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18 pages, 886 KB  
Article
Insights into Forest Composition Effects on Wildland–Urban Interface Wildfire Suppression Expenditures in British Columbia
by Lili Sun, Rico Chan, Kota Endo and Stephen W. Taylor
Forests 2025, 16(11), 1626; https://doi.org/10.3390/f16111626 (registering DOI) - 24 Oct 2025
Viewed by 73
Abstract
Burned area, fire severity, and suppression expenditures have increased in British Columbia in recent decades with climate change. Approximately 80% of suppression expenditures are attributable to wildfires near the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI). Evaluating the potential for fuel management to reduce suppression expenditures is [...] Read more.
Burned area, fire severity, and suppression expenditures have increased in British Columbia in recent decades with climate change. Approximately 80% of suppression expenditures are attributable to wildfires near the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI). Evaluating the potential for fuel management to reduce suppression expenditures is essential to mitigating demands on fire response resources and reducing impacts on communities. One management approach is to increase the proportion of deciduous tree species, which have a lower propensity for crown fire. Using fire suppression expenditure data from 1981 to 2014, we applied the machine learning method causal forests (CFs) to estimate the effect of the proportion of conifer forest cover on suppression expenditures for WUI fires and how these effects varied with other influential factors (i.e., heterogenous treatment effects). Across all fires, the effect of conifer cover on suppression expenditures was stronger on private land compared to public land, under high fire danger measured by daily severity ratings (DSRs), which reflect wind speed and fuel moisture, and for fires igniting earlier in the calendar year, based on Julian day. These findings provide insights into prioritizing wildland fuel treatment when budgets are limited. The CFs approach demonstrates potential for broader applications in fire risk mitigation and analysis beyond the scope of the current data. CFs may also be valuable in other areas of forest research where heterogenous treatment effects are common. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Forest Economics, Policy, and Social Science)
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20 pages, 3085 KB  
Article
Impact of the Association of Maize with Native Beans on the Morphological Growth, Yield, and Nutritional Composition of Forage Intended for Silage in the Peruvian Amazon
by Héctor V. Vásquez, Manuel Reyna, Lamberto Valqui-Valqui, Leidy G. Bobadilla, Jorge L. Maicelo, Luis Homero Zagaceta Llanca, Juan Yalta Vela, José Manuel Isla Pérez, Ysai Paucar, Miguel A. Altamirano-Tantalean and Leandro Valqui
Agronomy 2025, 15(11), 2445; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy15112445 - 22 Oct 2025
Viewed by 241
Abstract
Scenarios of climate change, extensive land use, soil degradation, the loss of native forest cover due to monoculture expansion, and pasture scarcity pose new challenges to livestock farming worldwide. Associated crops emerge as an alternative to mitigate these factors; however, selecting compatible species [...] Read more.
Scenarios of climate change, extensive land use, soil degradation, the loss of native forest cover due to monoculture expansion, and pasture scarcity pose new challenges to livestock farming worldwide. Associated crops emerge as an alternative to mitigate these factors; however, selecting compatible species that do not generate competition and optimize the attributes of the forage is a necessity. Therefore, this study evaluated the effect of a maize and bean association, and cutting time on the morphological variables, yield, and nutritional composition of forage. A randomized complete block design (RCBD) with a 3A × 3C factorial arrangement and three blocks was used. Factor A (associations) had three levels: INIA-604-Morocho maize monoculture (M), M+PER1003544 chaucha bean association (M+F1), and M+PER1003551 chaucha bean association (M+F2). Factor C (maize cutting stage) had three levels: R2 (blister grain), R3 (milky grain), and R4 (pasty grain). A total of 27 experimental units were established. No silage was made; the nutritional quality was evaluated as the raw material for silage. The treatments modulated key attributes for silage. In R4, the M+F2 association (INIA-604-Morocho + PER1003551) showed a higher percentage of dry matter in the system (32.36%) and better mixture quality due to a lower NDF and ADF (48.22% and 23.29%) and higher digestibility and protein values (62.10% and 9.53%). In addition, dry matter yields increased compared with R2 in M+F1 (134.16%), M+F2 (90.56%), and M (138.48%). Although R3 maximized green forage, R4 offered the best combination of quantity and quality for silage (as raw material), reducing the risk of deterioration and improving forage use efficiency. In general, combining maize with beans and adjusting the cut to R4 optimizes the production and quality of the raw material for silage, with the criterion that these findings pertain to pre-ensiled material and should be validated in future studies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Grassland and Pasture Science)
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34 pages, 3112 KB  
Article
Artificial Intelligence Applied to Soil Compaction Control for the Light Dynamic Penetrometer Method
by Jorge Rojas-Vivanco, José García, Gabriel Villavicencio, Miguel Benz, Antonio Herrera, Pierre Breul, German Varas, Paola Moraga, Jose Gornall and Hernan Pinto
Mathematics 2025, 13(21), 3359; https://doi.org/10.3390/math13213359 - 22 Oct 2025
Viewed by 148
Abstract
Compaction quality control in earthworks and pavements still relies mainly on density-based acceptance referenced to laboratory Proctor tests, which are costly, time-consuming, and spatially sparse. Lightweight dynamic cone penetrometer (LDCP) provides rapid indices, such as qd0 and qd1, [...] Read more.
