Search Results (140)

Accurate forecasting of carbon credit prices is increasingly vital for the effective functioning of forest carbon markets, which play a growing role in global climate mitigation strategies. Against this backdrop, the present study conducts a systematic literature review to evaluate the state of carbon price forecasting methodologies, with particular emphasis on their applicability to forest-based carbon credits. The review highlights the predominance of machine learning (ML) and hybrid modeling approaches, which demonstrate enhanced predictive capabilities relative to conventional econometric techniques, particularly in capturing nonlinear dynamics and integrating heterogeneous data sources. However, their predictive power is limited by data scarcity, market opacity, and regulatory volatility. These issues are particularly severe in voluntary forest credit markets. The review identifies a critical research gap. Few studies explicitly model the behavior of forest credit prices. The findings suggest that future research should prioritize the development of policy-sensitive, scenario-based models that incorporate ecological, economic, and regulatory dimensions. While the majority of studies concentrate on compliance carbon markets, the methodological insights and forecasting approaches reviewed are highly relevant for the evolving forest carbon sector, nature-based mitigation strategies, and climate solutions. It also offers guidance for creating more transparent and robust forecasting tools in the forest carbon sector. Full article

In the present paper, a quantitative assessment of the effect of alternative fuel (LNG, LPG-B, LPG-P and MeOH) implementation in internal combustion engines in bulk carrier vessels on environmental compliance is presented. A fleet comprising 40 vessels across the Handymax, Panamax and Supramax classes is examined. By using LNG, the total fleet achieves environmental compliance up to 2030, with 52.5% of the fleet potentially achieving a minor superior energy ranking, while the EU ETS costs can be reduced by up to 24% compared to the case of burning conventional fuels. LPG-B and LPG-P demonstrated moderate improvements in the compliance period, with 50% to 87.5% and 52.5% to 97.5% surviving up to 2030, respectively. Reductions in the EU ETS costs were similar for these two fuels, with the reductions ranging from 3.3% to 12.1% for LPG-B and from 4.1% to 15.2% for LPG-P. Among all fuels, methanol showed the least improvement in extending the compliance period, with 52.5% to 67.5% of the fleet reaching 2030 with inferior to moderate CII ranks. The EU ETS cost reductions were low, ranging from 2.7% to 10%, with substantial fuel cost increases from 29.9% to 107%. The present study aims to assist ship owners/operators by providing a decision-support tool for bulk carrier alternative fuel pathways. Finally, it provides insights into the marine industry and shipping market regarding the future of the bulk carrier fleet in the context of decarbonization. Full article

This study assesses decarbonization progress in the European Union manufacturing sector between 2015 and 2023, using harmonized Eurostat indicators. The dataset covers emission intensity, energy intensity, renewable energy use, and structural markers of value added. After standardization, variables are reduced through principal component analysis (PCA). The resulting scores are then clustered with k-means, with the number of clusters chosen using elbow and silhouette diagnostics and validated through hierarchical clustering, representing a methodological innovation over existing typological studies. The results highlight persistent heterogeneities across member states. A group of frontrunners combines low intensities with a high share of RES; efficiency-centric groups advance mainly through energy intensity reductions but lag in fuel-switching, while structurally constrained groups remain hindered by energy mix limitations and outdated capital stocks. Dynamically, moderate convergence is observed along the main transition dimension, but persistent divergence remains in structural composition. These patterns justify differentiated policy approaches: accelerating fuel substitution where efficiency gains have already been achieved and integrated packages of modernization and infrastructure in structurally constrained economies. The novelty of this study lies in providing a harmonized, EU-wide, and reproducible typology of industrial decarbonization trajectories, enabling systematic cross-country comparison. Policy relevance is reinforced by linking the typology to current EU instruments such as the Emissions Trading System (ETS), the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the Innovation Fund, and the Net-Zero Industry Act. The integration of PCA with clustering provides an evidence-based that is valuable for prioritizing European industrial policies in line with the Green Deal. Full article

