Search Results (153)

Earthquake forecast and risk assessment are of key importance in reducing casualties and property losses. However, they have not been fully achieved due to the complexity of earthquakes. Numerous studies have explored the correspondence of the b-value with changes in effective stress, leveraging temporal and spatial variations to identify precursor characteristics of destructive events in both natural and induced seismic activities. However, robust interpretation of predictive b-values hinges on rigorous estimation, as biased results can mislead conclusions. This paper provides a comprehensive review of spatiotemporal b-value estimation methods alongside statistical significance tests. A pilot b-value analysis of natural earthquakes and induced seismicity manifested the valid impression. The expansion of monitoring datasets with the development of acquisition technology or dense array and advanced estimation methodology will augment the utility of b-value analysis in seismic research and hazard assessment. Full article

Accurate ground deformation monitoring with interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) is often hindered by tropospheric delays caused by atmospheric pressure, temperature, and water vapor variations. While models such as ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5) provide first-order corrections, they often leave residual errors dominated by small-scale turbulent effects. To address this, we present a novel variational autoencoder with clustering (VAE-clustering) approach that performs unsupervised separation of atmospheric and deformation signals, followed by noise component removal via density-based clustering. The method is integrated into the MintPy pipeline for automated velocity and displacement time-series retrieval. We evaluate our approach on Sentinel-1 interferograms from three case studies: (1) land subsidence in Mashhad, Iran (2015–2022), (2) land subsidence in Tehran, Iran (2018–2021), and (3) postseismic deformation after the 2021 Acapulco earthquake. Across all cases, the method reduced the velocity standard deviation by approximately 70% compared to the ERA5 corrections, leading to more reliable displacement estimates. These results demonstrate that VAE-clustering can effectively mitigate residual tropospheric noise, improving the accuracy of large-scale InSAR time-series analyses for geohazard monitoring and related applications. Full article

Earthquake prediction remains a significant challenge in seismology, and advancements in signal processing techniques have opened new avenues for improving prediction accuracy. This paper explores the application of Time–Frequency Distributions (TFDs) to seismic signals to identify diagnostic precursory patterns of major earthquakes. TFDs provide a comprehensive analysis of the non-stationary nature of seismic data, allowing for the identification of precursory patterns based on energy concentration features. Current earthquake prediction models primarily focus on long-term forecasts, predicting events by identifying a cycle in historical data, or on nowcasting, providing alerts seconds after a quake has begun. However, both approaches offer limited utility for disaster management, compared to short-term earthquake prediction methods. This paper proposes a new possible precursory pattern of major earthquakes, tested through analysis of recent major earthquakes and their respective prior minor earthquakes for five earthquake-prone countries, namely Türkiye, Indonesia, the Philippines, New Zealand, and Japan. Precursors in the time–frequency domain have been consistently identified in all datasets within several hours or a few days before the major earthquakes occurred, which were not present in the observation and analysis of the earthquake catalogs in the time domain. This research contributes towards the ongoing efforts in earthquake prediction, highlighting the potential of quadratic non-linear TFDs as a significant tool for non-stationary seismic signal analysis. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no similar approach for consistently identifying earthquake diagnostics precursors has been proposed, and, therefore, we propose a novel approach in reliable earthquake prediction using TFD analysis. Full article

Effective earthquake early warning (EEW) is essential for disaster prevention in the built environment, enabling a rapid structural response, system shutdown, and occupant evacuation to mitigate damage and casualties. However, most current EEW systems lack rigorous reliability analyses of their predictive outcomes, limiting their effectiveness in real-world scenarios—especially for on-site warnings, where data are limited and time is critical. To address these challenges, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) framework based on Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD). By performing Bayesian inference, we estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters, thus outputting a reliability analysis of the prediction results. In addition, we incorporate a continual learning mechanism based on elastic weight consolidation, allowing the system to adapt quickly without full retraining. Our experiments demonstrate that our SVGD-BNN model significantly outperforms traditional peak displacement (Pd)-based approaches. In a 3 s time window, the Pearson correlation coefficient R increases by 9.2% and the residual standard deviation $SD$ decreases by 24.4% compared to a variational inference (VI)-based BNN. Furthermore, the prediction variance generated by the model can effectively reflect the uncertainty of the prediction results. The continual learning strategy reduces the training time by 133–194 s, enhancing the system’s responsiveness. These features make the proposed framework a promising tool for real-time, reliable, and adaptive EEW—supporting disaster-resilient building design and operation. Full article

