Search Results (48)

Vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is frequently used to assess the impact of climate change on wildfires, vegetation, and other phenomena dependent on atmospheric moisture. A common aim of projection studies is to sample the full range of changes projected by climate models. Although characterization of model spread in projected temperature and rainfall is common, similar analyses are lacking for VPD. Here, we analyze the range of change in projected VPD from a 15-member CMIP6 model ensemble using the SSP-370 scenario. Projected changes are calculated for 2015–2100 relative to the historical period 1850–2014, and the resulting changes are analyzed on a seasonal and regional basis, the latter using continents based on IPCC reference regions. We find substantial regional differences including higher increases in VPD in areas towards the equatorial regions, indicating increased vulnerability to climate change in these areas. Seasonal assessments reveal that regions in the Northern Hemisphere experience peak VPD changes in summer (JJA), correlating with higher temperatures and lower relative humidity, while Southern Hemisphere areas like South America see notable increases in all seasons. We find that the mean projected change in seasonal VPD ranges from 0.02–0.23 kPa in Europe, 0.04–0.19 kPa in Asia, 0.02–0.16 kPa in North America, 0.15–0.33 kPa in South America, 0.10–0.18 kPa in Oceania, and 0.21–0.31 kPa in Africa. Our analysis suggests that for most regions, no two models span the range of projected change in VPD for all seasons. The overall projected change space for VPD identified here can be used to interpret existing studies and support model selection for future climate change impact assessments that seek to span this range. Full article

Efficient utilization of wind energy resources, including advances in weather and seasonal forecasting and climate projections, is imperative for the sustainable progress of wind power generation. Although temperature and precipitation data receive considerable attention in interannual variability and seasonal forecasting studies, there is a notable gap in exploring correlations between climate indices and wind speeds. This paper proposes the use of an ensemble of artificial neural networks to forecast wind speeds based on climate oscillation indices and assesses its performance. An initial examination indicates a correlation signal between the climate indices and wind speeds of ERA5 for the selected case study in eastern Canada. Forecasts are made for the season April–May–June (AMJ) and are based on most correlated climate indices of preceding seasons. A pointwise forecast is conducted with a 20-member ensemble, which is verified by leave-on-out cross-validation. The results obtained are analyzed in terms of root mean squared error, bias, and skill score, and they show competitive performance with state-of-the-art numerical wind predictions from SEAS5, outperforming them in several regions. A relatively simple model with a single unit in the hidden layer and a regularization rate of ${10}^{-2}$ provides promising results, especially in areas with a higher number of indices considered. This study adds to global efforts to enable more accurate forecasting by introducing a novel approach. Full article

Terrestrial and satellite communications, tactical data links, positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT), as well as distributed sensing will continue to require precise timing and the ability to synchronize and disseminate time effectively. However, the supply of space-qualified clocks that meet Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)-level performance standards is limited. As the awareness of potential disruptions to GNSS due to adversarial actions grows, the current reliance on GNSS-level timing appears costly and outdated. This is especially relevant given the benefits of developing robust and stable time scale references in orbit, especially as various alternatives to GNSS are being explored. The onboard realization of clock ensembles is particularly promising for applications such as those providing the on-demand dissemination of a reference time scale for navigation services via a proliferated Low-Earth Orbit (pLEO) constellation. This article investigates potential inter-satellite network architectures for coordinating time and frequency across pLEO platforms. These architectures dynamically allocate radio resources for clock data transport based on the requirements for pLEO time scale formations. Additionally, this work proposes a model-based control system for wireless networked timekeeping systems. It envisions the optimal placement of critical information concerning the implicit ensemble mean (IEM) estimation across a multi-platform clock ensemble, which can offer better stability than relying on any single ensemble member. This approach aims to reduce data traffic flexibly. By making the IEM estimation sensor more intelligent and running it on the anchor platform while also optimizing the steering of remote frequency standards on participating platforms, the networked control system can better predict the future behavior of local reference clocks paired with low-noise oscillators. This system would then send precise IEM estimation information at critical moments to ensure a common pLEO time scale is realized across all participating platforms. Clock steering is essential for establishing these time scales, and the effectiveness of the realization depends on the selected control intervals and steering techniques. To enhance performance reliability beyond what the existing Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) control technique can provide, the minimal-cost-variance (MCV) control theory is proposed for clock steering operations. The steering process enabled by the MCV control technique significantly impacts the overall performance reliability of the time scale, which is generated by the onboard ensemble of compact, lightweight, and low-power clocks. This is achieved by minimizing the variance of the chi-squared random performance of LQG control while maintaining a constraint on its mean. Full article

