Search Results (105)

This study examines the dynamics of equity market volatility and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using daily return data for sectoral indices and the JSE All Share Index (ALSI) from 1 January 2020 to 31 March 2022, the analysis explores both market-wide and sector-specific volatility responses. Univariate GARCH-family models (GARCH (1,1), E-GARCH, and T-GARCH) are employed to capture volatility clustering, persistence, and asymmetry across sectors. The results show that volatility was highly persistent during the pandemic, with sectoral differences in sensitivity to shocks: Consumer Staples and Financials were particularly reactive to recent news, while Health Care and Basic Materials were more stable. Asymmetric models confirm that market sentiment was predominantly driven by negative news, except in the Energy sector, where positive recovery signals played a stronger role. Correlation analysis further indicates that most sectors were moderately correlated with the ALSI, while Energy and Health Care behaved more independently. In contrast, both the ALSI and sector returns exhibited weak and negative correlations with the South African EPU index, suggesting that uncertainty did not translate directly into equity market declines. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of sectoral heterogeneity in volatility dynamics and suggest that during extreme market events, investors can mitigate downside risk by reallocating portfolios toward more resilient sectors. Full article

The prevailing view is that ESG performance contributes to corporate financial stability, particularly regarding long-term sustainability objectives. However, there is a notable lack of critical research exploring its short-term financial effects, especially within capital-intensive sectors experiencing green transformation. This study examines the theoretical gap by investigating whether increased ESG performance may unintentionally heighten the financial burden and default risk in the short run. To verify the stability of each variable in the series, we employed the short-panel unit root test on panel data from 234 Chinese energy industry companies covering the years 2015 to 2023. Including enterprise fixed effects as well as time fixed effects, we find that higher ESG ratings increase the possibility of default risk in the Chinese energy sector. This effect remains robust after controlling firm size, financial leverage, return on assets, return on equity, earnings per share, beta and firm age. In addition, we conduct robustness checks using alternative default risk measures, both endogeneity- and component-based, and the outcomes demonstrate that the impact is substantial and consistent. Consequently, we may draw the conclusion that raising the ESG rating has an adverse effect on reducing corporate default risk, which fills the knowledge gap regarding the influence of listed companies’ default risk on China’s energy sector. Moreover, it has been found that green innovation plays a strengthening role in the analysis of the interaction term between green innovation and ESG on default risk. This suggests that while green innovation is a strategic initiative aimed at long-term sustainability, it requires a significant amount of capital and resources in the short term, which may result in higher default risk in the beginning. Full article

This paper presents a cluster analysis of 20 spa enterprises operating in Slovakia, based on key financial indicators for the years 2018 and 2023. A comparative time-based approach was adopted to capture changes in financial performance over time. The primary objective is to group the spas into homogeneous clusters to better understand their financial performance and strategic positioning. Ten financial indicators were selected across five dimensions: profitability (return on assets, return on sales), efficiency (assets turnover), cost efficiency (personnel cost ratio, cost-to-sales ratio, return on costs), liquidity (net working capital, current ratio), and indebtedness (equity to total liabilities ratio, debt ratio). Hierarchical cluster analysis—a widely used statistical method in unsupervised machine learning and a foundational technique in artificial intelligence—was employed, serving as a robust tool for data-driven decision making. The analysis identified distinct clusters of spas with similar financial characteristics. The results reveal meaningful segmentation that can inform resource allocation, performance benchmarking, and strategic planning. The findings provide spa managers, investors, and policy makers with a clearer understanding of financial patterns in the Slovak spa sector and offer practical implications for enhancing competitiveness and operational effectiveness. Full article

This paper examines the impact of agent banking activities, a recent FinTech development, influencing the profitability and financial outcomes of commercial banks operating in Bangladesh, as agent banking has been receiving significant global attention due to its technology-driven approach, cost-effectiveness and easy accessibility, and broader coverage of the unbanked population. Through the application of penal data regression methods, the study estimates a random-effect model using panel data comprising quarterly observations from nine Bangladeshi commercial banks that maintained uninterrupted agent banking activities, covering both deposit mobilization and lending during the period from 2018Q1 to 2024Q4. The empirical findings indicate that credit disbursement by agent banks has a positive and statistically significant impact on bank profitability measures, return on assets (ROA), and return on equity (ROE). Similarly, the expansion of agent banking outlets positively and significantly influences ROA. Therefore, an appropriate agent banking policy aimed at increasing agent banking outlets using digital platforms based on FinTech is vital for ensuring positive growth in credit disbursement to achieve improved financial outcomes for the banking sector in a developing country like Bangladesh. Full article

