Search Results (57)

The shift in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation termini have attracted many investigations, since they affect the hydrological cycle and hence the societies and ecosystems in the tropical and subtropical areas. Using the observed precipitation and three atmospheric reanalysis data sets, different methods have been employed to quantify the changes in the ITCZ position, the Hadley circulation width, terminus position, and center intensity in both hemispheres over the global and seven longitudinal sections. It is found that the ITCZ position from the centroid method is closer to the equator over the global and ocean sections than that from the maximum precipitation method and the mass streamfunction, but the variability between different methods and data sets has significant correlations. The large spread of the ITCZ latitude is mainly from the different methods used. The ITCZ position has shifted away from the equator over 1983–2023, which is consistent across data sets, and the multi-method mean trend from five significant trends is 0.22 ± 0.12°/decade over this period. The south HC branch terminus is expanding poleward; this shift, computed using different methods and data sets, is consistent, and five out of seven are significant. The terminus position shift in the north branch is mixed, and most trends are insignificant except that from P-E. The global mean south branch circulation width has a significant increasing trend, contributed mainly by the northward shift in the ITCZ position; meanwhile, the north circulation width is shrinking insignificantly over 1983–2023. The cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport AHT and the ITCZ position θ_ITCZ from ERA5 are generally anti-correlated, and the correlation coefficients between AHT and θ_ITCZ from different methods are all significant. The multi-method mean northward shift of θ_ITCZ is 3.48 °PW⁻¹. Full article

Climate prediction is of fundamental importance to various sectors of society and the economy, as it can predict the likelihood of droughts or excessive rainfall in vulnerable regions. Climate models are useful tools in producing reliable climate forecasts, which have become increasingly vital due to the rising impacts of climate change. As global temperatures rise, changes in precipitation patterns are expected, increasing the importance of reliable seasonal forecasts to support planning and adaptation efforts. In this study, we evaluated the performance of NOAA/GFDL models from CMIP6 simulations in representing the climate of South America under three configurations: atmosphere-only, coupled ocean-atmosphere, and Earth system. Our analysis revealed that all three configurations successfully captured key climatic features, such as the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), the Bolivian High, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). However, coupled models exhibited larger errors and lower correlation (below 0.6), particularly over the ocean and the South American Monsoon System, which indicates a poor representation of precipitation compared with atmospheric models. The coupled models also overestimated upward motion linked to the southern Hadley cell during austral summer and underestimated it during winter, whereas the atmosphere-only models more accurately simulated the Walker circulation, showing stronger vertical motion around the Amazon. In contrast, the coupled models simulated stronger upward motion over Northeast Brazil, which is inconsistent with reanalysis data. Moreover, we provided insights into how model biases may evolve under climate change scenarios. Future climate projections for the mid-century period (2030–2060) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios indicate significant changes in the global energy balance, with an increase of up to 0.9 W/m². Additionally, the projections reveal significant warming and drying in most of the continent, particularly during the austral spring, accompanied by increases in sensible heat flux and decreases in latent heat flux. These findings highlight the risk of severe and prolonged droughts in some regions and intensified rainfall in others. By identifying and quantifying the biases inherent in climate models, this study provides insights to enhance seasonal forecasts in South America, ultimately supporting strategic planning, impact assessments, and adaptation strategies in vulnerable regions. Full article

Satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) are essential for climate monitoring, especially in regions with sparse observational data. This study compares the performance of the latest version (V07B) and its predecessor (V06B) of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) across South America and the adjacent oceans. It focuses on evaluating their accuracy under different precipitation regimes in Brazil using 22 years of IMERG Final data (2000–2021), aggregated into seasonal totals (summer, autumn, winter, and spring). The observations used for the evaluation were organized into 0.1° × 0.1° grid points to match IMERG’s spatial resolution. The analysis was restricted to grid points containing at least one rain gauge, and in cases where multiple gauges were present within a grid point the average value was used. The evaluation metrics included the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and categorical indices. The results reveal that while both versions effectively capture major precipitation systems such as the mesoscale convective system (MCS), South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), and Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), significant discrepancies emerge in high-rainfall areas, particularly over oceans and tropical zones. Over the continent, however, these discrepancies are reduced due to the correction of observations in the final version of IMERG. A comprehensive analysis of the RMSE across Brazil, both as a whole and within the five analyzed regions, without differentiating precipitation classes, demonstrates that version V07B effectively reduces errors compared to version V06B. The analysis of statistical indices across Brazil’s five regions highlights distinct performance patterns between IMERG versions V06B and V07B, driven by regional and seasonal precipitation characteristics. V07B demonstrates a superior performance, particularly in regions with intense rainfall (R1, R2, and R5), showing a reduced RMSE and improved categorical indices. These advancements are linked to V07B’s reduced overestimation in cold-top cloud regions, although both versions consistently overestimate at rain/no-rain thresholds and for light rainfall. However, in regions prone to underestimation, such as the interior of the Northeastern region (R3) during winter, and the northeastern coast (R4) during winter and spring, V07B exacerbates these issues, highlighting challenges in accurately estimating precipitation from warm-top cloud systems. This study concludes that while V07B exhibits notable advancements, further enhancements are needed to improve accuracy in underperforming regions, specifically those influenced by warm-cloud precipitation systems. Full article

