Search Results (30)

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCCs) shapes catchment dynamics and is a key driver of hydrological risks, affecting hydrological responses as vegetated land is replaced with urban developments and cultivated land. The resultant hydrological risks are likely to become more critical in the future as the climate changes and becomes increasingly variable. Understanding the effects of LULCC is vital for developing land management strategies and reducing adverse effects on the hydrological cycle and the environment. This study examines LULCC dynamics in the Niger Delta Region (NDR) of Nigeria from 1986 to 2024. A supervised maximum likelihood classification was applied to Landsat 5 TM and 8 OLI images from 1986, 2015, and 2024. Five land use classes were classified: Water bodies, Rainforest, Built-up, Agriculture, and Mangrove. The overall accuracy of the land use classification and Kappa coefficients were 93% and 0.90, 91% and 0.87, 84% and 0.79 for 1986, 2015, and 2024, respectively. Between 1986 and 2024, built-up and agriculture areas substantially increased by about 8229 and 6727 km² (561% and 79%), respectively, with a concomitant decrease in mangrove and vegetation areas of about 14,350 and 10,844 km² (−54% and −42%), respectively. The spatial distribution of changes across the NDR states varied, with Delta, Bayelsa, Cross River, and Rivers States experiencing the highest decrease in rainforest, with losses of 64%, 55, 44%, and 44% (5711 km², 3554 km², 2250 km², and 1297 km²), respectively. The NDR’s mangroves are evidently under serious threat. This has important implications, particularly given the important role played by mangrove forests in regulating hydrological hazards. The dramatic decrease in the NDR mangrove and rainforest could exacerbate climate-related impacts. The study provides quantitative information on LULCC dynamics that could be used to support planning on land management practices in the NDR as well as sustainable development. Full article

Climate change (CC) and land use/land cover change (LULCC) are significant drivers of hydrological change, and an effective watershed management requires a detailed understanding of their individual and the combined impact. This study focused on the Athabasca River Basin (ARB), Canada, and investigated how the basin responded to their changes using the MIKE SHE-MIKE Hydro River. Our findings revealed novel insights into ARB hydrological changes, including increment in non-vegetated lands (0.26%), savannas (1.28%), forests (0.53%), and urban areas (0.02%) while grasslands (2.07%) and shrublands (0.03%) decreased. Moreover, the basin experienced rising annual minimum (1.01 °C) and maximum (0.85 °C) temperatures but declining precipitation (6.2%). The findings suggested a significant impact of CC compared to LULCC as CC caused annual reduction in streamflow (7.9%), evapotranspiration (4.8%), and recharge (6.9%). Meanwhile, LULCC reduced streamflow (0.2%) and recharge (0.4%) but increased evapotranspiration (0.1%). The study revealed spatiotemporal variability across the ARB, with temperature impacts stronger in winter and precipitation influencing other seasons. Full article

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is crucial in sustainable land management. Over the past four decades, the Min River Basin (MRB) has experienced significant LULCC. This study investigated the dynamics of LULCC over these decades (1980–2020) and discusses the key drivers of land use change in different stages. First, we mapped and quantified changes (i.e., LULCC and landscape indices) in forests, croplands, urban areas, and water bodies from 1980 to 2020 using the China National Land Use/Cover Change (CNLUCC) and ArcGIS Pro 2.3. Second, by analyzing existing policies, we categorized four decades of LULCC trends from 1980 to 2020, delineating three distinct stages: (1) the Economic Restoration (ER) stage (1978–1989), when the ecological impacts of LULCC on forests, croplands, and water bodies received limited policy attention; (2) the Construction of Ecological Protection and Economic Development (EPED) stage (1989–2012), which saw a significant increase in forest coverage, primarily driven by various central and provincial environmental conservation policies, such as the Green for Grain and the “Three-Five-Seven Reforestation Project” in Fujian; and (3) the Ecological Civilization (EC) stage (2012–2020), in which policy focus shifted from expanding forest land areas to enhancing the quality of these areas. However, the cropland area has decreased due to urbanization policies and population migration from rural to urban areas, including the above-mentioned forest policies. Thus, this study highlights the complex relationship between different land use land cover policies, as some policies had synergistic effects between the policies and positive outcomes, while other policies showed conflicting outcomes. Our results emphasize the importance of integrated land and water resource management and provide insights for policymakers to balance development and environmental conservation policies in the MRB. Full article

