Search Results (40)

Flood hazards and their disastrous consequences disrupt economic activity and threaten human lives globally. From a remote sensing perspective, since floods are often triggered by extreme climatic events, such as heavy rainstorms or tropical cyclones, the efficacy of using optical remote sensing data for disaster and damage mapping is significantly compromised. In many flood events, obtaining cloud-free images covering the affected area remains challenging. Nonetheless, considering that floods are the most frequent type of natural disaster on Earth, optical remote sensing data should be fully exploited. In this article, firstly, we will present a critical review of remote sensing data and machine learning methods for global flood-induced damage detection and mapping. We will primarily consider two types of remote sensing data: moderate-resolution multi-spectral data and high-resolution true-color or panchromatic data. Big and semantic databases available for advanced machine learning to date will be introduced. We will develop a set of best-use case scenarios for using these two data types to conduct water-body and built-up area mapping with no to moderate cloud coverage. We will cross-verify traditional machine learning and current deep learning methods and provide both benchmark databases and algorithms for the research community. Last, with this suite of data and algorithms, we will demonstrate the development of a cloud-computing-supported computing gateway, which houses the services of both our remote-sensing-based machine learning engine and a web-based user interface. Under this gateway, optical satellite data will be retrieved based on a global flood alerting system. Near-real-time pre- and post-event flood analytics are then showcased for end-user decision-making, providing insights such as the extent of severely flooded areas, an estimated number of affected buildings, and spatial trends of damage. In summary, this paper’s novel contributions include (1) a critical synthesis of operational readiness in flood mapping, (2) a multi-sensor-aware review of optical limitations, (3) the deployment of a lightweight ML pipeline for near-real-time mapping, and (4) a proposal of the GloFIM platform for field-level disaster support. Full article

Tropical cyclones can severely disturb shallow, continental shelf ecosystems, affecting habitat structure, diversity, and ecosystem services. This study examines the impacts of Hurricane Ian on the Southwest Florida Shelf by assessing water quality, substrate type, and epibenthic and microbial community characteristics at eight sites (3 to 20 m in depth) before and after Ian’s passage in 2022. Hurricane Ian drastically changed substrate type and biotic cover, scouring away epibenthos and/or burying hard substrates in mud and sand, especially at mid depth (10 m) sites (92–98% loss). Following Hurricane Ian, the greatest losses were observed in fleshy macroalgae (58%), calcareous green algae (100%), seagrass (100%), sessile invertebrates (77%), and stony coral communities (71%), while soft coral (17%) and sponge communities (45%) were more resistant. After Ian, turbidity, chromophoric dissolved organic matter, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus increased at most sites, while total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and silica decreased. Microbial communities changed significantly post Ian, with estuary-associated taxa expanding further offshore. The results show that the shelf ecosystem is highly susceptible to disturbances from waves, deposition and erosion, and water quality changes caused by mixing and coastal discharge. More routine monitoring of this environment is necessary to understand the long-term patterns of these disturbances, their interactions, and how they influence the resilience and recovery processes of shelf ecosystems. Full article

Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB) cyclones around the Indian subcontinent cause widespread floods and other natural hazards. There is no single convincing answer to this puzzle in the era of global warming. The warming of the western and central Indian Ocean is one of the few prominent features of local warming. The availability of moisture in the atmosphere in the last decade is an important factor in the rapid intensification and strengthening of tropical cyclones (TCs) before landfall. Essentially, the AS basin has shown an upward trend in the number and intensity of very severe cyclones during the period of 2009–2019. The decadal variation (1991–2001, 2002–2011, and 2012–2021) in SST, vorticity, wind shear, and moisture is primarily responsible for the genesis and intensification of cyclones during the post-monsoon season (October–November–December) over the AS. The results showed that slight changes in wind conditions, such as increased wind shear and the northward shift of the Asian Jet Stream over the region, facilitate TC formation. Full article

