Search Results (210)

For arid and semi-arid regions like Xinjiang, analyzing the spatiotemporal patterns of September precipitation and their atmospheric circulation teleconnections is crucial for ecosystem preservation. This research examined how the August Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) influenced the September precipitation patterns in northern Xinjiang. The results show that the thermal anomalies resulting from the August APO exhibited persistence into September, triggering atmospheric circulation anomalies that ultimately affected the precipitation patterns in northern Xinjiang, with a notable negative correlation. The positive (negative) August APO phase corresponded to reduced (increased) mid-tropospheric geopotential heights over Asia and the Arabian Sea, significantly enhancing anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation patterns in these regions. These circulation patterns induced anomalous northerlies (southerlies) over northern Xinjiang and the region from eastern Iran to the Persian Gulf, thereby reducing (increasing) the moisture transport from the Arabian Sea. Furthermore, the anomalous divergence (convergence) of cold/warm air masses and subsidence (ascent) motions exacerbated (enhanced) these effects, ultimately suppressing (enhancing) the September precipitation in northern Xinjiang. Full article

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is highly related to summer monsoon activities, tropical cyclones, flood disasters, and other extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere. The propagation of BSISO has considerable complexity. The apparent heat source (Q₁) is the heat generated by radiation, heat conduction, and latent heat release, and their anomalies significantly affect the atmospheric circulation and relevant precipitation. We selected 27 significant events from 30- to 60-day Q₁ anomalies in the northeast Arabian Sea (12–22° N, 66–76° E). K-means cluster analysis was used to further divide significant events into 19 Type-I events and 8 Type-II events. In the equatorial region, the Type-I events have continuous eastward propagation, while the Type-II events have no significant eastward propagation features before −10 days. In East Asia, the northward propagation of the Type-I events is significant and continuous, while there is no northward propagation of the Type-II events. The moisture analyses show that the horizontal advection term plays the most important role in the propagation of convection in most regions. The evaporation term of the Type-I events also plays a significant role in East Asia, and may be related to the difference between the two types of events there. Full article

This study investigates anomalous precipitation patterns in the Taihu Basin, located in the Yangtze River Delta of eastern China, using high-resolution daily data from 1960 to 2019. Leveraging a deep learning autoencoder and self-organizing map, three spatially distinct types are identified—north type (72%), south type (19.7%), and center type (8.3%). The north type exhibits a pronounced upward trend (+0.11 days/year, p < 0.05), indicating intensifying extreme rainfall under climate warming, while the south type displays a bimodal temporal structure, peaking in early summer and autumn. Composite analyses reveal that these patterns are closely associated with the westward extension of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH), meridional shifts of the East Asian Westerly Jet (EAJ), low-level moisture convergence, and SST–OLR anomalies. For instance, north-type events often coincide with strong anticyclonic anomalies and enhanced moisture transport from the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, forming favorable convergence zones over the basin. For flood management in the Taihu Basin, the identified spatial patterns, particularly the bimodal south type, have clear implications. Their strong link to specific circulation features enables certain flood-prone scenarios to be anticipated 1–2 seasons in advance, supporting proactive measures such as reservoir scheduling. Overall, this classification framework deepens the understanding of atmospheric patterns associated with flood risk and provides practical guidance for storm design and adaptive flood risk management under a changing climate. Full article

An objective classification scheme by Jenkinson and Collison is applied to the period 1961–2010 to statistically model the temperatures over Serbia. The originally identified 26 weather types (WTs) are reorganised into 10 basic types. This discussion includes the synoptic characteristics, frequency and trends of the 10 WTs as well as the trends of seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Serbia. In this area, the anticyclonic weather type is predominant throughout the year, and its negative trend is significant in summer and autumn. The relationship between air temperature and atmospheric circulation types is investigated by analysing the mean and anomalies of mean, maximum and minimum temperatures for each individual atmospheric circulation type and by stepwise regression. The multiple regression models developed for six stations using circulation WTs as predictors showed the best performance in modelling winter mean temperatures for Zlatibor and Loznica compared to the other stations, while the models for other seasons proved to be inadequate. Full article

