Search Results (397)

The study of faults in seismic gap areas is essential for assessing the potential for future seismic activity and developing strategies to mitigate its impact. In this research, we employed a combination of geomorphological analysis, aerophotogrammetry, high-resolution topography, and soil analysis to estimate the age of tectonically exposed fault surfaces in a seismic gap area. Our focus was on the Piano delle Rose Fault in the northern Calabria region, (southern Italy), which is a significant regional tectonic structure associated with seismic hazards. We conducted a field survey to carry out structural and pedological observations and collect soil samples from the fault surface. These samples were analyzed to estimate the fault’s age based on their features and degree of pedogenic development. Additionally, we used high-resolution topography and aerophotogrammetry to create a detailed 3D model of the fault surface, allowing us to identify features such as fault scarps and offsets. Our results indicate recent activity on the fault surface, suggesting that the Piano delle Rose Fault may pose a significant seismic hazard. Soil analysis suggests that the onset of the fault surface is relatively young, estimated in an interval time from 450,000 to ~ 300,000 years old. Considering these age constraints, the long-term slip rates are estimated to range between ~0.12 mm/yr and ~0.33 mm/yr, which are values comparable with those of many other well-known active faults of the Apennines extensional belt. Analyses of key fault exposures document cumulative displacements up to 21 m. These values yield long-term slip rates ranging from ~0.2 mm/yr (100,000 years) to ~1.0 mm/yr (~20,000 years LGM), indicating persistent Late Quaternary activity. A second exposure records ~0.6 m of displacement in very young soils, confirming surface faulting during recent times and suggesting that the fault is potentially capable of generating ground-rupturing earthquakes. High-resolution topography and aerophotogrammetry analyses show evidence of ongoing tectonic deformation, indicating that the area is susceptible to future seismic activity and corresponding risk. Our study highlights the importance of integrating multiple techniques for examining fault surfaces in seismic gap areas. By combining geomorphological analysis, aerophotogrammetry, high-resolution topography, and soil analysis, we gain a comprehensive understanding of the structure and behavior of faults. This approach can help assess the potential for future seismic activity and develop strategies for mitigating its impact. Full article

Rural landscapes are changing rapidly, yet many assessments remain descriptive and weakly connected to planning instruments. This study connects rural landscape analysis with planning and management by examining post-earthquake transformations in Topaktaş (Tuşba, Van), a village redesigned and relocated after the 2011 events. Using ArcGIS 10.8 and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), we integrate DEM, slope, aspect, CORINE land cover Plus, surface-water presence/seasonality, and proximity to hazards (active and surface-rupture faults) and infrastructure (Karasu Stream, highways, village roads). A risk overlay is treated as a hard constraint. We produce suitability maps for settlement, agriculture, recreation, and industry; derive a composite optimum land-use surface; and translate outputs into decision rules (e.g., a 0–100 m fault no-build setback, riparian buffers, and slope thresholds) with an outline for implementation and monitoring. Key findings show legacy footprints at lower elevations, while new footprints cluster near the upper elevation band (DEM range 1642–1735 m). Most of the area exhibits 0–3% slopes, supporting low-impact access where hazards are manageable; however, several newly designated settlement tracts conflict with risk and water-service conditions. Although limited to a single case and available data resolutions, the workflow is transferable: it moves beyond mapping to actionable planning instruments—zoning overlays, buffers, thresholds, and phased management—supporting sustainable, culturally informed post-earthquake reconstruction. Full article