Of all meteorological events, Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are by far the costliest of natural hazards around the globe. They typically lose their strength quite rapidly once making landfall. Recent studies have revealed that TCs, even degrading below TC strength after landfall, can survive for prolonged periods and still exert a significant impact as Post-Tropical Cyclones (PTCs). However, the widely used TC best track datasets, including the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, do not consistently track TCs for long enough following landfall to include complete PTC tracks. The absence of tracking limits our understanding of the overall TC-related impacts. In this study, we developed a semi-automatic tracking algorithm using satellite imagery and reanalysis data to extend TC tracks beyond the best track dataset until dissipation overland. Based on all landfalling TCs for the period 1990–2020 in Australia, these TCs can be further tracked overland for an additional 1.6 days on average, with a maximum of 15 days, since the last record in best track datasets. Although the intensity of Australian landfalling TCs has declined over the 30 years, they continue to linger over land for similar durations before dissipation, suggesting an increasing likelihood of favorable land conditions for TCs and PTCs. Full article

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are natural hazards causing extensive damage to society, infrastructure, and the natural environment. Due to the multi-hazardous nature of TCs, comprehensive risk assessments are essential to understanding how to better prepare for potential impacts. This study develops an integrated methodology for TC multi-hazard risk assessment that utilises the following individual assessments of key TC risk components: a variable enhanced bathtub model (VeBTM) for storm surge-driven hazards, a random forest (RF) machine learning model for rainfall-induced flooding, and indicator-based indices for exposure and vulnerability assessments. To evaluate the methodology, the regions affected by TC Debbie (2017) for Queensland and TC Winston (2016) for Fiji’s main island of Viti Levu were used as proof-of-concept case studies. The results showed that areas with the highest risk of TC impacts were close to waterbodies, such as at the coastline and along riverine areas. For the Queensland study region, coastal populated areas showed levels of “high”, “very high”, and “extreme” risk, specifically in Bowen and East Mackay, driven by the social and infrastructural domains of TC risk components. For Viti Levu, areas classified with an “extreme” risk to TCs are primarily areas that experienced coastal inundation, with Lautoka and Vuda found to be especially at risk to TCs. Additionally, the Fiji case study was validated using post-disaster damage data, and a statistically significant correlation of 0.40 between TC Winston-attributed damage and each tikina’s overall risk was identified. Ultimately, this study serves as a prospective framework for assessing TC risk, capable of producing results that can assist decision-makers in developing targeted TC risk management and resilience strategies for disaster risk reduction. Full article

Climate change is driving regime shifts across ecosystems, exposing species to novel challenges of extreme weather, altered disturbances, food web disruptions, and habitat loss. For disturbance-dependent species like the endangered piping plover (Charadrius melodus), these shifts present both opportunities and risks. While most piping plover populations show net growth following storm-driven habitat creation, similar gains have not been documented in the Eastern Canadian breeding unit. In September 2022, post-tropical cyclone Fiona caused record coastal changes in this region, prompting our study of population and nesting responses within the central subunit of Prince Edward Island (PEI). Using satellite imagery and machine learning tools, we mapped storm-induced change in open sand habitat on PEI and compared nest outcomes across habitat conditions from 2020 to 2023. Open sand areas increased by 9–12 months post-storm, primarily through landward beach expansion. However, the following breeding season showed no change in abundance, minimal use of new habitats, and mixed nest success. Across study years, backshore zones, pure sand habitats, and sandspits/sandbars had lower apparent nest success, while washover zones, sparsely vegetated areas, and wider beaches had higher success. Following PTC Fiona, nest success on terminal spits declined sharply, dropping from 45–55% of nests hatched in pre-storm years to just 5%, partly due to increased flooding. This suggests reduced suitability, possibly from storm-induced changes to beach elevation or slope. Further analyses incorporating geomorphological and ecological data are needed to determine whether the availability of suitable habitat is limiting population growth. These findings highlight the importance of conserving and replicating critical habitat features to support piping plover recovery in vulnerable areas. Full article