This study investigates the predictive performance of financial indicators in forecasting stock prices within the automotive sector using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In light of the growing complexity of global financial markets and the increasing demand for automated, data-driven forecasting models, this research aims to identify those financial ratios that most accurately reflect price dynamics in this specific industry. The model incorporates four widely used financial indicators, return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), earnings per share (EPS), and profit margin (PM), as inputs. The analysis is based on real financial and market data from automotive companies, and model performance was assessed using RMSE, nRMSE, and confidence intervals. The results indicate that the full model, including all four indicators, achieved the highest accuracy and prediction stability, while the exclusion of ROA or ROE significantly deteriorated model performance. These findings challenge the weak-form efficiency hypothesis and underscore the relevance of firm-level fundamentals in stock price formation. This study’s sector-specific approach highlights the importance of tailoring predictive models to industry characteristics, offering implications for both financial modeling and investment strategies. Future research directions include expanding the indicator set, increasing the sample size, and testing the model across additional industry domains. Full article

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a key metric widely applied in market risk assessment and regulatory compliance under the Basel III framework. This study compares two Monte Carlo-based VaR models using publicly available equity data: a return-based model calibrated to historical portfolio volatility, and a CAPM-style factor-based model that simulates risk via systematic factor exposures. The two models are applied to a technology-sector portfolio and evaluated under historical and rolling backtesting frameworks. Under the Basel III backtesting framework, both initially fall into the red zone, with 13 VaR violations. With rolling-window estimation, the return-based model shows modest improvement but remains in the red zone (11 exceptions), while the factor-based model reduces exceptions to eight, placing it into the yellow zone. These results demonstrate the advantages of incorporating factor structures for more stable exception behavior and improved regulatory performance. The proposed framework, fully transparent and reproducible, offers practical relevance for internal validation, educational use, and model benchmarking. Full article

This study examines the effects of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) market-based measures, with a particular focus on the greenhouse gas (GHG) levy and on the financial and operational performance of Korean shipping companies. The analysis estimates that these companies, which play a vital role in global trade, consume approximately 9211 kilotons of fuel annually and emit 28.5 million tons of carbon dioxide. Under the lowest proposed carbon tax scenario, the financial burden on these companies is estimated at approximately KRW 1.07 trillion, resulting in an 8.8% reduction in net profit, a 2.4% decrease in return on equity (ROE), and a 1.1% decline in return on assets (ROA). Conversely, under the highest carbon tax scenario, costs rise to KRW 4.89 trillion, leading to a significant 40.2% decrease in net profit, thereby posing a serious threat to the financial stability and competitiveness of these firms. These findings underscore the urgent need for strategic policy interventions to mitigate the financial impact of carbon taxation while promoting both environmental sustainability and economic resilience in the maritime sector. Full article

This study explores the presence of hidden market regimes in a sector-specific stock index within the Thai equity market. The behavior of such indices often deviates from broader macroeconomic trends, making it difficult for conventional models to detect regime changes. To overcome this limitation, the study employs a multivariate Gaussian mixture hidden Markov model, which enables the identification of unobservable states based on daily and intraday return patterns. These patterns include open-to-close, open-to-high, and low-to-open returns. The model is estimated using various specifications, and the best-performing structure is chosen based on the Akaike Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion. The final model reveals three statistically distinct regimes that correspond to bullish, sideways, and bearish conditions. Statistical tests, particularly the Kruskal–Wallis method, confirm that return distributions, trading volume, and open interest differ significantly across these regimes. Additionally, the analysis incorporates risk measures, including expected shortfall, maximum drawdown, and the coefficient of variation. The results indicate that the bearish regime carries the highest risk, whereas the bullish regime is relatively stable. These findings offer practical insights for regime-aware portfolio management in sectoral equity markets. Full article

The objective of this paper is to analyse profitability and risk through the return on equity (ROE) measure of the open economy insurance sector in a non-stable economic period with an economic shock chain, during the years 2018–2022, characterised by an overheating economy, the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and a high-inflation wave. The ROE pyramid decomposition structure is proposed, along with the detailed CARAMEL version. A static and risk (dynamic) decomposition deviation analysis is used. The yearly non-stable drivers of insurance sector profitability deviation were confirmed. Despite this, the most influential were the earnings ratio deviations in either increasing or decreasing ROE alternatives. Solvency positively influenced the ROE deviation. It turned out that earnings and asset quality enormously increase the risk of the insurance sector. Conversely, risk is decreased mainly by liquidity and management. Simultaneously, significant, influential factors were identified. The results can serve as a background for carrying out operations, strategic analysis, and decision-making. Full article

This study examines the relationship between stock prices, energy prices, and climate policy uncertainty using 11 sectoral stocks in the U.S. market. The evidence confirms that rising prices of energy commodities positively affect not only the energy and oil sector stocks but also create spillover effects across other sectors. Notably, all sectoral stocks, except Real Estate sector, show resilience to increases in crude oil and gasoline, suggesting potential hedging benefits. In addition, the findings reveal that sectoral stock returns are generally negatively affected by several types of uncertainty, including climate policy uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty, oil price uncertainty, as well as energy and environmental regulation-induced equity market volatility and the energy uncertainty index. These adverse effects are present across sectors, with few exceptions. The evidence reveals that the feedback effect between changes in climate policy uncertainty and changes in oil prices has an adverse impact on stock returns. Omitting these uncertainty factors from analyses could lead to biased estimates in the relationship between stock prices and energy prices. Full article

