Search Results (1,268)

Heavy rainfall events in the southern Anhui region are the main meteorological disasters, often leading to floods and secondary disasters. This article explores the mechanisms supporting extreme precipitation by studying the spatiotemporal characteristics of heavy rainfall events during 2022–2024 and their related atmospheric circulation patterns. Using high-resolution precipitation data, ERA5 and GDAS reanalysis datasets, and the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model analysis, the main sources and transport pathways of water that cause heavy rainfall in the region were determined. The results indicate that large-scale circulation systems, including the East Asian monsoon (EAM), the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the South Asian high (SAH), and the Tibetan Plateau monsoon (PM), play a decisive role in regulating water vapor flux and convergence in southern Anhui. Southeast Asia, the South China Sea, the western Pacific, and inland China are the main sources of water vapor, with multi-level and multi-channel transport. The uplift effect of mountainous terrain further enhances local precipitation. The Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and zonal index are also closely related to the spatiotemporal changes in rainfall and disaster occurrence. The rainstorm disaster risk assessment based on principal component analysis, the information entropy weight method, and multiple regression shows that the power index model fitted by multiple linear regression is the best for the assessment of disaster-causing rainstorm events. The research results provide a scientific basis for enhancing early warning and disaster prevention capabilities in the context of climate change. Full article

Deep learning models for atmospheric pattern recognition require spatially consistent training labels that align precisely with input meteorological fields. This study introduces an automatic cold front detection method using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) at 850 hPa, specifically designed to generate physically consistent labels for machine learning applications. The approach combines the Thermal Front Parameter (TFP) with temperature advection (AdvT), applying optimized thresholds (TFP < 5 × 10⁻¹¹ K m⁻²; AdvT < −1 × 10⁻⁴ K s⁻¹), morphological filtering, and polynomial smoothing. Comparison against 1426 manual charts from 2009 revealed systematic spatial displacement, with mean offsets of ~502 km. Although pixel-level overlap was low, with Intersection over Union (IoU) = 0.013 and Dice coefficient (Dice) = 0.034, spatial concordance exceeded 99%, confirming both methods identify the same synoptic systems. The automatic method detects 58% more fronts over the South Atlantic and 44% fewer over the Andes compared to manual charts. Seasonal variability shows maximum activity in austral winter (31.3%) and minimum in summer (20.1%). This is the first automatic front detection system calibrated for South America that maintains direct correspondence between training labels and reanalysis input fields, addressing the spatial misalignment problem that limits deep learning applications in atmospheric sciences. Full article

The concentration characteristics of SO₂, NO₂, O₃, and CO in the marine atmosphere are of great significance for understanding air–sea interactions and regional atmospheric chemical processes. However, due to the challenging conditions of marine monitoring, long-term continuous observational data remain scarce. To address this gap, this study proposes a Transfer Learning–Convolutional Neural Network (TL-CNN) model that integrates ERA5 meteorological data, EAC4 atmospheric composition reanalysis data, and ground-based observations through multi-source data fusion. During data preprocessing, the Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Function (DINEOF), inverse distance weighting (IDW) spatial interpolation, and Gaussian filtering methods were employed to improve data continuity and consistency. Using ERA5 meteorological variables as inputs and EAC4 pollutant concentrations as training targets, a CNN-based inversion framework was constructed. Results show that the CNN model achieved an average coefficient of determination (R²) exceeding 0.80 on the pretraining test set, significantly outperforming random forest and deep neural networks, particularly in reproducing nearshore gradients and regional spatial distributions. After incorporating transfer learning and fine-tuning with station observations, the model inversion results reached an average R² of 0.72 against site measurements, effectively correcting systematic biases in the reanalysis data. Among the pollutants, the inversion of SO₂ performed relatively poorly, mainly because emission reduction trends from anthropogenic sources were not sufficiently represented in the reanalysis dataset. Overall, the TL-CNN model provides more accurate pollutant concentration fields for offshore regions with limited observations, offering strong support for marine atmospheric environment studies and assessments of marine ecological effects. It also demonstrates the potential of combining deep learning and transfer learning in atmospheric chemistry research. Full article

This paper presents the development of a high-resolution composite index to monitor and quantify climate-related risks across Italy. The country’s complex climatic variability, extensive coastline, and low insurance penetration highlight the urgent need for robust, locally calibrated tools to bridge the climate protection gap. Building on the methodological framework of existing actuarial climate indices, previously adapted for France and the Iberian Peninsula, the index integrates six standardised indicators capturing warm and cool temperature extremes, heavy precipitation intensity, dry spell duration, high wind frequency, and sea level change. It leverages hourly ERA5-Land reanalysis data and monthly sea level observations from tide gauges. Results show a clear upward trend in climate anomalies, with regional and seasonal differentiation. Among all components, sea level is most strongly correlated with the composite index, underscoring Italy’s vulnerability to marine-related risks. Comparative analysis with European indices confirms both the robustness and specificity of the Italian exposure profile, reinforcing the need for tailored risk metrics. The index can support innovative risk transfer mechanisms, including climate-related insurance, regulatory stress testing, and resilience planning. Combining scientific rigour with operational relevance, it offers a consistent, transparent, and policy-relevant tool for managing climate risk in Italy and contributing to harmonised European frameworks. Full article

The Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB), which contributes about 60% to the annual Nile flow, plays a critical role in the Nile water management. However, its complex terrain and climate create significant challenges for accurate regional climate simulations, which are essential for climate impact assessments. This study aims to address the challenges of climate simulation over the UBNB by enhancing the Regional Climate Model system (RegCM5) with its new non-hydrostatic dynamical core (MOLOCH) to simulate precipitation and temperature. The model is driven by ERA5 reanalysis for the period (2000–2009), and two scenarios are simulated using two different schemes of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL): Holtslag (Hol) and University of Washington (UW). The two scenarios, noted as (MOLOCH-Hol and MOLOCH-UW), are compared to the previously best-performing hydrostatic configuration. The MOLOCH-UW scenario showed the best precipitation performance relative to observations, with an accepted dry Bias% up to 22%, and a high annual cycle correlation >0.85. However, MOLOCH-Hol showed a very good performance only in the wet season with a wet bias of 4% and moderate correlation of ≈0.6. For temperature, MOLOCH-UW also outperformed, achieving the lowest cold/warm bias range of −2% to +3%, and high correlations of ≈0.9 through the year and the wet season. This study concluded that the MOLOCH-UW is the most reliable configuration for reproducing the climate variability over the UBNB. This developed configuration is a promising tool for the basin’s hydroclimate applications, such as dynamical downscaling of the seasonal forecasts and future climate change scenarios produced by global circulation models. Future improvements could be achieved through convective-permitting simulation at ≤4 km resolution, especially in the application of assessing the land use change impact. Full article

The precision of ERA5 reanalysis datasets and their applicability in the mountainous regions of central China are essential for weather forecasting and climate change research in the transitional zone between northern and southern China. This study employs three months of continuous measurements collected from a high-precision remote sensing platform located in a representative mountainous valley (Xinyang city) in central China, spanning December 2024 to February 2025. Our findings indicate that both horizontal and vertical wind speeds from the ERA5 dataset exhibit diminishing deviations as altitude increases. Significant biases are observed below 500 m, with horizontal mean wind speed deviations ranging from −4 to −3 m/s and vertical mean wind speed deviations falling between 0.1 and 0.2 m/s. Conversely, minimal biases are noted near the top of the boundary layer. Both ERA5 and observations reveal a dominance of northeasterly and southwesterly winds at near-surface levels, which aligns with the valley orientation. This underscores the substantial impact of heterogeneous mountainous terrain on the low-level dynamic field. At an altitude of 1000 m, both datasets present similar frequency patterns, with peak frequencies of approximately 15%; however, notable discrepancies in peak wind directions are evident (north–northeast for observations and north–northwest for ERA5). In contrast to dynamic variables, ERA5 temperature deviations are centered around 0 K within the lower layers (0–500 m) but show a slight increase, varying from around 0 K to 6.8 K, indicating an upward trend in deviation with altitude. Similarly, relative humidity (RH) demonstrates an increasing bias with altitude, although its representation of moisture variability remains insufficient. During a typical cold event, substantial deviations in multiple ERA5 variables highlight the needs for further improvements. The integration of machine learning techniques and mathematical correction algorithms is strongly recommended as a means to enhance the accuracy of ERA5 data under such extreme conditions. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the use of ERA5 datasets in the mountainous areas of central China and offer reliable scientific references for weather forecasting and climate modelings in these areas. Full article

The accuracy of numerical model outputs strongly depends on the quality of the initial wind field, yet ground observation data are typically sparse and provide incomplete spatial coverage. More importantly, many current mainstream correction models rely on reanalysis grid datasets like ERA5 as the true value, which relies on interpolation calculation, which directly affects the accuracy of the correction results. To address these issues, we propose a new deep learning model, PPWNet. The model directly uses sparse and discretely distributed observation data as the true value, which integrates observation point positions and a physical consistency term to achieve a high-precision corrected wind field. The model design is inspired by biological intelligence. First, observation point positions are encoded as input and observation values are included in the loss function. Second, a parallel dual-branch DenseInception network is employed to extract multi-scale grid features, simulating the hierarchical processing of the biological visual system. Meanwhile, PPWNet references the PointNet architecture and introduces an attention mechanism to efficiently extract features from sparse and irregular observation positions. This mechanism reflects the selective focus of cognitive functions. Furthermore, this paper incorporates physical knowledge into the model optimization process by adding a learned physical consistency term to the loss function, ensuring that the corrected results not only approximate the observations but also adhere to physical laws. Finally, hyperparameters are automatically tuned using the Bayesian TPE algorithm. Experiments demonstrate that PPWNet outperforms both traditional and existing deep learning methods. It reduces the MAE by 38.65% and the RMSE by 28.93%. The corrected wind field shows better agreement with observations in both wind speed and direction, confirming the effectiveness of incorporating position information and a physics-informed approach into deep learning-based wind field correction. Full article

