Search Results (212)

We investigate the excitation and variability of migrating and non-migrating diurnal and semi-diurnal tides in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) during the 2021 Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Zonal wind data from MERRA-2 reanalysis are decomposed into tidal components using a two-dimensional least-squares harmonic fitting technique. The migrating diurnal tide (DW1) strengthens at low latitudes following the SSW onset, whereas the migrating semi-diurnal tide (SW2) intensifies at high latitudes. Non-migrating diurnal tides (D0, DW2, DW3) arise from nonlinear interactions between DW1 and stationary planetary waves (SPWs), while non-migrating semi-diurnal tides (SW1, SW3) are modulated by stratospheric ozone variability linked to planetary-wave activity. The zonally symmetric semi-diurnal tide (S0) responds primarily to dynamical perturbations associated with the SSW. Eastward non-migrating diurnal tides (DE2, DE3) correlate strongly with total precipitable water vapor (TPWV), indicating tropospheric latent-heat forcing, whereas DE1 exhibits weak coupling. These results reveal distinct, latitude-dependent excitation pathways connecting stratospheric and tropospheric dynamics to tidal variability in the MLT during major SSW events. Full article

Hydroelectricity, one of the oldest and most potent forms of renewable energy, not only provides low-cost electricity for the grid but also preserves nature through flood control and irrigation support. Forecasting hydroelectricity generation is vital for utilizing alleviating resources effectively, optimizing energy production, and ensuring sustainability. This paper provides an innovative approach to hydroelectricity generation forecasting (HGF) of a 138 MW hydroelectric power plant (HPP) in the Eastern Mediterranean by taking electricity productions from the remaining upstream HPPs on the Ceyhan River within the same basin into account, unlike prior research focusing on individual HPPs. In light of tuning hyperparameters such as number of trees and learning rates, this paper presents a thorough benchmark of the state-of-the-art tree-based machine learning models, namely categorical boosting (CatBoost), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and light gradient boosting machines (LightGBM). The comprehensive data set includes historical hydroelectricity generation, meteorological conditions, market pricing, and calendar variables acquired from the transparency platform of the Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) and MERRA-2 reanalysis of the NASA with hourly resolution. Although all three models demonstrated successful performances, LightGBM emerged as the most accurate and efficient model by outperforming the others with the highest coefficient of determination (R²) (97.07%), the lowest root mean squared scaled error (RMSSE) (0.1217), and the shortest computational time (1.24 s). Consequently, it is considered that the proposed methodology demonstrates significant potential for advancing the HGF and will contribute to the operation of existing HPPs and the improvement of power dispatch planning. Full article

Biomass burning in the Amazon region, especially during the dry season, generates aerosol dispersion events across the southern part of the continent, with impacts observable thousands of kilometers from the emission source. This study presents a long-range aerosol transport case from September 2024, in which smoke aerosols from forest fires in the central Amazon reached southeastern and southern Brazil, affecting the air quality in distant areas such as São Paulo and São Martinho. The event was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), configured with the MOZCART chemical mechanism, combined with MERRA-2 reanalysis data and by using the 3BEM biomass burning emission inventory. Satellite datasets from MODIS and MERRA-2 reanalysis were used to evaluate the model’s performance. The results indicate that the South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ) played a key role in transporting carbonaceous aerosols over long distances. The model successfully captured the spatial and temporal evolution of the aerosol plume and its impacts, although it tended to underestimate aerosol optical depth (AOD) values compared with satellite observations. This study highlights the WRF-Chem’s capability to simulate extreme smoke transport events in South America and supports its potential application in forecasting and air quality assessments. Full article

Aerosols from natural and anthropogenic sources exert significant yet highly variable influences on the Earth’s radiative balance characterized by pronounced spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Accurate quantification of these effects is crucial for enhancing climate projections and informing effective mitigation strategies. In this study, we evaluated the performance of three widely used aerosol optical depth (AOD) datasets—MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2), MODIS Aqua, and MODIS Terra—by comparing them against ground-based AERONET observations from ten stations located within the dust belt region. Statistical assessments included coefficient of determination (R²), correlation coefficient (R), Index of Agreement (IOA), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Relative Mean Bias (RMB), and standard deviation (SD). The results indicate that MERRA-2 showed the highest agreement (R = 0.76), followed by MODIS Aqua (R = 0.75) and MODIS Terra (R = 0.73). Seasonal and annual AOD climatology maps revealed comparable spatial patterns across datasets, although MODIS Terra consistently reported slightly higher AOD values. These findings provide a robust assessment and reanalysis of satellite AOD products over arid regions, offering critical guidance for aerosol modeling, data assimilation, and climate impact studies. Full article