Earthquakes are sudden and highly destructive events that severely disrupt infrastructure and logistics systems, making accurate and timely emergency material demand forecasting a critical challenge in disaster response. However, the scarcity of reliable data during the early stages of an earthquake limits the effectiveness of traditional forecasting methods. To address this issue, this study proposes a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates the Grey Model (GM(1,1)) with Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models (BDLMs), aiming to improve both the accuracy and adaptability of demand predictions. The approach operates in two phases: first, GM(1,1) generates preliminary forecasts using limited initial observations; second, BDLMs dynamically update these forecasts in real time as new data become available. The model is validated through a case study of the 2010 M7.1 Yushu earthquake in Qinghai Province, China. The results indicate that the hybrid method produces reliable forecasts even at the earliest stages of the disaster, with increasing accuracy as more observational data are incorporated. Our case study demonstrates that the integrated GM(1,1)-BDLM framework substantially reduces prediction errors compared to standalone GM(1,1). Using the first five days’ data to forecast fatalities and emergency material demand for days 6–10, the hybrid model achieves a 4.01% error rate—a 19.62 percentage point improvement over GM(1,1)’s 23.63% error rate. This adaptive forecasting mechanism offers robust support for evidence-based decision-making in emergency material allocation, enhancing the efficiency and responsiveness of post-disaster relief operations. Full article

The National Institute of Earth Physics (NIEP) in Romania has upgraded its seismic monitoring stations into multifunctional platforms equipped with advanced devices for measuring gas emissions, magnetic fields, telluric fields, solar radiation, and more. This enhancement enabled the integration of a seismic forecasting system designed to extend the alert time of the existing warning system, which previously relied solely on seismic data. The implementation of an Operational Earthquake Forecast (OEF) aims to expand NIEP’s existing Rapid Earthquake Early Warning System (REWS) which currently provides a warning time of 25–30 s before an earthquake originating in the Vrancea region reaches Bucharest. The AFROS project (PCE119/4.01.2021) introduced fundamental research essential to the development of the OEF system. As a result, real-time analyses of radon and CO₂ emissions are now publicly available at afros.infp.ro, dategeofizice. The primary monitored area is Vrancea, known for producing the most destructive earthquakes in Romania, with impacts extending to neighboring countries such as Bulgaria, Ukraine, and Moldova. The structure and methodology of the monitoring network are adaptable to other seismic regions, depending on their specific characteristics. All collected data are stored in an open-access database available in real time, geobs.infp.ro. The monitoring methods include threshold-based event detection and seismic data analysis. Each method involves specific technical nuances that distinguish this monitoring network as a novel approach in the field. In conclusion, experimental results indicate that the Gutenberg-Richter law, combined with gas emission measurements (radon and CO₂), can be used for real-time earthquake forecasting. This approach provides warning times ranging from several hours to a few days, with results made publicly accessible. Another key finding from several years of real-time monitoring is that the value of fundamental research lies in its practical application through cost-effective and easily implementable solutions—including equipment, maintenance, monitoring, and data analysis software. Full article

Accurately forecasting emergency material demand during the initial stages of disaster response is challenging due to communication disruptions and data scarcity. This study proposes a hybrid model integrating regression analysis and intelligent analysis to estimate casualties and predict emergency supply needs indirectly. A case study of five earthquake-affected villages validates the model, using building collapse rates and population data to calculate casualties and determine the demand for essential supplies, including food, water, medicine, and tents. The findings demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively addresses the “black box” condition by utilizing correction factors for population density, disaster preparedness, and emergency response capacity, providing a structured framework for rapid and accurate demand forecasting in disaster scenarios. Full article

