Search Results (2,666)

Against the backdrop of the “dual circulation” development pattern and the in-depth advancement of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the interconnection between China and global financial markets has significantly intensified. The spatio-temporal correlation risks faced in cross-border investment activities have become highly complex, posing a severe challenge to traditional investment risk prediction methods. Existing research has three limitations: first, traditional analytical tools struggle to capture the dynamic spatio-temporal correlations among financial markets; second, mainstream deep learning models lack the ability to directly output interpretable economic parameters; third, the uncertainty of model prediction results has not been systematically quantified for a long time, leading to a lack of credibility assessment in practical applications. To address these issues, this study constructs a spatio-temporal graph convolutional neural network panel regression model (STGCN-PDR) that incorporates uncertainty quantification. This model innovatively designs a hybrid architecture of “one layer of spatial graph convolution + two layers of temporal convolution”, modeling the spatial dependencies among global stock markets through graph networks and capturing the dynamic evolution patterns of market fluctuations with temporal convolutional networks. It particularly embeds an interpretable regression layer, enabling the model to directly output regression coefficients with economic significance, significantly enhancing the decision-making reference value of risk prediction. By designing multi-round random initialization perturbation experiments and introducing the coefficient of variation index to quantify the stability of model parameters, it achieves a systematic assessment of prediction uncertainty. Empirical results based on stock index data from 20 countries show that compared with the benchmark models, STGCN-PDR demonstrates significant advantages in both spatio-temporal feature extraction efficiency and risk prediction accuracy, providing a more interpretable and reliable quantitative analysis tool for cross-border investment decisions in complex market environments. Full article

Reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions will require broad deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS), yet significant challenges remain. This paper reviews the main barriers that may hinder or delay widespread CCS adoption, drawing on current projects in various stages of planning, construction, and development. The discussion focuses on technical, economic, social, and regulatory aspects of CCS and identifies several key obstacles. These include the high financial burden on energy production, persistent uncertainties about the long-term behavior of stored CO₂, and the complexity of the regulatory framework governing CCS projects and CO₂ pipelines. Carbon capture, use, and storage (CCUS) remains a major focus of attention in the petroleum industry due to its potential to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or prevent future emissions. Despite this potential, challenges and risks continue to limit progress. Full article

Strategic fleet renewal represents a fundamental challenge for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and public entities seeking to align their operational objectives with sustainable mobility practices. This paper proposes a hybrid decision support model based on fuzzy logic, combining the Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method with the Fleet Renewal Priority Index (FRPI). The model evaluates and prioritizes different vehicle alternatives based on multiple economic, environmental, and operational criteria, including total cost of operation, CO₂ emissions, maintenance, autonomy, infrastructure compatibility, and energy independence. The criteria are evaluated by linguistic judgments converted into triangular fuzzy numbers (TFN), allowing uncertainty and subjectivity to be addressed. A simulated case study illustrates the application of the model, identifying the vehicles most aligned with a sustainability and efficiency strategy, as well as those that present a greater urgency for replacement. The results demonstrate the potential of the approach to support rational, transparent and sustainable decisions in fleet modernization. Full article

Traffic congestion remains a major urban challenge, impacting economic productivity, environmental sustainability, and commuter well-being. This systematic review investigates how artificial intelligence (AI) techniques contribute to detecting traffic congestion. Following the SPAR-4-SLR protocol, we analyzed 44 peer-reviewed studies covering three data categories—spatiotemporal, probe, and hybrid/multimodal—and four AI model types—shallow machine learning (SML), deep learning (DL), probabilistic reasoning (PR), and hybrid approaches. Each model category was evaluated against metrics such as accuracy, the F1-score, computational efficiency, and deployment feasibility. Our findings reveal that SML techniques, particularly decision trees combined with optical flow, are optimal for real-time, low-resource applications. CNN-based DL models excel in handling unstructured and variable environments, while hybrid models offer improved robustness through multimodal data fusion. Although PR methods are less common, they add value when integrated with other paradigms to address uncertainty. This review concludes that no single AI approach is universally the best; rather, model selection should be aligned with the data type, application context, and operational constraints. This study offers actionable guidance for researchers and practitioners aiming to build scalable, context-aware AI systems for intelligent traffic management. Full article