The climatic variability of near-surface air temperature (NSAT) over the Caspian region (35–60° N; 40–65° E) was analyzed in this study. The analysis was based on a comparison of data from various sources: weather stations, NOAA OISSTv2 satellite-based data, atmospheric reanalyses ECMWF ERA5, NASA MERRA-2, and NCEP/NCAR, and the outputs from 33 Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). CMIP6 models results from the historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) experiments were utilized. Over the period 1940–2023, NSAT exhibited variable changes across the Caspian region. Weather stations in the northwestern part of the region indicated NSAT increases of 0.9 ± 0.2 °C for 1985–2023. In the central-western part of the Caspian region, the increase in average NSAT between 1940–1969 and 1994–2023 was 1.4 °C with a spatial standard deviation of 0.3 °C. In the southern part of the Caspian region, the increase in average NSAT between 1986–2004 and 2005–2023 was 0.8 ± 0.1 °C. Importantly, all 33 CMIP6 models, as well as the ERA5 reanalysis, captured an average NSAT increase of approximately 1.3 ± 0.5 °C for the whole Caspian region between 1940–1969 and 1994–2023. From the ERA5 data, the increase in NSAT was more pronounced in the north (~1.6 °C) than in the central Caspian region, with the most significant warming observed in the mountainous regions of Iran (up to 3.0 °C). Under various CMIP6 SSPs scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), projections indicate an increase in average NSAT across the study region. Comparing the periods 1994–2023 and 2070–2099, the projected NSAT increases are 1.7 ± 0.7 °C, 2.8 ± 0.8 °C, 4.0 ± 0.9 °C, and 5.2 ± 1.2 °C, respectively. For the earlier period of 2024–2053 relative to 1994–2023, the projected NSAT increases are 1.2 ± 0.4 °C, 1.3 ± 0.4 °C, 1.4 ± 0.4 °C, and 1.7 ± 0.5 °C. Notably, the projected increase in NSAT is slower over the Caspian Sea compared to the surrounding land areas. Full article

The primary objective of this study is to assess the techno-economic feasibility of an innovative solar energy generation system with a rainwater collection feature to generate electrical energy and meet irrigation needs in agriculture. The proposed system is designed for an agricultural area (Gonyeli, North Cyprus) with high solar potential and limited rainfall. In the present study, global rainfall datasets are utilized to assess the potential of rainwater harvesting at the selected site. Due to the lack of the measured rainfall data at the selected site, the accuracy of rainfall of nine global reanalysis and analysis datasets (CHIRPS, CFSR, ERA5-LAND, ERA5, ERA5-AG, MERRA2, NOAA CPC CMORPH, NOAA CPC DAILY GLOBAL, and TerraClimate) are evaluated by using data from ground-based observations collected from the Meteorological Department located in Lefkoşa, Northern Cyprus from 1981 to 2023. The results demonstrate that ERA5 outperformed the other datasets, yielding a high R-squared value along with a low mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). Based on the best dataset, the potential of the rainwater harvesting system is estimated by analyzing the monthly and seasonal rainfall patterns utilizing 65 different probability distribution functions for the first time. Three goodness-of-fit tests are utilized to identify the best-fit probability distribution. The results show that the Johnson and Wakeby SB distributions outperform the other models in terms of fitting accuracy. Additionally, the results indicate that the rainwater harvesting system could supply between 31% and 38% of the building’s annual irrigation water demand (204 m³/year) based on average daily rainfall and between 285% and 346% based on maximum daily rainfall. Accordingly, the system might be able to collect a lot more water than is needed for irrigation, possibly producing an excess that could be stored for non-potable uses during periods of heavy rainfall. Furthermore, the techno-economic feasibility of the proposed system is evaluated using RETScreen software (version 9.1, 2023). The results show that household energy needs can be met by the proposed photovoltaic system, and the excess energy is transferred to the grid. Furthermore, the cash flow indicates that the investor can expect a return on investment from the proposed PV system within 2.4 years. Consequently, the findings demonstrate the significance of this system for promoting resource sustainability and climate change adaptation. Besides, the developed system can also help reduce environmental impact and enhance resilience in areas that rely on water and electricity. Full article