The rugged terrain and dense vegetation in the mountainous area of Luding after the strong earthquake have made geologic hazards hidden and difficult to verify, and there are limitations in the fine-resolution monitoring of small-scale landslides, especially in the area covered by high vegetation. Currently, there is a lack of research on the application of L-band LuTan-1 (LT-1) for landslide detection in the dense vegetation-covered area of the Luding strong earthquake zone, and it is necessary to carry out the analysis of the detection capability of LT-1 for small-scale landslide hazards under the complex terrain and dense vegetation area. In this study, the Stacking-InSAR method was employed using LT-1 and Sentinel-1 satellites to conduct deformation monitoring and landslide detection in the Luding seismic area and to investigate the small-scale landslide detection capability of LT-1 in vegetation-covered areas. The results show that LT-1 and Sentinel-1 identified 23 landslide hazards, and their obvious deformation and landslide characteristics indicate that they are still in an unstable state with a continuous deformation trend. At the same time, through the detection analysis of LT-1’s landslide detection capability under high vegetation cover and small-scale landslide detection capability, the results show that the long wavelength LT-1 can be more effective in landslide hazard identification and monitoring than the short wavelength, and LT-1 with high spatial resolution can be more refined to depict the landslide deformation characteristics in space, which demonstrates the great potential of LT-1 in the refinement of landslide detection. It shows the significant potential of the LT-1 satellite data in landslide detection. Finally, the effects of geometric distortion on landslide detection under different satellite orbits are analyzed, and it is necessary to adopt the combined monitoring method of elevating and lowering orbits for landslide detection to ensure the integrity and reliability of landslide detection. This study highlights the capability of the LT-1 satellite in monitoring landslides in complex mountainous terrain and underscores its potential for detecting small-scale landslides. The findings also offer valuable insights for future research on landslide detection using LT-1 data in similar challenging environments. Full article

Earthquakes remain among the most destructive natural hazards, causing severe loss of life and property in seismically active regions such as Nepal. Major events such as the 1934 Nepal–Bihar earthquake (M_w 8.2), the 2015 Gorkha earthquake (M_w 7.8), and the 2023 Jajarkot earthquake (M_L 6.4) have repeatedly exposed the vulnerability of Nepal’s built environment. In response, the Ready-to-Use Detailing (RUD) guideline (NBC 205:2024) was introduced to provide standardized structural detailing for low-rise reinforced concrete buildings without masonry infill, particularly for use in areas where access to professional engineering services is limited. This study was motivated by the need to critically assess the structural performance of buildings designed according to such rule-of-thumb detailing, which is widely applied through owner–builder practices. Nonlinear pushover analyses were carried out using finite element modelling for typical configurations on soil types C and D, under peak ground accelerations of 0.25 g, 0.30 g, 0.35 g, and 0.40 g. The response spectrum from NBC 105:2020 was adopted to determine performance points. The analysis focused on global response, capacity curves, storey drift, and hinge formation to evaluate structural resilience. The maximum story drift for the linear static analysis is found to be 0.56% and 0.86% for peak ground acceleration of 0.40 g, for both three and four-storied buildings. Also, from non-linear static analysis, it is found that almost all hinges formed in the beams and columns are in the Immediate Occupancy (IO) level. The findings suggest that the RUD guidelines are capable of providing adequate seismic performance for low-rise reinforced concrete buildings, given that the recommended material quality and construction standards are satisfied. Full article

Earthquake forecast and risk assessment are of key importance in reducing casualties and property losses. However, they have not been fully achieved due to the complexity of earthquakes. Numerous studies have explored the correspondence of the b-value with changes in effective stress, leveraging temporal and spatial variations to identify precursor characteristics of destructive events in both natural and induced seismic activities. However, robust interpretation of predictive b-values hinges on rigorous estimation, as biased results can mislead conclusions. This paper provides a comprehensive review of spatiotemporal b-value estimation methods alongside statistical significance tests. A pilot b-value analysis of natural earthquakes and induced seismicity manifested the valid impression. The expansion of monitoring datasets with the development of acquisition technology or dense array and advanced estimation methodology will augment the utility of b-value analysis in seismic research and hazard assessment. Full article