Using multiple reanalysis datasets, this study investigates the decadal variability in the relationship between Northeast Pacific Sea surface temperature (SST) and Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO), with a focus on the role of atmospheric dynamics in mediating this connection. A significant decadal shift is identified around the year 2000, characterized by a weakening of the previously strong negative correlation between January–February SST anomalies and February–March ASO. Prior to 2000 (1980–2000), warm SST in the northeastern Pacific suppressed upward planetary wave propagation, resulting in decreased stratospheric wave activity and a weakened Brewer–Dobson circulation. The weakened BD circulation reduced poleward transport of tropical ozone and heat, yielding a colder, ozone-poor polar vortex. The strong relationship enabled skillful seasonal predictability of ASO using SST precursors in a linear regression model. However, post-2000 (2001–2022), the weakened planetary wave response to SST anomalies resulted in a breakdown of this relationship, yielding non-significant predictive skill. The findings highlight the non-stationary nature of ocean-stratosphere coupling and underscore the importance of accounting for such decadal shifts in climate models to improve projections of Arctic ozone recovery and its surface climate impacts. Full article

In the summer of 2022, central and eastern China experienced prolonged extreme high temperatures and severe drought, leading to significant economic losses. To gain a more profound understanding of this drought event and furnish a reference for forecasting similar events in the future, this study examines the circulation anomalies associated with the drought. Employing a diagnostic method focused on temperature and moisture anomalies, this study introduces a novel approach to quantify and compare the relative significance of moisture transport and warm air dynamics in contributing to the drought. This study examines the atmospheric circulation anomalies linked to the drought event and compares the relative contributions of water vapor transport and warm air activity in causing the drought, using two parameters defined in the paper. The results show the following: (1) The West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) was more intense than usual and extended westward, consistently controlling the Yangtze River Basin. Simultaneously, the polar vortex area was smaller and weaker, the South Asian High area was larger and stronger, and it shifted eastward. These factors collectively led to weakened water vapor transport conditions and prevailing subsiding air motions in the Yangtze River Basin, causing frequent high temperatures. (2) By defining I_q and I_t to represent the contributions of moisture and temperature to precipitation, we found that the drought event in the Yangtze River Basin was driven by both reduced moisture supplies in the lower troposphere and higher-than-normal temperatures, with temperature playing a dominant role. Full article

This study examines the roles of air mass advection and solar radiation in shaping daily air temperature anomalies in Warsaw, Poland, from 2008 to 2023. It integrates solar radiation data, HYSPLIT back-trajectories, air temperature measurements, and machine learning methods, which are key atmospheric factors contributing to temperature anomalies in different seasons. Radiation dominates during warm seasons, while advection-related geographic factors are more influential during winter. Increased solar radiation is observed across all seasons during high-positive temperature anomalies (exceeding two standard deviations). In contrast, cold anomalies in summer are accompanied by strong negative solar radiation anomalies (−136.3 W/m²), while winter cold events may still coincide with positive radiation anomalies (25.7 W/m²). Very slow circulation over Central Europe, which occurs twice as often in summer as in winter, leads to positive temperature (1.3 °C) and negative radiation (−2.1 W/m²) anomalies in summer and to negative temperature (−1.9 °C) anomalies and slightly positive radiation (0.3 W/m²) anomalies in winter. The seasonal variability in the spatial origin of air masses reflects shifts in synoptic-scale circulation patterns. These findings highlight the importance of considering the combined influence of radiative and advective processes in driving temperature extremes and their seasonal dynamics in mid-latitude climates. Full article

