Search Results (537)

Under the “dual-carbon” strategic framework, the installed capacity of renewable energy sources has continuously increased, while that of conventional generation units has progressively decreased. This structural shift significantly diminishes the operational flexibility of power generation systems and intensifies grid imbalances caused by renewable energy volatility. To address these challenges, this study proposes a carbon-aware multi-timescale virtual power plant (VPP) scheduling framework with coordinated multi-energy integration, which operates through two sequential phases: day-ahead scheduling and intraday rolling optimization. In the day-ahead phase, demand response mechanisms are implemented to activate load-side regulation capabilities, coupled with information gap decision theory (IGDT) to quantify renewable energy uncertainties, thereby establishing optimal baseline schedules. During the intraday phase, rolling horizon optimization is executed based on updated short-term forecasts of renewable energy generation and load demand to determine final dispatch decisions. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves a 3.76% reduction in photovoltaic output fluctuations and 3.91% mitigation of wind power variability while maintaining economically viable scheduling costs. Specifically, the intraday optimization phase yields a 1.70% carbon emission reduction and a 7.72% decrease in power exchange costs, albeit with a 3.09% increase in operational costs attributable to power deviation penalties. Full article

The rising global demand for food and energy has led to growing attention to the nexus between food security and renewable energy. This study aims to investigate the impacts and shocks of renewable energy consumption, particularly solar and wind energy, on food availability and stability in Saudi Arabia, by assessing both short-term and long-term effects. We use the time series annual data covering the period (2000–2022) analyzed by applying the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model system and its environment, Granger causality, the forecast-error variance decompositions (FEVD), and the impulse response functions (IRFs). The VAR results indicated that wind renewable energy positively affects food availability; one unit of wind energy consumption will significantly increase food availability by 3.16% (Z value 2.017 at a 5% significance level), and no statistically significant coefficients are associated with food stability. Also, the results confirmed that one unit of renewable energy consumption from solar will significantly increase food stability by 36.5% in Saudi Arabia (Z-value 1.682 at a 10% significance level). The Granger causality results concluded that solar energy has a bidirectional Granger causality with food availability but not food stability. The FEVD results showed that solar energy shocks have more persistent impacts in explaining the rapid increase in food security than wind energy shocks in both the short and long term. The IRFs concluded that food availability has shown a positive and steady increase in response to wind energy. This study provides practical recommendations for policymakers to balance energy transition goals with food security concerns. Future research should explore emerging technologies in wind and solar energy that can enhance efficiency and sustainability while minimizing adverse effects on food security. Full article

Building operational energy consumption accounts for a significant share of global energy consumption, and it is crucial to promote renewable energy self-sufficiency and operational optimization for zero-carbon buildings. However, scheduling strategies relying on day-ahead forecasts have limitations, and ignoring the ambiguity of short-term source-load forecasts is prone to the risk of scheduling failures. To address this issue, this study proposes an intraday optimization method for zero-carbon buildings under the source-load fuzzy space, which innovatively constructs a fuzzy chance constraint model of Photovoltaic (PV) output and load demand, enforces energy self-sufficiency as a constraint, and establishes a multi-objective optimization framework with thermal comfort as the main objective and power adjustment balance as the sub-objective, so as to quantify the decision risk through intraday energy optimization. Experiments show that the proposed method quantifies the decision-maker’s risk preference through fuzzy opportunity constraints, balances conservatism and aggressive strategies, and improves thermal comfort while safeguarding energy independence, providing a risk-controllable scheduling paradigm for the decarbonized operation of buildings. Full article