The dynamic environment of coastal regions subjects infrastructure to multiple interacting natural hazards, with the simultaneous occurrence of windstorms and earthquakes posing a particularly critical challenge. Unlike inland hazards, these coastal threats frequently exhibit irregular statistical behavior and terrain-induced anomalies. This study proposes a novel probabilistic framework to assess compound hazard effects, advancing beyond traditional single-hazard analyses. By integrating maximum entropy theory with bivariate Copula models, a unified return period analysis is developed to capture the joint probability structure of seismic and wind events. The model is calibrated using long-term observational data collected from a representative coastal zone since 2000. For the PGA marginal distribution, our sixth-moment maximum-entropy model achieved an R² of 0.90, compared with 0.57 for a conventional GEV fit—reflecting a 58% increase in explained variance. Analysis shows the progressive evolution of damage from slight damaged through moderate damaged and severe damaged to collapse for an 18-story reinforced concrete frame structure, and shows that the combined effect of seismic and wind loads results in risk probabilities of aforementioned damage state of approximately 2 × 10⁻³, 6 × 10⁻⁴, 2 × 10⁻⁴, and 3 × 10⁻⁵, respectively, under a 0.4 g ground motion and a concurrent wind speed of 15 m/s. Furthermore, when both the uncertainty of loss ratios and structural parameters are incorporated, the standard deviation of the economic loss ratio reaches up to 0.015 in the transition region (PGA 0.2–0.4 g), highlighting considerable variability in economic loss assessment, whereas the mean economic loss ratio rapidly saturates above 0.8 with increasing PGA. These findings demonstrate that uncertainty in economic loss is most pronounced within the transition region, while remaining much lower outside this zone. Overall, this study provides a robust framework and quantitative basis for comprehensive risk assessment and resilient design of coastal infrastructure under compound wind and seismic hazards. Full article

A framework for rapid seismic vulnerability assessment and disaster management of urban buildings was developed, incorporating structural information from Building Information Models (BIM) integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS). The Critical Seismic Wall Index (CSWI) was evaluated for 252 undamaged and damaged buildings and compared with their seismic performance analyses. The seismic vulnerability of these buildings was determined based on site-specific seismic hazard analysis and compared with each building’s CSWI. This study demonstrates the use of BIM within a GIS workflow to enable rapid wall index calculation. Building on previous research that identifies a Critical Seismic Wall Index (CSWI) of 0.0025 as an indicator of a building’s seismic vulnerability, it further proposes a CSWI threshold of 0.004 for buildings with structural irregularities, based on the analysis of the studied building. The implementation of the integrated BIM–GIS methodology could enable rapid risk and damage assessment, as demonstrated in the investigated case studies. This study is significant because it provides a model for quickly assessing the seismic vulnerability of buildings, supporting resilience planning and sustainability, particularly in earthquake-prone regions, by prioritizing seismic risk by identification of high-risk buildings for demolition and prioritization of retrofit. Full article

Seismic hazards in Thailand are frequently overlooked in disaster management planning, leading to insufficient research and significant economic losses during earthquake events. The 2014 Chiang Rai earthquake exposed critical vulnerabilities in Thailand’s building practices due to widespread non-compliance with building codes and limited preparedness. This exposure prompted the development of empirical vulnerability functions using loss data from 15,031 damaged residences. The study analyzed government compensation records, which were standardized using replacement cost metrics. Three distinct models were developed through probabilistic and possibilistic modeling approaches. Residual analysis demonstrated the superior performance of the possibilistic approach, with the Possibilistic-based Vulnerability Function achieving a 49.84% reduction in residuals for small loss predictions compared to probability-based models. The research findings indicate that possibility theory—capable of addressing multiple uncertainties—provided a more accurate representation of the observed losses. These results offer valuable guidance for enhancing seismic risk assessment and disaster preparedness strategies in local applications. Full article

