Search Results (2,444)

Rapid climate change has exacerbated global ecosystem degradation, leading to habitat fragmentation and landscape connectivity loss. Constructing ecological networks (EN) with resilient conduction functions and conservation priorities is crucial for maintaining regional ecological security and promoting sustainable development. However, the spatiotemporal modeling and dynamic resilience assessment of EN under the combined impacts of future climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes remain underexplored. This study focuses on the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration (CYUA), China, and integrates landscape ecology with complex network theory to develop a dynamic resilience assessment framework that incorporates multi-scenario LULC projections, multi-temporal EN construction, and node-link disturbance simulations. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP) scenarios, we quantified spatiotemporal variations in EN resilience and identified resilience-based conservation priority areas. The results show that: (1) Future EN patterns exhibit a westward clustering trend, with expanding habitat areas and enhanced connectivity. (2) From 2000 to 2040, EN resilience remains generally stable, but diverges significantly across scenarios—showing steady increases under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, while slightly declining under SSP2-4.5. (3) Approximately 20% of nodes and 40% of links are identified as critical components for maintaining structural-functional resilience, and are projected to form conservation priority patterns characterized by larger habitat areas and more compact connectivity under future scenarios. The multi-scenario analysis provides differentiated strategies for EN planning and ecological conservation. This framework offers adaptive and resilient solutions for regional ecosystem management under climate change. Full article

The temperature-based indicators heating and cooling degree days, are frequently utilized to quantitatively link indoor energy demand and outdoor thermal conditions, especially in the context of climate change. We present a comprehensive study of the heating and cooling degree-days and the degree-days categories for the near past (1976–2005), and the AR5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario-driven future (2066–2095) over Southeast Europe based on an elaborated methodology and performed using a 19 combinations of driving global and regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX with horizontal resolution of 0.11°. Alongside the explicit focus of the degree-days categories and the finer grid resolution, the study benefits substantially from the consideration of the monthly, rather than annual, time scale, which allows the assessment of the intra-annual variations of all analyzed parameters. We provide evidences that the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is capable of simulating the spatiotemporal patterns of the degree-days and degree-day categories for the near past period. Generally, we demonstrate also a steady growth in cooling and a decrease in heating degree-days, where the change of the former is larger in relative terms. Additionally, we show an overall shift toward warmer degree-day categories as well as prolongation of the cooling season and shortening of the heating season. As a whole, the magnitude of the projected long-term changes is significantly stronger for the ’pessimistic’ scenario RCP8.5 than the ’realistic’ scenario RCP4.5. These outcomes are consistent with the well-documented general temperature trend in the gradually warming climate of Southeast Europe. The patterns of the projected long-term changes, however, exhibit essential heterogeneity, both in time and space, as well as among the analyzed parameters. This finding is manifested, in particular, in the coexistence of opposite tendencies for some degree-day categories over neighboring parts of the domain and non-negligible month-to-month variations. Most importantly, the present study unequivocally affirms the significance of the anticipated long-term changes of the considered parameters over Southeast Europe in the RCP scenario-driven future with all subsequent and far-reaching effects on the heating, cooling, and ventilation industry. Full article

Accurate recognition of estrus behavior in sows is of great importance for achieving scientific breeding management, improving reproductive efficiency, and reducing labor costs in modern pig farms. However, due to the evident spatiotemporal continuity, stage-specific changes, and ambiguous category boundaries of estrus behaviors, traditional methods based on static images or manual observation suffer from low efficiency and high misjudgment rates in practical applications. To address these issues, this study follows a video-based behavior recognition approach and designs three deep learning model structures: (Convolutional Neural Network combined with Long Short-Term Memory) CNN + LSTM, (Three-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network) 3D-CNN, and (Convolutional Neural Network combined with Temporal Convolutional Network) CNN + TCN, aiming to achieve high-precision recognition and classification of four key behaviors (SOB, SOC, SOS, SOW) during the estrus process in sows. In terms of data processing, a sliding window strategy was adopted to slice the annotated video sequences, constructing image sequence samples with uniform length. The training, validation, and test sets were divided in a 6:2:2 ratio, ensuring balanced distribution of behavior categories. During model training and evaluation, a systematic comparative analysis was conducted from multiple aspects, including loss function variation (Loss), accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, confusion matrix, and ROC-AUC curves. Experimental results show that the CNN + TCN model performed best overall, with validation accuracy exceeding 0.98, F1-score approaching 1.0, and an average AUC value of 0.9988, demonstrating excellent recognition accuracy and generalization ability. The 3D-CNN model performed well in recognizing short-term dynamic behaviors (such as SOC), achieving a validation F1-score of 0.91 and an AUC of 0.770, making it suitable for high-frequency, short-duration behavior recognition. The CNN + LSTM model exhibited good robustness in handling long-duration static behaviors (such as SOB and SOS), with a validation accuracy of 0.99 and an AUC of 0.9965. In addition, this study further developed an intelligent recognition system with front-end visualization, result feedback, and user interaction functions, enabling local deployment and real-time application of the model in farming environments, thus providing practical technical support for the digitalization and intelligentization of reproductive management in large-scale pig farms. Full article