Under the background of uncertainty brought by the rapid development of AI, participation in AI standardisation is becoming the key for strategic emerging enterprises (SEEs) to break through and achieve sustainable development. This paper selects listed SEEs from the China Strategic Emerging Industries Composite Index jointly issued by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. and the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2017 as the initial sample. We collect 3430 observations from 380 companies spanning 2010 to 2023. This paper employs a two-way fixed effects model incorporating enterprise clustering. It thoroughly investigates and empirically tests how participation in AI standardisation affects the sustainable development of SEEs under uncertainty. It is found that participation in AI standardisation in the context of uncertainty has a significant positive effect on the sustainable development of SEEs, and this conclusion still holds after employing instrumental variables, difference-in-difference, and a series of robustness tests. Mechanism tests indicate that two transmission paths exist between participation in AI standardisation and the sustainable development of SEEs under uncertainty: digital technology innovation and the dynamic capabilities in the dimensions of learning and absorption as well as change and reconfiguration. However, the dynamic capabilities in the coordination and integration dimensions do not play a significant mediating role. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that participation in AI standardisation contributes more significantly to the sustainable development of SEEs that are not state-owned, face lower environmental and information uncertainty, and are under higher economic policy uncertainty. The findings enrich the research related to AI standardisation and firm sustainability and provide policy recommendations for the sustainable development of SEEs in the context of uncertainty. Full article

This systematic review examines the methodologies and applications of integrated risk indicators in positron emission tomography (PET) radiopharmaceutical production, focusing on occupational, technological, and environmental risks. Conducted in accordance with PRISMA 2020 guidelines and utilizing the Ryyan software 2023 for article screening, the review synthesizes findings from 70 studies published between 2020 and 2025 in English and Spanish, including articles, conference papers, and reviews. The review was registered on PROSPERO (CRD420251078221). Key disciplines contributing to risk assessment frameworks include environmental science, occupational health and safety, civil engineering, mining engineering, maritime safety, financial/economic risk, and systems engineering. Predominant risk assessment methods identified are probabilistic modeling (e.g., Monte Carlo simulations), machine learning (e.g., neural networks), multi-criteria decision-making (e.g., AHP and TOPSIS), and failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), each offering strengths, such as uncertainty quantification and systematic hazard identification, alongside limitations like data dependency and subjectivity. The review explores how frameworks from other industries can be adapted to address PET-specific risks, such as radiation exposure to workers, equipment failure, and waste management, and how studies integrate these factors into unified risk indicators using weighted scoring, probabilistic methods, and fuzzy logic. Gaps in the literature include limited stakeholder engagement, lack of standardized frameworks, insufficient real-time monitoring, and under-represented environmental risks. Future research directions propose developing PET-specific tools, integrating AI and IoT for real-time data, establishing standardized frameworks, and expanding environmental assessments to enhance risk management in PET radiopharmaceutical production. This review highlights the interdisciplinary nature of risk assessment and the critical need for comprehensive, tailored approaches to ensure safety and sustainability in this field. Full article

Groundwater resource management involves complex socio-hydrological systems characterized by dynamic feedback, uncertainty, and common misconceptions among decision-makers. While deterministic models like MODFLOW simulate physical hydrology effectively, they fall short in capturing the social, legal, and behavioral dynamics shaping groundwater use. System dynamics (SD) modeling offers a robust alternative by incorporating feedback loops, delays, and nonlinearities. Yet, model conceptualization remains one of the most challenging steps in SD practice. Experienced modelers often apply a “Lego-like” approach—assembling new models from pre-validated sub-models. However, this strategy depends on access to well-documented sub-model libraries, which are typically unavailable to newcomers. To address this barrier, we systematically review and classify socio-economic sub-models from existing groundwater SD literature, organizing them by system archetypes and generic structures. The resulting modular library offers a practical resource that supports newcomers in building structured, scalable models. This approach improves conceptual clarity, enhances model reusability, and facilitates faster development of SD models tailored to groundwater systems. The study concludes by identifying directions for future research, including expanding the sub-model library, clarifying criteria for base-model selection, improving integration methods, and applying these approaches through diverse case studies to further strengthen the robustness and utility of groundwater SD modeling. Full article

