Search Results (47)

As wildfires intensify globally due to climate change, accurate wildfire danger forecasting systems have become essential for effective disaster management and early warning. Fuel Moisture Content (FMC), defined as the ratio of water mass to dry fuel mass, plays a critical role in determining ignition probability and fire spread dynamics. This study conducts a comparative analysis of five major national wildfire danger rating systems: the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS, USA), Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS), and the Korean Forest Fire Danger Rating System (KFDRS). Using a multi-criteria comparative framework, the systems were evaluated based on fuel classification structure, input variables, modeling approach, and spatiotemporal prediction resolution. The results reveal substantial disparities in spatial resolution (100 m to district-level), temporal resolution (hourly vs. daily), and fuel moisture modeling approaches (physics-based, index-based, and hybrid systems). Specifically, NFDRS and AFDRS provide high-frequency forecasting with hourly temporal resolution, operating at spatial resolutions of 1 km and 100 m, respectively, and incorporating dynamic fuel moisture modeling. In contrast, CFFDRS and KFDRS primarily rely on daily index-based predictions. Furthermore, while many global systems increasingly leverage remote sensing and machine learning for real-time FMC estimation, South Korea’s KFDRS remains predominantly empirical and weather-driven. The analysis identifies critical limitations in the KFDRS, including coarse spatial resolution (district-level), limited integration of Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) modeling, and the lack of AI-augmented hybrid approaches. Accordingly, this study proposes a phased three-stage policy roadmap (2026–2035), emphasizing sensor-network expansion, AI–physics fusion modeling, and high-resolution (10 m) FMC mapping to enhance forecasting accuracy in complex terrains. These findings provide strategic insights for improving wildfire risk management and supporting the transition from reactive response to predictive wildfire forecasting under increasing climate variability. Full article

Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) is a key determinant of vegetation flammability and fire behaviour, yet LFMC products have traditionally relied on coarse-resolution sensors such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, 500 m), limiting their utility for fine-scale fire management. This study introduces the first continental-scale operational LFMC product for Australia derived from Sentinel-2 imagery at 20 m resolution. We developed a Random Forest regression model trained on approximately 680,000 paired Sentinel-2 reflectance and MODIS-LFMC samples (2015–2022) to emulate outputs from the Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS), a MODIS-based pre-operational LFMC product. Model evaluation against AFMS showed strong agreement for grasslands (R² = 0.83, RMSE = 32.45%) and moderate performance for forests (R² = 0.43, RMSE = 20.84%) and shrublands (R² = 0.21, RMSE = 10.28%). Validation using 2279 in situ LFMC measurements from Globe-LFMC 2.0 indicated improved accuracy at homogeneous sites (NDVI CV ≤ 20th percentile: R² = 0.42, RMSE = 31.39%). Additionally, when validating with a dedicated field campaign specifically designed for Sentinel-2 LFMC assessment, the model achieved its highest accuracy (R² = 0.53, RMSE = 32.14%), highlighting the importance of tailored ground protocols for satellite product validation. Predicted LFMC also reproduced observed seasonal dynamics at sites with frequent field monitoring. Despite variability across vegetation types, the Sentinel-2 LFMC product effectively captured spatial patterns and seasonal dynamics, providing a step change in monitoring vegetation moisture at landscape scales. This high-resolution dataset offers actionable intelligence for prescribed burning, fuel treatment planning, and fire behaviour modelling in fire-prone environments. Full article

Wildfire suppression is often represented in fire spread simulators as static barriers that completely stop fire propagation and are placed at the start of the simulation. Recent works have begun to simulate barriers introduced at different time frames, but these normally act as static barriers. In reality, many water-based suppression tactics (aerial and ground) only slow the fire spread by temporarily increasing fuel moisture and cooling the fuel bed. To address this limitation, we present a new simulation feature: the Dynamic Water Barrier. Unlike static barriers, this representation captures the temporal transient effect of water application, since it is modeled using a simplified water load and evaporation dynamics to estimate changes in live fuel moisture content (LFMC). Implemented using the Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE), the Dynamic Water Barrier reduces the rate of spread and fireline intensity, delaying but not fully preventing fire propagation, providing a transient influence of water-based suppression. The approach was tested on one North American (NA) and one Portuguese fire, where suppression missions were available. The dynamic barriers led to reductions in Relative Area Difference, reaching 0.234 for the Portuguese fire and 0.006 for the NA fire, outperforming the scenario of no combat and having a comparable performance with the full static barrier (RAD 0.108 and 0.024, respectively), while limiting the creation of unburned areas behind the firefront. Although the validation is limited, these findings illustrate the potential to improve tactical decision support and dynamic suppression planning in wildfire management, requiring further studies of other fires and controlled fire suppression missions. Full article

