Search Results (383)

Understanding the alignment between fisher behavior and habitat dynamics is essential for data-driven fisheries management. This study analyzed high-resolution Automatic Identification System (AIS) and Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) data, integrated with logbooks from 10 stick-held dipnet vessels targeting Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) in the North Pacific high seas. We developed an optimized CNN-LSTM-SE model to classify vessel trajectories into eight operational states, achieving 91% accuracy. This model generated a high-confidence presence dataset, addressing spatiotemporal data limitations in pelagic species research. A dynamic Ensemble Species Distribution Model (ESDM) mapped habitat suitability index (HSI) for the primary fishing seasons (June–September) of 2023–2024, revealing seasonal northward migrations and an interannual eastward shift in core habitats, primarily driven by sea surface temperature (SST: 6.4–19.1 °C), chlorophyll-a (CHL: 0.2–2.0 mg/m³), mixed layer depth (MLD: 14–30 m), and dissolved oxygen (DO: 220–290 mmol/m³). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) sensitivity analysis identified an HSI threshold of ≥0.4 for suitable habitats, where 98.4% of fishing effort was concentrated. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis demonstrated that vessels in high-quality habitats (HSI ≥ 0.8) exhibited significantly longer fishing bout durations and lower cessation probabilities (log-rank test, χ² = 20.9, p < 0.001), providing empirical evidence for the Marginal Value Theorem and Optimal Foraging Theory. Although HSI showed a weak direct correlation with catch rates (R² = 0.007), it effectively delineated high-potential fishing grounds (>90% of high-catch days > 30 tonnes in HSI ≥ 0.6). By demonstrating that fishers’ spatial decisions appear to reflect environmental gradients, suggesting that fishing effort may indirectly act as an ecological indicator, this integrated framework bridges fisher behavior with ecological theory, supporting dynamic ocean management in climate-variable fisheries. Full article

Understanding global precipitation trends is critical for managing water resources, anticipating extreme events, and assessing the impacts of climate change. This study analyzes spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation from 1998 to 2024 using NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for (IMERG) Version 7, which merges satellite observations with rain-gauge data at 0.1° resolution. A total of 324 monthly datasets were aggregated into annual and seasonal composites to evaluate annual and seasonal trends in global precipitation. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was applied at the pixel scale to detect statistically significant monotonic trends, and Sen’s slope estimator method was used to quantify the magnitude of change in mean annual and seasonal global precipitation. Results reveal robust and geographically consistent patterns: significant wetting trends are evident in high-latitude regions, with the Arctic and Southern Oceans showing the strongest increases across multiple seasons, including +0.04 mm/day in December–January–February for the Arctic Ocean and +0.04 mm/day in June–July–August for the Southern Ocean. Northern China also demonstrates persistent increases, aligned with recent intensification of extreme late-season precipitation. In contrast, significant drying trends are detected in the tropical East Pacific (up to −0.02 mm/day), northern South America, and some areas in central-southern Africa, highlighting regions at risk of sustained hydroclimatic stress. The North Atlantic south of Greenland emerges as a summer drying hotspot, consistent with Greenland Ice Sheet melt enhancing stratification and reducing precipitation. Collectively, the findings underscore a dual pattern of wetting at high latitudes and drying in tropical belts, emphasizing the role of polar amplification, ocean–atmosphere interactions, and climate variability in shaping Earth’s precipitation dynamics. Full article

The objective of this study is to determine how easterly jets and associated convections interact over tropical North Africa during the Jul–Sep season, using reanalysis and satellite datasets for 1990–2024. Four indices are formed to describe mid- and upper-level zonal winds, and moist convection over the Sahel and India. Time-space regression identifies the large-scale features modulating the easterly jets. Cumulative departures are analyzed and ranked to form composites in east wind/convective phases and weak wind/subsident phases. The upper-level tropical easterly jet accelerates over the Arabian Sea during and after Pacific La Nina and the cool-west Indian Ocean dipole, and shows four year cycling aligned with thermocline oscillations. The mid-level Africa easterly jet strengthens during Atlantic Nino conditions that enhance the Sahel’s convection in the Jul–Sep season. Both jets accelerate when convection spreads west of India, whereas brief spells of decoupling suppress North African crop yields. The case of 15–20 August 2018 is analyzed, when a surge of Indian monsoon convection and tropical easterly jet penetrated the Sahel, leading to widespread uplift and rainfall. Full article