We present multiproxy records from a 2.25-m-long lake sediment profile from central India, which suggested that between ~22,200 and 18,658 cal yr BP, the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) was weak, supporting open vegetation in a cool and dry climate, which is globally correlated with the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The grain size data of this phase suggest low-energy conditions, indicating a weak ISM. Environmental magnetic concentration-dependent parameters also confirm this weakened ISM. Between ~18,658 and 7340 cal yr BP, the ISM underwent a notable increase, and open mixed tropical deciduous forests replaced the existing vegetation under a warm and moderately humid climate. Environmental magnetic parameters and the grain size data signal a shift toward higher energy levels, in harmony with the warm and moderately humid climate during this time span. Between ~7340 and 1960 cal yr BP, the ISM intensity further increased, which supported open mixed tropical deciduous forests with a rise in prominent tree species under a warm and a relatively more humid climate, correlated with the global Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO). The trends in environmental magnetic parameters and grain size data mirror this phase of climatic amelioration. From ~1961 cal yr BP to the present, the ISM has intensified, giving rise to dense mixed tropical deciduous forests under a warm and relatively more humid climate. Environmental magnetic parameters and the grain size data are in tandem with the palynogical findings from this phase of the ISM variability. Full article

The Atmospheric Dynamics Mission ADM-Aeolus was successfully launched in August 2018 by the European Space Agency (ESA). The Aeolus mission carried a single instrument, the first-ever Doppler wind lidar (DWL) in space, called Atmospheric LAser Doppler INstrument (ALADIN). Aeolus circled the Earth, providing vertical profiles of horizontal line-of-sight (HLOS) winds on a global scale. The Aeolus satellite’s measurements filled critical gaps in existing wind observations, particularly in remote regions such as the Brazilian Amazon. This area, characterized by dense rainforests and rich biodiversity, is essential for global climate dynamics. The weather patterns of the Amazon are influenced by atmospheric circulation driven by Hadley cells and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which are crucial for the distribution of moisture and heat from the equator to the subtropics. The data provided by Aeolus can significantly enhance our understanding of these complex atmospheric processes. In this long-term validation study, we used radiosonde data collected from three stations in the Brazilian Amazon (Cruzeiro do Sul, Porto Velho, and Rio Branco) as a reference to assess the accuracy of the Level 2B (L2B) Rayleigh-clear and Mie-cloudy wind products. Statistical validation was conducted by comparing Aeolus L2B wind products and radiosonde data covering the period from October 2018 to March 2023 for Cruzeiro do Sul and Porto Velho, and from October 2018 to December 2022 for Rio Branco. Considering all available collocated winds, including all stations, a Pearson’s coefficient $\left(r\right)$ of 0.73 was observed in Rayleigh-clear and 0.85 in Mie-cloudy wind products, revealing a strong correlation between Aeolus and radiosonde winds, suggesting that Aeolus wind products are reliable for capturing wind profiles in the studied region. The observed biases were −0.14 m/s for Rayleigh-clear and −0.40 m/s for Mie-cloudy, fulfilling the mission requirement of having absolute biases below 0.7 m/s. However, when analyzed annually, in 2022, the bias for Rayleigh-clear was −0.95 m/s, which did not meet the mission requirements. Full article