Greece faces increasing exposure to natural hazards—particularly wildfires, floods, and earthquakes—driven by climatic, environmental, and spatial factors. This study systematically reviews 108 peer-reviewed publications and official reports, applying PRISMA methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of the national civil protection system. The analysis reveals localized progress, notably in earthquake preparedness due to strict building codes and centralized oversight, but also persistent systemic weaknesses. These include fragmented governance, coordination gaps across agencies, insufficient integration of spatial planning, limited local preparedness, and reactive approaches to disaster management. Case studies of major events, such as the 2018 Mati wildfires and 2023 Thessaly floods, underscore how communication breakdowns and delayed evacuations contribute to substantial human and economic losses. Promising developments—such as SMS-based early warning systems, joint training exercises, and pilot GIS risk-mapping tools—illustrate potential pathways for improvement, though their application remains uneven. Future priorities include strengthening unified command structures, enhancing prevention-oriented planning, investing in interoperable communication systems, and fostering community engagement. The findings position Greece’s civil protection as structurally capable of progress but in need of sustained, systemic reforms to build a resilient, prevention-focused framework for increasing disaster risks. Full article

This study explores the impact of the 2022 Mw 6.8 Luding Earthquake on various geo-hazards and their corresponding rainfall thresholds. Focusing on the seismic intensity VI zone in Sichuan Province, China, we analyzed 1979 geo-hazard records and hourly precipitation data from 475 stations between 2010 and 2024. Empirical ID (intensity–duration) and AC (accumulated rainfall–continuous rainfall duration) rainfall threshold models are established based on these datasets. By comparing pre- and post-earthquake data, this study assesses changes in the spatial distribution and triggering rainfall thresholds of landslides, rockfalls, and debris flows. The results indicate a significant increase in geo-hazard risks post-earthquake, particularly near the Xianshuihe Fault, with rockfall risks exhibiting the most pronounced rise. Statistical analysis reveals that the rainfall thresholds required to trigger geo-hazards decreased notably after the earthquake: ID models indicate a decrease of approximately 20%, while AC models show a reduction of about 20% in the western zone and 10% in the eastern zone. A four-level early warning system is developed using empirical rainfall threshold models, offering tailored hazard alerts for different regions and geo-hazard types. The variation in threshold values between the east and west zones highlights the influence of differing topographic and climatic conditions. These findings provide critical insights for post-seismic hazard assessment and inform more effective, sustainable early warnings, thereby supporting more reliable and sustainable disaster risk management in earthquake-affected regions. Full article

The failure of large gravity dams during an earthquake could lead to calamitous flooding, severe infrastructural damage, and massive environmental destruction. This paper aims to demonstrate reliable methods for evaluating dam performance after a seismic event. The work included a seismic hazard analysis and nonlinear finite element modelling of concrete cracking for two large dams (D1 and D2, of 35 and 90 m in height, respectively) in Eastern Canada. Dam D1 is located in Montreal, and Dam D2 is located in La Malbaie, Quebec. The modelling approach was validated using the Koyna Dam, which was subjected to the 1967 Mw 6.5 earthquake. This paper reports tensile cracks of D1 and D2 under combined hydrostatic and seismic loading. The latter was generated from ground motion records from 11 sites during the 1988 Mw 5.9 Saguenay earthquake. These records were each scaled to two times the design level. It is shown that D1 remained stable, with minor localised cracking, whereas D2 experienced widespread tensile damage, particularly at the crest and base under high-energy and transverse inputs. These findings highlight the influence of dam geometry and frequency characteristics on seismic performance. The analysis and modelling procedures reported can be adopted for seismic risk classification and safety compliance verification of other dams and for recommendations such as monitoring and upgrading. Full article

The Tokara Islands, a volcanic archipelago located south of Japan’s main islands, experienced earthquake swarm activity in 2025. Public concern has emerged regarding the potential triggering of the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake, which the Japan Meteorological Agency has dismissed; however, the underlying mechanisms of this seismic activity remain inadequately explained. This study employs Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) to characterise the statistical properties of the swarm and compare them with historical patterns. Earthquake intervals followed exponential distributions, but swarm events exhibited distinctive short intervals that clearly distinguished them from background seismicity. Similarly, whilst earthquake magnitudes conformed to normal distributions, swarm events demonstrated low mean values and reduced variability, characteristics markedly different from regional background activity. The frequency and magnitude distributions of the 2025 swarm demonstrate remarkable similarity to two previous swarms that occurred in 2021. All the episodes coincided with volcanic activity at Suwanose Island, located approximately 10 km from the epicentral region, suggesting a causal relationship between magmatic processes and seismic activity. Statistical analysis reveals that the earthquake swarm exhibits exceptionally low magnitude scale, characteristics consistent with magma-driven seismicity rather than tectonic stress accumulation. The parameter contrasted markedly with pre-seismic conditions observed before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, where it was substantially elevated. Our findings indicate that the current seismic activity represents localised volcanic-related processes rather than precursory behaviour associated with major tectonic earthquakes. These results demonstrate the utility of statistical seismology in distinguishing between volcanic and tectonic seismic processes for hazard assessment purposes. Full article