Research on Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in Ecuador has focused on regional studies. However, it lacks a thorough and general examination of their relationship with the nation’s diverse orography and large-scale phenomena. This study conducts a climatological analysis of MCS occurrence throughout Ecuador’s natural regions. We perform this study using Sen’s Slope and the Mann–Kendall test. Teleconnections from the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are studied through wavelet decomposition between time series and Pacific and Atlantic oceanic indices. The main factors that control MCS formation depend on the region. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) at the large scale affects the entire territory. In western Ecuador, MCS formation is mostly related to the El Niño current and the Chocó Low-Level Jet (CLLJ). The Orinoco Low-Level Jet (OLLJ) and evapotranspiration and nocturnal convection display the largest roles in the east. A progressive intensification of activity from Highlands-North in SON is detected (0.143 MCSs per year). MCSs contribute 26% of total precipitation on average, with regional variations from Coast-South (16.41%) to Amazon-North (44.13%). The research confirms existing knowledge about El Niño’s strong relationship (ρ = 0.7) with MCS occurrence in coastal areas while uncovering new complex patterns. The Trans-Nino Index (TNI) functions as a critical two-sided modulator that conventional analysis methods fail to detect. It produces null correlations over conventional time series of MCS occurrence yet emerges as a primary driver of low-frequency variability in the proposed six natural zones of Ecuador. Wavelet decomposition reveals contrasting TNI responses: Amazon-North shows positive correlation (0.73) while Amazon-South exhibits negative correlation (−0.70) at low frequencies. This affects Walker circulations dynamics over the Pacific Ocean. This research establishes fundamental knowledge about MCSs in Ecuador. It builds on a database with strong methodology as a backbone. The research provides essential information about the factors leading to convection in the country. This will help improve seasonal forecast accuracy and risk management effectiveness. Full article

Global climate change poses a significant management challenge for vital transboundary resources like the Pacific saury (Cololabis saira). To address this, we developed an innovative framework that uses high-resolution Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and deep learning to define species distribution, which then informs a robust Ensemble Species Distribution Model (ESDM). The model (TSS > 0.89, AUC > 0.97) identifies sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (CHL) as key habitat drivers. Projections under future climate scenarios reveal two critical threats: (1) a continuous northeastward migration of the habitat’s centroid, exceeding 400 km by 2100 under a high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, and (2) a drastic contraction of highly suitable habitat (suitability > 0.8), shrinking by up to 94% under the high-emission SSP3-7.0 scenario. By directly linking key oceanographic features to these climate-driven risks, this study delivers an essential scientific decision-support tool for management bodies like the North Pacific Fisheries Commission (NPFC) to develop climate-adaptive strategies. Full article

The accurate assessment and management of Blue Mackerel (Scomber australasicus) and Chub Mackerel (Scomber japonicus) resources in the high seas of the Northwest Pacific are constrained by the persistent issue of data misreporting in catch records, which arises from their high morphological similarity. This study integrates fishery logbooks and field sampling data from Chinese purse seine fleets (2014–2023), along with key oceanographic factors—six of which were finally selected after correlation analysis. We introduce, for the first time, a Zero-One Inflated Beta Model (ZOIBM) to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of the relative abundance of these two mackerel species. Furthermore, a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was employed to reveal the environmental mechanisms driving their niche differentiation. The results show that the ZOIBM demonstrates excellent performance (R² = 0.63, RMSE = 0.305), effectively quantifying the proportional composition of the two species in mixed catches. Spatially, high-abundance areas of Blue Mackerel were concentrated within 35–44° N, 145–160° E, with its proportion decreasing at higher latitudes. In contrast, Chub Mackerel exhibited an opposite latitudinal pattern, with its high-abundance areas covering a broader latitudinal range (35–47.5° N). The analysis of environmental drivers indicated that SST was the most critical factor for differentiation, while Chla and VO further amplified the divergence in resource utilization strategies between the species. From 2014 to 2023, the distribution centroids of both mackerel species showed significant northward and eastward shifts, and their spatial overlap has been continuously increasing. This research provides a methodological reference for the fine-scale assessment of co-occurring fish resources and offers a scientific basis for the sustainable management of the North Pacific mackerel fishery. Full article

