Search Results (639)

In regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA), the formation of homogeneous regions is commonly regarded as a necessary condition for reliable regional flood estimation. However, achieving true homogeneity is often challenging in practice. This study investigates the formation of homogeneous regions by applying two region delineation approaches—fixed regions and the region-of-influence (ROI) method—accompanied by the widely used heterogeneity measure (H₁) proposed by Hosking and Wallis. The analysis utilizes data from 201 stream gauging stations across southeast Australia, evaluating a total of 1211 candidate regions. The computed H₁-statistics range from 13 to 30 for fixed regions and from 6 to 30 for ROI-based regions, indicating a consistently high level of heterogeneity across the study area. This suggests that the assumption of homogeneity may not be realistic for many parts of southeast Australia. Moreover, regression equations developed for regional flood estimation yield absolute median relative errors between 29% and 56%, with a median of 39% across return periods from 2 to 100 years. These findings underscore the limitations of relying solely on homogeneity in regional flood modelling and highlight the need for more flexible and robust approaches in RFFA. The outcomes of this research have significant implications for improving flood estimation practices and are expected to contribute to future enhancements of the Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) national guidelines. Full article

Both climate change and human activities have had a significant impact on hydrological processes. Quantification of affecting factors on river regime changes is scientifically essential for understanding hydrological processes and sustainable water resources management in the basins. This study investigates the features of variations in meteorological and hydrological variables in the Liuhe River Basin (LRB) from 1956 to 2020 based on various observed records and statistical methods. It then quantitatively identifies the possible impacts of climate variability and human activities on runoff in the LRB using the empirical methods and the Budyko framework. The results show that (1) the runoff demonstrates a significantly decreasing trend over the past 65 years, but the rainfall has no obvious trend with significant interannual fluctuations, and potential evapotranspiration exhibits a weekly decreasing trend, particularly in summer. (2) The runoff series can be divided into two periods, i.e., the baseline (1956–1969) and change (1970–2020) periods, and the change period can also be divided into two stages, i.e., stage I (1970–1999) and stage II (2000–2020). (3) Human activities are the dominant factors in the runoff decline in the LRB, with the contribution rates being greater than 80% in the change period, particularly for stage II. The analysis of this study can provide a reference for the rational utilization of water resources in the LRB. Full article

With climate change, the frequency and severity of localized heavy rainfalls are increasing. Thus, for urban drainage networks (UDNs), particularly those in aging cities such as Seoul, Republic of Korea, flood risk management challenges are mounting. Conventional design standards typically apply uniform roughness coefficients based on new pipe conditions, neglecting the ongoing performance degradation from physical influences. This study introduces a methodology that systematically incorporates pipe age and size into roughness coefficient scenarios for higher-accuracy 1D–2D rainfall–runoff hydrologic–hydraulic simulations. Eleven roughness scenarios (a baseline and ten aging-based scenarios) are applied across seven UDNs using historical rainfall data. The most representative scenario (S3) is identified using a Euclidean distance metric combining the peak water-level error and root mean square error. For two rainfall events, S3 yields substantial increases in the simulated mean flood volumes (75.02% and 76.45%) compared with the baseline, while spatial analysis reveals significantly expanded inundation areas and increased flood depths. These findings underscore the critical impact of pipe deterioration on hydraulic capacity and demonstrate the importance of incorporating aging infrastructure into flood modeling and UDN design. This approach offers empirical support for updating UDN design standards for more resilient flood management. Full article

This study assesses the impact of climate change and glacier retreat on river runoff in the high-altitude Terek River Basin using the physically based ECOMAG hydrological model. Sensitivity experiments examined the influence of glaciation, precipitation, and air temperature on runoff variability. Results indicate that glacier retreat primarily affects streamflow in upper reaches during peak melt (July–October), while precipitation changes influence both annual runoff and peak flows (May–October). Rising temperatures shift snowmelt to earlier periods, increasing runoff in spring and autumn but reducing it in summer. The increase in autumn runoff is also due to the shift between solid and liquid precipitation, as warmer temperatures cause more precipitation to fall as rain, rather than snow. Scenario-based modeling incorporated projected glacier area changes (GloGEMflow-DD) and regional climate data (CORDEX) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Simulated runoff changes by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099) compared to the historical period (1977–2005) ranged from −2% to +5% under RCP2.6 and from −8% to +14% under RCP8.5. Analysis of runoff components (snowmelt, rainfall, and glacier melt) revealed that changes in river flow are largely determined by the elevation of snow and glacier accumulation zones and the rate of their degradation. The projected trends are consistent with current observations and emphasize the need for adaptive water resource management and risk mitigation strategies in glacier-fed catchments under climate change. Full article