Background: Port congestion contributes significantly to operational inefficiency and environmental impact in maritime logistics. With tightening EU regulations such as the Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and FuelEU Maritime, understanding and mitigating the economic and environmental effects of vessel delays is increasingly critical. This study focuses on a single bulk cargo pier at Constanta Port (Romania), which has experienced substantial traffic fluctuations since 2021, and examines operational and environmental performance through a queuing-theoretic lens. Methods: The authors have applied an M/G/1/∞/FIFO/∞ queuing model to vessel traffic and service time data from 2021–2023, supplemented by Monte Carlo simulations to capture variability in maneuvering and service durations. Environmental impact was quantified in CO₂ emissions using standard fuel-based emission factors, and a Cold Ironing scenario was modeled to assess potential mitigation benefits. Economic implications were estimated through operational cost modeling and conversion of CO₂ emissions into equivalent EU ETS carbon costs. Results: The analysis revealed high berth utilization rates across all years, with substantial variability in waiting times and queue lengths. Congestion was associated with considerable CO₂ emissions, which, when expressed in monetary terms under prevailing EU ETS prices, represent a significant financial burden. The Cold Ironing scenario demonstrated a substantial reduction in at-berth emissions and corresponding cost savings, underscoring its potential as a viable mitigation strategy. Conclusions: Results confirm that operational congestion at the studied berth imposes substantial environmental and financial burdens. The analysis supports targeted interventions such as Just-In-Time arrivals, optimized berth scheduling, and Cold Ironing adoption. Recommendations are most applicable to single-berth bulk cargo operations; future research should extend the approach to multi-berth configurations and incorporate additional operational constraints for broader generalizability. Full article

The aim of this study is an interdisciplinary assessment of the potential of cement pastes to permanently bind carbon dioxide (CO₂) under anaerobic digestion conditions, considering technological, microstructural, environmental, and economic aspects. The research focused on three types of Portland cement: CEM I 52.5N, CEM I 42.5R-1, and CEM I 42.5R-2, differing in phase composition and reactivity, which were evaluated in terms of their carbonation potential and resistance to chemically aggressive environments. The cement pastes were prepared with a water-to-cement ratio of 0.5 and subjected to 90-day exposure in two environments: a reference environment (tap water) and a fermentation environment (aqueous suspension of poultry manure simulating biogas reactor conditions). XRD, TG/DTA, SEM/EDS, and mercury intrusion porosimetry were applied to analyze CO₂ mineralization, phase changes, and microstructural evolution. XRD results revealed a significant increase in calcite content (e.g., for CEM I 52.5N from 5.9% to 41.1%) and the presence of vaterite (19.3%), indicating intense carbonation under organic conditions. TG/DTA analysis confirmed a reduction in portlandite and C-S-H phases, suggesting their transformation into stable carbonate forms. SEM observations and EDS analysis revealed well-developed calcite crystals and the dominance of Ca, C, and O, confirming effective CO₂ binding. In control samples, hydration products predominated without signs of mineralization. The highest sequestration potential was observed for CEM I 52.5N, while cements with higher C₃A content (e.g., CEM I 42.5R-2) exhibited lower chemical resistance. The results confirm that carbonation under fermentation conditions may serve as an effective tool for CO₂ emission management, contributing to improved durability of construction materials and generating measurable economic benefits in the context of climate policy and the EU ETS. The article highlights the need to integrate CO₂ sequestration technologies with emission management systems and life cycle assessment (LCA) of biogas infrastructure, supporting the transition toward a low-carbon economy. Full article

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and its underlying market structure play a central role in the EU’s climate policy. This study analyses how the network of trading relationships within the EU ETS has evolved from a hub-dominated architecture to one marked by structural change and the emergence of new trading dynamics. Using transaction data from Phases I–IV, we apply complex network analysis to assess changes in connectivity, centrality, and community structure. We then construct a Digital Twin of the EU ETS, integrating graph neural networks and logistic regression models to simulate the entry of new participants and predict future trading links. The results indicate shifts in network composition and connectivity, especially in Phase IV, where regulatory innovations and institutional mechanisms appear to play a key role. While our analysis focuses on structural dynamics, these patterns may have broader implications for market performance and policy effectiveness. These findings underscore the importance of monitoring the evolving trading network alongside price signals to support a resilient, efficient, and environmentally credible carbon market. Full article

The transformation of the energy market in Poland over the last 20 years has been a process deeply rooted in European Union policies and initiatives, including emissions trading (EU ETS), climate and energy packages and the European Green Deal. Poland, historically dependent on coal, continues to struggle with systemic problems such as low grid flexibility, ageing infrastructure, high CO₂ emissions and the socio-economic costs of the transition in mining regions. The research methodology is based on analysis of reports, scientific articles, EU documents and statistical data. So far, there is a research gap in the research area, mainly concerning two problems. The first is the lack of a multifaceted, integrated analysis of Poland’s energy transition, taking into account not only technological changes and RES participation, but also systemic problems (infrastructure, policy, social acceptance). The second, in turn, relates to the need to identify the impact of EU regulation as a driving force, not just an obstacle. The objective of the article is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the Polish energy market in the context of the EU over the past 20 years, covering (1) systemic problems of the Polish power sector, (2) the impact of key EU initiatives and regulations, (3) the development of renewable energy sources, (4) the modernisation and digitalisation of the grid, (5) current and future market trends, and (6) the main challenges of the transition. The analysis shows that Poland’s electricity sector is still dominated by coal, but its share is steadily decreasing, from ~85% in 2015 to about 60% in 2023. At the same time, the share of renewable energy sources (mainly wind and photovoltaics) has increased from ~10% to ~27%. Nevertheless, the gap with the EU average remains significant. Full article