Compaction quality control in earthworks and pavements still relies mainly on density-based acceptance referenced to laboratory Proctor tests, which are costly, time-consuming, and spatially sparse. Lightweight dynamic cone penetrometer (LDCP) provides rapid indices, such as qd0 and qd1, yet acceptance thresholds commonly depend on ad hoc, site-specific calibrations. This study develops and validates a supervised machine learning framework that estimates qd0, qd1, and Zc directly from readily available soil descriptors (gradation, plasticity/activity, moisture/state variables, and GTR class) using a multi-campaign dataset of n=360 observations. While the framework does not remove the need for the standard soil characterization performed during design (e.g., W, γd,field, and RCSPC), it reduces reliance on additional LDCP calibration campaigns to obtain device-specific reference curves. Models compared under a unified pipeline include regularized linear baselines, support vector regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and a compact multilayer perceptron (MLP). The evaluation used a fixed 80/20 train–test split with 5-fold cross-validation on the training set and multiple error metrics (R2, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE). Interpretability combined SHAP with permutation importance, 1D partial dependence (PDP), and accumulated local effects (ALE); calibration diagnostics and split-conformal prediction intervals connected the predictions to QA/QC decisions. A naïve GTR-average baseline was added for reference. Computation was lightweight. On the test set, the MLP attained the best accuracy for qd1 (R2=0.794, RMSE =5.866), with XGBoost close behind (R2=0.773, RMSE =6.155). Paired bootstrap contrasts with Holm correction indicated that the MLP–XGBoost difference was not statistically significant. Explanations consistently highlighted density- and moisture-related variables (γd,field, RCSPC, and W) as dominant, with gradation/plasticity contributing second-order adjustments; these attributions are model-based and associational rather than causal. The results support interpretable, computationally efficient surrogates of LDCP indices that can complement density-based acceptance and enable risk-aware QA/QC via conformal prediction intervals. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Artificial Intelligence and Data Science, 2nd Edition)
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31 pages, 55033 KB  
Article
A Satellite-Based Assessment of Divergent Carbon–Water Trends: Vegetation Greening Coincides with Declining Water Use Efficiency in the Haihe River Basin (2001–2023)
by Fang Xu, Jia Guo and Xiyue Wang
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(21), 3505; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17213505 - 22 Oct 2025
Viewed by 186
Abstract
In the context of global change, assessing the sustainability of ecological restoration in water-scarce regions presents a critical scientific challenge. The Haihe River Basin (HRB), vital to China’s food and water security, has experienced extensive greening over the past two decades. However, the [...] Read more.
