Search Results (459)

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) chronically face financing frictions. While supply chain finance (SCF) can help, reliable credit risk assessment in SCF is hindered by redundant features, heterogeneous data sources, small samples, and class imbalance. Using 360 A-share–listed SMEs from 2019–2023, we build a 77-indicator, multidimensional system covering SME and core-firm financials, supply chain stability, and macroeconomic conditions. To reduce dimensionality and remove low-contribution variables, feature selection is performed via a genetic algorithm enhanced LightGBM (GA-LightGBM). To mitigate class imbalance, we employ TabDDPM for data augmentation, yielding consistent improvements in downstream performance. For modeling, we propose a two-stage predictive framework that integrates TabNet-based feature engineering with a stacking ensemble (TabNet-Stacking). In our experiments, TabNet-Stacking outperforms strong machine-learning baselines in accuracy, recall, F1 score, and AUC. Full article

In this study, we aim to provide a comprehensive analysis of the risk management potential of sectoral Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) within financial portfolios. Our objectives are threefold: (i) to investigate the safe haven properties of sectoral CDSs; (ii) to assess their hedging effectiveness and evaluate the diversification benefits of incorporating sectoral CDSs into both conventional and Islamic stock market portfolios; and (iii) to compare these findings with those obtained from alternative assets such as the VSTOXX, gold, and Bitcoin indices. To achieve this, we estimate time-varying hedge ratios using a range of multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models and subsequently compute hedging effectiveness metrics. Conditional correlations derived from the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) model are employed in linear regression analyses to assess safe haven characteristics. This methodology is applied across different subperiods to capture the impact of the crypto currency bubble and the COVID-19 pandemic on hedging performance. Full article

Credit rating transitions and defaults are critical indicators of corporate creditworthiness, yet their accurate modeling remains a persistent challenge in risk management. Traditional models such as logistic regression (LR) and structural approaches (e.g., Merton’s model) offer transparency but often fail to capture nonlinear relationships, temporal dynamics, and firm heterogeneity. This study proposes a hybrid machine learning (ML) framework to explain and predict corporate rating transitions and defaults, addressing key limitations in existing literature. We benchmark four classification algorithms—LR, Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Support Vector Machines (SVM)—on a structured corporate credit dataset. Our approach integrates segment-specific modeling across rating bands, out-of-time validation to simulate real-world applicability, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values to ensure interpretability. The results demonstrate that ensemble methods, particularly XGBoost and RF, significantly outperform LR and SVM in predictive accuracy and early warning capability. Moreover, SHAP analysis reveals differentiated drivers of rating transitions across credit quality segments, highlighting the importance of tailored monitoring strategies. This research contributes to the literature by bridging predictive performance with interpretability in credit risk modeling and offers practical implications for regulators, rating agencies, and financial institutions seeking robust, transparent, and forward-looking credit assessment tools. Full article

As global economic integration deepens, import and export trade plays an increasingly vital role in China’s economy. To enhance regulatory efficiency and achieve scientific, transparent credit supervision, this study proposes a trade credit risk evaluation model based on interpretable machine learning, incorporating loss preferences. Key risk features are identified through a comprehensive interpretability framework combining SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), forming an optimal feature subset. Using Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) as the base model, a weight adjustment strategy is introduced to reduce costly misclassification of high-risk enterprises, effectively improving their recognition rate. However, this adjustment leads to a decline in overall accuracy. To address this trade-off, a Bagging ensemble framework is applied, which restores and slightly improves accuracy while maintaining low misclassification costs. Experimental results demonstrate that the interpretability framework improves transparency and business applicability, the weight adjustment strategy enhances high-risk enterprise detection, and Bagging balances the overall classification performance. The proposed method ensures reliable identification of high-risk enterprises while preserving overall model robustness, thereby providing strong practical value for enterprise credit risk assessment and decision-making. Full article

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a vital climate mitigation strategy aimed at reducing CO₂ emissions from industrial and energy sectors. This review presents a comprehensive analysis of CCS technologies, focusing on capture methods, transport systems, geological storage, geomechanical and geochemical aspects, modeling, risk assessment, monitoring, and economic feasibility. Among capture technologies, pre-combustion capture is identified as the most efficient (90–95%) due to its high purity and integration potential. Notably, most operational CCS projects in 2025 utilize pre-combustion capture, particularly in hydrogen production and natural gas processing. For geological storage, saline aquifers and depleted oil and gas reservoirs are highlighted as the most promising due to their vast capacity and proven containment. In the transport phase, pipeline systems are considered the most effective and scalable method, offering high efficiency and cost-effectiveness for large-scale CO₂ movement, especially in the supercritical phase. The study also emphasizes the importance of hybrid integrated risk assessment models, such as NRAP-Open-IAM, which combine deterministic simulations with probabilistic frameworks for robust site evaluation. In terms of monitoring, Seismic monitoring methods are regarded as the most reliable subsurface technique for tracking CO₂ plume migration and ensuring storage integrity. Economically, depleted reservoirs offer the most feasible option when integrated with existing infrastructure and supported by incentives like 45Q tax credits. The review concludes that successful CCS deployment requires interdisciplinary innovation, standardized risk protocols, and strong policy support. This work serves as a strategic reference for researchers, policymakers, and industry professionals aiming to scale CCS technologies for global decarbonization. Full article