This research evaluates three wind data sources, the Sentinel-1 wind product, the global reanalysis ERA5, and the regional reanalysis CARRA, across Iceland’s North, South, West, and East coastal regions. The analysis mainly focuses on validating Sentinel-1 high-resolution capabilities for capturing fine-scale wind patterns in coastal zones, where traditional reanalyses may have tangible limitations. Performance is evaluated through intercomparison of datasets and analysis of regional wind speed variability, with in situ coastal meteorological observations providing ground-truth validation. The results highlight the relative strengths and limitations of each source, offering guidance for improving wind-driven and wind-dependent applications in Iceland’s coastal regions, such as hazard assessment, marine operations, and renewable energy planning. Full article

Anthropogenic alterations of the land surface through activities such as agriculture, forestry and urban development represent important human-induced forcings on the Earth’s climate system. This study, conducted in the framework of the UpClim project, employs the non-hydrostatic WRF-ARW v4.5.1 model forced by ERA5 reanalysis data to assess the impact of land use changes (LUCs) on the European climate. The study aims to quantify the effects of LUCs over the EURO-CORDEX domain at 0.11° resolution during 1980–1985 by comparing simulations with transient land use forcing against a control run with static land use. Full article

Aerosols from natural and anthropogenic sources exert significant yet highly variable influences on the Earth’s radiative balance characterized by pronounced spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Accurate quantification of these effects is crucial for enhancing climate projections and informing effective mitigation strategies. In this study, we evaluated the performance of three widely used aerosol optical depth (AOD) datasets—MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2), MODIS Aqua, and MODIS Terra—by comparing them against ground-based AERONET observations from ten stations located within the dust belt region. Statistical assessments included coefficient of determination (R²), correlation coefficient (R), Index of Agreement (IOA), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Relative Mean Bias (RMB), and standard deviation (SD). The results indicate that MERRA-2 showed the highest agreement (R = 0.76), followed by MODIS Aqua (R = 0.75) and MODIS Terra (R = 0.73). Seasonal and annual AOD climatology maps revealed comparable spatial patterns across datasets, although MODIS Terra consistently reported slightly higher AOD values. These findings provide a robust assessment and reanalysis of satellite AOD products over arid regions, offering critical guidance for aerosol modeling, data assimilation, and climate impact studies. Full article

The climatic variability of near-surface air temperature (NSAT) over the Caspian region (35–60° N; 40–65° E) was analyzed in this study. The analysis was based on a comparison of data from various sources: weather stations, NOAA OISSTv2 satellite-based data, atmospheric reanalyses ECMWF ERA5, NASA MERRA-2, and NCEP/NCAR, and the outputs from 33 Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). CMIP6 models results from the historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) experiments were utilized. Over the period 1940–2023, NSAT exhibited variable changes across the Caspian region. Weather stations in the northwestern part of the region indicated NSAT increases of 0.9 ± 0.2 °C for 1985–2023. In the central-western part of the Caspian region, the increase in average NSAT between 1940–1969 and 1994–2023 was 1.4 °C with a spatial standard deviation of 0.3 °C. In the southern part of the Caspian region, the increase in average NSAT between 1986–2004 and 2005–2023 was 0.8 ± 0.1 °C. Importantly, all 33 CMIP6 models, as well as the ERA5 reanalysis, captured an average NSAT increase of approximately 1.3 ± 0.5 °C for the whole Caspian region between 1940–1969 and 1994–2023. From the ERA5 data, the increase in NSAT was more pronounced in the north (~1.6 °C) than in the central Caspian region, with the most significant warming observed in the mountainous regions of Iran (up to 3.0 °C). Under various CMIP6 SSPs scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), projections indicate an increase in average NSAT across the study region. Comparing the periods 1994–2023 and 2070–2099, the projected NSAT increases are 1.7 ± 0.7 °C, 2.8 ± 0.8 °C, 4.0 ± 0.9 °C, and 5.2 ± 1.2 °C, respectively. For the earlier period of 2024–2053 relative to 1994–2023, the projected NSAT increases are 1.2 ± 0.4 °C, 1.3 ± 0.4 °C, 1.4 ± 0.4 °C, and 1.7 ± 0.5 °C. Notably, the projected increase in NSAT is slower over the Caspian Sea compared to the surrounding land areas. Full article

