Search Results (10)

Understanding the potential impact of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) on regional extreme precipitation and its mechanisms is critical for the safe operation of the reservoir and the efficient management of regional water resources. This study uses the regional climate model RegCM4 to conduct a double-nested simulation experiment (50 km to 10 km) from 1989 to 2012, evaluated against the CN5.1 observation dataset. Sensitivity experiments with three different lake area ratios (0%, 20% and 100%) were performed using the sub-grid partitioning method in the Community Land Model Version 4.5 to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution, intensity, and frequency of precipitation under varying TGR water areas. The results show that with a 20% lake area ratio, precipitation slightly decreases, but the impact on extreme precipitation indices is not statistically significant. However, with a 100% lake area ratio, significant decreases in both total and extreme precipitation indices occur. The reduction is primarily driven by the formation of anomalous mountain-valley circulation between the TGR and surrounding mountains, which leads to atmospheric subsidence and reduced convective activity. These findings indicate that while the TGR has a negligible impact on extreme precipitation under its current configuration, the exaggerated sensitivity experiments reveal potential mechanisms and localized effects. This research enhances the understanding of the TGR’s influence on regional extreme precipitation and provides valuable insights for water resource management and reservoir operation. Full article

A nested-grid modelling system is used to quantify effects of winds and tides on the three-dimensional (3D) circulation and hydrography over the southwestern Scotian Shelf (swScS) and surrounding areas in 2018. The performance of the nested-grid modelling system is assessed by comparing model results with observations and reanalysis data. Analysis of model results demonstrates that both winds and tides enhance the vertical mixing and modify the 3D circulation over the swScS. In winter (summer), the wind-induced vertical mixing warms (significantly cools) the sea surface temperature (SST) over the Scotian Shelf (ScS). In addition to intense vertical mixing associated with winter convection, the wind-induced mixing raises the sea surface salinity (SSS) by entraining the relatively salty sub-surface waters with the surface waters. The effect of wind-induced vertical mixing is evident in the upper water columns of ~40 m (~15 m) in February (August) 2018 over the swScS, reflecting the typically stronger wind forcing in winter than in summer. The wind forcing also enhances the seaward spreading of river runoff. Strong tidal mixing and advection also play an important role in affecting the hydrography and density-driven currents over the Bay of Fundy (BoF), Georges Bank (GeB), and swScS. In summer, tides significantly reduce the SST, increase the SSS, and affect large density-driven currents over the BoF, GeB, and swScS. Winds and tides also modify the large-scale ocean circulation, eddies, meanders, and frontal structures in the deep waters off the swScS through the modulation of baroclinic hydrodynamics. Full article

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteorological model is used to dynamically downscale data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) CMIP5 version (Model E2-R) over Europe at a 0.25° grid size resolution, for the period of 1951 to 2010. The model configuration is single nested with grid resolutions of 0.75° to 0.25°. Two 30-year datasets are produced for the periods of 1951–1980 and 1981–2010, representing the historic and current periods, respectively. Simulated changes in climate normals are estimated and compared against the change derived from the E-OBS gridded dataset at 0.25° spatial analysis. Results indicate that the model consistently underpredicts the temperature fluctuations observed across all subregions, indicative of a colder model climatology. Winter has the strongest bias of all seasons, with the northeastern part of the domain having the highest. This is largely due to the land–atmosphere interactions. Conversely, spring and summer have the lowest regional biases, owing to a combination of low snow cover (relative to winter) and milder radiation effects (as opposed to summer). Precipitation has a negative bias in most cases, regardless of the subregion analyzed, due to the physical mechanism employed and the topographic features of each region. Both the change in the number of days when the temperature exceeds 25 °C and the change in the number of days when precipitation exceeds 5 mm/day are captured by the model reasonably well, exhibiting similar characteristics with their counterpart means. Full article

A nested-grid ocean circulation modelling system (NGMS-swYS) is used for examining the impact of tides and winds on the three-dimensional (3D) circulation, hydrography and seasonal variability over the southwestern Yellow Sea (swYS). The modelling system is based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and uses a nested-grid setup, with a fine-resolution (~2.7 km) inner model nested inside a coarse-resolution (~9.0 km) outer model. The domain of the outer model covers the China Seas and adjacent deep ocean waters. The domain of the fine-resolution inner model covers the swYS and adjacent waters. The NGMS-swYS is driven by a suite of external forcings, including the atmospheric forcing, tides, freshwater discharge and currents specified at the lateral open boundaries. A comparison of model results with observations and previous numerical studies demonstrates the satisfactory performance of the NGMS-swYS in simulating tides, seasonal mean circulation and distribution of temperature and salinity. Five additional numerical experiments were conducted using NGMS-swYS with different combinations of external forcing. Analysis of model results demonstrates that the monthly mean circulation over the swYS is affected significantly by tides and winds, with large seasonal variability. The northward Subei Shoal Current occurred in both winter and summer months in 2015, with persistent strong southeastward mean currents induced by tides along the 50 m isobath. Model results also demonstrated that strong wind-induced currents occurred with large sea surface cooling during Typhoon Chan-Hom. Full article