Food production systems in Ecuador’s high Andean region are pivotal for food security, rural livelihoods, and agrobiodiversity, yet they are increasingly exposed to climate stress. We assessed four representative crops (tree tomato, quinoa, potato, and maize) across three Andean zones (North, Center, South) in 2015–2022 using monthly NASA POWER (MERRA-2) climate fields. After confirming non-normality, Spearman correlations and multiple linear regressions with leave-one-year-out validation were applied to quantify the influence of maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation on cultivated and harvested area, production, sales, and loss categories. To place monthly signals in a process context, daily extreme-event diagnostics (ETCCDI-style) were also computed: heat days ($\mathrm{TX}90$), ≥5-day dry spells, and the annual maximum consecutive dry days (${\mathrm{CDD}}_{max}$). Models explained a wide range of variability across crops and zones (approx. $R^2\sim 0.55$–0.99), with quinoa showing the most consistent fits (several outcomes $R^2>0.90$). Extremes provide an eye-catching, actionable picture: the Southern zone concentrated dryness hazards, with 1–5 dry spells $\ge 5$ days per year and ${\mathrm{CDD}}_{max}$ up to ∼8 days, while heat-day frequency showed non-significant declines across zones in 2015–2022. Reanalysis frost days were virtually zero—consistent with under-detection of local valley frosts at coarse resolution—so frost risk was interpreted via monthly signals and reported losses. Overall, the results show precipitation-driven vulnerabilities in the South and support quinoa’s role as a resilient option under increasing climate stress, offering concrete guidance for water management and climate-smart planning in mountain agroecosystems. Full article

Air pollution has emerged as one of the most critical public health challenges globally, with an astonishing 96% of the world’s population breathing air below the health standards. This study investigates the amount and distribution of six major air pollutants, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, O₃, SO₂, NO₂, and CO, at numerous air monitoring stations across Iran from 2016 to 2021. The primary objectives were to identify the cities with the highest pollution levels, and to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of air pollution across the country, aiming to provide a comprehensive overview and climatology of air quality. The results indicate that cities such as Zabol and Ahvaz consistently rank among the most polluted, with annual average PM₁₀ concentrations exceeding 190 µg m⁻³ and PM_2.5 reaching alarming levels up to 116.7 µg m⁻³. Furthermore, O₃ and SO₂ amounts were high in Zabol too, classifying it as the most polluted city in Iran. In addition, Tehran exhibits high NO₂, SO₂, and CO concentrations due to high industrial activity and vehicular emissions. Seasonal analysis reveals significant variations in pollutant levels, with PM concentrations peaking during specific months over various parts of the country, particularly driven by local and distant dust events. By integrating MERRA-2 reanalysis pollution data and ground measurements, this research provides a robust framework for understanding pollution dynamics, thereby facilitating more effective policy-making and public health interventions. The results underscore the necessity for immediate action to mitigate the adverse effects of air pollution on public health, particularly in areas prone to industrial activities (i.e., Tehran, Isfahan) and dust events (Zabol, Ahvaz). Full article

Our previous study examined the stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) of air mass and ozone using ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalysis data and observations for 2007–2010. Their analysis applied a lower stratosphere mass budget approach, with the 380 K isentropic surface serving as the upper boundary of the lowermost stratosphere. This study employs a dynamic isentropic surface fitted to the tropical tropopause, providing an update to the results using the static 380 K boundary. Additionally, we improve the numerical scheme for deriving the mass of the lowermost stratosphere. Under this new framework, the air mass upward flux at the isentropic surface in the tropics increases from 19.3 × 10⁹, 19.3 × 10⁹, and 22.0 × 10⁹ kg s⁻¹ in our previous study to 21.9 × 10⁹, 20.9 × 10⁹, and 26.3 × 10⁹ kg s⁻¹ in the present study for ERA5, MERRA2, and observations, respectively. The global ozone fluxes across the fitted isentrope become −347.6, −362.5 and −368.4 Tg yr⁻¹ as compared to −345.7, −359.5 and −335.6 Tg yr⁻¹ at the 380 K level from our previous study for ERA5, MERRA2 and observations, respectively. The corresponding extratropical ozone fluxes are −539.3, −541.3 and −565.5 Tg yr⁻¹ versus previous estimates of −538.1, −542.5 and −527.8 Tg yr⁻¹. The increased role of tropical cirrus clouds near the tropopause is also highlighted under the updated framework in observations. The contribution of cloud heating to tropical air mass flux increases from 2.0% in our previous study to 8.2% in the present analysis, while for ozone, the corresponding contribution increases from 1.8% to 8.1%. We further show that the improved estimate of the change rate of mass in the lowermost stratosphere has an impact on seasonal ozone STE results from chemistry climate models presented in another of our previous studies. These findings provide new insights into the processes governing stratosphere-troposphere exchange. Full article