In Portugal, maize is a major crop, occupying about 40% of the cereals area. The present study aimed to assess future bioclimatic conditions that could affect maize production in Portugal. For this purpose, a set of indicators was selected including dry spells (DSs) and the aridity index (AI). Two additional indicators were included, one related to the soil water reservoir available for maize (RAW) and the other related to the maize thermal unit (MTU), which were designed to assess the suitability of land for growing different varieties of maize. The analysis focused on historical (1971–2000) and future (2011–2070; 2041–2070; 2071–2100) climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using a four-member ensemble of global climate models. The results for the more distant and severe scenario suggest that there will be an overall increasing tendency in the AI, i.e., higher aridity, namely in the southern part of Portugal compared to the north (0.65 vs. 0.45). The soils in the south are characterized by a lower average RAW (<35 mm) than in the north (>50 mm), which leads to a lower irrigation frequency requirement in the north. As a result of the increased MTU, maize production will shift, allowing for varieties with higher thermal requirements and the conversion of areas traditionally used for silage maize to grain maize production areas. Adaptation measures to improve the climate resilience of maize are discussed. Full article

This work aims to examine the effect of bias correction (BC) methods on the development of Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves under climate change at multiple temporal scales. Daily outputs from a 9-member CORDEX-CA GCM-RCM multi-model ensemble (MME) under RCP 8.5 were used to represent future precipitation. Two stationary BC methods, empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and gamma-pareto quantile mapping (GPM), along with three non-stationary BC methods, detrended quantile mapping (DQM), quantile delta mapping (QDM), and robust quantile mapping (RQM), were selected to adjust daily biases between MME members and observations from the SJO weather station located in Costa Rica. The equidistant quantile-matching (EDQM) temporal disaggregation method was applied to obtain future sub-daily annual maximum precipitation series (AMPs) based on daily projections from the bias-corrected ensemble members. Both historical and future IDF curves were developed based on 5 min temporal resolution AMP series using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The results indicate that projected future precipitation intensities (2020–2100) vary significantly from historical IDF curves (1970–2020), depending on individual GCM-RCMs, BC methods, durations, and return periods. Regardless of stationarity, the ensemble spread increases steadily with the return period, as uncertainties are further amplified with increasing return periods. Stationary BC methods show a wide variety of trends depending on individual GCM-RCM models, many of which are unrealistic and physically improbable. In contrast, non-stationary BC methods generally show a tendency towards higher precipitation intensities as the return period increases for individual GCM-RCMs, despite differences in the magnitude of changes. Precipitation intensities based on ensemble means are found to increase with the change factor (CF), ranging between 2 and 25% depending on the temporal scale, return period, and non-stationary BC method, with moderately smaller increases for short-durations and long-durations, and slightly higher for mid-durations. In summary, it can be concluded that stationary BC methods underperform compared to non-stationary BC methods. DQM and RQM are the most suitable BC methods for generating future IDF curves, recommending the use of ensemble means over ensemble medians or individual GCM-RCM outcomes. Full article

We describe enhancements to an operational forecast system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the prediction of high-impact weather events affecting power utilities, particularly conditions conducive to wildfires. The system was developed for Pacific Gas and Electric Corporation (PG&E) to forecast conditions in Northern and Central California for critical decision-making such as proactively de-energizing selected circuits within the power grid. WRF forecasts are routinely produced on a 2 km grid, and the results are used as input to wildfire fuel moisture, fire probability, wildfire spread, and outage probability models. This forecast system produces skillful real-time forecasts while achieving an optimal blend of model resolution and ensemble size appropriate for today’s computational resources afforded to utilities. Numerous experiments were performed with different model settings, grid spacing, and ensemble configuration to develop an operational forecast system optimized for skill and cost. Dry biases were reduced by leveraging a new irrigation scheme, while wind skill was improved through a novel approach involving the selection of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members used to drive WRF. We hope that findings in this study can help other utilities (especially those with similar weather impacts) improve their own forecast system. Full article