As global energy demand continues to rise, accurate load forecasting has become increasingly crucial for power system operations. This study proposes a novel Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise-Fast Fourier Transform-inverted Transformer-Long Short-Term Memory (CEEMDAN-FFT-iTransformer-LSTM) methodological framework to address the challenges of component complexity and transient fluctuations in power load sequences. The framework initiates with CEEMDAN-based signal decomposition, which dissects the original load sequence into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) characterized by different temporal scales and frequencies, enabling differentiated processing of heterogeneous signal components. A subsequent application of Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) extracts discriminative frequency-domain features, thereby enriching the feature space with spectral information. The architecture employs an iTransformer module with multi-head self-attention mechanisms to capture high-frequency patterns in the most volatile IMFs, while a gated recurrent unit (LSTM) specializes in modeling low-frequency components with longer temporal dependencies. Experimental results demonstrate the proposed framework achieves superior performance with an average 80% improvement in R-squared ($R^2$), 40.1% lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and 54.1% reduced Mean Squared Error (RMSE) compared to other models. This advancement provides a robust computational tool for power grid operators, enabling optimal resource dispatch through enhanced prediction accuracy to reduce operational costs. The demonstrated capability to resolve multi-scale temporal dynamics suggests potential extensions to other forecasting tasks in energy systems involving complex temporal patterns. Full article

Maintaining a balance between electricity generation and consumption is vital for ensuring grid stability and preventing disruptions. Spatial load forecasting (SLF) predicts geographical electricity demand, thereby aiding in power system planning. However, conventional methods like multiple linear regression and autoregressive integrated moving average struggle to capture the complex spatiotemporal patterns in historical data. Advanced methods like spatiotemporal graph transformers, graph convolutional networks, and improved scale-limited dynamic time warping better capture these dependencies, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy. Despite the advancements, challenges persist, particularly in developing economies with limited reliable data. This paper presents a novel SLF approach that divides the grid into predefined clusters based on regional characteristics and economic activity. For each cluster, a customized long short-term memory (LSTM) model captures unique spatiotemporal dependencies for more accurate predictions. The proposed method was tested across five load clusters using real-world data from Cameroon’s National Electricity Transmission Company and Energy Utilities. The results, compared against a linear regression model, demonstrated the superior performance of the LSTM approach across metrics like the mean absolute percentage error, root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, and R² score. This approach highlights the potential for enhanced, localized load forecasting in regions with data constraints. Full article

Building energy management is crucial in reducing energy consumption and maintaining occupant comfort, especially in heating systems. However, achieving optimal space heating efficiency while maintaining consistent comfort presents significant challenges. Traditional methods often fail to balance energy consumption with thermal comfort, especially across multiple zones in buildings with varying operational demands. This study investigates the role of deep learning models in optimizing space heating while maintaining thermal comfort across multiple building zones. It aims to enhance heating efficiency by developing predictive models for building temperature and heating consumption, evaluating the effectiveness of different deep learning architectures, and analyzing the impact of model-driven heating optimization on energy savings and occupant comfort. To address this challenge, this study employs Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Transformer models to forecast area temperatures and predict space heating consumption. The proposed methodology leverages historical building temperature data, weather station measurements such as atmospheric pressure, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and solar radiation, along with other weather parameters, to develop accurate and reliable predictions. A two-stage deep learning process is utilized: first, temperature predictions are generated for different building zones, and second, these predictions are used to estimate global heating consumption. This study also employs grid search and cross-validation to optimize the model configurations and custom loss functions to ensure energy efficiency and occupant comfort. Results demonstrate that the Long Short-Term Memory and Transformer models outperform the Gated Recurrent Unit regarding heating reduction, with a 20.95% and 20.69% decrease, respectively, compared to actual consumption. This study contributes significantly to energy management by providing a deep learning-driven framework that enhances energy efficiency while maintaining thermal comfort across different building areas, thereby supporting sustainable and intelligent building operations. Full article

Tourism is a core sector of Singapore’s economy, contributing significantly to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment. Accurate tourism demand forecasting is essential for strategic planning, resource allocation, and economic stability, particularly in the post-COVID-19 era. This study develops a SARIMAX-based forecasting model to predict monthly visitor arrivals to Singapore, integrating web search data from Google Trends and external factors. To enhance model accuracy, a systematic selection process was applied to identify the effective subset of external variables. Results of the empirical experiments demonstrate that the proposed SARIMAX model outperforms traditional univariate models, including SARIMA, Holt–Winters, and Prophet, as well as machine learning-based approaches such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). When forecasting the 24-month period of 2023 and 2024, the proposed model achieves the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 7.32%. Full article

