Although institutional quality and long-term post-construction dynamics are not explicitly modeled, the framework provides a replicable and policy-relevant decision-support tool, offering actionable guidance for aligning corridor development with SDGs 9, 11, and 13 and advancing sustainable infrastructure planning in the Global South. Full article

This study investigates critical research gaps in procurement management challenges faced by Chinese contractors in international engineering–procurement–construction (EPC) projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with a particular focus on sustainability-oriented outcomes. It examines the following: (1) prevalent procurement inefficiencies, such as communication delays and material shortages, encountered in international EPC projects; (2) the role of supply chain INTEGRATION in enhancing procurement performance; (3) the application of social network analysis (SNA) to reveal inter-organizational relationships in procurement systems; and (4) the influence of stakeholder collaboration on achieving efficient and sustainable procurement processes. The findings demonstrate that effective supply chain integration significantly improves procurement efficiency, reduces delays, and lowers costs, thereby contributing to more sustainable project delivery. Strong collaboration and transparent communication among key stakeholders—including contractors, suppliers, subcontractors, and designers—are shown to be essential for mitigating procurement risks and supporting resilient supply chain operations. SNA results highlight the critical roles of central stakeholders and their relational structures in optimizing resource allocation and enhancing risk management capabilities. Evidence from case studies further indicates that Chinese contractors increasingly adopt sustainability-oriented practices, such as just-in-time inventory management, strategic supplier relationship management, and digital procurement platforms, to reduce inefficiencies and environmental impacts. Overall, this study underscores that supply chain INTEGRATION, combined with robust stakeholder collaboration, is a key enabler of sustainable procurement and long-term competitiveness for Chinese contractors in the global EPC market. The purpose of this study is to identify critical procurement management challenges and propose evidence-based solutions for Chinese contractors. It further aims to develop a sustainability-oriented framework integrating supply chain integration and stakeholder collaboration to enhance competitiveness. Full article

As a core sector of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and dual-circulation pattern, Xinjiang’s cultural tourism industry—its ninth-largest industrial cluster—plays a key role in enhancing industrial competitiveness and regional coordinated development. To fill the research gap of insufficient analysis on China’s western frontier regions in existing tourism cluster studies, this research focuses on 14 prefecture-level cities in Xinjiang (2009–2023) and innovatively adopts a spatiotemporal synergy and dual-dimensional correlation framework, addressing the limitations of previous single-dimensional research. Tourism Location Quotient (TLQ) quantified specialized agglomeration, Local Moran’s I identified spatial correlation patterns, gravity models analyzed horizontal inter-cluster interactions, and Gray Relational Model (GRM) measured vertical driving relationships between cluster development and related dimensions. This approach facilitates an in-depth analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution trajectory of Xinjiang’s tourism clusters and their horizontal-vertical linkage mechanisms. Findings show: (1) Xinjiang’s tourism clusters present a spatial pattern of “Northern Xinjiang as the core, Eastern Xinjiang with differentiated development, and Southern Xinjiang as lagging.” With narrowing regional gaps, their evolution transitions from a “fixed gradient” to “co-evolution.” (2) Agglomeration effects are significant: Urumqi propels Northern Xinjiang to form a “high-high agglomeration zone,” while Southern Xinjiang remains a “low-low agglomeration zone” led by Kashgar. (3) Horizontal linkages evolve from a Urumqi-centered single-core structure to a multi-axis cluster network, and vertical linkages are mainly driven by destination attractiveness and economic support capacity. This study clarifies the spatiotemporal evolution logic and associated driving mechanisms of tourism clusters in arid, multi-ethnic frontier regions, providing a scientific basis for optimizing regional tourism layouts and promoting high-quality development. Full article