An event is an occurrence that takes place at a specific time and location that can be either weather-related (snowfall), social (crime), natural (earthquake), political (political unrest), or medical (pandemic) in nature. These events do not belong to the “normal” or “usual” spectrum and result in a change in a given situation; thus, their prediction would be very beneficial, both in terms of timely response to them and for their prevention, for example, the prevention of traffic accidents. However, this is currently challenging for researchers, who are called upon to manage and analyze a huge volume of data in order to design applications for predicting events using artificial intelligence and high computing power. Although significant progress has been made in this area, the heterogeneity in the input data that a forecasting application needs to process—in terms of their nature (spatial, temporal, and semantic)—and the corresponding complex dependencies between them constitute the greatest challenge for researchers. For this reason, the initial forecasting applications process data for specific situations, in terms of number and characteristics, while, at the same time, having the possibility to respond to different situations, e.g., an application that predicts a pandemic can also predict a central phenomenon, simply by using different data types. In this work, we present the forecasting applications that have been designed to date. We also present a model for predicting traffic accidents using categorical logic, creating a Knowledge Base using the Resolution algorithm as a proof of concept. We study and analyze all possible scenarios that arise under different conditions. Finally, we implement the traffic accident prediction model using the Prolog language with the corresponding Queries in JPL. Full article

Earthquakes cause enormous social and economic damage. Consequently, the seismic process requires regular monitoring and systematic forecasting of strong earthquakes. This study introduces an enhanced iteration of the method of the minimum area of alarm (MMAA), refined to advance earthquake forecasting technology closer to its practical application. In the new version, a forecast is considered successful when all target earthquake epicenters within a specified time interval are contained within predefined alarm zones. Our updated algorithm optimizes the probability of successfully detecting earthquakes across forecast cycles and the probability for subsequent periods. A case study from the Kamchatka region demonstrates the practical application of this systematic forecasting approach. We propose that this computational technology can serve as an operational tool for generating early warnings of potential seismic hazards, and a research platform for conducting detailed investigations of precursor phenomena. Full article

This research explores the improvement of tsunami occurrence forecasting with machine learning predictive models using earthquake-related data analytics. The primary goal is to develop a predictive framework that integrates a wide range of data sources, including seismic, geospatial, and ecological data, toward improving the accuracy and lead times of tsunami occurrence predictions. The study employs machine learning methods, including Random Forest and Logistic Regression, for binary classification of tsunami events. Data collection is performed using a Kaggle dataset spanning 1995–2023, with preprocessing and exploratory analysis to identify critical patterns. The Random Forest model achieved superior performance with an accuracy of 0.90 and precision of 0.88 compared to Logistic Regression (accuracy: 0.89, precision: 0.87). These results underscore Random Forest’s effectiveness in handling imbalanced data. Challenges such as improving data quality and model interpretability are discussed, with recommendations for future improvements in real-time warning systems. Full article

On 23 January 2024, a M_S7.1 earthquake struck Wushi County, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, marking the largest seismic event in the Southern Tianshan (STS) region in the past century. This study investigates the relationship between hydrothermal fluid circulation and seismic activity by analyzing the chemical composition and origin of fluids in natural hot springs along the Maidan Fracture (MDF). Results reveal two distinct hydrochemical water types (Ca-HCO₃ and Ca-Mg-Cl). The δD and δ¹⁸O values indicating spring water are influenced by atmospheric precipitation input and altitude. Circulation depths (621–3492 m) and thermal reservoir temperatures (18–90 °C) were estimated. Notably, the high ³He/⁴He ratios (3.71 Ra) and mantle-derived ³He content reached 46.48%, confirming that complex gas–water–rock interactions occur at fracture intersections. Continuous monitoring at site S13 (144 km from the epicenter of the Wushi M_S7.1 earthquake) captured pre-and post-seismic hydrogeochemical fingerprints linked to the Wushi MS7.1 earthquake. Stress accumulation along the MDF induced permeability changes, perturbing hydrogeochemical equilibrium. At 42 days pre-Wushi M_S7.1 earthquake, δ¹³C DIC exceeded +2σ thresholds (−2.12‰), signaling deep fracture expansion and CO₂ release. By 38 days pre-Wushi M_S7.1 earthquake, Na⁺, SO₄²⁻, and δ¹⁸O surpassed 2σ levels, reflecting hydraulic connection between deep-seated and shallow fracture networks. Ion concentrations and isotope values showed dynamic shifts during the earthquake, which revealed episodic stress transfer along fault asperities. Post-Wushi M_S7.1 earthquake, fracture closure reduced deep fluid input, causing δ¹³C DIC to drop to −4.89‰, with ion concentrations returning to baseline within 34 days. Trace elements such as Be and Sr exhibited anomalies 12 days before the Wushi M_S7.1 earthquake, while elements like Li, B, and Rb showed anomalies 24 days after the Wushi M_S7.1 earthquake. Hydrochemical monitoring of hot springs captures such critical stress-induced signals, offering vital insights for earthquake forecasting in tectonically active regions. Full article