Tropical cyclone prediction is often described as chaotic and unpredictable on time scales that cross into stochastic regimes. Predictions are bounded by the depth of understanding and the limitations of the physical dynamics that govern them. Slight changes in global atmospheric and oceanic conditions may significantly alter tropical cyclone genesis regions and intensity. The purpose of this paper is to characterize the predictability of seasonal storm characteristics in the North Atlantic basin by utilizing the Largest Lyapunov Exponent and Takens’ Theorem, which is rarely used in weather or climatological analysis. This is conducted for a post-weather satellite era (1960–2022). Based on the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) time series in the North Atlantic basin, cyclone activity can be described as predictable at certain timescales. Insight and understanding into this coupled non-linear system through an analysis of time delay, embedded dimension, and Lyapunov exponent-reconstructed phase space have provided critical information for the system’s predictability. Full article

The current study looks at how the characteristics of Arabian Sea tropical cyclones (TCs) change over time. The results show that in the pre-monsoon (April–June) and the post-monsoon (October–December), the activity of TCs > 34 knots, including cyclonic storm (CS), severe cyclonic storm (SCS), very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS), extreme severe cyclonic storm (ESCS), and super cyclonic storm (Sup. CS), has significantly increased, while the tendency of TCs < 34 knots, depressions and deep depressions (Ds) over the Arabian Sea has only slightly increased. Most of the TC activity in the first two decades (1982–2001) over the Arabian Sea activated on the eastern side, while in the last two decades (2002–2021), there was an expansion toward the southwest region of the Arabian Sea, especially in the post-monsoon season. The composite analysis of environmental parameters over the Arabian Sea reveals that the negative anomalies of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the positive anomalies of relative humidity at 500 hPa (RH–500 hPa) in the first decade (1982–1991) and the second decade (1992–2001) are more concentrated on the eastern side of the Arabian Sea, leading to increased activity for TCs. Decades three (2002–2011) and four (2012–2021) demonstrated a wide distribution of weak vertical wind shear (VWS) and strong convection (OLR and RH–500 hPa) over the Arabian Sea basin. This led to TCs occurring more frequently and stronger, especially in the post-monsoon season. SST over the Arabian Sea was sufficient for tropical storm activity (≥26.5 °C) for both typical seasons. Full article

Tropical cyclones (TC) are dynamic atmospheric phenomena featuring extreme low-pressure systems and powerful winds, known for their devastating impacts on weather and the environment. The main purpose of this paper is to consider the subtle involvement of TCs in the air quality index (AQI), focusing on aspects related to the air quality before, during and after cyclones. This research employs multimodal methods, which include meteorological data and different satellite observations. Deep learning approaches, i.e., ConvLSTM, CNN and Real-ESRGAN models, are combined with a regression model to analyze the temporal variability in the air quality associated with tropical cyclones. Deep learning models are deployed to uncover complex patterns and non-linear interdependencies between cyclones’ features and the AQI to give predictive insights into the air quality fluctuations throughout the different stages of tropical cyclones. Furthermore, this study explores the aftermaths of TCs in terms of the air quality with respect to post-cyclone recovery. The findings offer an enhanced view of the role of TCs in the regional or global air quality, which will be useful for policymakers, meteorologists and environmental researchers. Utilizing a CNN for tropical cyclone (TC) classification and the extra trees regressor (ETR) for AQI prediction results in accuracy of 92.02% for the CNN and an $R^2$ of 83.33% for the ETR. Hence, this work adds to our knowledge and enlightens us on the complex interactions between TCs and the air quality, highlighting wider public health concerns regarding climate adaptation and urban renewal. Full article