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, is one of the most ambitious global projects of the 21st century, aiming to enhance connectivity and trade between Asia and Europe. Within this framework, the New Eurasia Land Bridge Economic Corridor (NELBEC) stands out as a key transcontinental route where railway logistics plays a central role. However, few studies have systematically assessed the readiness of participating countries to integrate effectively into this corridor. This study aims to develop and apply a composite index to evaluate and compare the logistics and railway readiness of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Poland within the NELBEC. The methodology integrates the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index (LPI) with railway-specific indicators derived from academic literature and institutional datasets. All indicators were normalized, weighted through expert consultation, and aggregated into two dimensions: logistics readiness and railway readiness. The results show that Russia exhibits the highest overall readiness, driven by strong railway capacity but weaker logistics performance, followed by Poland, with advanced infrastructure and efficient customs procedures. Kazakhstan and Belarus present lower readiness levels due to limited terminal capacity and outdated infrastructure. The findings offer policymakers and regional planners a tool to help them make decisions, identify infrastructure bottlenecks, prioritize investments, and design policies that will lead to a more sustainable integration into the BRI. Full article

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has reshaped global trade and infrastructure, with port cities as key nodes in its Maritime Silk Road. Quantifying their spatiotemporal development is challenging due to data limitations in emerging economies. This study employs VIIRS nighttime light (NTL) data from 2013 to 2023 to analyze urbanization patterns in twelve BRI port cities spanning Asia, Africa, Europe, and South America. We compile a 12-city cohort; inferential analyses are conducted for a pre-specified six-city subset, while descriptive NTL trends cover all 12. This study makes three contributions: (i) we assemble a cross-sensor harmonized VIIRS NTL record for 12 BRI port cities during 2013–2023; (ii) we integrate Standard Deviational Ellipse(SDE) parameters with rank-size dynamics as a joint diagnostic of urban hierarchy; and (iii) we triangulate NTL with external indicators (GDP, population, port throughput) to validate interpretation. Three key findings emerge: Asian ports experienced pronounced NTL growth, with Singapore approaching saturation, consistent with the luminosity-ceiling hypothesis; SDE analysis shows varied expansion patterns shaped by geophysical and policy factors; and rank-size trends indicate decentralization during the BRI decade, with |q| declining in most cities, challenging the primate-city model. To optimize development, we highlight polycentric infrastructure investment, institutionalized NTL monitoring, and green port certification aligned with sustainability goals. Full article

Against the backdrop of safety becoming a key objective in the restructuring of industrial chains, the impact of China’s outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) on industrial chain risks warrants further exploration. Based on the Asian Development Bank’s Multi-Regional Input-Output Data (ADB-MRIOD) from 2007 to 2023, this study measures the external risk exposure of industrial chains from both supply-side and demand-side perspectives across 41 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economies. Utilizing a two-way fixed effects panel model with lagged variables and instrumental techniques to mitigate endogeneity, we empirically investigate the mechanisms through which China’s OFDI influences the external risk exposure of industrial chains. The findings reveal that (1) China’s OFDI significantly reduces such risk exposure, and (2) effect heterogeneity observed across country groups and sectors—showing stronger mitigation in high-innovation and developing countries, as well as in capital-intensive industries. (3) Mechanism analysis identifies three transmission channels: enhancing the host country’s trade network status, rationalizing its industrial structure, and strengthening Sino-host country industrial linkages. The study provides empirical support for formulating targeted investment policies to enhance supply chain resilience under the BRI framework. Full article

Launched in 2013, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was originally devised to link East Asia and Europe through a network of physical and digital infrastructure. This article analyses the BRI’s development in the European context by offering a comparative analysis of 727 BRI and BRI-like projects within 46 European countries from 2005 to 2021. The analysis considers projects’ location, typology, status, and the main enterprises involved in each project. According to our results, there is a “two-speed Europe”. Indeed, while the vast majority of projects are included in the Digital Silk Road (e.g., telecommunication, transfer technology, data centre, 5G, fintech) and are located in North-Western Europe, traditional investments in infrastructure (e.g., ports, roads, railways, SEZ) are concentrated in South-Eastern Europe and the Balkan countries. While North-Western Europe is particularly concerned about cyber security and data protection issues, various South-Eastern European countries look favorably upon the development opportunities offered by the BRI. The BRI is clearly different from the Western approach to development (based on competition and economic liberalism) and integration (based on treaties). The BRI approach—including its platform, leveraging political flexibility, economic pragmatism, ability to mobilize resources, and ability to create synergies between state and business—could take advantage of the flaws of the European integration process. The BRI, with its strengths as well as weaknesses, represents an opportunity for the EU to understand the need for greater economic and political foresight, social cohesion, and economic flexibility to meet the development needs of its member countries. China, too, can draw inspiration from cooperating with EU countries on how to improve the reception of its investment initiatives by focusing on reciprocity, security guarantees, and protection of rights and the environment. Full article