The maize Snf2 gene family plays a crucial role in chromatin remodeling and response to environmental stresses. In this study, we identified and analyzed 35 members of the maize Snf2 gene family (ZmCHR1 to ZmCHR35) using the Ensembl Plants database. Each protein contained conserved SNF2-N and Helicase-C domains. Phylogenetic analysis revealed six groups among the Snf2 proteins, with an uneven distribution across subfamilies. Physicochemical analysis indicated that the Snf2 proteins are hydrophilic, with varied amino acid lengths, isoelectric points, and molecular weights, and are predominantly localized in the nucleus. Chromosomal mapping showed that these genes are distributed across all ten maize chromosomes. Gene structure analysis revealed diverse exon–intron arrangements, while motif analysis identified 20 conserved motifs. Collinearity analysis highlighted gene duplication events, suggesting purifying selection. Cis-regulatory element analysis suggested involvement in abiotic and biotic stress responses. Expression analysis indicated tissue-specific expression patterns and differential expression under various stress conditions. Specifically, qRT-PCR validation under drought stress showed that certain Snf2 genes were upregulated at 12 h and downregulated at 24 h, revealing potential roles in drought tolerance. These findings provide a foundation for further exploration of the functional roles of the maize Snf2 gene family in development and stress responses. Full article

The supply of livestock products depends on many internal and external factors. Omitting any one factor can make it difficult to describe the market patterns. So, forecasting livestock indexes such as prices and supplies is challenging due to the effect of unknown factors. This paper proposes a Stacking Forest Ensemble method (SFE-NET) to forecast pork supply by considering both internal and external factors, thereby contributing to sustainable pork production. We first analyze the internal factors to explore features related to pork supply. External factors such as weather conditions, gas prices, and disease information are also collected from different sources. The combined dataset is from 2016 to 2022. Our SFE-NET method utilizes Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost as members and a neural network as the meta-method. We conducted seven experiments for daily, weekly, and monthly pork supply using different sets of factors, such as internal, internal and external, and selected. The results showed the following findings: (a) The proposed method achieved Coefficient of Determination scores between 84% and 91% in short and long periods, (b) the external factors increased the performance of forecasting methods by about 2% to 12%, and (c) the proposed stacking ensemble method outperformed other comparative methods by 1% to 18%. These improvements in forecasting accuracy can help promote more sustainable pork production by enhancing market stability and resilience. Full article

This paper proposes a new post-processing method for model data in order to improve typhoon track and rainfall forecasts. The model data used in the article include low-resolution ensemble forecasts and high-resolution forecasts. The entire improvement method contains the following three steps. The first step is to correct the typhoon track forecast: three ensemble member optimization methods are applied to the low-resolution ensemble forecasts, and then the best optimization method is selected with the principle of the smallest average distance error. The results of rainfall forecasts show that the corrected rainfall forecast performs better than the original forecasts. The second step is to derive the high-resolution probability rainfall forecast: the neighborhood method is applied to the deterministic high-resolution rainfall forecast. The last step is to correct the typhoon rainfall forecast: the low- and high-resolution forecasts are blended using the probability-matching method with two different schemes. The results show that the forecasts of the two schemes perform better than the original forecast under all rainfall thresholds and all forecast lead times. In terms of bias score, a rain forecast from one scheme corrects the rainfall deviation from observation better for light and moderate rainfall, whereas a rain forecast from another scheme corrects the rainfall deviation better for heavy and torrential rainfall. The better performance of corrected rain forecasts in the case of Typhoon Lekima and Rumbia over eastern China is demonstrated. Full article

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are characterized by robust vortical motion and intense thermodynamic processes, often causing damage in coastal cities as they result in landfall. Accurately estimating the ensemble mean of TC precipitation is critical for forecasting and remains a foremost global challenge. In this study, we develop an ensemble algorithm based on the feature-oriented mean (FM) suitable for spatially discrete variables in precipitation ensembles. This method can adjust the locations of ensemble precipitation fields to reduce the location-related deviations among ensemble members, ultimately enhancing the ensemble mean forecast skill for TC precipitation. To evaluate the feasibility of the FM in TC precipitation ensemble forecasting, 18 landing TC cases in China from 2019 to 2021 were selected for validation. For precipitation forecasts of the landing TCs with a varying leading time, we conducted a comprehensive quantitative evaluation and comparison of the precipitation forecast skills of the FM and arithmetic mean (AM) algorithms. The results indicate that the field adjustment algorithm in the FM can effectively align with the TC precipitation structure and the location of the ensemble mean, reducing the spatial divergence among precipitation fields. The FM method demonstrates superior performance in the equitable threat score, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio compared with the AM, exhibiting an overall improvement of around 10%. Furthermore, the FM ensemble mean shows a higher pattern of the correlation coefficient with observations and has a smaller root mean square error than the AM ensemble mean, signifying that the FM method can better preserve the characteristics of the precipitation structure. Additionally, an object-based diagnostic evaluation method was used to verify forecast results, and the results suggest that the attribute distribution of FM forecast objects more closely resembles that of observed precipitation objects (including the area, longitudinal and latitudinal centroid locations, axis angle, and aspect ratio). Full article