The ECMWF‘s ensemble (ECEPS) predictions are documented for the lifecycles of six tropical cyclones (TCs) that formed during a long-lasting Rossby wave breaking event in the western North Pacific. All six TC tracks started between 20° N and 25° N, and between 136° E and 160° E. All five typhoons recurved north of 30° N, and the three typhoons that did not make landfall had long tracks to 50° N and beyond. The ECEPS weighted mean vector motion track forecasts from pre-formation onward are quite accurate, with track forecast spreads that are primarily related to initial position uncertainties. The ECEPS intensity forecasts have been validated relative to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Working Best Track (WBT) intensities (when available). The key results for Tokage (11 W) were the ECEPS forecasts of the intensification to a peak intensity of 100 kt, and then a rapid decay as a cold-core cyclone. For Hinnamnor (12 W), the key result was the ECEPS intensity forecasts during the post-extratropical transition period when Hinnamnor was rapidly translating poleward through the Japan Sea. For Muifa (14 W), the key advantage of the ECEPS was that intensity guidance was provided for longer periods than the JTWC 5-day forecast. The most intriguing aspect of the ECEPS forecasts for post-Merbok (15 W) was its prediction of a transition to an intense, warm-core vortex after Merbok had moved beyond 50° N and was headed toward the Aleutian Islands. The most disappointing result was that the ECEPS over-predicted the slow intensification rate of Nanmadol (16 W) until the time-to-typhoon (T2TY), but then failed to predict the large rapid intensification (RI) following the T2TY. The tentative conclusion is that the ECEPS model‘s physics are not capable of predicting the inner-core spin-up rates when a small inner-core vortex is undergoing large RI. Full article

Mapping spatial data is essential for the monitoring of flooded areas, prognosis of hazards and prevention of flood risks. The Ganges River Delta, Bangladesh, is the world’s largest river delta and is prone to floods that impact social–natural systems through losses of lives and damage to infrastructure and landscapes. Millions of people living in this region are vulnerable to repetitive floods due to exposure, high susceptibility and low resilience. Cumulative effects of the monsoon climate, repetitive rainfall, tropical cyclones and the hydrogeologic setting of the Ganges River Delta increase probability of floods. While engineering methods of flood mitigation include practical solutions (technical construction of dams, bridges and hydraulic drains), regulation of traffic and land planning support systems, geoinformation methods rely on the modelling of remote sensing (RS) data to evaluate the dynamics of flood hazards. Geoinformation is indispensable for mapping catchments of flooded areas and visualization of affected regions in real-time flood monitoring, in addition to implementing and developing emergency plans and vulnerability assessment through warning systems supported by RS data. In this regard, this study used RS data to monitor the southern segment of the Ganges River Delta. Multispectral Landsat 8-9 OLI/TIRS satellite images were evaluated in flood (March) and post-flood (November) periods for analysis of flood extent and landscape changes. Deep Learning (DL) algorithms of GRASS GIS and modules of qualitative and quantitative analysis were used as advanced methods of satellite image processing. The results constitute a series of maps based on the classified images for the monitoring of floods in the Ganges River Delta. Full article

Tropical cyclones, one of the most extreme and destructive meteorological incidents, cause extensive damage to lives and livelihoods worldwide. This study utilized remotely sensed data along with multi-criteria decision-making, geospatial techniques, and major cyclonic events Aila, Amphan, and Yaas to identify the changes in the vulnerability of cyclone-induced floods in the 19 community development blocks of Indian Sundarbans in the years 2009–2010, 2020–2021, and 2021–2022 (the post-cyclonic timespan). The Sundarbans are a distinctive bioclimatic region located in a characteristic geographical setting along the West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts. In this area, several cyclonic storms had an impact between 2009 and 2022. Using the variables NDVI, MNDWI, NDMI, NDBI, BSI, and NDTI, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Thermal Infrared Sensor, Resourcesat LISS-III, and AWiFS data were primarily utilized to map the cyclonic flood-effective zones in the research area. The findings indicated that the coastline, which was most impacted by tropical storms, has significant physical susceptibility to floods, as determined by the AHP-weighted overlay analysis. Significant positive relationships (p < 0.05, n = 19 administrative units) were observed between mangrove damage, NDFI, and physical flood susceptibility indicators. Mangrove damage increased with an increase in the flood index, and vice versa. To mitigate the consequences and impacts of the vulnerability of cyclonic events, subsequent flood occurrences, and mangrove damage in the Sundarbans, a ground-level implementation of disaster management plans proposed by the associated state government, integrated measures of cyclone forecasting, mangrove plantation, coastal conservation, flood preparedness, mitigation, and management by the Sundarban Development Board are appreciably recommended. Full article