The East China Sea Shelf Basin (ECSSB) and its adjacent areas, as key regions of the ocean–continent transition zone, have been affected by multiple complex plate collisions, subduction, and back-arc tension since the Mesozoic Era. The structural deformation provides a large amount of geological information on the ocean–continent transition zone. There are significant spatiotemporal differences in the structural deformation within the basin. However, the research remains insufficient and understanding is inconsistent, especially regarding the systematic study of the differences and dynamic mechanisms of north–south structural deformation, which is relatively lacking. This study is based on two-dimensional multi-channel deep reflection seismic profiles spanning the southern and northern basin. Through an integrated re-analysis of gravity, magnetic, and OBS data, the deformation characteristics and processes of the Meso-Cenozoic structures in the basin are analyzed. The differences in structural deformation between the southern and northern basin are summarized, and the controlling effects of deep crust–mantle activity and the influencing factors of shallow structural deformation are explored. Based on deep reflection seismic profiles, the structural deformation characteristics of the Yushan–Kume fault are revealed for the first time, and it is proposed that NW faults, represented by the Yushan–Kume fault, have important tuning effects on the north–south structural differential deformation in the ECSSB. The thermal subsidence of the lithosphere is the direct cause of the development of the Mesozoic ECSSB, while the subduction of the Paleo-Pacific plate is one of the important factors contributing to it. The combined effect of the two has led to significant differences between the northern and southern Mesozoic basin. During the Cenozoic Era, the alternating subduction and changes in the direction of subduction of the Pacific Plate led to spatiotemporal differences in structural deformation within the ECSSB. The development of NW faults was a key factor in the differences in structural deformation between the northern and southern basin. The study of structural deformation differences in the ECSSB not only deepens our understanding of the tectonic evolution in the East Asian continental margin region, but also has important significance for the exploration and evaluation of deep hydrocarbon resources in the ECSSB. Full article

Deep-sea mining has garnered significant global attention, and accurate prediction of ocean currents plays a critical role in optimizing the design of sediment plume monitoring networks associated with mining activities. Using near-seabed mooring data from the Western Pacific M2 block (Beijing Pioneer polymetallic nodule Exploration Area, BPEA), this study trained four machine learning models—LSTM, XGBoost, ARIMA, and SVR—on current velocity to generate 96 h forecasts. Key findings include the following: LSTM and ARIMA models outperformed XGBoost and SVR in near-seabed current prediction. 1 h ahead forecasts substantially improved accuracy over rolling predictions (an iterative process where predicted values are treated as observed values for subsequent prediction steps), reducing zonal current (east–west component) RMSE from 2.395 cm/s to 1.120 cm/s and meridional current (north–south component) RMSE from 2.024 cm/s to 1.224 cm/s. For practical deployment, 3 h ahead forecasts achieved a zonal current RMSE of 1.412 cm/s. Full article

The Haiyang-2B (HY-2B) satellite, launched on 25 October 2018, carries both active and passive microwave sensors, including a scanning microwave Radiometer (SMR), to deliver high-precision, all-weather global observations. Sea surface temperature (SST) is among its key products. We evaluated the HY-2B SMR Level-4A (L4A) SST (25 km resolution) over the North Pacific (0–60°N, 120°E–100°W) for the period 1 October 2023 to 31 March 2025 using the extended triple collocation (ETC) and dual-pairing methods. These comparisons were made against the Remote Sensing System (RSS) microwave and infrared (MWIR) fused SST product and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in situ SST Quality Monitor (iQuam) observations. Relative to iQuam, HY-2B SST has a mean bias of –0.002 °C and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.279 °C. Compared to the MWIR product, the mean bias is 0.009 °C with an RMSE of 0.270 °C, indicating high accuracy. ETC yields an equivalent standard deviation (ESD) of 0.163 °C for HY-2B, compared to 0.157 °C for iQuam and 0.196 °C for MWIR. Platform-specific ESDs are lowest for drifters (0.124 °C) and tropical moored buoys (0.088 °C) and highest for ship and coastal moored buoys (both 0.238 °C). Both the HY-2B and MWIR products exhibit increasing ESD and RMSE toward higher latitudes, primarily driven by stronger winds, higher columnar water vapor, and elevated cloud liquid water. Overall, HY-2B SST performs reliably under most conditions, but incurs larger errors under extreme environments. This analysis provides a robust basis for its application and future refinement. Full article