The increasing pressure for transparency in corporate sustainability reporting, especially under frameworks such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive and the European Sustainability Reporting Standards, has raised the need for sector-specific models to integrate financial, social, and environmental indicators coherently and measurably. This study proposes a composite econometric model to assess the sustainability performance of companies in the construction sector in a digital context, a domain that remains underexplored despite its substantial economic and environmental impact. Drawing on a sample of 1600 Romanian construction companies over ten years (2013–2023), this study develops a multidimensional sustainability score and tests its financial drivers using ordinary least squares regression models. The model incorporates nine financial structure variables as predictors of sustainability outcomes across three dimensions—financial, social, and environmental—while ensuring robustness through heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity diagnostics. The results show that indicators such as the return on assets, debt ratio, and equity structure significantly influence sustainability performance, particularly in the financial and environmental dimensions. In contrast, the social dimension exhibits lower explanatory power. The findings suggest that financial resilience plays a critical role in shaping sustainable practices in the construction industry and support the adoption of integrated models for performance benchmarking and policy alignment. Full article

Modern healthcare generates significant amounts of greenhouse gas emissions and waste, which pollute the global environment and damage human health. Healthcare firms could reduce these environmental emissions and waste by developing environmentally friendly technologies and production processes. However, the implementation of green innovations requires significant investments. Healthcare equity mutual funds could provide them financial resources whether this allows fund managers to comply with their fiduciary duties. Previous literature has examined the financial performance of healthcare mutual funds without considering the environmental practices that investees adopt. To understand this issue, we examined the effect of investees’ environmental business practices on healthcare fund financial performance by considering different states of the economy. To this end, we obtained a sample of 148 global healthcare equity mutual funds from December 2015 to December 2022. Adopting the Fama–French model, our findings indicate that mutual funds improve financial performance when investee firms are in the initial phase of greening their processes and activities. However, the mutual funds invested in healthcare firms with advanced environmental practices achieve risk-adjusted returns similar to those invested in healthcare firms that implement conventional business management strategies. Furthermore, the financial performance of healthcare mutual funds is not significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis at the aggregate level. Therefore, adopting environmental practices in the healthcare sector will not result in a loss of investor wealth from 2016 to 2022. Full article

This study investigates the heterogeneous impact of bank automation on institutional performance, emphasizing the role of mechatronic systems like automated teller machines (ATMs) and artificial intelligence-based tools such as chatbots and robo-advisors. Using Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), the analysis examines how these technologies influence key performance indicators, including return on equity (ROE), in the European Union (EU) banking sector from 2017 to 2022. The MMQR method allows for the differentiation of the effects of automation technologies by distinguishing between hardware-based mechatronic systems and software-driven AI solutions, providing a nuanced perspective on the digital transformation within the banking sector. The results highlight the heterogeneous effects of economic, financial, and institutional factors on banking performance in the EU. They emphasize the need for differentiated policy interventions to reduce performance gaps between EU economies and ensure that banks across all member states can leverage financial and technological advancements to enhance profitability. The findings underline the importance of strategic interventions to address digitalization disparities, promote financial inclusion, and establish a regulatory framework that fosters transparency, cybersecurity, and equitable access to AI-driven financial services. Full article

Measuring financial performance is pivotal not only for assessing a firm’s current health but also for informing strategic decisions that shape its long-term trajectory. This study investigates how macroeconomic volatility affects the firm profitability across five major sectors in Türkiye—industrial manufacturing, food, beverage and tobacco, chemicals and plastics, technology, and energy—during the turbulent period from 2016 to 2023. Using return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) as performance indicators, we apply panel data regression to test the impact of inflation, interest rates, unemployment, and a novel Macroeconomic Stress Index (MSI), which combines inflation and exchange rate volatility. The results reveal significant sectoral differences: firms in chemicals and manufacturing outperformed others in ROA, likely benefiting from export incentives and scale efficiencies, while energy and food sectors underperformed, constrained by regulations and cost rigidity. Notably, MSI showed a consistent and significant positive effect on both ROA and ROE, suggesting that many firms responded to macroeconomic stress by restructuring operations and improving efficiency. In contrast, interest rates had a strong negative effect on profitability, confirming the sensitivity of firms to financing costs. These findings underscore the need for targeted sector-level policy support and highlight the importance of internal adaptive capabilities in maintaining the firm’s performance under sustained economic stress. Full article

Ignoring the presence of non-performing assets makes efficiency measurement inappropriate and incomplete. Thus, the present study considers non-performing assets as an undesirable output and applies the slack-based efficiency model to measure the efficiency of public sector banks in India during 2004–2005 to 2018–2019. A two-metric performance assessment of sample banks is carried out using mean efficiency and the non-performing assets management ratio. This study is extended to investigate determinants of bank efficiency using a fixed effects model and dynamic panel data regression on the contextual variables. Results show that profitability as measured by return on equity (ROE) and priority sector exposure have had no impact on efficiency. However, cost of deposits and capital adequacy ratio have a significant negative impact on the efficiency of public sector banks in India. Most importantly, the study finds a decline in efficiency in recent years, indicating a necessity of serious efforts for revamping these state-owned banks. Full article