In the context of global change, assessing the sustainability of ecological restoration in water-scarce regions presents a critical scientific challenge. The Haihe River Basin (HRB), vital to China’s food and water security, has experienced extensive greening over the past two decades. However, the hydrological cost of this greening remains uncertain. This study leverages multi-source satellite remote sensing data (MODIS, CLCD) from 2001 to 2023 to investigate the hydrological implications of this greening. Our analysis reveals a stark ‘decoupling’: despite significant increases in Gross Primary Production (GPP) (9.45 g C·m−2·yr−1, p < 0.01), the basin-wide Water Use Efficiency (WUE) exhibited a gradual yet statistically significant decline (slope = −0.01 g C·m−2·mm−1·yr−1, p < 0.01). In contrast, Carbon Use Efficiency (CUE) demonstrated no significant basin-wide trend but exhibited significant spatial decreases in mature forest areas. Spatially, the trends are heterogeneous; while 40.80% of the basin showed improved WUE, a significant decrease was observed in only 2.88% of the area, primarily in high-productivity agricultural zones. This localized decline, however, was substantial enough (with mean rates of decrease exceeding −0.06 g C·m−2·mm−1·yr−1) to influence the basin-wide average downward. Attribution analysis identified that climate change, particularly rising temperatures and the associated increase in vapor pressure deficit (VPD), were the dominant drivers of this decline by stimulating evapotranspiration (ET) at a rate faster than GPP enhancement. Collectively, our findings suggest that the observed greening trajectory in the HRB, while increasing carbon uptake, is becoming progressively less water-efficient, indicating a path of hydrological unsustainability. This research highlights the urgent need for hydrologically informed policies in ecological restoration, shifting the focus from simple ‘greening’ towards achieving ‘sustainable and hydrologically sound greening’. Full article
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31 pages, 6615 KB  
Article
A Modular and Explainable Machine Learning Pipeline for Student Dropout Prediction in Higher Education
by Abdelkarim Bettahi, Fatima-Zahra Belouadha and Hamid Harroud
Algorithms 2025, 18(10), 662; https://doi.org/10.3390/a18100662 - 18 Oct 2025
Viewed by 246
Abstract
Student dropout remains a persistent challenge in higher education, with substantial personal, institutional, and societal costs. We developed a modular dropout prediction pipeline that couples data preprocessing with multi-model benchmarking and a governance-ready explainability layer. Using 17,883 undergraduate records from a Moroccan higher [...] Read more.
Student dropout remains a persistent challenge in higher education, with substantial personal, institutional, and societal costs. We developed a modular dropout prediction pipeline that couples data preprocessing with multi-model benchmarking and a governance-ready explainability layer. Using 17,883 undergraduate records from a Moroccan higher education institution, we evaluated nine algorithms (logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), support vector machine (SVM), gradient boosting, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Naïve Bayes (NB), and multilayer perceptron (MLP)). On our test set, XGBoost attained an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC–ROC) of 0.993, F1-score of 0.911, and recall of 0.944. Subgroup reporting supported governance and fairness: across credit–load bins, recall remained high and stable (e.g., <9 credits: precision 0.85, recall 0.932; 9–12: 0.886/0.969; >12: 0.915/0.936), with full TP/FP/FN/TN provided. A Shapley additive explanations (SHAP)-based layer identified risk and protective factors (e.g., administrative deadlines, cumulative GPA, and passed-course counts), surfaced ambiguous and anomalous cases for human review, and offered case-level diagnostics. To assess generalization, we replicated our findings on a public dataset (UCI–Portugal; tables only): XGBoost remained the top-ranked (F1-score 0.792, AUC–ROC 0.922). Overall, boosted ensembles combined with SHAP delivered high accuracy, transparent attribution, and governance-ready outputs, enabling responsible early-warning implementation for student retention. Full article
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22 pages, 2367 KB  
Article
From Microbleeds to Iron: AI Prediction of Cerebrospinal Fluid Erythrocyte Load in Alzheimer’s Disease
by Rafail C. Christodoulou, Georgios Vamvouras, Maria Daniela Sarquis, Vasileia Petrou, Platon S. Papageorgiou, Ludwing Rivera, Celimar Morales Gonzalez, Gipsany Rivera, Sokratis G. Papageorgiou and Evros Vassiliou
J. Clin. Med. 2025, 14(20), 7360; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm14207360 - 17 Oct 2025
Viewed by 305
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Cerebrospinal fluid erythrocyte load (CTRED) reflects occult red-blood-cell ingress into brain/CSF and consequent heme–iron exposure, a toxic pathway relevant to Alzheimer’s disease (AD). We aimed to develop explainable machine learning (ML) models that classify high vs. low CTRED from routine, largely [...] Read more.