With the global maritime industry accelerating toward carbon neutrality, the adoption of alternative marine fuels has emerged as a pivotal pathway for achieving net-zero emissions. To identify the most promising fuel transition solution for multi-purpose heavy-lift vessels (MPHLVs), which are widely used for transporting large and complex industrial equipment and have specialized structural requirements, this study conducted a comprehensive techno-economic analysis based on a fleet of 12 MPHLVs. An eight-dimensional technical adaptability framework was established, and six types of marine fuel were evaluated. Concurrently, a total cost assessment model was developed using 2024 operational data of the fleet, incorporating the fuel procurement, the carbon allowances under the EU ETS, the FuelEU Maritime compliance costs, and the IMO Net-Zero penalties. The results show that methanol as an alternative fuel is the most compatible decarbonization pathway for this specialized vessel type. A case study of a 38,000 DWT methanol-fueled MPHLV further demonstrates engineering feasibility with minimal impact on cargo capacity, and validates methanol’s potential as a technically viable and strategically transitional fuel for MPHLVs, particularly in the context of stricter international decarbonization regulations. The proposed evaluation framework and engineering application offer practical guidance for fuel selection, ship design, and retrofit planning, supporting the broader goal of accelerating low-carbon development in heavy-lift shipping sector. Full article

One of the most important issues in the coming years will be the decarbonisation of the European Union member states’ energy systems. The majority of the abstract requires modification. I propose that the first sentence of the abstract in the manuscript should better emphasize the formulation of the problem. The remaining part and any corrections were made by the author. Scenarios of the importance of CCS in the process of transformation of energy systems in Poland. One of the most important issues in the coming years will be the transformation of the energy systems of the European Union’s member states, which will require the development of appropriate technological solutions. The research presented here analyses the importance of CCS in energy transformation. This article proposes adapting the energy transformation method to the structure of the energy mix and conditions prevailing in a specific country. Poland was adopted as an example for analysis due to its exceptionally complicated situation, taking into account the structure of energy production. For this purpose, an expert opinion survey was conducted. Both measurable variables, such as the volume of CO₂ emissions and EU ETS prices, and a qualitative variable, i.e., the impact of the political environment on the development of CCS, were introduced to the constructed model. The model allowed us to construct three scenarios describing alternative visions for the future development of CCS: optimistic, pessimistic, and neutral, taking into account different conditions in which CCS can develop. The use of fuzzy sets allowed us to eliminate the most serious drawback of planning scenarios based on expert knowledge, which is the subjectivity of their judgments. This research showed that stable conditions of the political environment and predictable legal regulations will be crucial for the application of CCS in the Polish energy sector. The prepared scenarios will enable a quick response and accurate decisions under various conditions of the turbulent environment. This will facilitate the preparation of energy strategies. The scenarios indicate what combinations of variables, under given environmental conditions, of CCS will be of great importance in the energy transformation, and when it may give way to other technologies. In addition, the scenarios, and especially their visualisation, are extremely valuable for stakeholders, because they will allow them to observe the potential development of the situation under known conditions of the political environment, prices, and CO₂ emissions. They enable understanding the dependence of the importance of CCS in the changing environment. They also enable the detection of critical points for the development of CCS, which, as a result of recent geopolitical events, may be of key importance in the near future for ensuring the energy and military security of Poland and the EU. Full article

Member states and interest groups, as key political actors, play crucial roles in the decision-making process of the European Union (EU). This study examines the relationship between the variation in political actors’ preferences and decision-making procedures, emphasizing the roles of interest groups and member states as critical stakeholders. This research employs a process-tracing method, analyzing two case studies—the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)—to investigate the causal mechanisms linking preference heterogeneity to the duration of decision-making processes. The findings reveal that preference heterogeneity functions as a multidimensional factor, encompassing not only disagreements but also the interplay of diverse interest group demands and the strategic positioning of member states within institutional frameworks. By identifying the specific mechanisms of these interactions, this study underscores the importance of accounting for varying levels of issue salience and their impact on procedural dynamics when devising legislative strategies. Full article