In this paper, the global distribution of precipitation for 2023, in terms of global totals and regional anomaly patterns, is analyzed using information from the new Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) V3.2 Monthly product, including how the precipitation amounts and patterns from 2023 fit into the longer record from 1983–2023. The tropical pattern of anomalies for 2023 is dominated by the effect of the El Nino which began during the Northern Hemisphere spring, after three plus years of La Nina conditions. The transition from La Nina conditions through 2022 shows the rapid change in many regional features from positive to negative anomalies or the reverse. Comparison of the observed regional trend maps with climate model results indicates similarity between the observations and the model results forced by observed SSTs, while the “free-running” model ensemble shows only a broad general agreement over large regions. Global total precipitation shows about a 3% range over the span of data, with El Nino and La Nina years prominent as positive and negative features, with 2023 showing a small positive global anomaly. The ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) latitude band, 0–10° N, sets a record high mean rain rate in 2023 after a steady upward trend over the decades, probably a response related to global warming. Full article

As prominent abrupt climatic events during the last deglaciation and the early Holocene, the Younger Dryas (YD) and the 8.2 ka events have been intensely discussed to reveal the relationship between their phases and intensities, and their underlying mechanisms based on massive marine and terrestrial archives. However, the related paleoclimate records with sufficient resolution and/or precise age constraints from the Southern Hemisphere, especially East Africa, are relatively sparse, hindering our comprehensive understanding about the phases of these two events. Here, we provide a precisely dated record of an aragonite-calcite stalagmite covering 11.3–13.5 ka BP from northwest Madagascar to unravel the arid conditions during the YD, in contrast to the pluvial conditions in the 8.2 ka event that has been evidenced before. Changes in austral summer precipitation related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) have always been interpreted to be the primary means of controlling regional rainfall amounts and thus the δ¹⁸O variations in stalagmite. However, ITCZ’s meridional migration alone is not enough to interpret the opposite hydroclimatic conditions during the YD and the 8.2 ka events in northwest Madagascar. The variation in convection intensity within the ITCZ combined with the rainfall dipole mode in East Africa, and the redistribution of the duration of the ITCZ’s presence at different latitudes might be responsible for this phenomenon. In addition, sea surface temperature could play a nonnegligible role. Full article

Variations in solar insolation caused by changes in the Earth’s orbit—specifically its eccentricity, obliquity, and precession—can leave discernible marks on the geologic record. Astrochronology leverages these markers to establish a direct connection between chronological measurements and different facets of climate change as recorded in marine sediments. This approach offers a unique window into the Earth’s climate system and the construction of high-resolution, continuous time scales. Our study involves comprehensive bulk carbonate analyses of 390 discrete samples from core SCS1, which was retrieved from the deep-sea floor of the northern South China Sea. By utilizing carbonate stratigraphic data, we have developed a carbonate stratigraphic age model. This was achieved by aligning the carbonate sequence from core SCS1 with the established carbonate standard stratigraphic time scale of the South China Sea. Subsequently, we construct an astronomically tuned time scale based on this age model. Our findings indicate that sediment records in this core have been predominantly influenced by a 20,000-year cycle (precession cycle) throughout the Late Pleistocene. We have developed an astronomical time scale extending back approximately 110,000 years from the present, with a resolution of 280 years, by tuning the carbonate record to the precession curve. Time-domain spectral analysis of the tuned carbonate time series, alongside the consistent comparability of the early Holocene low-carbonate event (11–8 kyr), underscores the reliability of our astronomical time scale. Our age model exposes intricate variations in carbonate deposition, epitomizing a typical “Pacific-type” carbonate cycle. Previous research has illustrated that precession forcing predominantly influences productivity changes in the South China Sea. The pronounced precession-related cycle observed in our record suggests that changes in productivity significantly impact carbonate content in the area under study. Furthermore, the clear precession period identified in the carbonate record of core SCS1 reflects the response of low-latitude processes to orbital parameters, implying that carbonate deposition and preservation in core SCS1 are chiefly influenced by the interplay between the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the monsoon system within the precession band. Our astronomical time scale is poised to enhance paleoceanographic, paleoclimatic, and correlation studies further. Additionally, the independent evidence we provide for using proxy records for astronomical age calibration of marine sediments lends additional support to similar methods of astronomical tuning. Full article