The Pacific saury (Cololabis saira), widely distributed in the North Pacific Ocean, is a significant pelagic fishery species in China and has been designated as a priority management species by the North Pacific Fisheries Commission (NPFC). This study examined the trace element characteristics of Pacific saury otoliths and the migration patterns of this species. Based on samples collected from the high seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean, we estimated their daily age, measured the trace element contents of the otoliths at various life history stages, and analyzed the Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca, Mg/Ca, and Na/Ca values in the otoliths and their relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) changes. The main findings were as follows: (1) Cluster analysis showed significant differences (p < 0.05) in the Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca, Mg/Ca, and Na/Ca values in the core regions of otoliths among the clusters. (2) An analysis of the elemental characteristics across life history stages showed significant differences (p < 0.05) in the Sr/Ca values prior to the juvenile stage (31~90 d) and following the young stage (91~180 d). Significant variations (p < 0.05) in the Ba/Ca values during the juvenile and immature stages imply vertical migration behavior. Additionally, the Mg/Ca and Na/Ca values in adult stages showed significant differences (p < 0.05) to those in early life history stages. (3) GAM fitting and cross-correlation function tests demonstrated a statistically significant (p < 0.05) nonlinear lagged relationship between the otolith Sr/Ca values and SST. Full article

Due to global warming, extreme temperature events have become increasingly prevalent, posing significant threats to both socioeconomic development and human safety. While previous studies have extensively examined the influence of individual climatic circulation systems on extreme temperature, the combined effects of multiple concurrent circulation patterns remain poorly understood. Using daily temperature data from 29 meteorological stations in Chongqing (1960–2019), this study employs linear trend analysis, correlation analysis, and random forest (RF) models to analyze spatiotemporal variations in the intensity and frequency of extreme temperature. We selected 21 climate indicators from three categories—atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature (SST), and sea-level pressure (SLP)—to identify the primary drivers of extreme temperatures and quantify their respective contributions. The key findings are as follows: (1) All extreme intensity indices exhibited an increasing trend, with the TXx (annual maximum daily maximum temperature) showing the higher trend (0.03 °C/year). The northeastern region experienced the most pronounced increases. (2) Frequency indices also displayed an upward trend. This was particularly evident for the TD35 (number of days with maximum temperature ≥35 °C), which increased at an average rate of 0.16 days/year, most notably in the northeast. (3) The Western Pacific Subtropical High Ridge Position Index (GX) and Asia Polar Vortex Area Index (APV) were the dominant climate factors driving intensity indices, with cumulative contributions of 26.0% to 33.4%, while the Western Pacific Warm Pool Strength Index (WPWPS), Asia Polar Vortex Area Index (APV), North Atlantic Subtropical High Intensity Index (NASH), and Indian Ocean Warm Pool Strength Index (IOWP) were the dominant climate factors influencing frequency indices, with cumulative contributions of 46.4 to 49.5%. The explanatory power of these indices varies spatially across stations, and the RF model effectively identifies key circulation factors at each station. In the future, more attention should be paid to urban planning adaptations, particularly green infrastructure and land use optimization, along with targeted heat mitigation strategies, such as early warning systems and public health interventions, to strengthen urban resilience against escalating extreme temperatures. Full article