Wind-driven coastal upwelling can cause a sudden drop in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of up to more than 8 °C on the inner Scotian Shelf (ScS) in the summer months. Three major coastal upwelling events on the ScS in the summer of 2012 are analyzed using in-situ SST observations and satellite remote sensing SST data. A spatial correlation analysis of satellite SST data shows an asymmetric distribution in the along-shore direction with smaller correlation coefficients in the downstream area than in the upstream area over the inner ScS during upwelling events. A regression analysis indicates that the wind impulse plays a major role in generating the SST cooling during the initial response stage of upwelling events. A nested-grid ocean circulation model (DalCoast-CSS) is used to examine the effect of irregular coastline and rugged bathymetry on the spatial and temporal variability of wind-driven upwelling over the inner ScS. The model has four submodels downscaling from the eastern Canadian Shelf to the central ScS. The model external forcing includes tides, winds, river discharges, and net heat flux at the sea surface. A comparison of model results with the satellite SST data reveals a satisfactory performance of the model in reproducing the development of coastal upwelling on the ScS. Model results demonstrate that the irregular coastline and rugged bathymetry play important roles in influencing the temporal and spatial evolution of the upwelling plume over the inner ScS. The irregular coastline (e.g., cape) is responsible for the relatively warm SSTs in two downstream inlets (i.e., St. Margarets Bay and Mahone Bay) and adjacent coastal waters. The rugged bathymetry (e.g., submerged bank) influences the spatial extent of filaments through the advection process. Full article

Analysis of sea-level observations demonstrates that Typhoons Mawar (2017) and Mangkhut (2018) induced seiches in both Dapeng Bay and Daya Bay near Shenzhen of China, with periods varying from about 3.5 to 4.0 h. Typhoon Mawar (2017) also generated seiches with a period of about 1.2 h. Seiches with such periods in the two bays have not been reported in the past. In this study, we investigate the main processes affecting seiches over these coastal waters using a nested-grid ocean circulation modeling system. The modelled results of typhoon-induced seiches agree well with observations, which indicates that the seiches after the passage of typhoons are dynamically free waves generated by the storm-induced accumulation of water bodies in the two bays. Model sensitivity experiments show that wind directions have an important influence on the type and characteristics of seiches. When the wind stress causes the water body to accumulate in a cross-bay direction, seiches in a closed water body are generated. When the wind stress causes the water body to accumulate in an along-bay direction, seiches in a semi-closed water body are produced. Because of the irregularity of the bathymetry and coastline and variability of wind directions, these two types of seiches can exist simultaneously in the two bays. Full article

Surface-level ozone (O₃) continues to be a significant health risk in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) of Canada even though precursor emissions in the area have decreased significantly over the past two decades. In July 2015, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) led an intensive field study coincident with Toronto hosting the 2015 Pan American Games. During the field study, the daily 1-h maximum O₃ standard (80 ppbv) was exceeded twice at a measurement site in North Toronto, once on July 12 and again on July 28. In this study, ECCC’s 2.5-km configuration of the Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM) meteorological model was combined with the Modelling Air-quality and CHemistry (MACH) on-line atmospheric chemistry model and the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban surface parameterization to create a new urban air quality modelling system. In general, the model results showed that the nested 2.5-km grid-spaced urban air quality model performed better in statistical scores compared to the piloting 10-km grid-spaced GEM-MACH model without TEB. Model analyses were performed with GEM-MACH-TEB for the two exceedance periods. The local meteorology for both cases consisted of light winds with the highest O₃ predictions situated along lake-breeze fronts. For the July 28 case, O₃ production sensitivity analysis along the trajectory of the lake-breeze circulation showed that the region of most efficient O₃ production occurred in the updraft region of the lake-breeze front, as the precursors to O₃ formation underwent vertical mixing. In this updraft region, the ozone production switches from volatile organic compound (VOC)-sensitive to NOx-sensitive, and the local net O₃ production rate reaches a maximum. This transition in the chemical regime is a previously unidentified factor for why O₃ surface-level mixing ratios maximize along the lake-breeze front. For the July 12 case, differences between the model and observed Lake Ontario water temperature and the strength of lake-breeze opposing wind flow play a role in differences in the timing of the lake-breeze, which impacts the predicted location of the O₃ maximum north of Toronto. Full article