Paleoclimate records have long documented the existence of multicentury hydroclimate anomalies in the Altiplano of South America. However, the causes and mechanisms of these extended events are still unknown. Here, we present a climate modeling experiment that explores the oceanic drivers and atmospheric mechanisms conducive to long-term precipitation variability in the southern Altiplano (18–25° S; 70–65 W; >3500 masl). We performed a series of 100-year-long idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, configured to repeat annually the oceanic and atmospheric forcing leading to the exceptionally humid austral summers of 1983/1984 and 2011/2012. The aim of these cyclical experiments was to evaluate if these specific conditions can sustain a century-long pluvial event in the Altiplano. Unlike the annual forcing, long-term negative precipitation trends are observed in the simulations, suggesting that the drivers of 1983/1984 and 2011/2012 wet summers are unable to generate a century-scale pluvial event. Our results show that an intensification of the anticyclonic circulation along with cold surface air anomalies in the southwestern Atlantic progressively reinforce the lower and upper troposphere features that prevent moisture transport towards the Altiplano. Prolonged drying is also observed under persistent La Niña conditions, which contradicts the well-known relationship between precipitation and ENSO at interannual timescales. Contrasting the hydroclimate responses between the Altiplano and the tropical Andes result from a sustained northward migration of the Atlantic trade winds, providing a useful analog for explaining the divergences in the Holocene records. This experiment suggests that the drivers of century-scale hydroclimate events in the Altiplano were more diverse than previously thought and shows how climate modeling can be used to test paleoclimate hypotheses, emphasizing the necessity of combining proxy data and numerical models to improve our understanding of past climates. Full article

The Northwestern Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH), usually enhanced by the basin-scale warming of the Indian Ocean (IOBW), plays a major role in controlling the summertime East Asian climate. To assess factors contributing to the decadal modulation of the NPSH and IOBW relationship in recent years, we conducted sensitivity experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model. We particularly focused on decadal-scale differences between the periods of 1982–2001 and 2002–2021, with the contribution of the climatological sea surface temperature (SST) as the background, in combination with the tropical Pacific SST anomaly in relation to the rapid or slow decay of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results indicate that the IOBW-related SST anomalies in the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans—which, overall, represent the well-known characteristics of the so-called Indo-western Pacific Ocean Capacitor effects—cooperatively enhanced the NPSH in the earlier period (1982–2001). On the other hand, the suppressed and westward-shifted SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the resultant changes in the diabatic heating of cumulus convection suppressed the NPSH enhancement in recent years (2002–2021). These results indicate that the modulation in the NPSH responses linked to the IOBW is primarily due to the so-called ENSO diversity rather than climatology. Full article

Using multi-source precipitation datasets including NASA GPM (IMERG), GPCP, ECMWF ERA5, and station precipitation data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), along with ERA5 reanalysis fields for atmospheric circulation analysis, this study investigates the extreme precipitation events during the “Dragon-Boat Precipitation” period from 20 May to 21 June over South China in 2022 using the synoptic diagnostic method. The results indicate that the total precipitation during this period significantly exceeded the climatological average, with multiple large-scale extreme rainfall events characterized by high intensity, extensive coverage, and prolonged duration. The spatial distribution of precipitation exhibited a north-more-south-less pattern, with the maximum rainfall center located in the Nanling Mountains, particularly in the Shaoguan–Qingyuan–Heyuan region of Guangdong Province, where peak precipitation exceeded 1100 mm, and the mean precipitation was approximately 1.7 times the climatology from the GPM data. The average daily precipitation throughout the period was 17.5 mm/day, which was 6 mm/day higher than the climatological mean, while the heaviest rainfall on 13 June reached 39 mm/day above the average, exceeding two standard deviations. The extreme precipitation during the “Dragon-Boat Precipitation” period in 2022 was associated with an anomalous deep East Asian trough, an intensified South Asian High, a stronger-than-usual Western Pacific Subtropical High, an enhanced South Asian monsoon and South China Sea monsoon, and the dominance of a strong Southwesterly Low-Level Jet (SLLJ) over South China. Two major moisture transport pathways were established: one from the Bay of Bengal to South China and another from the South China Sea, with the latter contributing a little higher amount of water vapor transport than the former. The widespread extreme precipitation on 13 June 2022 was triggered by the anomalous atmospheric circulation conditions. In the upper levels, South China was located at the northwestern periphery of the slightly stronger-than-normal Western Pacific Subtropical High, intersecting with the base of a deep trough associated with an anomalous intense Northeast China Cold Vortex (NCCV). At lower levels, the region was positioned along a shear line formed by anomalous southwesterly and northerly winds, where exceptionally strong southwesterly moisture transport, significant moisture convergence, and intense vertical updraft led to the widespread extreme rainfall event on that day. Full article