Snow cover plays a crucial role in the surface energy balance and hydrology and serves as a key indicator of climate change. In this study, we conducted an ensemble simulation comprising 48 members generated by randomly combining the parameterizations of five physical processes within the Noah-MP model. Utilizing the variance-based Sobol total sensitivity index, we quantified the sensitivity of regional-scale snow depth simulations to parameterization schemes. Additionally, we analyzed the spatial patterns of the parameterization sensitivities and assessed the uncertainty of the multi-parameterization scheme ensemble simulation. The results demonstrated that the differences in snow depth simulation results among the 48 scheme combinations were more pronounced in mountain regions, with melting mechanisms being the primary factor contributing to uncertainty in ensemble simulation. Contrasting mountain regions, the sensitivity index for the physical process of partitioning precipitation into rainfall and snowfall was notably higher in basin areas. Unexpectedly, the sensitivity index of the lower boundary condition of the physical process of soil temperature was negligible across the entire region. Surface layer drag coefficient and snow surface albedo parameterization schemes demonstrated meaningful sensitivity in localized areas, while the sensitivity index of the first snow layer or soil temperature time scheme exhibited a high level of sensitivity throughout the entire region. The uncertainty of snow depth ensemble simulation in mountainous areas is predominantly concentrated between 0.2 and 0.3 m, which is significantly higher than that in basin areas. This study aims to provide valuable insights into the judicious selection of parameterization schemes for modeling snow processes. Full article

The aim of this study is to joint assimilate the ozone product from the satellite Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and bogus data using the four-dimensional ensemble-variational (4DEnVar) method, and demonstrate the potential benefits of this initialization technique in improving hurricane forecasting through a case study. Firstly, the quality control scheme is employed to enhance the ozone product quality from the satellite AIRS; a bogus sea level pressure (SLP) at the hurricane center is constructed simultaneously based on Fujita’s mathematical model for subsequent assimilation. Secondly, a 4DEnVar satellite ozone and bogus data assimilation (SOBDA) model is established, incorporating an observation operator of satellite ozone that utilizes the relationship between satellite ozone and potential vorticity (PV) from the lower level of 400 hPa to the upper level of 50 hPa. Finally, several comparative experiments are performed to assess the influence of assimilating satellite ozone and/or bogus data, the 4DEnVAR method and four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) method, and ensemble size on hurricane prediction. It is found that assimilating satellite ozone and bogus data with the 4DEnVar method concurrently brings about significant alterations to the initial conditions (ICs) of the hurricane vortex, resulting in a more homogeneous and deeper vortex with a larger, warmer, and more humid core as opposed to assimilating only one type of data. As the duration of integration increases, the initial perturbations in the upper levels gradually propagate downwards, giving rise to significant disparities in the hurricane prediction when satellite ozone and/or bogus information is incorporated. The results demonstrate that utilizing the 4DEnVar approach to assimilate both satellite ozone and bogus data leads to the maximum enhancement in reducing track error and central SLP error of hurricane simulation throughout the entire 72 h forecasting period, compared to assimilating a single dataset. Furthermore, comparative experiments have indicated that the performance of 4DEnVar SOBDA in hurricane forecasting is influenced by the ensemble size. Generally, selecting an appropriate number of ensemble members can not only effectively improve the accuracy of hurricane prediction but can also significantly reduce the demand for computational resources relative to the 4D-Var method. This study can also serve as an advantageous technical reference for numerical applications of ozone products from other satellites and hurricane initialization. Full article