The Maasai Mara and the wider Mau River Basin in East Africa provide fundamental ecosystem services that support people, wildlife, livestock and agriculture. The historical indigenous land use of the Mara and wider Mau basin was wildlife conservation and pastoralism with highland agriculture. However, land policy changes, the rise of community conservancies and the increase in human populations have mediated unprecedented land use shifts over time. We analyze land use and land cover change (LULCC) trends from 1990 to 2040 in the Mara and the wider Mau River Basin landscape. The study examines land use and land cover change trends, establishes factors driving the trends, and assesses the implications of these trends on biodiversity. Multi-temporal satellite images, together with physical and social economic data, were collated to generate future scenarios for transitions for forest, shrubland, grassland, cropland, wetlands and built-up areas between 1990 and 2040. Agricultural expansion is the chief driver of LULCC in the Mara and the wider Mau River Basin, particularly since 2015. There was insignificant change to the forest cover after 2015, which was in part due to government intervention on forest encroachment and boundaries. The anthropogenic choice of tilling the land in the basin caused a decline in grasslands, forests and expanded shrublands, particularly where there was clear tree cutting in the Mau forest. Land use and land cover trends have generated undesirable impacts on ecosystem services that support wildlife conservation. Full article

This study examines the dynamics of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in the Gargano area (Southern Italy) to reveal crucial insights into the socio-economic and environmental impacts on its unique natural and cultural resources. This analysis was conducted using a mixed approach of GIS data and expert interviews to investigate significant changes in the Gargano area, from 2000 to 2018, and their drivers. Artificial surfaces gained 22% of their original surfaces, while heterogeneous areas and pastures lost 25% and 78%, respectively. Urbanization and deforestation emerged as major concerns, reflecting heightened sensitivity to these transformative processes. Agricultural intensification and support policies were perceived as potential pressure sources on specific natural components. Conversely, these drivers counteracted land abandonment. Drivers such as education level and agricultural extensification were seen as levers for a more desirable land cover dynamic. Identified actions include providing targeted support for agriculture within environmental constraints, addressing land ownership fragmentation, supporting agricultural extensification, and promoting environmental awareness. Full article

Land use/cover change (LULCC) is an integral part of global environmental change and is influenced by both natural and socioeconomic factors. This study aims to comprehensively analyze land use and land cover (LULC) in Kwazulu-Natal and Mpumalanga provinces in eastern South Africa from 1995 to 2020 and to identify the driving force behind LULCC. Utilizing Landsat series satellite imagery as a data source and based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and eCognition software 9.0, two different classification methods, pixel-based classification and object-oriented classification, were adopted to gather LULC data every five years. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the data were then analyzed. Using an optimal parameter-based geodetector (OPGD), this study explored the driving factors of LULCC in this region. The results show the following: (1) Of the two classification methods examined, the object-oriented classification had higher accuracy, with an overall accuracy of 80–90%. The pixel-based classification had lower accuracy, with an overall accuracy of 62.33–72.14%. (2) From 1995 to 2020, the area of farmland in the study area showed a fluctuating increase, while the areas of forest and grassland declined annually. The area of constructed land increased annually, whereas the areas of water and unused land fluctuated over time. (3) Socioeconomic factors generally had greater explanatory power than natural factors, with population growth and economic development being the main drivers of LULCC in the region. This study provides a reliable scientific basis for the formulation of sustainable land resource development strategies in the area, as well as for the management and implementation of urban and rural planning, ecological protection, and environmental governance by relevant departments. Full article

Wildfires are key drivers of land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics by burning vegetation and affecting human infrastructure. On the contrary, LULC changes (LULCCs) may affect the fire regime by influencing vegetation type, burnable areas, fuel loads and continuity. This study investigates the relationship between LULCC and wildfires. We developed a methodology based on different indicators, which allowed us to quantitatively assess and better understand the transitions between LULC classes and burnt area (BA) in Europe in the last two decades (2000–2019). The assessment was performed for the entire European continent and, independently, for each of the five European countries most affected by wildfires: Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece. The main results are the following: (i) LULCC analysis revealed a net loss in forests and arable land and a net gain in shrubs; (ii) most of the BA occurred in forests (42% for the whole of Europe), especially in coniferous forests; (iii) transitions from BA generally were to transitional woodland/shrub or, again, to BA. Overall, our results confirm the existence of a strong relationship between wildfires and LULCCs in Europe, which was quantified in the present study. These findings are of paramount importance in fire and environmental system management and ecology. Full article

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is the result of both natural and socio-economic determinants. The aim of this study was to model the determinant factors of land cover changes in Raya Valley, Southern Tigray, Ethiopia. Multistage sampling was used to collect data from 246 households sampled from lowlands (47), midlands (104), highlands (93), and sub-alpine (2) agro-climatological zone. Descriptive statistics and logit regression model were used to analyze the field survey data. Agricultural land expansion, fuelwood extraction, deforestation, overgrazing and expansion of infrastructure were the proximate causes of LULCC in the study area. Agricultural land expansion (p = 0.084) and wood extraction for fuel and charcoal production (p = 0.01) were the prominent causes for LULCC. Persistent drought (p = 0.001), rapid population growth (p = 0.027), and climate variability (p = 0.013) were the underlying driving factors of LULCC. The determinants of LULCC need to be considered and mitigated to draw robust land use policy for sustainable land management by the smallholder farmers. This study provides important results for designing and implementing scientific land management strategies by policy makers and land managers. Full article