Compound dry–hot events refer to climate phenomena where drought and high temperatures occur simultaneously. Compared to single extreme events, compound dry–hot events may have greater adverse impacts. This study uses high-spatial-resolution observational data (i.e., temperature, precipitation, and climate water balance) to cluster and identify spring compound dry–hot events in the Pearl River Basin over the past nearly 50 years. It further investigates the associated large-scale atmospheric circulation conditions during compound dry–hot events. Using three clustering methods and twenty-six evaluation criteria, six events are identified. These events primarily exhibit negative anomalies in precipitation and climate water balance and positive anomalies in temperature. The spatial distribution results show that moisture deficits during compound events are mainly concentrated in the eastern Pearl River Basin, especially in the Pearl River Delta region. An atmospheric circulation analysis indicates that spring compound dry–hot events in the Pearl River Basin are commonly accompanied by persistent abnormal high-pressure systems, relatively weak westerly transport from subtropical regions such as the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal (20–25 °N), and limited moisture input from the western Pacific region. The results of this study can help to better understand and analyze the risk changes of extreme events in the context of global warming. Full article

On 23 January 2024, a M_S7.1 earthquake struck Wushi County, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, marking the largest seismic event in the Southern Tianshan (STS) region in the past century. This study investigates the relationship between hydrothermal fluid circulation and seismic activity by analyzing the chemical composition and origin of fluids in natural hot springs along the Maidan Fracture (MDF). Results reveal two distinct hydrochemical water types (Ca-HCO₃ and Ca-Mg-Cl). The δD and δ¹⁸O values indicating spring water are influenced by atmospheric precipitation input and altitude. Circulation depths (621–3492 m) and thermal reservoir temperatures (18–90 °C) were estimated. Notably, the high ³He/⁴He ratios (3.71 Ra) and mantle-derived ³He content reached 46.48%, confirming that complex gas–water–rock interactions occur at fracture intersections. Continuous monitoring at site S13 (144 km from the epicenter of the Wushi M_S7.1 earthquake) captured pre-and post-seismic hydrogeochemical fingerprints linked to the Wushi MS7.1 earthquake. Stress accumulation along the MDF induced permeability changes, perturbing hydrogeochemical equilibrium. At 42 days pre-Wushi M_S7.1 earthquake, δ¹³C DIC exceeded +2σ thresholds (−2.12‰), signaling deep fracture expansion and CO₂ release. By 38 days pre-Wushi M_S7.1 earthquake, Na⁺, SO₄²⁻, and δ¹⁸O surpassed 2σ levels, reflecting hydraulic connection between deep-seated and shallow fracture networks. Ion concentrations and isotope values showed dynamic shifts during the earthquake, which revealed episodic stress transfer along fault asperities. Post-Wushi M_S7.1 earthquake, fracture closure reduced deep fluid input, causing δ¹³C DIC to drop to −4.89‰, with ion concentrations returning to baseline within 34 days. Trace elements such as Be and Sr exhibited anomalies 12 days before the Wushi M_S7.1 earthquake, while elements like Li, B, and Rb showed anomalies 24 days after the Wushi M_S7.1 earthquake. Hydrochemical monitoring of hot springs captures such critical stress-induced signals, offering vital insights for earthquake forecasting in tectonically active regions. Full article