Wildfires are a recurring dry-season hazard in northern Thailand, contributing to severe air pollution and trans-boundary haze. However, the region lacks the ground-based measurements necessary for monitoring Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC), a key variable influencing vegetation flammability. This study presents a preliminary framework for near-real-time (NRT) LFMC estimation using Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery. The system integrates normalized vegetation and moisture-related indices, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII), and the Moisture Stress Index (MSI) with an NDVI-derived evapotranspiration fraction (ETf) within a heuristic modeling approach. The workflow includes cloud and shadow masking, weekly to biweekly compositing, and pixel-wise normalization to address the persistent cloud cover and heterogeneous land surfaces. Although currently unvalidated, the LFMC estimates capture the relative spatial and temporal variations in vegetation moisture across northern Thailand during the 2024 dry season (January–April). Evergreen forests maintained higher moisture levels, whereas deciduous forests and agricultural landscapes exhibited pronounced drying from January to March. Short-lag responses to rainfall suggest modest moisture recovery following precipitation, although the relationship is influenced by additional climatic and ecological factors not represented in the heuristic model. LFMC-derived moisture classes reflect broad seasonal dryness patterns but should not be interpreted as direct fire danger indicators. This study demonstrates the feasibility of generating regional LFMC indicators in a data-scarce tropical environment and outlines a clear pathway for future calibration and validation, including field sampling, statistical optimization, and benchmarking against global LFMC products. Until validated, the proposed NRT LFMC estimation product should be used to assess relative vegetation dryness and to support the refinement and development of future operational fire management tools, including early warnings, burn-permit regulation, and resource allocation. Full article

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is a critical variable influencing wildfire behavior, ignition potential, and suppression difficulty, yet it remains challenging to monitor consistently across landscapes due to sparse field observations, rapid temporal changes, and vegetation heterogeneity. This study presents a comprehensive review of satellite-based approaches for estimating LFMC, with emphasis on methods applicable to New Zealand, where wildfire risk is increasing due to climate change. We assess the suitability of different remote sensing data sources, including multispectral, thermal, and microwave sensors, and evaluate their integration for characterizing both LFMC and fuel types. Particular attention is given to the trade-offs between data resolution, revisit frequency, and spectral sensitivity. As knowledge of fuel type and structure is critical for understanding wildfire behavior and LFMC, the review also outlines key limitations in existing land cover products for fuel classification and highlights opportunities for improving fuel mapping using remotely sensed data. This review lays the groundwork for the development of an operational LFMC prediction system in New Zealand, with broader relevance to fire-prone regions globally. Such a system would support real-time wildfire risk assessment and enhance decision-making in fire management and emergency response. Full article

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) significantly influences fire activity and behavior over different spatial and temporal scales. The ability to estimate LFMC is important to improve our capability to predict when and where large wildfires may occur. Currently, there is a gap in providing reliable near-real-time LFMC estimates which can contribute to better operational decision-making. The objective of this work was to develop near-real-time LFMC estimates for operational purposes in Portugal. We modelled LFMC using Random Forests for Portugal using a large set of potential predictor variables. We validated the model and analyzed the relationships between estimated LFMC and both fire size and behavior. The model predicted LFMC with an R² of 0.78 and an RMSE of 12.82%, and combined six variables: drought code, day-of-year and satellite vegetation indices. The model predicted well the temporal LFMC variability across most of the sampling sites. A clear relationship between LFMC and fire size was observed: 98% of the wildfires larger than 500 ha occurred with LFMC lower than 100%. Further analysis showed that 90% of these wildfires occurred for dead and live fuel moisture content lower than 10% and 100%, respectively. Fast-spreading wildfires were coincident with lower LFMC conditions: 92% of fires with rate of spread larger than 1000 m/h occurred with LFMC lower than 100%. The availability of spatial and temporal LFMC information for Portugal will be relevant for better fire management decision-making and will allow a better understanding of the drivers of large wildfires. Full article