The spatial distribution traits of microtopography exert a profound influence on the generation of runoff and sediment. Nevertheless, the underlying mechanism through which microtopography alterations, triggered by diverse factors, impact soil erosion remains largely elusive. In light of that, this study simulated conventional farming practices on the Loess Plateau: artificial backhoe, artificial digging, and contour tillage (CT), with no tillage (CK) designated as the control group. The objective was to meticulously investigate the variations in microtopography, runoff, and sediment yield under disparate treatment conditions, rainfall intensities (60 mm/h and 90 mm/h), and slope gradients (5°, 10°, and 20°). The principal findings were as follows: With the amplification of rainfall intensity, the elevation change rate and fractal dimension of various treatments generally exhibited an upward trend, whereas the structural ratio showed a downward tendency. As the slope gradient increased, the elevation change rate and structural ratio of different treatments typically increased. However, the fractal dimension displayed no conspicuous alteration at a rainfall intensity of 60 mm/h and a decreasing trend at 90 mm/h. Under different rainfall intensity scenarios, a robust linear correlation existed between the fractal dimension and both runoff and sediment yield (R² > 0.73), rendering it an outstanding parameter for estimating these variables within the scope of this research. Path analysis revealed that the indirect effect of microtopography on sediment yield, which was mediated by runoff, constituted 77.80–96.47% of the direct effect. Moreover, under different rainfall intensities, the alterations in runoff and sediment yield ensuing from unit-scale changes in the fractal dimension varied significantly. Specifically, at a rainfall intensity of 90 mm/h, these changes were 1.70-fold and 3.75-fold those at 60 mm/h, respectively. Overall, the CT treatment engendered the lowest runoff and sediment yield, along with the highest fractal dimension, thereby emerging as the most efficacious measure for soil and water conservation in this study. The research outcomes offer valuable perspectives for further elucidating the mechanisms through which tillage practices impinge upon soil erosion. Full article

Focusing on the Lingshan section of Guangxi’s Pinglu Canal, this study addresses frequent waterlogging during construction under subtropical monsoon rainfall. Human disturbances alter hydrological processes, causing project delays and economic losses. We developed a coupled Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 1D hydrological) and Hydrologic Engineering Center—River Analysis System 2D (HEC-RAS 2D hydrodynamic) model. High-resolution Unmanned Aerial Vehicle—Light Detection and Ranging (UAV-LiDAR) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) delineated sub-catchments, while the Green-Ampt model quantified soil conductivity decay. Synchronized runoff data drove high-resolution HEC-RAS 2D simulations of waterlogging evolution under design storms (1–100-year return periods) and a real event (10 May 2025). Key results: Water depth exhibits nonlinear growth with return period—slow at low intensities but accelerating beyond 50-year events, particularly at temporary road junctions where embankments impede flow. Additionally, intensive intermittent rainfall causes significant ponding at excavation pit-road intersections, and optimized drainage drastically shortens recession time. The study reveals a “rapid runoff generation–restricted convergence–prolonged ponding” mechanism under construction disturbance, validates the model’s capability for complex scenarios, and provides critical data for real-time waterlogging risk prediction and drainage optimization during the canal’s construction. Full article

Hydrological time series frequently exhibit periodic trends with variables such as rainfall, runoff, and evaporation rates often following annual cycles. Seasonal variations further contribute to the complexity of these data sets. A critical aspect of analyzing such phenomena is estimating realistic return intervals, making the precise determination of these values essential. Given this importance, selecting an appropriate probability distribution is paramount. To address this need, we introduce a flexible probability model specifically designed to capture periodicity in hydrological data. We thoroughly examine its fundamental mathematical and statistical properties, including the asymptotic behavior of the probability density function (PDF) and hazard rate function (HRF), to enhance predictive accuracy. Our analysis reveals that the PDF exhibits polynomial decay as $x\to \infty$, ensuring heavy-tailed behavior suitable for extreme events. The HRF demonstrates decreasing or non-monotonic trends, reflecting variable failure risks over time. Additionally, we conduct a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the estimation method. Based on these results, we refine return period estimates, providing more reliable and robust hydrological assessments. This approach ensures that the model not only fits observed data but also captures the underlying dynamics of hydrological extremes. Full article

Urban and peri-urban lakes are increasingly threatened by water quality degradation due to rising anthropogenic pressures and environmental variability. This study proposes an integrated framework that combines multi-source data and machine learning to estimate and monitor three key water quality parameters: turbidity, total dissolved solids (TDS), and biological oxygen demand (BOD). Field measurements from three lakes in West Bengal, India, Rabindra Sarovar, Mirikh Lake, and Hanuman Ghat Lake, were combined with Landsat-8 satellite imagery, meteorological data, and land use information. Three modeling scenarios were developed: (i) using only remote sensing indices, (ii) combining remote sensing indices with meteorological variables, and (iii) integrating remote sensing indices, meteorological data, and land use features. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to reduce dimensionality and redundancy. Machine learning models, namely, XGBoost, Decision Tree, and Ridge Regression, were trained and evaluated using R² and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) metrics. The third scenario outperformed the others, with Ridge Regression achieving the highest accuracy for BOD prediction (R² = 0.99). Spatiotemporal patterns revealed persistently high BOD levels along urban lake fringes and post-monsoon spikes in turbidity and TDS, especially in agriculturally influenced zones. These patterns were closely linked to land use practices, rainfall-driven runoff, and point-source pollution. This study underscores the effectiveness of remote sensing and machine learning as scalable tools for real-time water quality monitoring, promoting sustainability through informed lake management strategies in India. Full article