The article presents an analysis of current (during the period 1985–2022) and projected (during the period 2025–2099) changes in the hydrological regime of the Buktyrma, Yesil, and Zhaiyk river basins in Kazakhstan under the conditions of global climate change. This study is based on the integration of data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the sixth phase of the CMIP6 project, socio-economic development scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, as well as the results of hydrological modelling using the SWIM model. The studies were carried out with an integrated approach to hydrological change assessment, taking into account scenario modelling, uncertainty analysis and the use of bias correction methods for climate data. A calculation method was used to analyse the intra-annual distribution of runoff, taking into account climate change. Detailed forecasts of changes in runoff and intra-annual water distribution up to the end of the 21st century for key water bodies in Kazakhstan were obtained. While the projections of river flow and hydrological parameters under CMIP6 scenarios are actively pursued worldwide, few studies have explicitly focused on forecasting intra-annual flow distribution in Central Asia, calculated using a methodology appropriate for this region and using CMIP6 ensemble scenarios. There have been studies on changes in the intra-annual distribution of runoff for individual river basins or local areas, but for the historical period, there have also been studies on modelling runoff forecasts using CMIP6 climate models, but have been very few systematic publications on the distribution of predicted intra-annual runoff in Central Asia, and this issue has not been fully studied. The projections suggest an intensification of flow seasonality (1), earlier flood peaks (2), reduced summer discharges (3) and an increased likelihood of extreme hydrological events under future climatic conditions. Changes in the seasonal structure of river flow in Central Asia are caused by both climatic factors—temperature, precipitation and glacier degradation—and significant anthropogenic influences, including irrigation and water management structures. These changes directly affect the risks of flooding and water shortages, as well as the adaptive capacity of water management systems. Given the high level of water management challenges and interregional conflicts over water use, the intra-annual distribution of runoff is important for long-term planning, the development of adaptation measures, and the formulation of public policy on sustainable water management in the face of growing climate challenges. This is critically important for water, agricultural, energy, and environmental planning in a region that already faces annual water management challenges and conflicts due to the uneven seasonal distribution of resources. Full article

Understanding rural communities’ perceptions of the health impacts of extreme weather is vital for strengthening community resilience and adaptation strategies. This paper aimed to collate existing evidence on the perceptions of rural Australians regarding the health impacts of extreme weather events. A scoping review following PRISMA-ScR guidelines was conducted. Peer-reviewed empirical articles published up to 7 May 2025 were identified from Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science. One author undertook two-step screening and data extraction, which was checked by another author, and data were analysed using a thematic approach. Of 242 non-duplicate articles screened, 34 were included, which discussed drought (n = 14), bushfire (n = 8), flood (n = 6), extreme heat (n = 4) or a combination of events (n = 2). Two main themes arose: (1) perceived severity, frequency and duration of extreme weather events; and (2) perceptions of health impacts. The second theme comprised six subthemes: mental health risks, social disconnectedness, disrupted connection to land, distress due to uncertainties, community resilience, and disproportionate effects on vulnerable groups. Evidence gaps included a lack of perspectives separated by gender and age and a shortage of voices of socio-economically disadvantaged groups. Future research should investigate how to understand rural communities’ resilience to develop targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies. Full article

To mitigate the risks posed by uncertainties in renewable energy output and Electric Vehicle (EV) travel patterns on the scheduling of Virtual Power Plants (VPPs), this paper proposes an optimal scheduling model for a VPP incorporating EVs based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT). First, a Monte Carlo load forecasting model is established based on the behavioral characteristics of EV users, and a Sigmoid function is introduced to quantify the dynamic relationship between user response willingness and VPP incentive prices. Second, within the VPP framework, an economic optimal scheduling model considering multi-source collaboration is developed by integrating wind power, photovoltaics, gas turbines, energy storage systems, and EV clusters with Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) capabilities. Subsequently, to address the uncertain parameters within the model, IGDT is employed to construct a bi-level decision-making mechanism that encompasses both risk-averse and opportunity-seeking strategies. Finally, a case study on a VPP is conducted to verify the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively achieve a 7.94% reduction in the VPP’s comprehensive dispatch cost under typical scenarios, exhibiting superiority in terms of both economy and stability. Full article

In confronting escalating economic uncertainty, achieving a win–win situation for low-carbon transition and improved employment structure will contribute to economic recovery and sustainable growth but also contribute to building a community with a shared future for mankind. A critical issue for China’s economy and societal welfare, as well as a core component of sustainable development, concerns whether low-carbon economic transition influences employment skill structure. This study utilizes data from 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 2006 to 2021. Employing the entropy method, a low-carbon economic development level indicator system was constructed from four aspects: low-carbon output, low-carbon consumption, low-carbon resources, and low-carbon environment to measure the low-carbon economy and explore its direct and indirect effects on employment skill structure and spatial effects. The research findings indicate that low-carbon economies not only directly and significantly promote employment skill structure optimization but also indirectly generate promotional effects through pathways such as industrial structure adjustment, green innovation’s innovative effects, and factor substitution effects of increased pollution control investment. Among these, the indirect impact of industrial structure adjustment contributes most substantially. Low-carbon economies’ influence on employment skill structures exhibits spatial spillover effects, with neighboring regions’ low-carbon economies exerting positive spillover effects on local skill structures. Additionally, significant negative interdependence exists among regional employment skill structures. Based on the aforementioned research conclusions, the following recommendations are proposed: accelerate low-carbon economy development and employment skill structure enhancement in central and western regions to diminish regional disparities; encourage green innovation and promote traditional industry upgrading and transformation; formulate regional coordinated development plans, thereby strengthening the low-carbon economy’s optimizing role upon employment skills structure; and increase educational investment and strengthen labor skill training. Full article