Arid and semiarid ecosystems face significant water scarcity due to high evaporation rates exceeding precipitation. This study examines temporal variations in water relations of two woody species, Vachellia schaffneri (S. Watson) Seigler & Ebinger, and Prosopis laevigata (Humb. & Bonpl. ex Willd.) M.C. Johnst, and one epiphyte, Tillandsia recurvata (L.) L. (Bromeliaceae), to assess their drought tolerance and water storage capacity. We hypothesized that species with greater water storage capacity would exhibit lower drought tolerance due to reduced osmotic adjustments, whereas species with lower storage capacity would maintain turgor through osmotic regulation and cell wall rigidity. Predawn and midday water potentials (Ψ_pd, Ψ_md) were measured, and pressure–volume (P–V) curves were used to derive parameters such as saturated water content (SWC), osmotic potential (π_o), turgor loss point (Ψ_TLP), relative water content at Ψ_TLP (RWC_TLP), bulk modulus of elasticity (ε), and full turgor capacitance (C_FT). Significant correlations were found between C_FT and Ψ_TLP (positive), π_o (positive), and ε (negative). P. laevigata and T. recurvata exhibited higher water storage capacities (41.46 and 26.45 MPa⁻¹, respectively) but had a lower ability to maintain cell turgor under drought conditions. In contrast, V. schaffneri exhibited the lowest water storage capacity (11.88 MPa⁻¹) but demonstrated the highest ability to maintain cell turgor (Ψ_TLP = −1.31 MPa) and superior osmotic adjustments (π_o = −0.59 MPa). Both V. schaffneri and P. laevigata exhibited rigid cell walls, whereas T. recurvata displayed greater elasticity in its cell structures. The lowest moisture content in V. schaffneri suggests increased flammability and fire spread potential. Future studies should focus on live fuel moisture content across more species, explore seasonal variations in hydraulic traits, and integrate these physiological parameters into fire risk models to enhance wildfire prediction and management. Full article

Water content is one of the most critical characteristics in plant physiological development. Therefore, this information is a crucial factor in determining the water stress conditions of vegetation, which is essential for assessing the wildfire risk and land management decision-making. Remote sensing can be vital for obtaining information over large, limited access areas with global coverage. This is important since conventional techniques for collecting vegetation water content are expensive, time-consuming, and spatially limited. This work aims to evaluate the vegetation live fuel moisture content (LFMC) seasonal variability using a multiscale remote sensing approach, particularly on rockroses, the Cistus ladanifer species, a Western Mediterranean basin native species with wide spatial distribution, over the Herdade da Mitra at the University of Évora, Portugal. This work used four dataset sources, collected monthly between June 2022 and July 2023: (i) Vegetation samples used to calculate the LFMC; (ii) Vegetation reflectance spectral signature using the portable spectroradiometer FieldSpec HandHeld-2 (HH2); (iii) Multispectral optical imagery obtained from the Multispectral Instrument (MSI) sensor onboard the Sentinel-2 satellite; and (iv) Multispectral optical imagery derived from a camera onboard an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Phantom 4 Multispectral (P4M). Several temporal analyses were performed based on datasets from different sensors and on their intercomparison. Furthermore, the Random Forest (RF) classifier, a machine learning model, was used to estimate the LFMC considering each sensor approach. MSI sensor presented the best results (R² = 0.94) due to the presence of bands on the Short-Wave Infrared Imagery region. However, despite having information only in the Visible and Near Infrared spectral regions, the HH2 presents promising results (R² = 0.86). This suggests that by combining these spectral regions with a RF classifier, it is possible to effectively estimate the LFMC. This work shows how different spatial scales, from remote sensing observations, affect the LFMC estimation through machine learning techniques. Full article