Understanding the dispersion of volcanic sulphur dioxide (SO₂) plumes is crucial for assessing their environmental and climatic impacts. This study integrates satellite-based and reanalysis datasets to simulate as well as visualise the dispersion patterns of volcanic SO₂ under diverse atmospheric conditions. By incorporating data from the MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2), CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations), and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) datasets, we are able to provide comprehensive insights into the vertical and horizontal trajectories of SO₂ plumes. The methodology involves modelling SO₂ dispersion across various atmospheric pressure surfaces, incorporating wind directions, wind speeds, and vertical column mass densities. This approach allows us to trace the evolution of SO₂ plumes from their source through varying meteorological conditions, capturing detailed vertical distributions and plume paths. Combining these datasets allows for a comprehensive analysis of both natural and human-induced factors affecting SO₂ dispersion. Visual and statistical interpretations in the paper reveal overall SO₂ concentrations, first injection dates, and dissipation patterns detected across altitudes of up to ±20 km in the stratosphere. This work highlights the significance of combining satellite-based and global atmospheric reanalysis datasets to validate and enhance the accuracy of plume dispersion models while having a general agreement that OMI daily data and MERRA-2 reanalysis hourly data are capable of accurately accounting for SO₂ plume dispersion patterns under varying meteorological conditions. Full article

Snow depth is a crucial variable when assessing the hydrological cycle and total water supply. Therefore, thorough and large-scale assessments of the widely used gridded snow depth products are highly important. In previous studies, triple collocation analysis (TCA) was applied as a complementary method to assess various snow depth products. Nevertheless, TCA-derived errors have not yet been validated against ground-based measurements. Specifically, the reliability of the TCA for quantitatively evaluating snow depth datasets remains unknown. In this study, we first generate a long-term snow depth product using our previously proposed remotely sensed retrieval algorithm. Then, we assess the results obtained with this algorithm together with other widely used assimilated (GlobSnow-v3.0) and reanalysis (ERA5-land and MERRA2) products. The reliability of the TCA method is investigated by comparing the errors derived from TCA and from ground-based measurements, as well as their relative performance rankings. Our results reveal that the unRMSE values of snow depth products are highly correlated with the TCA-derived errors, and both provide consistent performance rankings across most areas. However, in northern Xinjiang (NXJ), the TCA-derived errors for MERRA2 are underestimated against the ground-based results. Furthermore, we decomposed the covariance equations of TCA to assess their scientific robustness, and we found that the variance of MERRA2 is low due to the narrow dynamic range and severe underestimation in the snow season. Additionally, any two datasets in the triplet must exhibit correlation, at least displaying the same trend in snow depth. This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of snow depth products and demonstrates the reliability of TCA-based uncertainty analysis, which is particularly useful for applying multiproduct snow depth ensembles in the future. Full article

Following a very cold first half of the Arctic stratosphere winter of 2024–2025, the stratospheric polar vortex weakened from late February. The increase in the polar lower stratosphere temperature led to a decrease in the polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) type I (NAT) volume from ~80 million km³ to zero. The polar vortex weakening and temperature increase continued in early March, when major sudden stratospheric warming occurred. Although the polar cap total column ozone (TCO) significantly increased during this period, an ozone mini-hole formed over Scandinavia and northwestern Russia, with TCO values as low as 220–240 Dobson units, according to satellite observations and ground-based measurements over St. Petersburg and Moscow on 5–6 March 2025. Chemistry-transport model calculations using MERRA2 reanalysis data were performed to investigate the role of chemical ozone depletion and dynamical processes in the low TCO values in early March. Model experiments show that dynamical processes played a predominant role in the formation of low TCO values, but the role of chemical processes was not negligible. Associated with the TCO anomaly, the difference relative to the standard ozone level in the UV indices over Moscow, St. Petersburg and Helsinki reached up to 60–100%. Full article