The banking system, as the most important sector of the economy of every country, often encounters a number of risks. Financial institutions of that system operate in an unstable environment, and without having complete information about that environment, they may suffer significant losses. The main source of such losses is considered to be credit risks, and for the management of these, various mathematical models are being developed which will allow banks to make decisions on granting a loan. Lately, for this purpose, machine learning (ML) classification algorithms have often been used for credit risk modeling. In this research work, using the ideas of well-known ML algorithms, a new algorithm for solving the binary classification problem was developed. By means of the algorithm created, based on real data, a classification model has been developed. Qualitative indicators of that model, such as ROC AUC, PR AUC, precision, recall, and F1 score, were evaluated. By modifying the resulting probabilities into a range of 300–850 score points, a scoring model has been developed, the usage of which can mitigate credit risk and protect financial organizations from major losses. Full article

One of the most popular cure rate models in the literature is the Berkson and Gage mixture model. A characteristic of this model is that it considers the cure to be a latent event. However, there are situations in which the cure is well known, and this information must be considered in the analysis. In this context, this paper proposes a mixture model that accommodates both latent and non-latent cure fractions. More specifically, the proposal is to extend the Berkson and Gage mixture model to include the knowledge of the cure. A simulation study was conducted to investigate the asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, the proposed model is illustrated through an application to credit risk modeling. Full article

This study develops a machine learning framework to improve the prediction of automobile loan defaults by integrating explainable feature selection with advanced resampling techniques. Using publicly available data, we compare Logistic Regression, Random Forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Stacked classifiers. Feature selection methods, including SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values and Mutual Information (MI), and resampling techniques such as Synthetic Minority Over-sampling TEchnique (SMOTE), SMOTE-Tomek, and SMOTE Edited Nearest Neighbor (SMOTE-ENN), are evaluated. The results show that combining SHAP-based feature selection with SMOTE-Tomek resampling and a Stacked Classifier consistently achieves superior predictive performance. These findings highlight the value of explainable AI in enhancing credit risk assessment for auto lending. This research also offers valuable insights for addressing other financial modeling challenges involving imbalanced datasets, supporting more informed and reliable decision-making. Full article

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused market turmoil and economic distress. To understand the effect of the pandemic on the U.S. financial systemic risk, we analyze the explanatory power of detailed COVID-19 data on three market-based systemic risk measures (SRMs): Conditional Value at Risk, Distress Insurance Premium, and SRISK. In the time-series dimension, we use the Dynamic OLS model and find that financial variables, such as credit default swap spreads, equity correlation, and firm size, significantly affect the SRMs, but the COVID-19 variables do not appear to drive the SRMs. However, if we focus on the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, we find a positive and significant COVID-19 effect, especially before the government interventions. In the cross-sectional dimension, we run fixed-effect and event-study regressions with clustered variance-covariance matrices. We find that market capitalization helps to reduce a firm’s contribution to the SRMs, while firm size significantly predicts the surge in a firm’s SRM contribution when the pandemic first hits the system. The policy implications include that proper market interventions can help to mitigate the negative pandemic effect, and policymakers should continue the current regulation of required capital holding and consider size when designating systemically important financial institutions. Full article

This paper proposes a methodology for implementing a custom-developed explainability model for credit rating using behavioral data registered during the lifecycle of the borrowing that can replicate the score given by the regulatory model for the solidarity economy in Colombia. The methodology integrates continuous behavioral and financial variables from over 17,000 real credit histories into predictive models based on ridge regression, decision trees, random forests, XGBoost, and LightGBM. The models were trained and evaluated using cross-validation and RMSE metrics. LightGBM emerged as the most accurate model, effectively capturing nonlinear credit behavior patterns. To ensure interpretability, SHAP was used to identify the contribution of each feature to the model predictions. The presented model using LightGBM predicted the credit risk assessment in accordance with the regulatory model used by the Colombian Superintendence of the Solidarity Economy, with a root-mean-square error of 0.272 and an R² score of 0.99. We propose an alternative framework using explainable machine learning models aligned with the internal ratings-based approach under Basel II. Our model integrates variables collected throughout the borrowing lifecycle, offering a more comprehensive perspective than the regulatory model. While the regulatory framework adjusts itself generically to national regulations, our approach explicitly accounts for borrower-specific dynamics. Full article