Global warming poses a growing threat to winter wheat production in Henan Province, a critical region for China’s food security, necessitating a quantitative assessment of climate impacts. This study aimed to quantify the dominant climatic drivers of winter wheat yield and assess its spatiotemporal evolution and future risks under climate change, thereby providing a scientific basis for targeted adaptation strategies. Thus, the APSIM model in combination with the Geodetector method was applied to quantify the spatiotemporal response of winter wheat yield to climate change in Henan Province under historical (1957–2020) and SSP245 scenarios. The study results demonstrated significant trends in climatic factors during the winter wheat growing season: precipitation decreased by an average of 3.09 mm/decade, sunshine hours declined by 36 h/decade, wind speed reduced by 0.447 m/(s·decade), and evaporation decreased by 14.7 mm/decade. In contrast, the accumulated temperature ≥ 0 °C significantly increased by 70.9 °C·d/decade. Geodetector analysis further identified accumulated temperature as the dominant climatic driver (q = 0.548), followed by precipitation (q = 0.340) and sunshine hours (q = 0.261). Yield simulations from 1960 to 2018 indicated that most regions maintained stable or slightly increasing yields (<50 kg·ha⁻¹·decade⁻¹), though some areas experienced fluctuating declines. Under future scenarios, major production regions in Henan Province (Zhengzhou, Xinxiang, Luoyang) are projected to see substantial yield increases, with growth rates of 147.2–148.9 kg·ha⁻¹·decade⁻¹. Specifically, Xinxiang is expected to achieve yields of 6200 kg·ha⁻¹. The frequency of climate-induced negative yield years decreased by approximately 35% after 2003, highlighting the role of improved agricultural technologies in enhancing climate resilience. This study clarifies how multiple climatic factors jointly affect winter wheat yield, identifying rising accumulated temperature and water stress as key future constraints. It recommends optimizing varietal selection and cultivation practices according to regional climate patterns to improve policy relevance and local applicability. Full article

The large-scale utilization of wind and solar energy is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality targets. However, as extensive wind and solar power generation is integrated via power electronic devices, the inertia level of power systems continues to decline. This leads to a significant reduction in the system’s frequency regulation capability, posing a serious threat to frequency stability. Optimizing the system is an essential measure to ensure its safe and stable operation. Traditional optimization approaches, which separately optimize transmission and distribution systems, may fail to adequately account for the variability and uncertainty of renewable energy sources, as well as the impact of inertia changes on system stability. Therefore, this paper proposes a two-layer optimization method aimed at simultaneously optimizing the operation of transmission and distribution systems while satisfying minimum inertia constraints. The upper-layer model comprehensively optimizes the operational costs of wind, solar, and thermal power systems under the minimum inertia requirement constraint. It considers the operational costs of energy storage, virtual inertia costs, and renewable energy curtailment costs to determine the total thermal power generation, energy storage charge/discharge power, and the proportion of renewable energy grid connection. The lower-layer model optimizes the spatiotemporal distribution of energy storage units within the distribution network, aiming to minimize total network losses and further reduce system operational costs. Through simulation analysis and computational verification using typical daily scenarios, this model enhances the disturbance resilience of the transmission network layer while reducing power losses in the distribution network layer. Building upon this optimization strategy, the model employs multi-scenario stochastic optimization to simulate the variability of wind, solar, and load, addressing uncertainties and correlations within the system. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed model not only effectively increases the integration rate of new energy sources but also enables timely responses to real-time system demands and fluctuations. Full article