Urban areas face significant challenges from heat islands, stormwater, and air pollution, yet green roof adoption is hindered by feasibility and economic uncertainties. This study proposes an integrated framework to optimize green roof strategies for urban sustainability. We combine deep learning for rooftop suitability screening, comprehensive ecosystem service valuation, life-cycle cost–benefit analysis under varying policy scenarios, and ENVI-met microclimate simulations across Local Climate Zones (LCZ). Using Dalian’s core urban districts as a case study, our findings reveal that all three green roof types (extensive, semi-intensive, and intensive) are economically viable when policy incentives and ecological values are fully internalized. Under the ideal scenario, intensive roofs yielded the highest long-term returns with a payback period of 4 years, while semi-intensive roofs achieved the greatest cost-effectiveness (BCR = 4.57) and the shortest payback period of 3 years; extensive roofs also reached break-even within 4 years. In contrast, under the realistic market-only scenario, only intensive roofs approached break-even with an extended payback period of 23 years, whereas extensive and semi-intensive systems remained unprofitable. Cooling performance varies by LCZ and roof type, emphasizing the critical role of urban morphology. This transferable framework provides robust data-driven decision support for green infrastructure planning and targeted policymaking in high-density urban environments. Full article

This study assessed ten alternatives, comprising nine power generation technologies and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), using a combined hybrid approach based on group Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods. Specifically, AHP was employed for determining criteria weights, while fuzzy VIKOR was utilised for ranking the alternatives. Six electricity sector experts evaluated each technology, organised within a hierarchical decision model that included four main criteria: economic, environmental, technical, and social, along with 13 subcriteria. To mitigate subjectivity in criteria weights stemming from diverse expert backgrounds, a consensus technique was implemented post-AHP. Fuzzy VIKOR was employed to address uncertainty in expert ratings. The findings revealed a significant preference towards renewable technologies, with Photovoltaic (PV) and Wind at the forefront, whereas Coal occupied the lowest position. A validation process was conducted using BWM for criteria weights and fuzzy TOPSIS for ranking alternatives. This hybrid soft computing method’s key contributions include its modular design, allowing for the sequential determination of criteria weights, followed by the calculation of alternative rankings, fostering interactive and collaborative evaluations of various energy mixes by expert groups. Additionally, the study evaluated three emerging energy technologies: BESS, Small Modular Nuclear Reactors (SMRs), and Hydrogen, highlighting their potential in the evolving energy landscape. Full article

Agri-Environmental Schemes (AESs) are widely used policy tools designed to promote environmental sustainability in agriculture. While their ecological and economic impacts have been extensively studied, the social dimension, particularly their effects on farmers’ mental health, remains notably under-researched, despite the central role of social sustainability in broader sustainability frameworks. This study explores how AESs may influence farmer mental health, drawing on qualitative data from 26 semi-structured interviews with professionals involved in the design, delivery, and evaluation of AESs in France and Ireland. While some positive effects were reported, such as enhanced self-worth, increased motivation, and reduced social isolation through peer discussion groups, participants also highlighted significant stressors. These included administrative burdens, inspection-related anxiety, and financial uncertainty, which in some cases exacerbated existing psychological distress. Discussion groups emerged as a particularly effective mechanism for fostering social connection and emotional resilience, especially in the Irish context. The findings underscore the need to integrate social indicators, particularly mental health, into the design and evaluation of AESs. Enhancing the social sustainability of these schemes may improve both farmer well-being and scheme uptake, suggesting a more holistic approach to agri-environmental policy is warranted. Full article

Accurate prediction and management of the service life of buildings and structural components are crucial for ensuring durability and economic efficiency. This paper investigates both discrete- and continuous-time Markov chains as probabilistic models for representing deterioration processes of building structures. Transition probabilities, fundamental matrices, and absorption times are computed to quantify expected lifespans and degradation pathways. Numerical simulations illustrate how state probabilities evolve, inevitably converging toward structural failure in the absence of maintenance interventions. Additionally, this study explicitly addresses uncertainties inherent in lifecycle predictions through the application of fuzzy set theory. A fuzzy Markov chain model is formulated to represent imprecise deterioration states and transition probabilities, which validate the predictable yet uncertain progression of structural deterioration through graphical analyses and fuzzy simulations. The proposed methodology, including fuzzy modeling, provides building managers and engineers with a robust analytical framework to optimize maintenance scheduling, refurbishment planning, and resource allocation for sustainable lifecycle management under uncertainty. Full article