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) adjust to the underlying behavior in the dataset using a training rule or optimizer. The most popular first-and second-order optimizers, Adam (AD) and Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), were compared with the aim of predicting extreme flash floods of a runoff-dominated hydrological system. A fully connected multilayer perceptron with a shallow structure was used to reduce complexity and limit overfitting. The inputs of the ANN were determined by rainfall–water level cross-correlation analysis. For each optimizer, the hyperparameters of the ANN were selected using a grid search and the cross-validation score on a novel criterion (PERS PEAK) mixing the persistency (PERS) and the quality of flood-peak restitution (PEAK). For an extreme and unseen event used as a test set, LM outperformed AD by 25% on all performance criteria. The peak water level of this event, 66% greater than that of the training set, was predicted by 92% after more training iterations were done by the LM optimizer. This shows that the ANN can predict beyond the ranges of the training set, given the right optimizer. Nevertheless, the LM training time was up to five times longer than that of AD during grid search. Full article

African hydrological systems are incredibly complex and highly sensitive to climate variability. This review synthesizes observational data, remote sensing, and climate modeling to understand the interactions between fluvial processes, water cycle dynamics, and anthropogenic pressures. Currently, these systems are experiencing accelerating warming (+0.3 °C/decade), leading to more intense hydrological extremes and regionally varied responses. For example, East Africa has shown reversed temperature–moisture correlations since the Holocene onset, while West African rivers demonstrate nonlinear runoff sensitivity (a threefold reduction per unit decline in rainfall). Land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) are as impactful as climate change, with analysis from 1959–2014 revealing extensive conversion of primary non-forest land and a more than sixfold increase in the intensity of pastureland expansion by the early 21st century. Future projections, exemplified by studies in basins like Ethiopia’s Gilgel Gibe and Ghana’s Vea, indicate escalating aridity with significant reductions in surface runoff and groundwater recharge, increasing aquifer stress. These findings underscore the need for integrated adaptation strategies that leverage remote sensing, nature-based solutions, and transboundary governance to build resilient water futures across Africa’s diverse basins. Full article

Non-Newtonian debris flows represent a critical challenge for hydraulic infrastructure in mountainous regions, often causing significant damage and service disruption. However, current models typically simplify these flows as Newtonian, leading to inaccurate design assumptions. This study addresses this gap by comparing the hydraulic behavior of Newtonian and non-Newtonian flows in an alluvial fan, using the Amoray Gully in Apurímac, Peru, as a case study. This gully intersects the Interoceánica Sur national highway via a low-water crossing (baden), making it a relevant site for evaluating debris flow impacts on critical road infrastructure. The methodology integrates hydrological analysis, rheological characterization, and hydraulic modeling. QGIS 3.16 was used for watershed delineation and extraction of physiographic parameters, while a high-resolution topographic survey was conducted using an RTK drone. Rainfall-runoff modeling was performed in HEC-HMS 4.7 using 25 years of precipitation data, and hydraulic simulations were executed in HEC-RAS 6.6, incorporating rheological parameters and calibrated with the footprint of a historical event (5-year return period). Results show that traditional Newtonian models underestimate flow depth by 17% and overestimate velocity by 54%, primarily due to unaccounted particle-collision effects. Based on these findings, a multi-barrel circular culvert was designed to improve debris flow management. This study provides a replicable modeling framework for debris-prone watersheds and contributes to improving design standards in complex terrain. The proposed methodology and findings offer practical guidance for hydraulic design in mountainous terrain affected by debris flows, especially where infrastructure intersects active alluvial fans. Full article