Precise classification of landslide types is critical for targeted hazard mitigation, although the absence of type-specific classifications in many existing inventories limits their utility for effective risk management. This study develops a transferable machine learning approach to identify cliff-type landslides from unclassified records, with a focus on earthquake-prone regions. Using the Forest-based and Boosted Classification and Regression (FBCR) tools in ArcGIS Pro, a model was trained on 167 landslide points and 167 non-landslide points from Tokushima Prefecture, Japan. The model achieved high predictive performance, with 84% accuracy and sensitivity, an F1 score of 84%, and a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.68. The trained model was applied to the Kegalle District, Sri Lanka, and validated against a recently updated inventory specifying landslide types, resulting in an accuracy of 80.1%. It also enabled retrospective identification of cliff-type landslides in older inventories, providing valuable insights for early hazard assessment. Spatial analysis showed strong correspondence between predicted cliff-type zones and key conditioning factors, including specific elevation ranges, steep slopes, high soil thickness, and proximity to roads and buildings. This study integrates FBCR-based modelling with a cross-regional application framework for cliff-type landslide classification, offering a practical, transferable tool for refining inventories, guiding countermeasures, and improving preparedness in regions with similar geomorphological and seismic settings. Full article

This study investigates cross-border cascading hazards and infrastructure vulnerabilities in the Sava River Basin, a seismically active and flood-prone region spanning the Slovenia–Croatia border. Conducted within the CROSScade project, the research focuses on assessing cross-border hazards and the vulnerabilities of levees and bridges. Key earthquake and flood scenarios were identified using advanced hydraulic and seismic modelling, forming the basis for evaluating the cascading effects of these events, including the potential failure of hydropower plants and associated flood protection systems. The analysis reveals that levees are particularly vulnerable to failure during the recession phase of flooding that follows an earthquake. At the same time, bridges are primarily affected by seismic loading, with minimal structural impact from flood forces. These findings underscore the pressing need for enhanced cross-border collaboration, updated design standards, and the reinforcement of critical infrastructure. The study provides essential insights for multi-hazard resilience planning and emphasises the importance of integrated risk assessments in managing cascading disaster impacts across national boundaries. Full article

Earthquake-triggered landslides pose significant hazards to lives and infrastructure. While existing seismic landslide models primarily focus on seismic and terrain variables, they often overlook the dynamic nature of hydrologic conditions, such as seasonal soil moisture variability. This study addresses this gap by incorporating satellite-based soil moisture data from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the assessment of seismic landslide occurrence. Using landslide inventories from five major earthquakes (Nepal 2015, New Zealand 2016, Papua New Guinea 2018, Indonesia 2018, and Haiti 2021), a balanced global dataset of landslide and non-landslide cases was compiled. Exploratory analysis revealed a strong association between elevated pre-event soil moisture and increased landslide occurrence, supporting its relevance in seismic slope failure. Moreover, a Random Forest model was trained and tested on the dataset and demonstrated excellent predictive performance. To assess the generalizability of the model, a leave-one-earthquake-out cross-validation approach was also implemented, in which the model trained on four events was tested on the fifth. This approach outperformed comparable models that did not consider soil moisture, such as the United States Geological Survey (USGS) seismic landslide model, confirming the added value of satellite-based soil moisture data in improving seismic landslide susceptibility assessments. Full article