Estimating live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is critical for assessing vegetation flammability and predicting potential fire behaviour, thus providing relevant information for wildfire prevention and management. Previous research has demonstrated that empirical modelling based on spectral data derived from remote sensing is useful for retrieving LFMC. However, these types of models are often very site-specific and generally considered difficult to extrapolate. In the present study, we analysed the performance of empirical models based on Sentinel-2 spectral data for estimating LFMC in fire-prone shrubland dominated by Cistus ladanifer. We used LFMC data collected in the field between June 2021 and September 2022 in 27 plots in the region of Andalusia (southern Spain). The specific objectives of the study included (i) to test previous existing models fitted for the same shrubland species in a different study area in the region of Madrid (central Spain); (ii) to calibrate empirical models with the field data from the region of Andalusia, comparing the model performance with that of existing models; and (iii) to test the capacity of the best empirical models to predict decreases in LFMC to critical threshold values in historical wildfire events. The results showed that the empirical models derived from Sentinel-2 data provided accurate LFMC monitoring, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 15% in the estimation of LFMC variability throughout the year and with the MAE decreasing to 10% for the critical lower LFMC values (<100%). They also showed that previous models could be easily recalibrated for extrapolation to different geographical areas, yielding similar errors to the specific empirical models fitted in the study area in an independent validation. Finally, the results showed that decreases in LFMC in historical wildfire events were accurately predicted by the empirical models, with LFMC <80% in this fire-prone shrubland species. Full article

In the Mediterranean region, particularly in Antalya, southern Türkiye, rising forest fire risks due to climate change threaten ecosystems, property, and lives. Reduced soil moisture during the growing season is a key factor increasing fire risk by stressing plants and lowering fuel moisture content. This study assessed soil moisture and fuel moisture content (FMC) in ten fires (2019–2021) affecting over 50 hectares. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) and its components (FFMC, DMC, DC) were calculated using data from the General Directorate of Meteorology, EFFIS (8 km), and ERA5 (≈28 km) satellite sources. Relationships between FMCs, satellite-based soil moisture datasets (SMAP, SMOS), and land surface temperature (LST) data (MODIS, Landsat 8) were analyzed. Strong correlations were found between FWI codes and satellite soil moisture, particularly with SMAP. Positive correlations were observed between LST and FWIs, while negative correlations were evident with soil moisture. Statistical models integrating in situ soil moisture and EFFIS FWI (R: −0.86, −0.84, −0.83 for FFMC, DMC, DC) predicted soil moisture levels during extended fire events effectively, with model accuracy assessed through RMSE (0.60–3.64%). The SMAP surface (0–5 cm) dataset yielded a lower RMSE of 0.60–2.08%, aligning with its higher correlation. This study underlines the critical role of soil moisture in comprehensive fire risk assessments and highlights the necessity of incorporating modeled soil moisture data in fire management strategies, particularly in regions lacking comprehensive in situ monitoring. Full article

Various factors influence wildfire probability, including land use/land cover (LULC), fuel types, and their moisture content, meteorological conditions, and terrain characteristics. The Adriatic Sea coastal area in Croatia has a long record of devastating wildfires that have caused severe ecological and economic damages as well as the loss of human lives. Assessing the conditions favorable for wildfires and the possible damages are crucial in fire risk management. Adriatic settlements and ecosystems are highly vulnerable, especially during summer, when the pressure from tourist migration is the highest. However, available fire risk models designed to fit the macro-scale level of assessment cannot provide information detailed enough to meet the decision-making conditions at the local level. This paper describes a model designed to assess wildfire risks at the meso-scale, focusing on environmental and anthropogenic descriptors derived from moderate- to high-resolution remote sensing data (Sentinel-2), Copernicus Land Monitoring Service datasets, and other open sources. Risk indices were integrated using the multi-criteria decision analysis method, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), in a GIS environment. The model was tested in three coastal catchments, each having recently experienced severe fire events. The approach successfully identified zones at risk and the level of risk, depending on the various environmental and anthropogenic conditions. Full article

Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) describes the amount of water present in any type of vegetation and helps quantify the amount of fuel available in a wildfire. In this paper, a multivariate linear regression model was built to estimate the LFMC of the weighted average of all shrub-type species present, using the fraction of canopy cover (FCC) of each forest species as weights. Sample training was conducted with field data obtained during the fire season of the years 2019, 2020 and 2021 in 15 plots of a Mediterranean area where vegetation composed of the shrub-type species dominates. Different spectral indices extracted from Sentinel-2 together with the mean surface temperature, the accumulated precipitation and the seasonal parameters were considered as predictors. The results were compared with the extrapolation of another model trained with field data collected in the year 2019. Full article

