Search Results (30)

This study examined the ‘too central to fail’ concept in the South African equity sector. We employed the Granger causality framework and PageRank algorithm to generate the centrality scores of the sectors on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange under extreme market conditions. Using the realized volatilities of sectoral returns for the full sample period (3 January 2006–31 December 2021), as well as during the global financial crisis (GFC), European debt crisis (EDC), COVID-19 pandemic, and US–China trade war sub-periods, we analyzed the sectors’ interconnections and calculated each sector’s centrality score across the entire sample and under different extreme market conditions. This allowed us to rank sectors relative to their centrality scores. The results indicate that, in the full sample, the insurance sector has the highest PageRank centrality score, suggesting it is too central to fail. This implies that the insurance sector acts as a systemic receiver of risks and provides stability within the network of sectors. However, the sub-period analyses reveal that General Industrial and Automobiles emerged as the key sectors with the highest PageRank centrality scores, and shocks from other sectors can disproportionately affect these industries during crisis periods. Underperformance in these sectors could have destabilizing effects on the South African economy. The findings have significant implications for regulators and policymakers, portfolio and fund managers, local and international investors, and researchers in the field of finance. Full article

This study analyzes how the insurance distribution channel can affect insurance fraud. It uses econometric models that confirm the existence of claim manipulation as a form of insurance fraud, whereby policyholders circumvent the bonus–malus system and reduce the actual burden of insurance deductibles. The econometric approach is based on joint regression models for the probability that a claim is manipulated on one hand, and the probability that the policyholder has strong incentives to do so, on the other hand. The estimation shows that there is a significantly positive residual correlation between these regressions, which establishes the likelihood of fraudulent claim manipulation. The econometric modelling of claim cost allows us to disentangle the manipulation of claims that correspond to true losses and small false claims filed at the end of the policy year, and also to highlight the role of the insurance distribution channel in these fraud mechanisms. Using data from two Taiwanese car insurers with very different distribution channels in 2010, we compare an insurer that relies heavily on dealer-owned agents (DOAs) with another insurer that does not rely on DOAs at all. We find strong evidence of severe claim manipulation when insurance is sold through DOAs. Moreover, as the first insurer significantly reduced its reliance on the DOA channel over time, we perform a before–after comparison using data from 2010 and 2018. The results show that the claim manipulation fraud previously observed in the DOA channel decreases as the market share of this distribution channel is reduced. All these results highlight the role of automobile insurance agencies in facilitating this fraud process. The theoretical underpinnings of our analysis are provided by a claim fraud model considering collusion and audit. Full article

The automobile insurance industry plays a pivotal role in the financial system, fostering economic stability through effective risk management and consumer confidence. Continuous enhancement in price optimisation not only ensures the sustainability of insurers but also fosters a more competitive, fair, and balanced market, which is vital for a country’s economic development. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology for determining the optimal price offered by insurance firms for automobile policies in an industry where a First Price Sealed Bid auction system operates. A statistical methodology is employed to ascertain the expected value and standard deviation of the policies on offer in the public domain, whereby these values are calculated using a heteroskedastic linear regression estimation methodology. Furthermore, the aforementioned expected values and standard deviation enable the calculation of the value of the cumulative distribution for an optimal price set within the public offer. This study demonstrates that identifying the optimal price that maximizes profits is analogous to establishing an expected market share for each niche automobile policy market. Moreover, the market share can be calculated through a straightforward heteroskedastic linear regression estimation for instances where market shares are below 50%. Full article

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) in infinite mixture distributions often lacks closed-form solutions, requiring numerical methods such as the Newton–Raphson algorithm. Selecting appropriate initial values is a critical challenge in these procedures. This study introduces a bootstrap-based approach to determine initial parameter values for MLE, employing both nonparametric and parametric bootstrap methods to generate the mixing distribution. Monte Carlo simulations across multiple cases demonstrate that the bootstrap-based approaches, especially the nonparametric bootstrap, provide reliable and efficient initialization and yield consistent maximum likelihood estimates even when raw moments are undefined. The practical applicability of the method is illustrated using three empirical datasets: third-party liability claims in Indonesia, automobile insurance claim frequency in Australia, and total car accident costs in Spain. The results indicate stable convergence, accurate parameter estimation, and improved reliability for actuarial applications, including premium calculation and risk assessment. The proposed approach offers a robust and versatile tool both for research and in practice in complex or nonstandard mixture distributions. Full article

In the transportation services industry, the proper assessment of insurance claim count distribution is an important step to determine insurance premiums based on policyholders’ risk profiles. Risk factors are identified through regression analysis. In this paper, the inverse trinomial distribution is proposed as a count data model for insurance claims characterised by having long tails and a high index of dispersion. Two regression models are developed to identify associated risk factors. Other popular models, such as the negative binomial and COM-Poisson, are fitted and compared to information criteria. The risk profiles of policyholders are determined based on the selected model. To illustrate the application of the inverse trinomial regression models, the ausprivautolong dataset of automobile claims in Australia has been fitted with identification of risk factors. Full article