Background/Objectives: Cerebrospinal fluid erythrocyte load (CTRED) reflects occult red-blood-cell ingress into brain/CSF and consequent heme–iron exposure, a toxic pathway relevant to Alzheimer’s disease (AD). We aimed to develop explainable machine learning (ML) models that classify high vs. low CTRED from routine, largely non-invasive inputs, and to position a blood-first workflow leveraging contemporary plasma amyloid–tau biomarkers. Methods: Twenty-six ADNI participants were analyzed. Inputs were age, sex, mean arterial pressure (MAPres), amyloid (Aβ42), total tau, phosphorylated tau, and hippocampal atrophy rate (APC) derived from longitudinal MRI. APC was computed from normalized hippocampal volumes. CTRED was binarized at the median (0 vs. >0). Data were split into train (n = 20) and held-out test (n = 6). Five classifiers (linear SVM, ridge, logistic regression, random forests, and MLP) were trained in leakage-safe pipelines with stratified five-fold cross-validation. To provide a comprehensive assessment, we presented the contribution AUC, thresholded performance metrics, summarized model performance, and the permutation feature importance (PFI). Results: On the test set, SVM, ridge, logistic regression, and random forests achieved AUC = 1.00, while the MLP achieved AUC = 0.833. Across models, PFI consistently prioritized p-tau/tau, Aβ42, and MAPres; age, sex, and APC contributed secondarily. The attribution profile aligns with mechanisms linking BBB dysfunction and amyloid-related microvascular fragility with tissue vulnerability to heme–iron. Conclusions: In this proof-of-concept study, explainable ML predicted CTRED from routine variables with biologically coherent drivers. Although ADNI measurements were CSF-based and the sample was small, the framework is non-invasive by adding plasma p-tau217/Aβ1–42 for amyloid, tau inputs, and integrating demographics, hemodynamic context, and MRI. External, plasma-based validation in larger cohorts is warranted, alongside extension to MCI and multimodal correlation (QSM, DCE-MRI) to establish clinically actionable CTRED thresholds. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Innovative Approaches to the Challenges of Neurodegenerative Disease)
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22 pages, 2571 KB  
Article
Predicting the Concentration Levels of PM2.5 and O3 for Highly Urbanized Areas Based on Machine Learning Models
by Chao Wei, Chen Zhao, Yuanan Hu and Yutai Tian
Sustainability 2025, 17(20), 9211; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17209211 - 17 Oct 2025
Viewed by 350
Abstract
The accurate real-time forecasting and impact factor identification of air pollutant levels are critical for effective pollution control and management. In this study, we implemented three machine learning algorithms, namely, Random Forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), [...] Read more.
The accurate real-time forecasting and impact factor identification of air pollutant levels are critical for effective pollution control and management. In this study, we implemented three machine learning algorithms, namely, Random Forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), to predict PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region from 2019 to 2023. XGBoost outperformed the other algorithms and was further utilized to predict PM2.5 and O3 concentrations and identify their controlling factors. The models could efficiently capture the spatial and temporal variations in the pollutants in the study area, and it was found that both anthropogenic sources and weather conditions can have significant impacts on air pollutant levels. PM10 and CO were significantly correlated to PM2.5 levels, which could be attributed to their similar emission sources and dispersion characteristics in air. O3 concentrations were greatly influenced by temperature and NO2 due to their significant impacts on O3 generation. This study demonstrates that XGBoost-based models are cost-effective tools for predicting PM2.5 and O3 levels and identifying their controlling factors. These findings provide valuable insights for formulating effective air pollution prevention policies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Pollution and Impacts on Human Health)
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29 pages, 6643 KB  
Article
Experimental and Machine Learning-Based Investigation on Forced Convection Heat Transfer Characteristics of Al2O3–Water Nanofluid in a Rotating Hypergravity Condition
by Zufen Luo, Gen Li, Jianxun Xie, Xiaojie Zhang, Yunbo Wang and Xiande Fang
Aerospace 2025, 12(10), 931; https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace12100931 - 15 Oct 2025
Viewed by 252
Abstract
This study experimentally investigates single-phase forced convection heat transfer and flow characteristics of Al2O3-water nanofluids under rotating hypergravity conditions ranging from 1 g to 5.1 g. While nanofluids offer enhanced thermal properties for advanced cooling applications in aerospace and [...] Read more.