An accurate estimation of wind energy productivity is crucial for the success of energy transition strategies in developing countries such as Pakistan, for which the deployment of renewables is essential. This study investigates the use of machine learning and deep learning techniques to improve wind farm producibility assessments, tailored to the Pakistani context. SCADA data from a wind turbine in Türkiye were used to train and validate five predictive models. Among these, Random Forest proved most reliable, attaining a coefficient of determination of 0.97 on the testing dataset. The trained model was then employed to simulate the annual production of a 5 × 5 wind farm at two representative sites in Pakistan—one onshore and one offshore—that had been selected using ERA5 reanalysis data. In comparison with conventional estimates based on the theoretical power curve, the machine learning-based approach resulted in net energy predictions up to 20% lower. This is attributable to real-world effects such as wake and grid losses. The onshore site yielded an LCOE of 0.059 USD/kWh, closely aligning with the IRENA’s 2024 national average of approximately 0.06 USD/kWh, thereby confirming the reliability of the estimates. In contrast, the offshore site exhibited an LCOE of 0.120 USD/kWh, thus underscoring the need for incentives to support offshore development in Pakistan’s renewable energy strategy. Full article

Xinjiang is a critical wind energy region in China. This study characterizes extreme wind speed (EWS) events in Xinjiang by using ERA5 reanalysis (1979–2023) and station observations (2022–2023). Through k-means clustering and wind power density classification, four distinct regions and representative nodes were identified, aligned with the “Three Mountains and Two Basins” topography: Region #1 (eastern wind-rich corridor), Region #2 (Tarim Basin, west–east increasing wind power density), Region #3 (northern valleys), and Region #4 (mountainous areas with weakest wind power density). Peaks-over-threshold analysis revealed 10~30-year return levels varying regionally, with 10-year return level for Node #1 reaching Beaufort Scale 11 but only Scale 6 for Node #4. Since 2001, EWS occurrences increased, with Nodes #2–4 showing doubled 10-year event occurrences in 2012–2023. Events exhibit consistent afternoon peaks and spring dominance (except Node #2 with summer maxima). Such long-term trends and diurnal and seasonal preferences of EWS could be partly explained by diverging synoptic drivers: orographic effects and enhanced pressure gradients (Node #1 and #3) associated with Ural blocking and polar vortex shifts, both showing intensification trends; thermal lows in the Tarim Basin (Node #2) accounting for their summer prevalence; boundary-layer instability that leads to localized wind intensification (Node #4). The results suggest the necessity of region-specific forecasting strategies for wind energy resilience. Full article

This study investigates the future temperature changes in the climate-vulnerable region of the Eastern Mediterranean. The results from seventeen (17) CMIP6 (6th Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) model simulations are analyzed. The analysis is focused on the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The ERA5 reanalysis is used as a reference dataset to investigate the performance of CMIP6 simulations to accurately reproduce the mean temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean region. The results show that CMIP6 model simulations vary regarding their efficiency for capturing the mean temperature. Future projections show that significant warming is shown during the last period of the 21st century. The continental Balkan and Turkish regions are recognized as the most affected areas regarding future warming. The increase in temperature spatially ranges (in local scale) from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C for the SSP2-4.5 scenario and from 3.0 °C to 8.0 °C for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Finally, the seasonal analysis indicates that summer (JJA) shows the maximum temperature increase compared with the other seasons. Full article

In this study, an aircraft icing diagnosis and forecasting method is constructed and hindcast for 25 collected spring icing cases over Eastern China based on two commonly used aircraft icing diagnostic methods (hereinafter referred to as the IC index method and the TF empirical method, respectively) and ERA5 reanalysis data as the atmospheric environmental field for icing occurrence. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of aircraft icing accumulation occurrence over typical cities at different latitudes in China are calculated separately, and the spatial and temporal distribution of icing accumulation areas over Xinchang, Zhejiang Province in China during one case of cold air activity is simulated. Accordingly, several application scenarios for the application of methods to forecast aircraft icing accumulation are proposed. The results indicate that among the selected icing cases, the diagnosis accuracy of the IC index method and the TF empirical method is 80% and 92%, respectively. The TF empirical method takes into account the effects of aircraft flight speed and dynamic warming, and shows better correlation with ice water particle concentration and cloud cover in medium and low clouds. However, the predicted icing accumulation intensity predicted by the TF empirical method is not accurate enough without the real flight speed of the aircraft, and there are more empty forecasts above 400 hPa. In practical applications, both the IC index method and the TF empirical method can effectively identify the icing-prone pressure levels and time periods and forecast the distribution of icing accumulation intensity at high pressure levels for a given station. Full article