Miombo woodlands (MW) are increasingly experiencing widespread land use and land cover change (LULCC). This study explores the influence of fire, agriculture, and slope variability on LULCC in the miombo of the Beira Corridor. Land use and land cover data were derived from three Landsat images for 2001, 2008, and 2018. Slope attributes were derived from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Monthly burned data of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used to map fire frequency. The derived data were then used to investigate the relationship between LULCC and fire, agriculture, and slope, based on geographically weighted regression (GWR). In addition, the relationship between LULCC and slope was assessed. Our findings indicate that fire frequency, agriculture, and slope were significantly spatially non-stationary. We found that LULCC was negatively correlated with agriculture in open miombo, but positively correlated in dense miombo. A positive relationship between LULCC and fire was found for dense and open miombo. Changes in agriculture, dense miombo, and open miombo increased towards high slopes. The study improves the understanding of the spatial effect of LULCC drivers. The development and implementation of effective fire management actions is required to promote sustainable forest management and preservation of critical ecosystem services. Full article

Quick population increase and the desire for urbanization are the main drivers for accelerating urban expansion on agricultural lands in Egypt. This issue is obvious in governorates with no desert backyards. This study aims to (1) explore the trend of Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) through the period of 1991–2018; (2) upgrade the reliability of predicting LULCC by integrating the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP); and (3) perform analysis of urbanization risk on LST trends over the Gharbia governorate for the decision makers to implement effective strategies for sustainable land use. Multi-temporal Landsat images were used to monitor LULCC dynamics from 1991 to 2018 and then simulate LULCC in 2033 and 2048. Two comparable models were adopted for the simulation of spatiotemporal dynamics of land use in the study area: CA-Markov chain and FAHP-CA-Markov chain hybrid models. The second model upgrades the potential of the CA-Markov chain for prediction by its integration with FAHP, which can determine the locations of high potential to be urbanized. The outcomes stated a significant LULCC in Gharbia during the study period—specifically, urban sprawl on agricultural land, and this trend is predicted to carry on. The agricultural sector represented 91.2% in 1991 and reduced to 83.7% in 2018. The built-up area is almost doubled by 2048 with respect to 2018. The regression analysis revealed the LST increase due to urbanization, causing an urban heat island phenomenon. Criteria-based analysis reveals the district’s vulnerability to rapid urbanization, which is efficient for data-gap zones. The simulation results make sense since the FAHP-CA-Markov simulated the LULCC in a thoughtful way, considering the driving forces of LULCC, while the CA-Markov chain results were relatively random. Therefore, the FAHP-CA-Markov chain is the pioneer to be relied upon for future projection. The findings of this work provide a better understanding of LULCC trends over the years supporting decision makers toward sustainable land use. Thus, further urbanization should be planned to avert the loss of agricultural land and uninterrupted increasing temperatures. Full article

Land consumption and climate change have intensified natural disasters in urban areas. In response to these emergencies under the European 2030 Agenda, Sustainable Development Goals have been established to improve ecosystem protection and increase resilience and adaptation to natural disasters globally (Goal 13 “Climate action” and Goal 15 “Life on land”). In order to implement governance tools appropriately, it is necessary to know the relationships among the drivers, the changes in the state of urban ecosystems and agro-ecosystems, and the impact on the supply of goods and services at spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes (LULCCs) in the metropolitan area of Rome have been investigated, with the purpose of detecting the synergistic variations in the supply of the flood mitigation and agricultural production ecosystem services (ES). The methodology is based on a GIS (Geographic Information System) analysis that identifies the transformation processes and permanencies related to land-cover. The variation in flood mitigation services was quantified through the use of the Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model (UFRM) from the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) suite, while the variation in agricultural production through productivity coefficients was associated with changes in land-uses. Finally, an analysis of LULC-induced synergies and trade-offs between the two services was performed. The results show a net negative change in ES supply, caused mainly by urbanization at the expense of agricultural land. This decrease in ES supply is not offset by other LULCC transitions. In addition, the analysis of synergies and trade-offs between flood mitigation ES and agricultural production ES (in arable land, orchards, vineyards, and olive groves) shows that the reduction of agricultural land negatively affects both ES. The innovative contribution of this paper lies in setting an integrated methodology that is able to investigate how LULCC influences both hydraulic safety and food security. Findings can be useful to support planning of enhancing the role of agriculture in metropolitan areas. Full article