This study experimentally investigates single-phase forced convection heat transfer and flow characteristics of Al2O3-water nanofluids under rotating hypergravity conditions ranging from 1 g to 5.1 g. While nanofluids offer enhanced thermal properties for advanced cooling applications in aerospace and rotating machinery, their performance under hypergravity remains poorly understood. Experiments employed a custom centrifugal test rig with a horizontal test section (D = 2 mm, L = 200 mm) operating at constant heat flux. Alumina nanoparticles (20–30 nm) were dispersed in deionized water at mass fractions of 0.02–0.5 wt%, with stability validated through transmittance measurements over 72 h. Heat transfer coefficients (HTC), Nusselt numbers (Nu), friction factors (f), and pressure drops were measured across Reynolds numbers from 500 to 30,000. Results demonstrate that hypergravity significantly enhances heat transfer, with HTC increasing by up to 40% at 5.1 g compared to 1 g, most pronounced at the transition from 1 g to 1.41 g. This enhancement is attributed to intensified buoyancy-driven secondary flows quantified by increased Grashof numbers and modified particle distribution. Friction factors increased moderately (15–25%) due to Coriolis effects and enhanced viscous dissipation. Optimal performance occurred at 0.5 wt% concentration, effectively balancing thermal enhancement against pumping penalties. Random forest (RF) and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) achieved R2 = 0.9486 and 0.9625 in predicting HTC, respectively, outperforming traditional correlations (Gnielinski: R2 = 0.9124). These findings provide crucial design guidelines for thermal management systems in hypergravity environments, particularly for aerospace propulsion and centrifugal heat exchangers, where gravitational variations significantly impact cooling performance. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advanced Thermal Management in Aerospace Systems)
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17 pages, 4241 KB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Forest Fire Risk in Southeastern China Under Climate Change: Hydrothermal Drivers and Future Projections
by Dapeng Gong and Min Jing
Atmosphere 2025, 16(10), 1189; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16101189 - 15 Oct 2025
Viewed by 207
Abstract
Forest fire regimes are undergoing systematic reorganization under climate change, particularly in monsoon–human coupled ecosystems such as Southeastern China, where risk dynamics remain poorly quantified. This study proposes a meteorology-driven machine learning model designed to assess long-term forest fire risk. Using kernel density [...] Read more.
Forest fire regimes are undergoing systematic reorganization under climate change, particularly in monsoon–human coupled ecosystems such as Southeastern China, where risk dynamics remain poorly quantified. This study proposes a meteorology-driven machine learning model designed to assess long-term forest fire risk. Using kernel density estimation and standard deviational ellipse analysis, we assessed the spatiotemporal patterns of fire risk during the observational period and their future shifts across the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results indicate a significant overall decline in fire frequency from 2008 to 2024 (−467.3 fires/year, representing an annual average reduction of 10.8%, p < 0.001), which is attributed primarily to enhanced regional fire prevention and control measures, yet with a notable reversal after 2016 in Guangdong and Fujian. Fires are highly seasonal, with 74% occurring in the dry season (December–March). The meteorologically driven random forest model exhibited excellent performance (R2 = 0.889), validating meteorological conditions as key drivers of regional fire dynamics. It is projected that intensified warming (+5.5 °C under SSP5-8.5) and increased precipitation variability (+23%) are likely to drive pronounced northward and inland migration in high-risk zones. Our projections indicate that by the end of the century, high-risk area coverage could expand to 19.2%, with a shift from diffuse to clustered patterns, particularly in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. These findings underscore the critical role of hydrothermal reconfiguration in reshaping fire risk geography and highlight the need for dynamic, region-specific fire management strategies in response to compound climate risks. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology)
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26 pages, 12698 KB  
Article
Innovative Multi-Type Identification System for Cropland Abandonment on the Loess Plateau: Spatiotemporal Dynamics, Driver Shifts (2000–2023) and Implications for Food Security
by Wei Song
Land 2025, 14(10), 2062; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14102062 - 15 Oct 2025
Viewed by 288
Abstract
As a critical ecological barrier and key dryland agricultural zone in China, the Loess Plateau is faced with acute tensions between food security risks arising from cropland abandonment (CA) and the imperatives of ecological conservation. Yet, existing research has failed to adequately capture [...] Read more.