Oases in arid regions are crucial for sustaining agricultural production and ecological stability, yet few studies have simultaneously examined the coupled dynamics of land use/cover change (LUCC), carbon emissions, and ecosystem service value (ESV) at the oasis–agricultural scale. This gap limits our understanding of how different land use trajectories shape trade-offs between carbon processes and ecosystem services in fragile arid ecosystems. This study examines the spatiotemporal interactions between land use carbon emissions and ESV from 1990 to 2020 in the Wensu Oasis, Northwest China, and predicts their future trajectories under four development scenarios. Multi-period remote sensing data, combined with the carbon emission coefficient method, modified equivalent factor method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, the coupling coordination degree model, and the PLUS model, were employed to quantify LUCC patterns, carbon emission intensity, ESV, and its coupling relationships. The results indicated that (1) cultivated land, construction land, and unused land expanded continuously (by 974.56, 66.77, and 1899.36 km²), while grassland, forests, and water bodies declined (by 1363.93, 77.92, and 1498.83 km²), with the most pronounced changes occurring between 2000 and 2010; (2) carbon emission intensity increased steadily—from 23.90 × 10⁴ t in 1990 to 169.17 × 10⁴ t in 2020—primarily driven by construction land expansion—whereas total ESV declined by 46.37%, with water and grassland losses contributing substantially; (3) carbon emission intensity and ESV exhibited a significant negative spatial correlation, and the coupling coordination degree remained low, following a “high in the north, low in the south” distribution; and (4) scenario simulations for 2030–2050 suggested that this negative correlation and low coordination will persist, with only the ecological protection scenario (EPS) showing potential to enhance both carbon sequestration and ESV. Based on spatial clustering patterns and scenario outcomes, we recommend spatially differentiated land use regulation and prioritizing EPS measures, including glacier and wetland conservation, adoption of water-saving irrigation technologies, development of agroforestry systems, and renewable energy utilization on unused land. By explicitly linking LUCC-driven carbon–ESV interactions with scenario-based prediction and evaluation, this study provides new insights into oasis sustainability, offers a scientific basis for balancing agricultural production with ecological protection in the oasis of the arid region, and informs China’s dual-carbon strategy, as well as the Sustainable Development Goals. Full article

Comprehension of spatio-temporal groundwater recharge (GWR) under climate change is imperative to enhance water resources availability and management. The main aim of this study is to examine climate change’s effects on spatio-temporal GWR. This study was done by ensembling five climate models and the physically-based WetSpass-M model to estimate GWR during baseline (1986 to 2015), mid-term (2031 to 2060), and long-term (2071 to 2100) periods for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In comparison to the Identification of unit Hydrographs and Component flows from Rainfall, Evaporation, and Streamflow (IHACRES)’s baseflow and direct runoff with corresponding WetSpass-M model outputs, the statistical indices showed good performance in simulating water balance components. Projected future temperature and rainfall will likely increase dramatically compared to the baseline period for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In comparison to the baseline period, the annual GWR had been projected to increase by 4.28 mm for RCP4.5 for the mid-term (MidT4.5), 15.27 mm for the long-term (LongT4.5), 2.38 mm for the mid-term (MidT8.5), and 13.11 mm for the long-term for RCP8.5 (LongT8.5), respectively. The seasonal GWR findings showed an increasing pattern during winter and spring, whereas it declined in autumn and summer. The mean monthly GWR for MidT4.5, LongT4.5, MidT8.5, and LongT8.5 will increase by 0.34, 1.26, 0.18, and 1.07 mm, respectively. The watershed’s downstream areas were receiving the lowest amount of GWR, and prone to drought. Therefore, this study advocates and recommends that stakeholders participate intensively in developing and implementing climate change resilience initiatives and water resources management strategies to offset the detrimental effects in the downstream areas. Full article

The Yellow River Basin (YRB), a pivotal ecoregion in China, has long been plagued by a range of ecological problems, including water loss, soil erosion, and ecological degradation. Despite previous reports on the ecological environment of YRB, systematic studies on the multi-factor driving mechanism and the coupling between the ecological and hydrological systems remain scarce. In this study, with multi-source remote-sensing imagery and measured hydrological data, the random forest (RF) model and the geographical detector (GD) technique were employed to quantify the dynamic spatiotemporal changes in the ecological environment of YRB in 2000–2024 and identify the driving factors. The variables analyzed in this study included gross primary productivity (GPP), fractional vegetation cover (FVC), land use and cover change (LUCC), meteorological statistics, as well as runoff and sediment data measured at hydrological stations in YRB. The main findings are as follows: first, the GPP and FVC increased significantly by 37.9% and 18.0%, respectively, in YRB in 2000–2024; second, LUCC was the strongest driver of spatiotemporal changes in the ecological environment of YRB; third, precipitation and runoff contributed positively to vegetation growth, whereas the sediment played a contrary role, and the response of ecological variables to the hydrological processes exhibited a time lag of 1–2 years. This study is expected to provide scientific insights into ecological conservation and water resources management in YRB, and offer a decision-making basis for the design of sustainability policies and eco-restoration initiatives. Full article

Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is a critical issue in aviation meteorology, posing serious risks to flight safety—especially at plateau airports with high elevation and complex terrain. This study investigates a convective wind shear event at Xining Airport on 29 May 2021. Multi-source observations—including the Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL), the Doppler weather radar (DWR), reanalysis datasets, and automated weather observation systems (AWOS)—were integrated to examine the event’s fine-scale structure and temporal evolution. High-resolution simulations were conducted using the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) framework within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results indicate that the formation of this wind shear was jointly triggered by convective downdrafts and the gust front. A northwesterly flow with peak wind speeds of 18 m/s intruded eastward across the runway, generating multiple radial velocity couplets on the eastern side, closely associated with mesoscale convergence and divergence. A vertical shear layer developed around 700 m above ground level, and the critical wind shear during aircraft go-around was linked to two convergence zones east of the runway. The event lasted about 30 min, producing abrupt changes in wind direction and vertical velocity, potentially causing flight path deviation and landing offset. Analysis of horizontal, vertical, and glide-path wind fields reveals the spatiotemporal evolution of the wind shear and its impact on aviation safety. The WRF-LES accurately captured key features such as wind shifts, speed surges, and vertical disturbances, with strong agreement to observations. The integration of multi-source observations with WRF-LES improves the accuracy and timeliness of wind shear detection and warning, providing valuable scientific support for enhancing safety at plateau airports. Full article

Understanding the regulatory effects of lakes on land surface temperature is critical for assessing regional climatological and ecological dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). This study investigates the spatiotemporal variability in the thermal effect of lakes across the TP from 2000 to 2022 using the MODIS land surface temperature product and a model-based lake surface water temperature product. Our results show that the lake–land temperature difference (LLTD) within 10 km buffer zones surrounding lakes ranges from −2.8 °C to 3.4 °C. A declining trend in 79.2% of the lakes is detected during 2000–2022, with summer contributing most significantly to this decrease at a rate of −0.56 °C per decade. Assessments of the spatial extent of lake thermal effects show that the “warm island” effect in autumn (5.5 km) influences a larger area compared to the “cold island” effect in summer (1.3 km). Furthermore, southwestern lakes exhibit stronger warming intensities, while northwestern lakes show more pronounced cooling intensities. Correlation analyses indicate that lake thermal effects are significantly related to lake depth, freeze-up start date, and salinity. These findings highlight the importance of lake thermal regulation in heat balance changes and provide a foundation for further research into its climatic and ecological implications on the Tibetan Plateau. Full article

Accurate traffic forecasting underpins intelligent transportation systems. We present PTSTG, a compact spatio-temporal forecaster that couples a patch-based Transformer encoder with a data-driven adaptive adjacency and lightweight node graph blocks. The temporal module tokenizes multivariate series into fixed-length patches to capture short- and long-range patterns in a single pass, while the graph module refines node embeddings via learned inter-node aggregation. A horizon-specific head emits all steps simultaneously. On standard benchmarks (METR-LA, PEMS-BAY) and the LargeST (SD) split with horizons $\{3, 6, 12\}\to \{15, 30, 60\}$ minutes, PTSTG delivers competitive point-estimate results relative to recent temporal graph models. On METR-LA/PEMS-BAY, it remains close to strong baselines (e.g., DCRNN) without surpassing them; on LargeST, it attains favorable average RMSE/MAE while trailing the strongest hybrids on some horizons. The design preserves a compact footprint and single-pass, multi-horizon inference, and offers clear capacity-driven headroom without architectural changes. Full article