The aim of this article is to explore the impact of digitalization on corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the automobile insurance sector in Morocco. This article first explores the theoretical and conceptual foundations of digital transformation and CSR. A mixed methods approach is then used, combining qualitative interviews with a wider quantitative survey, to investigate how digital innovations influence CSR practices. Interview analysis provides the basis for the development of a conceptual framework and eight hypotheses, which are then tested using quantitative techniques to analyze survey data. The results reveal several links between the benefits of digitalization and CSR. Claims management platforms, digital roadside assistance tools, and digital vehicle assessment and inspection all positively impact policyholders’ well-being in terms of compensation and asset preservation, thereby enhancing the CSR profile of automobile insurers. Similarly, augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) training and simulation, as well as repair assistance, have positive impacts on policyholders’ well-being and advance the CSR positioning of automobile insurers. This article has limitations as it is based on a narrow industrial sector in a single country, but it nonetheless highlights certain relevant interrelationships between digitalization and CSR, contributing to the development of theory and practice in these research areas. Full article

The objective of this paper is to assess the behavior of policyholders and insurance companies in the presence of adverse selection by accounting for costly search and selection efforts, respectively. Insurers seek to stave off high-risk types, while consumers are hypothesized to maximize coverage at a given premium. Reaction functions are derived for the two players giving rise to Nash equilibria in efforts space, which are separating almost certainly regardless of the share of low risks in the market. Empirical evidence from the Australian market for automobile insurance is analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling. Convergence has been achieved with both the developmental and test samples. Both consumer search and insurer selection are found to be positively correlated with risk type, providing a good measure of empirical support for the theoretical model. Full article

Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) are the standard tool used for pricing in the field of automobile insurance. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are more complex and computationally intensive but allow taking into account nonlinear effects without the need to discretize the explanatory variables. In addition, they fit perfectly into the mental framework shared by actuaries and are easier to use and interpret than machine learning models, such as trees or neural networks. This work compares both the GLM and GAM approaches, using a wide sample of policies to assess their differences in terms of quality of predictions, complexity of use, and time of execution. The results show that GAMs are a powerful alternative to GLMs, particularly when “big data” implementations of GAMs are used. Full article

Despite the rapid expansion in the insurance industry, many issues remain unresolved and may require immediate action. As the insurance sector continues to evolve with the development of new technologies, it faces more challenges, especially related to data security and fraud. The fraud-prevention data and tactics presently used by insurance firms are outdated and ineffective. Additionally, insurance firms have traditionally handled the settlement of all consumer claims through lengthy manual processes. These manual processes need to be changed to provide opportunities for insurance businesses to grow. In the case of vehicles, the information obtained from an automobile data recorder can be used as evidence. Data from automated vehicles are critical because they can help the police, law enforcement agencies, and insurance companies to reconstruct the events leading up to a collision. Insurance companies require the forensic analysis of accident videos, which is a time-consuming process and involves a large amount of storage. Due to hardware limitations and associated costs, the current standalone (and often dedicated) computing infrastructures used for this purpose are quite limited. Previous research focused on simple video analysis tasks within cloud computing and blockchain technology. The requirements for a large-scale auto-insurance system are quite high and need more thorough investigation. In this paper, a review of the contribution of recent approaches to storing accidental data in cloud computing using blockchain is provided. We focused on the latest cloud and blockchain studies related to auto-insurance along with the related issues and challenges. Some useful solutions and recommendations are provided to address the identified issues and challenges in the cloud-based and blockchain-based auto-insurance sector. Full article

This study presents a novel hybrid framework combining feature selection, oversampling, and machine learning (ML) to improve the prediction performance of vehicle insurance. The framework addresses the class imbalance problem in binary classification tasks by employing principal component analysis for feature selection, the synthetic minority oversampling technique for oversampling, and the random forest ML classifier for prediction. The results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid framework outperforms the conventional approach and achieves better accuracy. The purpose of this study is to provide insurance managers and practitioners with novel insights into how to improve prediction accuracy and decrease financial risks for the insurance industry. Full article