Affected by global warming and increased extreme weather, Hunan Province saw a phased and concentrated outbreak of forest fires in 2022, causing significant damage and impact. Predicting the occurrence of forest fires can enhance the ability to make early predictions and strengthen early warning and responses. Currently, fire prevention and extinguishing in China’s forests and grasslands face severe challenges due to the overlapping of natural and social factors. Existing forest fire occurrence prediction models mostly take into account vegetation, topographic, meteorological and human activity factors; however, the occurrence of forest fires is closely related to the forest fuel moisture content. In this study, the traditional driving factors of forest fire such as satellite hotspots, vegetation, meteorology, topography and human activities from 2004 to 2021 were introduced along with forest fuel factors (vegetation canopy water content and evapotranspiration from the top of the vegetation canopy), and a database of factors for predicting forest fire occurrence was constructed. And a forest fire occurrence prediction model was built using machine learning methods such as the Random Forest model (RF), the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model (GBDT) and the Adaptive Augmentation Model (AdaBoost). The accuracy of the models was verified using Area Under Curve (AUC) and four other metrics. The RF model with an AUC value of 0.981 was more accurate than all other models in predicting the probability of forest fire occurrence, followed by the GBDT (AUC = 0.978) and AdaBoost (AUC = 0.891) models. The RF model, which has the best accuracy, was selected to predict the monthly forest fire probability in Changsha in 2022 and combined with the Inverse Distance Weight Interpolation method to plot the monthly forest fire probability in Changsha. We found that the monthly spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire probability in Changsha varied significantly, with March, April, May, September, October, November and December being the months with higher forest fire probability. The highest probability of forest fires occurred in the central and northern regions. In this study, the core drivers affecting the occurrence of forest fires in Changsha City were found to be vegetation canopy evapotranspiration and vegetation canopy water content. The RF model was identified as a more suitable forest fire occurrence probability prediction model for Changsha City. Meanwhile, this study found that vegetation characteristics and combustible factors have more influence on forest fire occurrence in Changsha City than meteorological factors, and surface temperature has less influence on forest fire occurrence in Changsha City. Full article

This paper presents empirical models developed through stepwise multiple linear regression to estimate the live fuel moisture content (LFMC) in a Mediterranean area. The models are based on LFMC data measured in 50 field plots, considering four groups with similar bioclimatic characteristics and vegetation types (trees and shrubs). We also applied a species-specific LFMC model for Rosmarinus officinalis in plots with this dominant species. Spectral indices extracted from Sentinel-2 images and their averages over the study time period in each plot with a spatial resolution of 10 m were used as predictors, together with interpolated meteorological, topographic, and seasonal variables. The models achieved adjusted R² values ranging between 52.1% and 74.4%. Spatial and temporal variations of LFMC in shrub areas were represented on a map. The results highlight the feasibility of developing satellite-derived LFMC operational empirical models in areas with various vegetation types and taking into account bioclimatic zones. The adjustment of data through GAM (generalized additive models) is also addressed in this study. The different error metrics obtained reflect that these models provided a better fit (most adjusted R² values ranged between 65% and 74.1%) than the linear models, due to GAMs being more versatile and suitable for addressing complex problems such as LFMC behavior. Full article

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) influences many fire-related aspects, including flammability, ignition, and combustion. In addition, fire spread models are highly sensitive to LFMC values. Despite its importance, LFMC estimation is still elusive due to its dependence on plant species traits, local conditions, and weather patterns. Although LFMC mapping from active synthetic aperture radar has increased over the past years, their utility for LFMC estimation needs further analysis to include additional areas characterized by different vegetation species and fire regimes. This study extended the current knowledge using medium spatial resolution (20 m) time series acquired by active (Sentinel-1) and passive (Sentinel-2) sensors. Our results show that optical-based LFMC estimation may achieve acceptable accuracy (R² = 0.55, MAE = 15.1%, RMSE = 19.7%) at moderate (20 m) spatial resolution. When ancillary information (e.g., vegetation cover) was added, LFMC estimation improved (R² = 0.63, MAE = 13.4%). Contrary to other studies, incorporating Sentinel-1 radar data did not provide for improved LFMC estimates, while the use of SAR data alone resulted in increased estimation errors (R² = 0.28, MAE = 19%, RMSE = 25%). For increased fire risk scenarios (LFMC < 120%), estimation errors improved (MAE = 9.1%, RMSE = 11.8%), suggesting that direct LFMC retrieval from satellite data may be achieved with high temporal and spatial detail. Full article