This paper explores the integration of financial and operational flows in Supply Chain Finance (SCF) through the lens of Information Processing Theory (IPT). Despite increasing adoption of SCF solutions like reverse factoring and trade credit, existing literature lacks a unified theoretical framework that captures both financial and organizational complexities. Drawing from 47 peer-reviewed articles in leading supply chain journals, this study identifies key SCF dimensions—task characteristics, environment, and interdependence—as primary sources of uncertainty and information processing needs. It then examines how IT systems, coordination mechanisms, and organizational design enhance processing capacity, enabling firms to build SCF capabilities such as risk assessment, supplier onboarding, and financial process standardization. These capabilities facilitate financial supply chain integration through data connectivity, embedded flows, and collaborative planning. The study contributes a comprehensive conceptual model that connects SCF uncertainties, processing strategies, and performance outcomes, addressing theoretical and managerial gaps. It further provides a foundation for future empirical research and strategic design of SCF systems to enhance supply chain resilience and financial efficiency. Full article

This study assesses the financial soundness of Sudanese commercial banks during escalating civil conflict by integrating Altman’s Z-score models with scenario-based stress testing. Using audited financial data from 2016 to 2022 (pre-war) and projections through to 2028, the analysis evaluates resilience under low- and high-intensity conflict scenarios. Altman’s Model 3 (for non-industrial firms) and Model 4 (for emerging markets) are applied to capture liquidity, retained earnings, profitability, and leverage dynamics. The findings reveal relative stability between 2017–2020 and in 2022, contrasted by significant vulnerability in 2016 and 2021 due to macroeconomic deterioration, sanctions, and political instability. Liquidity emerged as the most critical driver of Z-score performance, followed by earnings retention and profitability, while leverage showed a context-specific positive effect under Sudan’s Islamic finance framework. Stress testing indicates that even under low-intensity conflict, rising liquidity risk, capital erosion, and credit risk threaten sectoral stability by 2025. High-intensity conflict projections suggest systemic collapse by 2028, characterized by unsustainable liquidity depletion, near-zero capital adequacy, and widespread defaults. The results demonstrate a direct relationship between conflict duration and systemic fragility, affirming the predictive value of Altman’s models when combined with stress testing. Policy implications include the urgent need for enhanced risk-based supervision, Basel II/III implementation, crisis reserves, contingency planning, and coordinated regulatory interventions to safeguard the stability of the banking sector in fragile states. Full article

By 2040, more than 80 million Americans will be aged ≥65, yet contemporary senior living communities still operate on a hospitality-first model developed for healthier cohorts three decades ago. This commentary argues that the next generation of senior living must pivot from hotel-style amenities to person-centric health platforms that proactively coordinate medical, functional, and social support. We outline four mutually reinforcing pillars. (1) Data infrastructure that stitches together clinical, functional, and social determinants of health enables continuous risk stratification and early intervention. (2) Ambient and conversational artificial-intelligence tools can extend sparse caregiving workforces while preserving resident autonomy. (3) Value-based contractual arrangements—for example, Medicare Advantage special-needs plans embedded within senior living sites—can realign financial incentives toward prevention rather than occupancy. (4) Targeted policy levers, including low-income housing tax credits for the “forgotten middle” and outcomes-based regulatory frameworks, can catalyze adoption at scale. Ultimately, re-architecting senior living around integrated technology, value-based financing and supportive regulation can transform these communities into preventive-care hubs that delay nursing home entry, improve quality of life, and reduce total cost of care. Full article

This paper uses survival analysis as a tool to assess credit risk in loan portfolios within the framework of the Basel Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach. By modeling the time to default using survival functions, the methodology allows for the estimation of default probabilities and the dynamic evaluation of portfolio performance. The model explicitly accounts for right censoring and demonstrates strong predictive accuracy. Furthermore, by incorporating additional information about the portfolio’s loss process, we show how to empirically estimate key risk measures—such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES)—that are sensitive to the age of the loans. Through simulations, we illustrate how loss distributions and the corresponding risk measures evolve over the loans’ life cycles. Our approach emphasizes the significant dependence of risk metrics on loan age, illustrating that risk profiles are inherently dynamic rather than static. Using a real-world dataset of 10,479 loans issued by Angolan commercial banks, combined with assumptions regarding loss processes, we demonstrate the practical applicability of the proposed methodology. This approach is particularly relevant for emerging markets with limited access to advanced credit risk modeling infrastructure. Full article

This study aims to combine deep and recurrent neural networks with a reduced-form portfolio model to predict future default rates across economic sectors. The industry-specific forecasts for Italian default rates produced with the proposed approach demonstrate its effectiveness, achieving significant levels of explained variance. The results obtained show that enhancing a reduced-form model by integrating it with neural networks is possible and practical for multivariate forecasting of future default frequencies. In our analysis, we utilize the recently proposed RecessionRisk⁺, a reduced-form latent-factor model developed for default and recession risk management applications as an improvement of the well-known CreditRisk⁺ model. The model has been empirically verified to exhibit some predictive power concerning future default rates. However, the theoretical framework underlying the model does not provide the elements necessary to define a proper estimator for forecasting the target default rates, leaving space for the application of a neural network framework to retrieve the latent information useful for default rate forecasting purposes. Among the neural network models tested in combination with RecessionRisk⁺, the best results are obtained with shallow LSTM networks. Full article