Environmental degradation and soil desertification are among the most severe environmental issues of recent decades worldwide. Over time, these processes have led to increasingly extreme and highly dynamic climatic conditions. In Brazil, the Northeast Region is characterized by semi-arid and arid areas that exhibit high climatic variability and are extremely vulnerable to environmental changes and pressures from human activities. The application of geotechnologies and geographic information system (GIS) modeling is essential to mitigate the impacts and pressures on the various ecosystems of Northeastern Brazil (NEB), where the Caatinga biome is predominant and critically threatened by these factors. In this context, the objective was to map and assess the spatiotemporal patterns of land use and land cover (LULC), detecting significant trends of loss and gain, based on surface reflectance data and precipitation data over two decades (2000–2019). Remote sensing datasets were utilized, including Landsat satellite data (LULC data), MODIS sensor data (surface reflectance product) and TRMM data (precipitation data). The Google Earth Engine (GEE) software was used to process orbital images and determine surface albedo and acquisition of the LULC dataset. Satellite data were subjected to multivariate analysis, descriptive statistics, dispersion and variability assessments. The results indicated a significant loss trend over the time series (2000–2019) for forest areas (Z_MK = −5.872; Tau = −0.958; p < 0.01) with an annual loss of −3705.853 km² and a total loss of −74,117.06 km². Conversely, farming areas (agriculture and pasture) exhibited a significant gain trend (Z_MK = 5.807; Tau = 0.947; p < 0.01), with an annual gain of +3978.898 km² and a total gain of +79,577.96 km², indicating a substantial expansion of these areas over time. However, it is important to emphasize that deforestation of the region’s native vegetation contributes to reduced water production and availability. The trend analysis identified an increase in environmental degradation due to the rapid expansion of land use. LULC and albedo data confirmed the intensification of deforestation in the Northern, Northwestern, Southern and Southeastern regions of NEB. The Northwestern region was the most directly impacted by this increase due to anthropogenic pressures. Over two decades (2000–2019), forested areas in the NEB lost approximately 80.000 km². Principal component analysis (PCA) identified a significant cumulative variance of 87.15%. It is concluded, then, that the spatiotemporal relationship between biophysical conditions and regional climate helps us to understand and evaluate the impacts and environmental dynamics, especially of the vegetation cover of the NEB. Full article

Xiamen Bay (XMB), a representative semi-enclosed bay, demonstrates hydrodynamic conditions and water exchange characteristics that are significantly influenced by alterations in the coastline. The three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and remote sensing interpretation techniques were utilized to examine coastline changes and evaluated the spatio-temporal variations in water residence time in XMB from 1955 to 2021. The results indicate that the coastline of the XMB has been considerably modified by extensive reclamation activities. The total reclaimed area reached up to 188.08 km² during the period of 1955–2021, resulting in a 17.8% reduction in the total bay area. The average residence time increased from 13.28 days in 1955 to 16.94 days in 2003 and then decreased to 16.12 days because of ecological restoration initiatives. Spatially, water residence time increased from the outer sea towards the inner bay, with the high value observed in the northwest part of XMB while the low value was observed in the southeastern region. Among the various sub-regions, Tong’an Bay experienced the most significant change in residence time, followed by the West Sea. Conversely, the Dadeng Waters and Jiulong River Estuary showed relatively minor increases in residence time. The primary factors influencing variations in water residence time are large-scale reclamation projects and ecological restoration measures. These findings provide a significant scientific foundation and technical support for the integrated management of the coastal zone and ecological restoration construction in XMB. Full article

The resilience and sustainable development of modern power distribution systems faces escalating challenges due to increasing renewable integration and extreme events. Traditional single-system approaches often overlook the spatiotemporal coordination of cross-domain restoration resources. In this paper, we propose a multi-stage resilience enhancement method that employs transportation and hydrogen energy systems. This approach coordinates the pre-event preventive allocation and multi-stage collaborative scheduling of diverse restoration resources, including remote-controlled switches (RCSs), mobile hydrogen emergency resources (MHERs), and hydrogen production and refueling stations (HPRSs). The proposed framework supports cross-stage dynamic optimization scheduling, enabling the development of adaptive resource dispatch strategies tailored to the characteristics of different stages, including prevention, fault isolation, and service restoration. The model is applicable to complex scenarios involving dynamically changing network topologies and is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem. Case studies based on the IEEE 33-bus system show that the proposed method can restore a distribution system’s resilience to approximately 87% of its normal level following extreme events. Full article

In recent years, under the dual pressures of climate change and human activities, wetlands in Liaoning Province, China, are increasingly threatened, raising concerns about regional ecological security. To better understand these changes, we developed a vulnerability assessment framework integrating a 30 m wetland dataset (2000–2020) with multi-source environmental and socio-economic data. Using the XGBoost–SHAP model, we analyzed wetland spatiotemporal evolution, driving mechanisms, and ecological vulnerability. Results show the following: (1) ecosystem service functions exhibited significant spatiotemporal differentiation; carbon storage has generally increased, water conservation capacity has significantly improved in the northern region, while wind erosion control and soil retention functions have declined due to urban expansion and agricultural development; (2) driving factors had evolved dynamically, shifting from population density in the early period to increasing influences of precipitation, vegetation index, GDP, and wetland area in later years; (3) ecologically vulnerable areas demonstrated a pattern of fragmented patches coexisting with zonal distribution, forming a three-level spatial gradient of ecological vulnerability—high in the north, moderate in the central region, and low in the southeast. These findings demonstrate the cascading effects of natural and human drivers on wetland ecosystems, and provide a sound scientific basis for targeted conservation, ecological restoration, and adaptive management in Liaoning Province. Full article