Policy failure in controlling horizontal urban expansion coupled with agricultural/cultivated land expansion typically leads to forest degradation mostly in developing countries. Peri-urban areas are havens and vulnerable and dispute areas of uncontrolled urban expansion and forest degradation. This study was aimed to assess the effect of cultivated land and urban expansion land use/land cover change (LULCC) dynamics rate on peri-urban forest degradation and implications on sustainable environment management there by identifying the derivers of LULCC. The study used Landsat images of 2002, 2010 and 2018 and examines the underlying factors. The results revealed significant conversion from forest and grass land to built-up and cultivated land. The proportion of built-up area and cultivated land increased to 75 ha yr⁻¹ and 85 ha yr⁻¹ of the study area from 2002 to 2018, respectively. The identified drivers were generally grouped as proximate and underlying drivers. The effect of driving factors in shaping LULCC tends to remain stable over time, and the gradual enforcement of spatial planning policies appears to be important factors in dynamics of LULCC. Hence, it was suggested that integrated land-use planning and management has a paramount importance of reducing peri-urban forest degradation and maintaining sustainable environmental management. Full article

Land use change analysis provides valuable information for landscape monitoring, managing, and prioritizing large area conservation practices. There has been significant interest in the southeastern United States (SEUS) due to substantial land change from various economic activities since the 1940s. This study uses quantitative data from the Economic Research Service (ERS) for landscape change analysis, addressing land change among five major land types for twelve states in the SEUS from 1945 to 2012. The study also conducted a literature review using the PSALSAR framework to identify significant drivers related to land type changes from research articles within the region. The analysis showed how each land type changed over the period for each state in the time period and the percentage change for the primary drivers related to land use change. The literature review identified significant drivers of land use and land cover change (LULCC) within the SEUS. The associated drivers were categorized into natural and artificial drivers, then further subdivided into eight categories related to land type changes in the region. A schematic diagram was developed to show land type changes that impacted environmental changes from various studies in the SEUS. The results concluded that Forest land accounted for 12% change and agricultural land for 20%; population growth in the region is an average of 2.59% annually. It also concluded that the need for research to understand past land use trends, direction and magnitude of land cover changes is essential. Significant drivers such as urban expansion and agriculture are critical to the impending use of land in the region; their impacts are attributed to environmental changes in the region and must be monitored. Full article

Land includes vegetation and water bodies and provides the basis for human livelihoods through primary production, food and freshwater supply, and multiple other ecosystem services. The last three decades have recorded frequent drought events as well as rapid population growth, which has often resulted in adverse land use and land cover change (LULCC) in the Sahel of Sub-Saharan Africa. In order to propose sustainable land management strategies, it is a prerequisite to investigate the rate of LULCC and its driving factors in specific locations. This study investigated the case of Wacoro municipality in Mali using a combined approach of remote sensing, Geographic Information Systems, and focus group discussions. Satellite images and local people’s perceptions on LULCC and drivers were collected and analyzed for the years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. We found that the study area faced a rapid decrease in wooded savannah that was degraded and converted to shrub savannah and later to farmland and settlement. Changes were directly or indirectly related to the rapid population growth, high cotton price (which encouraged cropland expansion), drought, firewood extraction, and charcoal production, which was exacerbated by poverty. We suggest promoting integrated land management strategies that consider current and future livelihood needs and preserve the environment for the benefits of future generations. New agricultural policies, such as cotton price incentives, should always be accompanied by an assessment of their potential environmental impacts and design of adequate mitigation measures. Full article

Ecosystems in semi-arid areas remain essential to securing livelihoods and aiding climate change adaptation. However, land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) is the leading driver of biodiversity, ecosystem services, habitat, and ecosystem loss in most rural areas of developing countries. We evaluated LULCC in the Bobirwa sub-district of Botswana between 1995 and 2015. We employed the supervised classification’s maximum likelihood algorithm on the 1995, 2005, and 2016 Landsat images to establish the implications of LULCC on the delivery of provisioning ecosystem services (ES) and ecosystem-based adaptation in the Limpopo Basin part of Botswana. Five major LULC classes—vegetation, cropland, bare land, built-up areas, and water bodies—were identified in the sub-district. The decline in vegetation by 50.67 km²/year between 1995 and 2016 was characterized by an increase in croplands (34.02 km²/year). These changes were attributed to the growing human population that induced farming households to expand croplands. Government programs also encouraged agricultural expansions by offering free inputs and compensating smallholder farmers for land preparation. Higher agricultural yields remained critically low while the loss of vegetated areas to croplands threatened biodiversity, habitats, and the sustainability of provisioning ES through impaired ecosystem functions. There is an urgent need to arrest all unnecessary agricultural expansions and enhance agricultural productivity from current land parcels. The government and other relevant stakeholders also need to strengthen the ecosystem management capacities of local communities and support them to develop and implement biodiversity-based village action plans. Engaging communities through participatory, biodiversity-based action planning promotes biodiversity conservation and the sustainable use of ecosystem resources. Full article