By sampling perturbed state vectors from each ensemble forecast at additional time levels shifted by ±τ (where τ is a selected time interval) from the analysis time, time-expanded sampling (TES) can not only sample timing errors (or phase errors) but also triple the analysis ensemble size for covariance construction without increasing the forecast ensemble size. In this study, TES was applied to the convection-allowing ensemble-based warn-on-forecast system (WoFS), for four severe storm events, to reduce the computational costs that constrain real-time applications in the assimilation of remote-sensing data from radars and the geostationary satellite GOES-16. For each event, TES was implemented against a 36-member control experiment (E36) by reducing the forecast ensemble size to 12 but tripling the analysis ensemble size to 12 × 3 = 36 with τ = 2.5 min, 5 min and 7.5 min in three TES experiments, named E12×3τ2.5, E12×3τ5 and E12×3τ7.5, respectively. A 0–6-h forecast was created hourly after the second hour during the assimilation in each experiment. The assimilation statistics were evaluated for each experiment applied to each event and were found to be little affected by the TES, while reducing the computational cost. The forecasts produced in each experiment were verified against multi-sensor observed/estimated rainfall, reported tornadoes and damaging winds for each event. The verifications indicated that the forecasts produced in the three TES experiments had about the same capability and quality as that in the E36 for predicting hourly rainfall and the probabilities of tornadoes and damaging winds; in addition, the predictive capability and quality were not sensitive to τ, although they were slightly enhanced by selecting τ = 7.5 min. These results suggest that TES is attractive and useful for cost-saving real-time applications of WoFS in the assimilation of remote-sensing data and the generation of short-term severe-weather forecasts. Full article

This research develops the TB/non-TB detection and drug-resistant categorization diagnosis decision support system (TB-DRC-DSS). The model is capable of detecting both TB-negative and TB-positive samples, as well as classifying drug-resistant strains and also providing treatment recommendations. The model is developed using a deep learning ensemble model with the various CNN architectures. These architectures include EfficientNetB7, mobileNetV2, and Dense-Net121. The models are heterogeneously assembled to create an effective model for TB-DRC-DSS, utilizing effective image segmentation, augmentation, and decision fusion techniques to improve the classification efficacy of the current model. The web program serves as the platform for determining if a patient is positive or negative for tuberculosis and classifying several types of drug resistance. The constructed model is evaluated and compared to current methods described in the literature. The proposed model was assessed using two datasets of chest X-ray (CXR) images collected from the references. This collection of datasets includes the Portal dataset, the Montgomery County dataset, the Shenzhen dataset, and the Kaggle dataset. Seven thousand and eight images exist across all datasets. The dataset was divided into two subsets: the training dataset (80%) and the test dataset (20%). The computational result revealed that the classification accuracy of DS-TB against DR-TB has improved by an average of 43.3% compared to other methods. The categorization between DS-TB and MDR-TB, DS-TB and XDR-TB, and MDR-TB and XDR-TB was more accurate than with other methods by an average of 28.1%, 6.2%, and 9.4%, respectively. The accuracy of the embedded multiclass model in the web application is 92.6% when evaluated with the test dataset, but 92.8% when evaluated with a random subset selected from the aggregate dataset. In conclusion, 31 medical staff members have evaluated and utilized the online application, and the final user preference score for the web application is 9.52 out of a possible 10. Full article

Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is a chronic gastrointestinal disorder characterized by periods of activity and remission. IBD includes Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), and even though IBD has not been considered as a heritable disease, there are genetic variants associated with increased risk for the disease. 5-Hydroxytriptamine (5-HT), or serotonin, exerts a wide range of gastrointestinal effects under both normal and pathological conditions. Furthermore, Serotonin Transporter (SERT) coded by Solute Carrier Family 6 Member 4 (SLC6A4) gene (located in the 17q11.1-q12 chromosome), possesses genetic variants, such as Serotonin Transporter Gene Variable Number Tandem Repeat in Intron 2 (STin2-VNTR) and Serotonin-Transporter-linked promoter region (5-HTTLPR), which have an influence over the functionality of SERT in the re-uptake and bioavailability of serotonin. The intestinal microbiota is a crucial actor in normal human gut physiology, exerting effects on serotonin, SERT function, and inflammatory processes. As a consequence of abnormal serotonin signaling and SERT function under these inflammatory processes, the use of selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRIs) has been seen to improve disease activity and extraintestinal manifestations, such as depression and anxiety. The aim of this study is to integrate scientific data linking the intestinal microbiota as a regulator of gut serotonin signaling and re-uptake, as well as its role in the pathogenesis of IBD. We performed a narrative review, including a literature search in the PubMed database of both review and original articles (no date restriction), as well as information about the SLC6A4 gene and its genetic variants obtained from the Ensembl website. Scientific evidence from in vitro, in vivo, and clinical trials regarding the use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors as an adjuvant therapy in patients with IBD is also discussed. A total of 194 articles were used between reviews, in vivo, in vitro studies, and clinical trials. Full article