Earthquakes (EQs) are the most unpredictable and damaging natural disasters. Over the last hundred years, the scientific community has been engaged in an intense endeavor to attain a confident and secure method of seismic activity forecasting. So far, despite these efforts, no fully validated method for predicting EQs has been established. However, research over the last thirty years has documented a substantial number of seismic precursor phenomena, the correct evaluation and application of which may pave the way for the development of a reliable EQ prediction method in the near future. Most documented seismic precursors belong to the rapidly evolving field of electro-seismology, while a smaller subset falls within the traditional domain of classical seismology and geophysics. This article aims to compile, classify, and assess the most well-documented precursors while also proposing a preliminary framework for their more effective application. Full article

In statistical and nonlinear systems, two qualitatively distinct parameter regions are typically identified: the regular region, which is characterized by smooth behavior of key quantities; and the critical region, where these quantities exhibit singularities or strong fluctuations. Due to their starkly different properties, those regions are often perceived as being weakly related, if ever. However, here, we demonstrate that these regions are intimately connected, specifically showing how they have a relationship that can be explicitly revealed using self-similar approximation theory. The framework considered enables the prediction of observable quantities near the critical point based on information from the regular region, and vice versa. Remarkably, the method relies solely on asymptotic expansions with respect to a parameter, regardless of whether the expansion originates in the regular or critical region. The mathematical principles of self-similar theory remain consistent across both cases. We illustrate this consistency by extrapolating from the regular region to predict the existence, location, and critical indices of a critical point of an equation of state for a statistical system, even when no direct information about the critical region is available. Conversely, we explore extrapolation from the critical to the regular region in systems with discrete scale invariance, where log-periodic oscillations in observables introduce additional complexity. The findings provide insights and solutions applicable to diverse phenomena, including material fracture, stock market crashes, and earthquake forecasting. Full article

Earthquake activity poses significant risks to both human survival and economic development. However, earthquake forecasting remains a challenge due to the complex, poorly understood interactions that drive seismic events. In this study, we construct an earthquake percolation model to examine the relationships between earthquakes and the underlying patterns and processes in Southern California. Our results demonstrate that the model can capture the spatiotemporal and magnitude characteristics of seismic activity. Through clustering analysis, we identify two distinct regimes: a continuous increase driven by earthquake clustering, and a discontinuous increase resulting from the merging of clusters dominated by large, distinct mega-earthquakes. Notably, in the continuous increase regime, we observe that clusters exhibit a broader spatiotemporal distribution, suggesting long-range and long-term correlations. Additionally, by varying the magnitude threshold, we explore the scaling behavior of earthquake percolation. The robustness of our findings is confirmed through comparison with multiple shuffling tests. Full article

Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural phenomena, leading to significant loss of human life and substantial economic damage that severely impacts affected communities. Rapid detection and characterization of seismic parameters, including location and magnitude, are crucial for real-time seismological applications, including Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems. Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool to enhance the accuracy of these applications, enabling more efficient responses to seismic events of different magnitudes. This systematic review aims to provide researchers and professionals with a summary of the current state of ML applications in seismology, particularly on early earthquake magnitude estimations and related topics such as earthquake detection and seismic phase identification. A systematic search was conducted in Scopus, ScienceDirect, IEEE Xplore, and Web of Science databases, covering the period from early 2014 to 7 March 2025. The search terms included the following: (“earthquake magnitude” OR “earthquake early warning”) AND (prediction OR forecasting OR estimation OR forecast OR classification) AND (“machine learning” OR “deep learning” OR “artificial intelligence”). Out of the 472 articles initially identified, 28 were selected based on pre-defined inclusion criteria. The described methods and algorithms illustrate the strong performance of ML in earthquake magnitude estimation despite limited implementation in real-time systems. This highlights the need to develop standardized benchmark datasets to promote future progress in this field. Full article