The westerly circulation and the monsoon circulation are the two major atmospheric circulation systems affecting the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), which have significant impacts on climate and environmental changes in the middle latitudes. However, until now, people’s understanding of the long-term paleoenvironmental changes in the westerly- and monsoon-controlled areas in China’s middle latitudes is not uniform, and the phase relationship between the two at different time scales is also controversial, especially the exception to the “dry gets drier, wet gets wetter” paradigm in global warming between the two. Based on the existing literature data published, integrated paleoenvironmental records, and comprehensive simulation results in recent years, this study systematically reviews the climate and environmental changes in the two major circulation regions in the mid-latitudes of China since the Middle Pleistocene, with a focus on exploring the phase relationship between the two systems at different time scales and its influencing mechanism. Through the reanalysis and comparative analysis of the existing data, we conclude that the interaction and relationship between the two circulation systems are relatively strong and close during the warm periods, but relatively weak during the cold periods. From the perspective of orbital, suborbital, and millennium time scales, the phase relationship between the westerly and Asian summer monsoon (ASM) circulations shows roughly in-phase, out-of-phase, and anti-phase transitions, respectively. There are significant differences between the impacts of the westerly and ASM circulations on the middle-latitude regions of northwest China, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and eastern China. However, under the combined influence of varied environmental factors such as BHLSR (boreal high-latitude solar radiation), SST (sea surface temperature), AMOC (north Atlantic meridional overturning circulation), NHI (Northern Hemisphere ice volume), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone), WPSH (western Pacific subtropical high), TIOA (tropical Indian Ocean anomaly), ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), CGT/SRP (global teleconnection/Silk Road pattern), etc., there is a complex and close coupling relationship between the two, and it is necessary to comprehensively consider their “multi-factor’s joint-action” mechanism and impact, while, in general, the dynamic mechanisms driving the changes of the westerly and ASM circulations are not the same at different time scales, such as orbital, suborbital, centennial to millennium, and decadal to interannual, which also leads to the formation of different types of phase relationships between the two at different time scales. Future studies need to focus on the impact of this “multi-factor linkage mechanism” and “multi-phase relationship” in distinguishing the interaction between the westerly and ASM circulation systems in terms of orbital, suborbital, millennium, and sub-millennium time scales. Full article

This study investigates the importance of convective systems for extreme rainfall along the northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea (GG) and their relationship with atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Convective system data (MCSs), daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and moisture flux anomalies from June to September 2007–2016 are used. The results show that 2/3 of MCSs crossing Abidjan are produced in June, which is the core of the major rainy season. Likewise, 2/3 of MCSs originate from continental areas, while 1/3 come from the ocean. Oceanic MCSs are mostly initiated close to the coast, which also corresponds to the Marine Heat Waves region. Continental MCSs are mostly initiated inland. The results also highlight the moisture flux contribution of three zones which have an impact on the onset and the sustaining of MCSs: (i) the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), (ii) the GG across the northern coastline, and finally (iii) the continent. These contributions of moisture fluxes coincide with oceanic warming off Northeast Brazil and the northern coast of the GG both two days before and the day of extreme rainfall events. The ocean contributes to moisten the atmosphere, and therefore to supply and sustain the MCSs during their lifecycle. Full article

In Central Africa, groundwater remains the least understood component of the water cycle. Isotopic techniques that are well known to be efficient in tracking the movement of water along its path have been applied for only three decades and can be summarized in a handful of case studies. This review aims to put together all the stable and radioactive isotopic data (>500 samples from rainfall, surface and groundwater) published in Cameroon to: (i) identify the drivers responsible for precipitation isotopes’ spatial variation and climatological implications, (ii) elucidate the groundwater recharge mechanisms over the countries and relationships with rivers, and (iii) highlight the existence of paleo-groundwater in the country. It is found that rainfall stable isotope variation is linked to the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ): the groundwater recharge can be diffuse and focused. This latter mechanism is mainly observed in the semi-arid region. It is in this relatively dry region that most of the paleo-groundwater resources are identified thanks to ¹⁴C dating. This information will be useful to develop water management strategies regarding all the challenges (e.g., climatic and demographic) faced by the country. Finally, this paper discusses the gaps groundwater isotope hydrology can still fill for contributing to a sustainable development of the country. Full article

The civilization and tangible cultural heritage of the Kharga Oasis has a historical precedence over that of the old Nile Valley civilization. Approximately 12,000 years ago, a significant prehistoric migration occurred from the Kharga Oasis to the Nile Valley. This event was motivated by climate change and the southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which caused a shift in Egypt’s savannah forests from abundant vegetation to an extremely dry desert. The present study investigates the progressive deterioration of the tangible cultural and civilized legacy of the Kharga Oasis over the course of several millennia, positing that this phenomenon can be attributed to the area’s vulnerability to paleoclimatic fluctuations. The evaluation of the Kharga Oasis’ susceptibility to climate change was predicated on the scrutiny of petroglyphs that were unearthed at different sites within the Oasis. This analysis was reinforced by paleoclimate information and radiocarbon dating (C14). The utilization of an interdisciplinary approach yielded significant insights into the dynamic climate patterns and their effects on the Kharga Oasis across temporal scales. The results illustrated a noteworthy alteration in climate, which caused the conversion of the Oasis terrain from being heavily wooded to becoming arid, mainly due to extended periods of drought. The present research postulates a novel and alternate hypothesis concerning the archaeological chronology of human habitation in the Kharga Oasis from ancient eras, predicated on the analysis of pictorial depictions on rock surfaces. The findings of this study made a noteworthy contribution to the current corpus of knowledge regarding the vulnerability of the ancient Egyptian society to the impacts of climate variability. Moreover, the petroglyphs’ depictions provided a distinctive viewpoint on the climatic fluctuations that occurred in the Sahara and North Africa throughout the Holocene epoch, as well as the fundamental causative factors. Full article