As a critical ecological barrier and key dryland agricultural zone in China, the Loess Plateau is faced with acute tensions between food security risks arising from cropland abandonment (CA) and the imperatives of ecological conservation. Yet, existing research has failed to adequately capture the long-term, high-spatiotemporal-resolution dynamics of abandonment in this region or to quantitatively couple its driving mechanisms with implications for food security. To address these gaps, this study establishes a high-precision identification system for CA tailored to the Plateau’s complex topographic conditions, distinguishing among interannual abandonment, multiyear abandonment, conversion to forest/grassland, and reclamation. Leveraging long-term data from 2000 to 2023 and integrating the Mann–Kendall test with the random forest algorithm, we examine the spatiotemporal trajectories, driving forces, and food security consequences of CA. Guided by a “type differentiation–grade classification–temporal tracking” framework, the analysis reveals a marked transition in dominant drivers from “socioeconomic factors” to “topographic–climatic factors.” It further identifies an “increasing loss–slowing growth” effect of abandonment on grain production, alongside a “pressure alleviation” trend in per capita carrying capacity. The results showed that: (1) Between 2000 and 2023, the area of CA on the Loess Plateau expanded from 2.72 million ha to 6.96 million ha, with high-grade abandonment (≥8 years) accounting for 58.9% of the total and being spatially concentrated in the hilly–gully regions of northern Shaanxi and eastern Gansu; (2) The Grain for Green Project (GFGP) peaked at approximately 340,000 hectares in 2018, followed by a slight decline, but has generally remained at around 300,000 hectares since then; (3) The reclamation rate of CA remained between 5% and 12% during 2003–2015, with minimal overall fluctuations, but after 2016, it gradually increased and peaked at 23.4% in 2022; (4) In terms of driving forces, population density (14.99%) was the primary determinant in 2005, whereas by 2020, slope (15.43%) and mean annual precipitation (15.63%) emerged as core factors; and (5) Grain yield losses attributable to abandonment increased from less than 100 t to nearly 450 t, though the growth rate slowed after 2016, accompanied by gradual alleviation of pressure on per capita carrying capacity. Overall, the study offers robust empirical evidence to inform cropland protection, food security strategies, and sustainable agricultural development policies on the Loess Plateau. Full article
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21 pages, 13748 KB  
Article
Integrated Assessment of Anthropogenic Carbon, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Inputs: A Panjin City Case Study
by Tianxiang Wang, Simiao Wang, Li Ye, Guangyu Su, Tianzi Wang, Rongyue Ma and Zipeng Zhang
Water 2025, 17(20), 2962; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17202962 - 15 Oct 2025
Viewed by 239
Abstract
Energy consumption and environmental pollution pose significant challenges to sustainable development. This study develops a comprehensive coupled framework model that advances the quantitative integration of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycles driven by multiple anthropogenic pollution sources. This paper used Panjin [...] Read more.
Energy consumption and environmental pollution pose significant challenges to sustainable development. This study develops a comprehensive coupled framework model that advances the quantitative integration of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycles driven by multiple anthropogenic pollution sources. This paper used Panjin city as a case study to analyze the dynamic changes and interconnections among C, N, and P. Results indicated that net anthropogenic carbon inputs (NAIC) increased by 33% from 2016–2020, while net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (NAIN) and net anthropogenic phosphorus inputs (NAIP) decreased by 14% and 28%, respectively. The primary driver of NAIC was energy consumption, while wetlands were the dominant carbon sequestration sink. Agricultural production was identified as the primary source of NAIN and NAIP, and approximately 4.5% of NAIN and 2.9% of NAIP were discharged into receiving water bodies. We demonstrate that human activities and natural processes exhibit dual attributes, producing positive and negative environmental effects. The increase in carbon emissions drives economic growth and industrial restructuring; however, the enhanced economic capacity also strengthens the ability to mitigate pollution through environmental protection measures. Similarly, natural ecosystems, including forests and grasslands, contribute to carbon sequestration and the release of non-point source pollution. The comprehensive environmental impact assessment of C, N, and P revealed that the comprehensive environmental index for Panjin city exhibited an improved trend. The factors of energy structure, energy efficiency, and economic scale promoted NAIC growth, with the economic scale factor alone accounting for 93% of the total increment. Environmental efficiency factor and population size factor were the primary drivers in reducing NAIN and NAIP discharges into the receiving water bodies. We propose a novel management model, ecological restoration, clean energy utilization, resource recycling, and pollution source reduction to achieve systemic governance of C, N, and P inputs. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Science and Technology for Water Purification, 2nd Edition)
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31 pages, 9956 KB  
Article
A Study on Flood Susceptibility Mapping in the Poyang Lake Basin Based on Machine Learning Model Comparison and SHapley Additive exPlanations Interpretation
by Zhuojia Li, Jie Tian, Youchen Zhu, Danlu Chen, Qin Ji and Deliang Sun
Water 2025, 17(20), 2955; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17202955 - 14 Oct 2025
Viewed by 380
Abstract
Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, and accurate flood susceptibility mapping (FSM) is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation amid climate change. The Poyang Lake basin, characterized by complex flood formation mechanisms and high spatial heterogeneity, poses challenges for the application [...] Read more.
Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, and accurate flood susceptibility mapping (FSM) is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation amid climate change. The Poyang Lake basin, characterized by complex flood formation mechanisms and high spatial heterogeneity, poses challenges for the application of FSM models. Currently, the use of machine learning models in this field faces several bottlenecks, including unclear model applicability, limited sample quality, and insufficient machine interpretation. To address these issues, we take the 2020 Poyang Lake flood as a case study and establish a high-precision flood inundation sample database. After feature screening, the performance of three hybrid models optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)—Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) is compared. Furthermore, the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework is employed to interpret the contributions and interaction effects of the driving factors. The results demonstrate that the ensemble learning models exhibit superior performance, indicating their greater applicability for flood susceptibility mapping in complex basins such as Poyang Lake. The RF model has the best predictive performance, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.9536. Elevation is the most important global driving factor, while SHAP local interpretation reveals that the driving mechanism has significant spatial heterogeneity, and the susceptibility of local depressions is mainly controlled by the terrain moisture index. A nonlinear phenomenon is observed where the SHAP value was negative under extremely high late rainfall, which is preliminarily attributed to the “spatial transfer that is prone to occurrence” mechanism triggered by the backwater effect, highlighting the complex nonlinear interactions among factors. The proposed “high-precision sampling, model comparison, SHAP explanation” framework effectively improves the accuracy and interpretability of FSM. These research findings can provide a scientific basis for smart flood control and precise flood risk management in basins. Full article
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34 pages, 1960 KB  
Article
Quantum-Inspired Hybrid Metaheuristic Feature Selection with SHAP for Optimized and Explainable Spam Detection
by Qusai Shambour, Mahran Al-Zyoud and Omar Almomani
Symmetry 2025, 17(10), 1716; https://doi.org/10.3390/sym17101716 - 13 Oct 2025
Viewed by 327
Abstract
The rapid growth of digital communication has intensified spam-related threats, including phishing and malware, which employ advanced evasion tactics. Traditional filtering methods struggle to keep pace, driving the need for sophisticated machine learning (ML) solutions. The effectiveness of ML models hinges on selecting [...] Read more.
The rapid growth of digital communication has intensified spam-related threats, including phishing and malware, which employ advanced evasion tactics. Traditional filtering methods struggle to keep pace, driving the need for sophisticated machine learning (ML) solutions. The effectiveness of ML models hinges on selecting high-quality input features, especially in high-dimensional datasets where irrelevant or redundant attributes impair performance and computational efficiency. Guided by principles of symmetry to achieve an optimal balance between model accuracy, complexity, and interpretability, this study proposes an Enhanced Hybrid Quantum-Inspired Firefly and Artificial Bee Colony (EHQ-FABC) algorithm for feature selection in spam detection. EHQ-FABC leverages the Firefly Algorithm’s local exploitation and the Artificial Bee Colony’s global exploration, augmented with quantum-inspired principles to maintain search space diversity and a symmetrical balance between exploration and exploitation. It eliminates redundant attributes while preserving predictive power. For interpretability, Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAPs) are employed to ensure symmetry in explanation, meaning features with equal contributions are assigned equal importance, providing a fair and consistent interpretation of the model’s decisions. Evaluated on the ISCX-URL2016 dataset, EHQ-FABC reduces features by over 76%, retaining only 17 of 72 features, while matching or outperforming filter, wrapper, embedded, and metaheuristic methods. Tested across ML classifiers like CatBoost, XGBoost, Random Forest, Extra Trees, Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors, Logistic Regression, and Multi-Layer Perceptron, EHQ-FABC achieves a peak accuracy of 99.97% with CatBoost and robust results across tree ensembles, neural, and linear models. SHAP analysis highlights features like domain_token_count and NumberOfDotsinURL as key for spam detection, offering actionable insights for practitioners. EHQ-FABC provides a reliable, transparent, and efficient symmetry-aware solution, advancing both accuracy and explainability in spam detection. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Computer)
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16 pages, 1963 KB  
Article
SHAP-Enhanced Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Framework for Data-Driven Weak Link Identification in Regional Distribution Grid Power Supply Reliability
by Yu Zhang, Jinyue Shi, Shicheng Huang, Liang Geng, Zexiong Wang, Hao Sun, Qingguang Yu, Ding Liu, Xin Yao, Weihua Zuo, Min Guo and Xiaoyu Che
Energies 2025, 18(20), 5372; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18205372 - 12 Oct 2025
Viewed by 359
Abstract
Reliability assessment of power systems is essential for ensuring the secure and stable operation of power grids, and identifying weak links constitutes a critical step in enhancing system reliability. Traditional deterministic methods are limited in their ability to capture the complex, nonlinear relationships [...] Read more.