The eastern North Pacific Ocean coastline (from the Salish Sea to the western Aleutian Islands) is highly glaciated with relic sediment deposits scattered throughout a highly contoured and variable bathymetry. Oceanographic conditions feature strong currents and tidal exchange. Sand wave fields are prominent features within these glaciated shorelines and provide critical habitat to sand lance (Ammodytes spp.). Despite an awareness of the importance of these benthic habitats, attributes related to their structure and characteristics remain undocumented. We explored the micro-bathymetric morphology of a subtidal sand wave field known to be a consistent habitat for sand lance. We calculated geomorphic attributes of the bedform habitat, analyzed sediment composition, and measured oceanographic properties of the associated water column. This feature has a streamlined teardrop form, tapered in the direction of the predominant tidal current. Consistent flow paths along the long axis contribute to well-defined and maintained bedform morphology and margin. Distinct patterns in amplitude and period of sand waves were documented. Strong tidal exchange has resulted in well-sorted medium-to-coarse-grained sediments with coarser sediments, including gravel and cobble, within wave troughs. Extensive mixing related to tidal currents results in a highly oxygenated water column, even to depths of 80 m. Our analysis provides unique insights into the physical characteristics that define high-quality habitat for these fish. Further work is needed to identify, enumerate, and map the presence and relative quality of these benthic habitats and to characterize the oceanographic properties that maintain these benthic habitats over time. Full article

Change in sea level (SL) is an important indicator of global warming, since it reflects alterations in several components of the climate system at once. The main factors behind this phenomenon are the melting of glaciers and thermal expansion of ocean water, with the latter contributing about 40% to the overall rise in SL. Rising SL indirectly indicates an increase in ocean heat content and, consequently, its surface temperature. Previous studies have found that tropical sea surface temperature (SST) is critical to regulating the Earth’s climate and weather patterns in high and mid-latitudes. For this reason, SST and SL in the tropics can be considered as precursors of both global climate change and the emergence of climate anomalies in extratropical latitudes. Although SST has been used in this capacity in a number of studies, similar research regarding SL had not been conducted until recently. In this paper, we examine the links between SL in the tropical North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans and surface air temperature (SAT) at mid- and high latitudes, with the aim of assessing the potential of SL as a predictor in forecasting SAT anomalies. To identify similarities between the variability of tropical SL and SST and that of SAT in high- and mid-latitude regions, as well as to estimate possible time lags, we applied factor analysis, clustering, cross-correlation and cross-spectral analyses. The results reveal a structural similarity in the internal variability of tropical SL and extratropical SAT, along with a significant lagged relationship between them, with a time lag of several years. Full article

Under global warming, persistent extreme heat events (PHEs) in China have increased significantly in both frequency and intensity, posing severe threats to agriculture and socioeconomic development. Combining observational analysis (1961–2019) and numerical simulations, this study investigates the distinct impacts of Northwest Pacific (NWP) and North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on PHEs over China. Key findings include the following: (1) PHEs exhibit heterogeneous spatial distribution, with the Yangtze-Huai River Valley as the hotspot showing the highest frequency and intensity. A regime shift occurred post-2000, marked by a threefold increase in extreme indices (+3σ to +4σ). (2) Observational analyses reveal significant but independent correlations between PHEs and SST anomalies in the tropical NWP and mid-high latitude NA. (3) Numerical experiments demonstrate that NWP warming triggers a meridional dipole response (warming in southern China vs. cooling in the north) via the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern, characterized by an eastward-retreated and southward-shifted sub-tropical high (WPSH) coupled with an intensified South Asian High (SAH). In contrast, NA warming induces uniform warming across eastern China through a Eurasian Rossby wave train that modulates the WPSH northward. (4) Thermodynamically, NWP forcing dominates via asymmetric vertical motion and advection processes, while NA forcing primarily enhances large-scale subsidence and shortwave radiation. This study elucidates region-specific oceanic drivers of extreme heat, advancing mechanistic understanding for improved heatwave predictability. Full article

By utilizing daily precipitation data from 400 meteorological stations in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) of China, atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data, this study investigates the climatological characteristics, leading modes, and relationships with atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) of summer extreme precipitation in the YRB from 1981 to 2020 through the extreme precipitation metrics and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The results indicate that both the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation exhibit an eastward and southward increasing pattern in terms of climate state, with regions of higher precipitation showing greater interannual variability. When precipitation in the YRB exhibits a spatially coherent enhancement pattern, high latitudes exhibits an Eurasian teleconnection wave train that facilitates the southward movement of cold air. Concurrently, the northward extension of the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) enhances moisture transport from low latitudes to the YRB, against the backdrop of a transitioning SST pattern from El Niño to La Niña. When precipitation in the YRB shows a “south-increase, north-decrease” dipole pattern, the southward-shifted Ural high and westward-extended WPSH converge cold air and moist in the southern YRB region, with no dominant SST drivers identified. Full article