Heavy rainfall due to tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) adversely impacts nations frequently. Though extensive research has focused on TCs in the NIO, less attention has been given to the connection between TCs and extreme events in Sri Lanka. This study examined atmospheric characteristics during sixteen extreme events, focusing on linkages between TCs, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and mechanisms behind heavy rainfall associated with TCs over Sri Lanka. The results showed that in the pre-monsoon period, TCs move northward with high water vapor (WV) content accumulated in the Southern Hemisphere. This main WV flow over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) is connected with TCs, causing considerable damage in the southwestern part of Sri Lanka. During negative IOD years, strong westerly winds create cyclonic circulations on either side of the equator. Conversely, during the post-monsoon period, the IOD phase has no significant effect. TCs generally followed westward tracks, supported by winds from the Northern Hemisphere, and caused heavy rainfall in the Eastern, Northern, and Northcentral provinces in Sri Lanka. These TCs are isolated from the main WV flow over EIO. Such observed common characteristics during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons are key factors contributing to extreme rainfall in Sri Lanka. Full article

Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the deadliest natural meteorological hazards with destructive winds and heavy rains, resulting losses often reach billions of dollars, imposing a substantial and long-lasting burden on both local and national economies. The El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction, is known to significantly impact cyclonic systems over global ocean basins. This study investigates the variability of TC activity in the presence of ENSO over the North Indian Ocean (NIO), comprising the Arabian Sea (ARB) and the Bay of Bengal (BOB) basins during the pre- and post-monsoon season, using accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over the last 29 years. Our analysis reveals a significant rise in tropical cyclone energy intensity over the past two decades, with eight of the ten most active years occurring since the 2000s. Total ACE over the NIO is found to be higher in La-Niña. Higher ACE observed over ARB is strongly associated with a combination of elevated sea surface height (SSH) anomaly and low vertical wind shear during the El-Niño episodes, with higher sea surface temperatures (SST) during the post-monsoon season. Whereas in the BOB, El Niño not only reduces ACE, but also decreases basin-wide variability, and more pronounced effects during the post-monsoon season, coinciding with warmer SST and higher SSH along the coast during La-Niña. Full article

Better understanding of roll vortices that often occur in the tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layer is required to improve forecasts of TC intensification and the granularity of damaging surface winds. It is especially important to characterize rolls over a wide variety of TCs, their environments, and TC development phases. Boundary layer rolls have been observed in TCs since 1998, but only recently in a TC during its extratropical transition phase. The work reported herein is the first to analyze how boundary layer rolls are distributed among the extratropical features of a transitioning TC. To this end, routine and special operational observations recorded during landfalling Post-tropical Cyclone Sandy (2012) were leveraged, including radar, surface, rawinsonde, and aircraft reconnaissance observations. Large rolls occurred in cold airstreams, both in the cold conveyor belt within the northwestern storm quadrant and in the secluding airstream within the northeastern quadrant, but roll presence was much diminished within the intervening warm sector. The large size of the rolls and their confinement to cold airstreams is attributed to an optimum inflow layer depth, which is deep enough below a strong stable layer to accommodate deep and strong positive radial wind shear to promote roll growth, yet not so deep as to limit radial wind shear magnitude, as occurred in the warm sector. Full article