Improvements in the short-term predictability of irradiance in numerical weather prediction models can assist grid operators in managing intermittent solar-generated electricity. In this study, the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model when simulating different components of solar irradiance was tested under days of high intermittency at Mildura, a site located on the border of New South Wales and Victoria, Australia. Initially, four intermittent and clear case days were chosen, later extending to a full year study in 2005. A specific configuration and augmentation of the WRF model (version 3.6.1) designed for solar energy applications (WRF-Solar) with an optimum physics ensemble derived from literature over Australia was used to simulate solar irradiance with four nested domains nudged to ERA-Interim boundary conditions at grid resolutions (45, 15, 5, and 1.7 km) centred over Mildura. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) station dataset available at minute timescales and hourly derived satellite irradiance products were used to validate the simulated products. Results showed that on days of high intermittency, simulated solar irradiance at finer resolution was affected by errors in simulated humidity and winds (speed and direction) affecting clouds and circulation, but the latter improves at coarser resolutions; this is most likely from reduced displacement errors in clouds. Full article

Air-sea interactions play an important role in atmospheric circulation and boundary layer conditions through changing convection processes and surface heat fluxes, particularly in coastal areas. These changes can affect the concentrations, distributions, and lifetimes of atmospheric pollutants. In this Part II paper, the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF/Chem) and the coupled WRF/Chem with the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) (WRF/Chem-ROMS) are intercompared for their applications over quadruple-nested domains in Australia during the three following field campaigns: The Sydney Particle Study Stages 1 and 2 (SPS1 and SPS2) and the Measurements of Urban, Marine, and Biogenic Air (MUMBA). The results are used to evaluate the impact of air-sea interaction representation in WRF/Chem-ROMS on model predictions. At 3, 9, and 27 km resolutions, compared to WRF/Chem, the explicit air-sea interactions in WRF/Chem-ROMS lead to substantial improvements in simulated sea-surface temperature (SST), latent heat fluxes (LHF), and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the ocean, in terms of statistics and spatial distributions, during all three field campaigns. The use of finer grid resolutions (3 or 9 km) effectively reduces the biases in these variables during SPS1 and SPS2 by WRF/Chem-ROMS, whereas it further increases these biases for WRF/Chem during all field campaigns. The large differences in SST, LHF, and SHF between the two models lead to different radiative, cloud, meteorological, and chemical predictions. WRF/Chem-ROMS generally performs better in terms of statistics and temporal variations for temperature and relative humidity at 2 m, wind speed and direction at 10 m, and precipitation. The percentage differences in simulated surface concentrations between the two models are mostly in the range of ±10% for CO, OH, and O₃, ±25% for HCHO, ±30% for NO₂, ±35% for H₂O₂, ±50% for SO₂, ±60% for isoprene and terpenes, ±15% for PM_2.5, and ±12% for PM₁₀. WRF/Chem-ROMS at 3 km resolution slightly improves the statistical performance of many surface and column concentrations. WRF/Chem simulations with satellite-constrained boundary conditions (BCONs) improve the spatial distributions and magnitudes of column CO for all field campaigns and slightly improve those of the column NO₂ for SPS1 and SPS2, column HCHO for SPS1 and MUMBA, and column O₃ for SPS2 at 3 km over the Greater Sydney area. The satellite-constrained chemical BCONs reduce the model biases of surface CO, NO, and O₃ predictions at 3 km for all field campaigns, surface PM_2.5 predictions at 3 km for SPS1 and MUMBA, and surface PM₁₀ predictions at all grid resolutions for all field campaigns. A more important role of chemical BCONs in the Southern Hemisphere, compared to that in the Northern Hemisphere reported in this work, indicates a crucial need in developing more realistic chemical BCONs for O₃ in the relatively clean SH. Full article

Warm Sector Torrential Rains (WSTRs) occurring during the outbreak of the monsoon in May of 2015 in South China were studied using surface automatic weather observational data, sounding, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis interim Data (ERA-interim), satellite and radar data, and a four-level nested grid simulation with the finest grid spacing of 1 km using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The results show that the extreme precipitation event, which had maximum rainfall amounts of 406.3 mm in 10 h and 542.2 mm in 24 h on 20 May 2015, and was characterized by its rapid development and its highly concentrated and long duration of heavy rainfall, occurred over the trumpet-shaped topography of Haifeng. The simulation results indicated that the South China Sea (SCS) atmospheric moisture transportation (AMT) was crucial in triggering the precipitation of the WSTR over South China. The simulation of the WSTR was conducted by using the total energy-mass flux scheme (TEMF), which provided a reasonable simulation of the circulation and the vertical profile in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) as well as the estimation of the precipitation. The AMT, which extends from the Beibu Gulf and the South China Sea to the coastal areas and provides Shanwei with a considerable amount of moisture in the boundary layer, and the effects within the PBL, which include orographic effects, an extra low-level jet, and a high-energy tongue characterized by a high-potential pseudo-equivalent temperature tongue with a warm and moist southwesterly wind, were the important large-scale factors causing the WSTR. Full article