Coastal climate processes that affect landscape hydrology and beach dynamics are studied using local and remote data sets near Cape Vidal (28.12° S, 32.55° E). The sporadic intra-seasonal pulsing of coastal runoff, vegetation, and winds is analyzed to understand sediment inputs and transport by near-shore wind-waves and currents. River-borne sediments, eroded coral substrates, and reworked beach sand are mobilized by frequent storms. Surf-zone currents ~0.4 m/s instill the northward transport of ~6 10⁵ kg/yr/m. An analysis of the mean annual cycle over the period of 1997–2024 indicates a crest of rainfall over the Umfolozi catchment during summer (Oct–Mar), whereas coastal suspended sediment, based on satellite red-band reflectivity, rises in winter (Apr–Sep) due to a deeper mixed layer and larger northward wave heights. Sediment input to the beaches near Cape Vidal exhibit a 3–6-year cycle of southeasterly waves and rainy weather associated with cool La Nina tropical sea temperatures. Beachfront sand dunes are wind-swept and release sediment at ~10³ m³/yr/m, which builds tall back-dunes and helps replenish the shoreline, especially during anticyclonic dry spells. A wind event in Nov 2018 is analyzed to quantify aeolian transport, and a flood in Jan–Feb 2025 is studied for river plumes that meet with stormy seas. Management efforts to limit development and recreational access have contributed to a sustainable coastal environment despite rising tides and inland temperatures. Full article

The hydrological processes of agricultural fields during the fallow season in east-central Mississippi remain poorly understood, due to the region’s unique rainfall patterns. This study utilized long-term rainfall records from 1924 to 2023 to evaluate runoff characteristics and the runoff response to various rainfall events during fallow seasons in Mississippi by applying the DRAINMOD model. The analysis revealed that the average rainfall during the fallow season was 760 mm over the past 100 years, accounting for 65% of the annual total. In dry, normal, and wet fallow seasons, the average rainfall was 528, 751, and 1010 mm, respectively, corresponding to runoff of 227, 388, and 602 mm. Runoff frequency increased with wetter weather conditions, rising from 16 events in dry seasons to 23 in normal seasons and 30 in wet seasons. Over the past century, runoff dynamics were predominantly regulated by high-intensity rainfall events during the fallow season. Very heavy rainfall events (mean frequency = 11 events) generated 215 mm of runoff and accounted for 53% of the total runoff, while extreme rainfall events (mean frequency = 2 events) contributed 135 mm of runoff, making up 34% of the total runoff. Water table depth played a critical role in shaping spring runoff dynamics. As the water table decreased from 46 mm in March to 80 mm in May, the soil pore space increased from 5 mm in March to 14 mm in May. This increased soil infiltration and water storage capacity, leading to a steady decline in runoff. The study found that the mean daily runoff frequency dropped from 13.5% in March to 7.6% in May, while monthly runoff decreased from 74 to 38 mm. Increased extreme rainfall (R95p) in April contributed over 45% of the total runoff and resulted in the highest daily mean runoff of 20 mm, compared to 18 mm in March and 16 mm in May. The results from this century-long historical weather data could be used to enhance field-scale water resource management, predict potential runoff risks, and optimize planting windows in the humid east-central Mississippi. Full article

This study explores the application of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model for river water level forecasting, emphasizing the critical role of hyper-parameters optimization. Similar to physical and numerical rainfall-runoff models, LSTM relies on parameters to drive its data-driven modeling process. The performance of such models is highly sensitive to the chosen hyper-parameters, making their optimization essential. To address this, three algorithms—Grid Search, Random Search, and Bayesian Search—were applied to identify the most effective hyper-parameter combinations. Cross-correlation analysis revealed that average rainfall had a stronger influence on river water levels than upstream point rainfall, leading to its selection as the model input. The optimization focused on five key hyper-parameters: neuron units, learning rate, dropout rate, number of epochs, and batch size. Results showed that, while Grid Search required the most computational time, both Random and Bayesian Search were more efficient. Notably, Bayesian Search yielded the best predictive performance with minimal time cost, making it the preferred optimization method. Additionally, reproducible LSTM simulations were conducted to ensure the consistency and practical applicability of the forecasting in real-world scenarios. Overall, Bayesian Search is recommended for optimizing LSTM models due to its balance of accuracy and computational efficiency in hydrological forecasting. Full article

Rainfall–runoff processes and flood propagation were quantified to clarify floodwater dynamics in the upper Tenryu River basin. The basin is characterized by contrasting runoff behaviors between its left- and right-bank subbasins and large upstream river storage created by gorge topography. Radar rainfall and dam inflow data were analyzed to determine the runoff characteristics, on which the rainfall–runoff simulation was based. A higher storage capacity was observed in the left-bank subbasins, while an exceptionally large specific discharge was observed in one of the right-bank subbasins after several hours of intense rainfall. Based on these findings, the basin-scale storage was quantitatively evaluated. Water level peaks in the main channel appeared earlier at downstream locations, indicating that tributary inflows strongly affect the flood peak timing. A two-dimensional unsteady model successfully reproduced this behavior and captured the delay in the flood wave speed due to the complex morphology of the Tenryu River. The average α value, representing the ratio of flood wave speed to flow velocity, was 1.38 over the 70 km study reach. This analysis enabled quantification of river channel storage and clarified its relative relationship to basin storage, showing that river channel storage is approximately 12% of basin storage. Full article