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represents one of the world’s most ambitious transnational infrastructure and investment programs, but its implementation faces considerable external risks. Specifically, these risks include geopolitical instability, regulatory disparities, socio-cultural conflicts, and economic volatility, which threaten project continuity, economic viability, and sustainability of the BRI framework. Consequently, effective risk recognition and prediction has become crucial for mitigating disruptions and supporting evidence-based policy formulation. What should be noticed is that existing risk management frameworks lack specialized, dynamically adaptive indicator systems capable of forecasting external risks specific to international engineering projects under the BRI. They tend to rely on static and traditional methods, which are ill-equipped to handle the dynamic and nonlinear nature of these transnational challenges. To address this gap, we have developed a machine learning-based early warning system. Drawing on a comprehensive dataset of 31 risk indicators across 155 BRI countries from 2013 to 2022, we constructed a stacked ensemble model optimized via Grid Search. The resulting ensemble model demonstrated exceptional predictive performance, achieving an R² value of 0.966 and outperforming all baseline methods significantly. By introducing a data-driven early-warning framework, our study contributes to more resilient infrastructure planning and improved risk governance mechanisms in the context of transnational cooperation initiatives. Full article

The advancement of green energy is a crucial mechanism for balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability, helping to mitigate conflicts between development and ecological preservation. This paper assesses the policy effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on China’s overseas green energy projects (including gas) using the difference-in-difference (DID) model from 2009 to 2022. The findings show that, overall, the BRI has notably augmented China’s green energy projects in the BRI countries. This result remains robust after excluding potential interference from Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Specifically, its promotional effect shows heterogeneity. Firstly, the BRI has shown significant regional differences in promoting the development of China’s overseas green energy projects. Secondly, the BRI is more effective in promoting green energy projects in developing and low-risk countries compared to developed and high-risk countries. Additionally, it indicates that the BRI boosts green energy projects in BRI countries by enhancing their infrastructure quality, encompassing transportation, energy, communication, and financial infrastructure. Finally, based on the above findings, this paper provides context-specific recommendations aimed at enhancing the effectiveness of the BRI in promoting sustainable green energy cooperation. Full article

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) promotes significant cross-border investment, raising critical questions about its environmental consequences, particularly regarding carbon emissions. This paper uses panel data from 47 countries that participated in the “Belt and Road Initiative” earlier from 2000 to 2020 to conduct theoretical analysis and empirical research on the relationship between the coordinated development of two-way FDI and carbon emission intensity, dividing it into scale effect, technology effect and structure effect. The coordinated development of two-way FDI can have an increasing or decreasing impact on carbon emission intensity through these three effects. The main findings of this paper are as follows: (1) The improvement of the degree of coordinated development of two-way FDI significantly reduces carbon emission intensity. (2) The improvement of the degree of coordinated development of two-way FDI can enhance the level of technological innovation, while the improvement of the level of technological innovation will increase carbon emission intensity, thereby reducing the carbon emission reduction effect of the coordinated development of two-way FDI. (3) The improvement of the degree of coordinated development of two-way FDI can reduce carbon emission intensity by promoting the upgrading of industrial structure. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the following suggestions for the subsequent development of countries along the “Belt and Road”: (1) Further increase two-way FDI and promote the coordinated development of two-way FDI. (2) Promote the upgrading of industrial structure and the green transformation of technology. (3) Increase economic freedom to provide a good environment for economic development. Full article