Fighting fraudulent insurance claims is a vital task for insurance companies as it costs them billions of dollars each year. Fraudulent insurance claims happen in all areas of insurance, with auto insurance claims being the most widely reported and prominent type of fraud. Traditional methods for identifying fraudulent claims, such as statistical techniques for predictive modeling, can be both costly and inaccurate. In this research, we propose a new way to detect fraudulent insurance claims using a data-driven approach. We clean and augment the data using analysis-based techniques to deal with an imbalanced dataset. Three pre-trained Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) models, AlexNet, InceptionV3 and Resnet101, are selected and minimized by reducing the redundant blocks of layers. These CNN models are stacked in parallel with a proposed 1D CNN model using Bagged Ensemble Learning, where an SVM classifier is used to extract the results separately for the CNN models, which is later combined using the majority polling technique. The proposed method was tested on a public dataset and produced an accuracy of 98%, with a 2% Brier score loss. The numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves promising results for detecting fake accident claims. Full article

Various techniques can be applied to center pillars to enhance collision characteristics during side crashes. For instance, patchwork (PW) can be welded to the center pillar to increase its stiffness, and partial softening (PS) can be applied to provide ductility. Side crash tests are conducted by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) to evaluate collision resistance. However, it is difficult to evaluate collision toughness and energy distribution flow for each automobile component. In this study, a side crash simulation was performed with IIHS instruction. We investigated the effect of hot press forming (HPF) a center pillar with a combination of PW and PS techniques on collision toughness and energy distribution flow. As a result, the role of PW and PS techniques were verified during side crashes. PW improved the strain energy and intrusion displacement by 10% and 7.5%, respectively, and PS improved the plastic deformation energy and intrusion displacement by 10%. When PW and PS were applied to the HPF center pillar simultaneously, a synergistic effect was achieved. Full article

The study of actuarial fairness in auto insurance has been an important issue in the decision making of rate regulation. Risk classification and estimating risk relativities through statistical modeling become essential to help achieve fairness in premium rates. However, because of minor adjustments to risk relativities allowed by regulation rules, the rates charged eventually may not align with the empirical risk relativities calculated from insurance loss data. Therefore, investigating the relationship between the premium rates and loss costs at different risk factor levels becomes important for studying insurance fairness, particularly from rate regulation perspectives. This work applies statistical models to rate and classification data from the automobile statistical plan to investigate the disparities between insurance premiums and loss costs. The focus is on major risk factors used in the rate regulation, as our goal is to address fairness at the industry level. Various statistical models have been constructed to validate the suitableness of the proposed methods that determine a fixed effect. The fixed effect caused by the disparity of loss cost and premium rates is estimated by those statistical models. Using Canadian data, we found that there are no significant excessive premiums charged at the industry level, but the disparity between loss cost and premiums is high for urban drivers at the industry level. This study will help better understand the extent of auto insurance fairness at the industry level across different insured groups characterized by risk factor levels. The proposed fixed-effect models can also reveal the overall average loss ratio, which can tell us the fairness at the industry level when compared to loss ratios by the regulation rules. Full article

The bonus-malus system (BMS) is one of the most widely used tools in merit-rating automobile insurance, with the primary goal of ensuring that fair premiums are paid by all policyholders. The traditional BMS is dependent only on the claim frequency. Thus, an insured person who makes a claim with a small severity is penalized unfairly compared to an individual who makes a large severity claim. This study proposes a model for estimating the bonus-malus premium by employing a limit value (monetary unit) which distinguishes claim size into small and large based on claim frequency and claim severity distributions. This assists in determining the penalties for policyholders with claim sizes falling above and below the limit value. The number of claims is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution, and the total number of claims with a size greater than the limit value is considered a binomial distribution. The underlying risk of each policyholder is assumed to follow a beta Lindley distribution and is referred to as the prior distribution. Each policyholder’s claim size is also assumed to follow a gamma distribution, with the Lindley distribution considered as the prior distribution. Bonus-malus premiums are calculated following the Bayesian method. Practical examples using an actual data set are provided, and the results generated are compared to those produced using the traditional Poisson binomial-exponential beta model. This methodology provides a more equitable mechanism for penalizing policyholders in the portfolio. Full article

In recent years it has become possible to collect GPS data from drivers and to incorporate these data into automobile insurance pricing for the driver. These data are continuously collected and processed nightly into metadata consisting of mileage and time summaries of each discrete trip taken, and a set of behavioral scores describing attributes of the trip (e.g, driver fatigue or driver distraction), so we examine whether it can be used to identify periods of increased risk by successfully classifying trips that occur immediately before a trip in which there was an incident leading to a claim for that driver. Identification of periods of increased risk for a driver is valuable because it creates an opportunity for intervention and, potentially, avoidance of a claim. We examine metadata for each trip a driver takes and train a classifier to predict whether the following trip is one in which a claim occurs for that driver. By achieving an area under the receiver–operator characteristic above 0.6, we show that it is possible to predict claims in advance. Additionally, we compare the predictive power, as measured by the area under the receiver–operator characteristic of XGBoost classifiers trained to predict whether a driver will have a claim using exposure features such as driven miles, and those trained using behavioral features such as a computed speed score. Full article