The remarkable expansion of lake areas across the Changtang Plateau (CTP, located in the central Tibetan Plateau) since the late 1990s has drawn considerable scientific interest, presenting a striking contrast to the global decline in natural lake water storage observed during the same period. This study systematically investigates the mechanisms underlying lake area variations on the CTP by integrating glacierized area changes derived from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform with atmospheric circulation patterns from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. Our analysis demonstrates that the limited glacier coverage on the CTP exerted significant influence only on glacial lakes in the southern region (r = −0.65, p < 0.05). The widespread lake expansion across the CTP predominantly stems from precipitation increases (r = 0.74, p < 0.01) associated with atmospheric circulation changes. Enhanced Indian summer monsoon (ISM) activity facilitates anomalous moisture transport from the Indian Ocean to the southwestern CTP, manifesting as increased specific humidity (Qa) in summer. Simultaneously, the weakened westerly jet stream reinforces moisture convergence across the CTP, driving enhanced annual precipitation. By coupling glacier coverage variations with atmospheric processes, this research establishes that precipitation anomalies rather than glacial meltwater primarily govern the extensive lake expansion on the CTP. These findings offer critical insights for guiding ecological security strategies and sustainable development initiatives on the CTP. Full article

Climate change manifests itself in rising temperatures across the continent and affects the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by changing sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation. This affects precipitation and temperature patterns, with South Africa normally experiencing drier conditions during El Niño events. These weather anomalies influence crop yields and food prices. Spatial price transmission indicates the extent to which prices of agricultural goods are linked across different geographical areas and how quickly price signals from one area are passed on to another. Although numerous studies explore spatial price transmission between various countries, there is a gap in the literature on price transmission between the US and South African maize markets during ENSO events. Therefore, we investigate how ENSO-related events impacted maize price transmission between the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange from 1997 to 2024. The empirical analysis starts with a correlation analysis, followed by tests for cointegration and error correction models. The results confirm the dominating impact of US maize prices on South African prices, but also how this relationship changes based on the nature of the ENSO event. There is some indication of lower levels of integration and higher levels of price diversion during El Niño periods. Full article

This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of dust events over Iran, using synoptic data from 286 meteorological stations. The dust events are classified according to synoptic dust codes as suspended dust and others (i.e., blowing dust, dust storms) and based on their intensity with horizontal visibility ≤1, 3, 5, and 10 km. Severe events (visibility ≤ 1 km) of suspended dust (code 06) occurred primarily in the western parts of Iran, while blowing dust events of moderate or severe intensity dominated over the south and eastern Iran, thus revealing a contrasting spatial distribution regarding the type and frequency of dust events. Furthermore, a distinct seasonality is revealed in the number of dust events, since suspended dust maximized in SW Iran from March to July, highly associated with Shamal winds, while blowing dust storms over south and east Iran maximized from April to August. Zabol city, east Iran, and some stations along the coast of the Arabian Sea are highly impacted by this type of dust storm throughout the year. Trend analysis revealed a notable increase in frequency of dust events during the period 1994–2023, particularly in the western part of Iran, mostly attributed to transboundary dust from the Mesopotamian plains. The large increase in dust activity during 1994–2009 was followed by a decrease during the 2010s at many stations, while notable differences were observed in the spatial distribution of the trends in suspended and blowing dust. An inverse correlation between dust events and precipitation anomalies was observed, since years with abnormal precipitation (e.g., 2019; 138% increase) were related to a substantial decrease in dust occurrence. Over an 11-year period, surface dust concentrations exceeded the annual PM₁₀ threshold of 50 µg/m³ on more than 800 days, with maximum concentrations reaching up to 1411 µg/m³. This highlights the urgent need for effective management strategies to mitigate the impacts of dust storms on air quality and public health in Iran. Full article