Reliability assessment of power systems is essential for ensuring the secure and stable operation of power grids, and identifying weak links constitutes a critical step in enhancing system reliability. Traditional deterministic methods are limited in their ability to capture the complex, nonlinear relationships between component failures and overall system risk. To overcome this limitation, this paper proposes an explainable machine learning-based approach for identifying weak components in power systems. Specifically, a set of contingency scenarios is constructed through enumeration, and a random forest regression model is trained to map transmission line outage events to the amount of system load curtailment. The trained model is then interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. By aggregating these values, the global reliability contribution of each component is quantified. The proposed method is validated on the IEEE 57-bus system, and the results demonstrate its effectiveness and feasibility. This research offers a data-driven framework for translating system-level reliability metrics into device-level quantitative attributions, thereby enabling interpretable identification of weak links. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Application of Machine Learning Tools for Energy System)
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18 pages, 2736 KB  
Article
Study on Spatial Pattern Changes and Driving Factors of Land Use/Cover in Coastal Areas of Eastern China from 2000 to 2022: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province
by Mingli Zhang, Letian Ning, Juanling Li and Yanhua Wang
Land 2025, 14(10), 2031; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14102031 - 11 Oct 2025
Viewed by 328
Abstract
Jiangsu Province is an important economic province on the eastern coast of China, revealing the spatial–temporal characteristics, dynamic degree, and transition direction of land use/cover change, and its main driving factors are significant for the effective use of land resources and the promotion [...] Read more.
Jiangsu Province is an important economic province on the eastern coast of China, revealing the spatial–temporal characteristics, dynamic degree, and transition direction of land use/cover change, and its main driving factors are significant for the effective use of land resources and the promotion of regional human–land coordinated development. Based on land use data of Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2020, this study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use/cover using the dynamics model and the transfer matrix model, and examines the influence and interaction of the driving factors between human activities and the natural environment based on 10-factor data using Geodetector. The results showed that (1) In the past 20 years, the type of land use/cover in Jiangsu Province primarily comprises cropland, water, and impervious, with the land use/cover change mode mainly consisting of a dramatic change in cropland and impervious and relatively little change in forest, grassland, water, and barren. (2) From the perspective of the dynamic rate of land use/cover change, the single land use dynamic degree showed that impervious is the only land type whose dynamics have positively increased from 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2020, with values of 3.67% and 3.03%, respectively. According to the classification of comprehensive motivation, the comprehensive land use motivation in Jiangsu Province in each time period from 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2020 is 0.46% and 0.43%, respectively, which belongs to the extremely slow change type. (3) From the perspective of land use/cover transfer, Jiangsu Province is mainly characterized by a large area of cropland transfer (−7954.30 km2) and a large area of impervious transfer (8759.58 km2). The increase in impervious is mainly attributed to the transformation of cropland and water, accounting for 4066.07 km2 and 513.73 km2 from 2010 to 2020, which indicates that the non-agricultural phenomenon of cropland in Jiangsu Province, i.e., the process of transforming cropland into non-agricultural construction land, is significant. (4) From the perspective of driving factors, population density (q = 0.154) and night light brightness (q = 0.156) have always been important drivers of land use/cover change in Jiangsu Province. The interaction detection indicates that the land use/cover change is driven by both socio-economic factors and natural geographic factors. (5) In response to the dual pressures of climate change and rapid urbanization, coordinating the multiple objectives of socio-economic development, food security, and ecological protection is the fundamental path to achieving sustainable land use in Jiangsu Province and similar developed coastal areas. By revealing the characteristics and driving factors of land use/cover change in Jiangsu Province, this study provides qualitative and quantitative theoretical support for the coordinated decision-making of economic development and land use planning in Jiangsu Province, specifically contributing to sustainable land planning, climate adaptation policy-making, and the enhancement of community well-being through optimized land use. Full article
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