The Elfeija Dune Field (EDF) is a continental aeolian system in an arid region of southeastern Morocco. Studying this system is critical for understanding the effects of mounting climatic and anthropogenic pressures. This study provides a comprehensive characterization of the EDF’s morphology, sedimentology, aeolian dynamics, genesis, and recent evolution. A multi-scale, multidisciplinary approach was adopted, integrating field observations, sedimentological analyses, MERRA-2 reanalysis wind data, cartographic analysis, digital terrain modeling, and morphometric measurements. The results reveal an active 30 km² dune field, elongated WSW-ENE, which is divisible into three morphodynamic zones with a high dune density (80–90 dunes/km²). The wind regime is predominantly from the W to WSW, driving a net ENE sand transport and creating conditions conducive to barchan formation (RDP/DP > 0.78). Sediments are quartz dominated, with significant calcite and various clay minerals (illite, kaolinite, and smectite). Dune sands are primarily fine- to medium-grained and well sorted, in contrast to the more poorly sorted interdune deposits. The landscape is dominated by barchans (mean height H = 2.5 m; mean length L = 50 m) and their coalescent forms, indicating sustained aeolian activity. The potential sand flux was estimated at 1.7 kg/m/s, with a dune collision probability of 32%. The field’s genesis is hypothesized to be controlled by a topographically induced Venturi effect, with an initiation approximately 1000 years ago, potentially linked to the Medieval Climatic Optimum. Significant anthropogenic impacts from expanding irrigated agriculture are observed at the dune field margins. By providing a detailed characterization of the EDF and its sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic forcings, this study establishes a critical baseline for the sustainable management of arid environments. Full article

Surface solar radiation (SSR) is a critical component of the Earth’s energy balance and plays a pivotal role in climate modelling, hydrological processes, and solar energy planning. In data-scarce regions like India, where dense ground-based radiation networks are limited, reanalysis and satellite-derived SSR datasets are often utilized to fill observational gaps. However, these datasets are subject to systematic biases, particularly under diverse sky and seasonal conditions. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of four widely used SSR datasets: ERA5, IMDAA, MERRA2, and CERES, against high-quality in situ observations from 27 India Meteorological Department (IMD) stations, for the period 1985–2020. The assessment incorporates multi-scale temporal analysis (daily/monthly), spatial validation, and sky-condition stratification via the clearness index (K_t). The results indicate that CERES exhibits the best overall performance with the lowest RMSE (16.30 W/m²), minimal bias (–2.5%), and strong correlation (r = 0.97; p = 0.01), particularly under partly cloudy conditions. ERA5, with a finer spatial resolution, also performs robustly (RMSE = 20.80 W/m²; MBE = –0.8%; r = 0.94; p = 0.01), showing consistent agreement with observed seasonal cycles, though slightly underestimating SSR during monsoonal cloud cover. MERRA2 shows moderate overestimation (+4.4%) with region-specific bias variability, while IMDAA demonstrates persistent overestimation (+10.2%) across all conditions, highlighting limited sensitivity to atmospheric transparency. Importantly, this study reconciles apparent contradictions between monthly and sky condition-based bias analyses, attributing them to aggregation differences. While reanalysis datasets overestimate SSR during the monsoon on average, they tend to underestimate it under heavily overcast conditions. These insights are critical for guiding the selection and application of SSR datasets in solar energy modelling, SPV system design, and climate diagnostics across India’s heterogeneous atmospheric regimes. Full article

Meteorological reanalyses are one of the means to assess the solar irradiance reaching the ground. This paper deals with estimates of the hourly means of irradiance in clear-sky conditions provided by the ERA5, JRA-3Q, and MERRA-2 reanalyses. They are compared to coincident ground-based measurements from 28 BSRN stations located worldwide, selected by a new algorithm for detecting cloud-free instants. Although ERA5 most often underestimates measurements, it is quite reliable over time because it captures the temporal variability of measurements well and provides a constant level of uncertainty. JRA-3Q offers a complex pattern with negative and positive biases depending on station and season. It captures well the temporal variability but, as a whole, is not reliable over time. None of the three reanalyses is reliable in space. Because of its use of the mean solar time instead of the true solar time, MERRA-2 suffers many drawbacks over intraday scales. Its statistical indicators exhibit marked patterns depending on the season and station. Its assimilation of aerosol properties offers advantages when compared to the climatologies used in ERA5 and JRA-3Q. This work exposes the strengths and weaknesses of each reanalysis in clear-sky conditions and formulates suggestions to providers for further improvements. Full article