This study investigates the effect of mesoscale eddies on air–sea heat and fresh water exchange in the tropical Atlantic Ocean (TAO) using 8 years of satellite altimetry data, combined with sea surface temperature (SST), latent and sensible heat fluxes (LHF and SHF), infrared fluxes (IRF) and precipitation (PR) data. Results indicate that approximately ∼40% of cyclonic eddies contribute to warm SST anomalies, and ∼40% of anticyclonic eddies contribute to cold SST anomalies. Eddies were found to play a role in the variability in LHF, SHF and IRF, contributing 10–35% of their total variability, with the largest contributions observed beneath the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and frontal SST areas. Composite analysis of SST and heat flux anomalies over eddies suggested that the anomalies created through horizontal advection processes may not significantly impact the overall LHF, SHF and IRF over eddies, contrary to vertical processes. Despite a lack of clear correlation between heat flux and PR anomalies over eddies in the TAO, significant correlations were found beneath the ITCZ, suggesting that eddies may impact both heat fluxes and PR in the ITCZ region. This study provides an original contribution to the understanding of the impact of ocean mesoscale eddies on the atmosphere in the TAO. Full article

Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) primarily governs the convective rainfall potential of the summer monsoon in Asia. In the present study, non-parametric trend test with outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for the summer monsoon period for the last 42 years (1980–2021) have been analyzed for ITCZ zone, representative zones of Hadley circulation and Walker circulation for exploring trend of the deep convection activity. Besides, various climatic variables like temperature (maximum, minimum, mean), precipitation, and cloud cover dataset are used for exploring trend in major rice growing regions of the world. The results indicate that there is a significantly decreasing trend of OLR in ITCZ zone during summer monsoon season. Contrarily, major rice growing regions of the world have witnessed a significantly increasing trend for the temperature parameter among all the zones. Rainfall and cloud cover have shown a typical trend i.e., increasing rainfall but decreasing cloud cover in the Southeast Asian and Maritime Continent rice growing regions. In rice suitable climate assessment, it has been found that the Maritime Continent rice growing region, the Indo-Gangetic Plain and the Southeast Asian rice growing regions have witnessed better rice suitable climates than other rice growing regions during the last 42 years (1980–2021). Full article

Climate patterns are natural processes that drive climate variability in the short, medium, and long term. Characterizing the patterns behind climate variability is essential to understand the functioning of the regional atmospheric system. Since investigations typically reveal only the link and extent of the influence of climate patterns in specific regions, the magnitude of that influence in meteorological records usually remains unclear. The central Peruvian Andes are affected by most of the common climate patterns of tropical areas, such as Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Sea Surface Temperature (SST), solar irradiance, Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). They are also affected by regional processes that are exclusive from South America, such as the South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ), South American Monsoon System (SAMS), Bolivian High (BH), and Humboldt Current. The aim of this research is to study the climate variability of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature records over Cordillera Blanca (Peru), and its relationship with the intensity and periodicity of the common climate patterns that affect this region. To achieve this aim, a spectral analysis based on Lomb’s Periodogram was performed over meteorological records (1986–2019) and over different climate pattern indexes. Results show a coincidence in periodicity between MJO and SALLJ, with monthly cycles for precipitation and temperature (27-day, 56-day, and 90-day cycles). Moreover, the most intense periodicities, such as annual (365 days) and biannual (182 and 122 days) cycles in meteorological variables, possibly would be led by ITCZ and ENSO together, as well as a combination of the Humboldt Current and SALLJ. Additionally, interannual periodicities (3-year, 4.5-year, 5.6–7-year and 11-year cycles) would have coincidence with the ENSO–solar combination, while the longest cycles (16 years) could match PDO variability. Full article