Three new asymmetrically coordinated lanthanide derivatives based on the bicompartmental salen-type ligands N,N′-bis(3-ethoxysalicylidene)propylene-1,3-diamine (H₂EtOsalpr) and 3-ethoxysalicylaldehyde (HEtvain) have been synthesized and structurally and photophysically characterized. All the compounds show dimeric structures of the general formula [Ln(H₂EtOsalpr)(NO₃)₂(Etvain)]₂ (Ln = Nd, Eu, Dy), with each salen-type ligand bridging two lanthanide ions. The Etvain ligand comes from the H₂EtOsalpr decomposition being coordinated to the corresponding lanthanide. The Nd(III) derivative shows fluorescence emission in the NIR region, but for the Eu(III) and Dy(III) compounds, only a broad band, attributed to the ligand emission, was observed. Full article

The implementation of the ambitious European Green Deal package and the intensified pursuit of sustainability goals are accompanied by many challenges, particularly for energy-intensive industrial sectors in Germany and the EU. In addition to the rising cost of CO₂ certificates as a burden for companies, the transformation of local production requires enormous investments in CO₂ emission reduction technologies. In order to accelerate the EU’s transition within the EU-ETS to climate neutrality while maintaining the competitiveness of European companies and avoiding the risk of large parts of the industry migrating to less ambitious regions, the European Commission has decided to replace the current system of free allocation with a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This mechanism is intended to ensure that local companies are not disadvantaged by the CO₂ emission costs they have to pay compared to imports from countries with lower CO₂ prices (exports are not included in the protective effect of this instrument). This study compares the effects of various protection instruments in terms of macroeconomic indicators and CO₂ emissions. In addition to the comparison between CBAM and free allocation, the possibility of establishing a climate club in different design variants to expand the protection of the public climate good and avoid carbon leakage is also analyzed. Full article

The pursuit of sustainable development in the implementation of EU energy policy concerns, among other things, the area of trading greenhouse gas emission allowances. The increasing price volatility in the European Union Allowances (EUA) market necessitates the implementation of hedging strategies to minimize the impact of price risk on the operational performance of European enterprises. An intriguing research goal (both in terms of cognitive and practical applications) was to compare the effectiveness of hedging strategies for purchasing EUA in three scenarios: (1) without hedging; (2) hedging based on an unconditional instrument; and (3) hedging based on a conditional instrument. The analysis was conducted on a theoretical-comparative variant and on the example of an entity operating in the real economy. The research objectives were supported by the following methods: 1. Data collection, which included a review of the literature on hedging EUA purchases in the context of connections with financial risk management theories and corporate responsibility, as well as connections with EU ETS policy regulations. 2. Data processing, which involved a quantitative analysis of data mainly from the ICE Endex exchange and its historical quotations (2016–September 2024), including the determination of option pricing using the Black–Scholes model. 3. Expert judgment was used to justify the time frames adopted for the research. The findings revealed that the use of hedging in EUA purchases was effective and led to a reduction in the overall cost of acquisition throughout the analyzed period. The effectiveness of hedging based on an unconditional instrument, such as a futures contract, was higher than that of hedging based on a conditional instrument, such as an option. The results obtained provide a good basis for continuing research on the effectiveness of EUA hedging in extreme scenarios and in conditions of increased volatility. This research approach is justified by the upcoming dismantling of climate initiatives starting in 2025, related to the USA’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Full article

In the forthcoming decades, the energy sector will confront significant transitions related to climate change, supply stability, and energy poverty. The initial two aspects have undergone thorough scientific analysis, whilst the third has received comparatively less analysis despite its significant impact on the lives of millions. Using a systematic literature review, laws and regulations and document analysis, and based on the assumption of an energy ladder, this study provides an overview of energy poverty and its implications. The research focuses on energy poverty in developed countries and answers whether the European Union’s implemented and planned actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions cause energy poverty. Based on the Polish case, the study shows that the EU’s scheduled actions aimed to stabilise climate change, although right in intention, require modification because they do not fully consider the significant economic and energy development diversity of the European Union Member States and may increase energy poverty affecting the European inhabitants. The findings show that due to the implementation of the EU Emission Trading System 2 in 2027, transport costs may increase by almost one-third, which will raise the prices of goods and services and affect energy poverty. This study develops the stream of research on energy poverty, modifies the concept of the energy ladder and shows threats resulting from the ETS2 implementation. The paper proposes the avenues of future research. Full article