As globalization deepens and the digital economy rapidly develops, cross-border e-commerce, especially live-streaming e-commerce, has emerged as a significant driver of international trade growth. However, the highly unpredictable sales demand in this sector and external factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit have posed significant challenges in accurately forecasting sales within the UK live-streaming e-commerce market. To address these challenges, we propose a novel sales forecasting framework utilizing the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model. Our multimodal approach integrates diverse time series data, including historical sales, key opinion leader (KOL) influence, and seasonal patterns. The Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model demonstrated consistently lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Squared Error (MSE) across all forecasting horizons compared to other machine learning approaches, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Gated Recurrent Unit(GPU)-accelerated architectures. Furthermore, it exhibited significantly superior performance over traditional time-series methods such as the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. This research proposes a phased framework for short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting, providing a fresh perspective for product forecasting studies and offering significant theoretical support for cross-border e-commerce enterprises in product life cycle management. Full article

Accurate short-term power load forecasting (STPLF) is critical for balancing electricity supply–demand and ensuring grid reliability. To address the challenges of fluctuating power loads and inaccurate predictions by conventional methods, this paper presents a novel hybrid framework combining Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and the Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm (ISSA). First, the power load series is decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) via VMD, where the optimal decomposition order K is determined using permutation entropy (PE). Next, the decomposed IMFs and meteorological covariates are reconstructed into feature vectors, which are then input into the LSTM network for component-wise forecasting, and, finally, the prediction results of each component are reconstructed to obtain the final power load prediction result. The Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm (ISSA), which integrates piecewise chaotic mapping into population initialization to augment the global exploration capability, is employed to fine-tune LSTM hyperparameters, thereby enhancing the prediction precision. Finally, two case studies are conducted using Australian regional load data and Detu’an City historical load records. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model achieves reductions of 73.03% and 82.97% compared with the VMD-LSTM baseline, validating its superior predictive accuracy and cross-domain generalization capability. Full article

Mass customization makes it necessary to upgrade production planning systems to improve the flexibility and resilience of production planning in response to volatile demand. The ongoing development of digital twin technologies supports the upgrade of the production planning system. In this paper, we propose a data-driven methodology for Hierarchical Production Planning (HPP) that addresses the upgrade requests in the production management system of a fuel tank manufacturing workshop. The proposed methodology first introduces a novel hybrid neural network framework with symmetry that integrates a Long Short-Term Memory network and a Q-network (denoted as LSTM-Q network) for real-time iterative demand forecast. The symmetric framework balances the forward and backward flow of information, ensuring continuous extraction of historical order sequence information. Then, we develop two relax-and-fix (R&F) algorithms to solve the mathematical model for medium- and long-term planning. Finally, we use simulation and dispatching rules to realize real-time dynamic adjustment for short-term planning. The case study and numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed methodology effectively achieves systematic optimization of production planning. Full article

Electric power load forecasting is essential for the efficient operation and strategic planning of utilities. Decisions regarding the electric market, power generation, load management, and infrastructure development all rely on accurate load predictions. This work presents a novel methodology for day-ahead load forecasting. The approach employs a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM NN) trained on representative load and meteorological data from the region. Before training, the load dataset is grouped by its statistical seasonality through K-means clustering analysis. Clustering load demand, along with similar-day data management, enables more focused training of the LSTM network on uniform data subsets, enhancing the model’s ability to capture temporal patterns and reducing the complexity associated with high variability in demand data. A case study using hourly load demand time-series data provided by the Centro Nacional de Control de Energía (CENACE) is analyzed, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is calculated, showing lower MAPE than traditional methods. This hybrid approach demonstrates the potential of integrating clustering techniques with neural networks and representative meteorological data from the region to achieve more reliable and accurate regional day-ahead load forecasting. Full article

Space heating consumption prediction is critical for energy management and efficiency, directly impacting sustainability and efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Accurate models enable better demand forecasting, promote the use of green energy, and support decarbonization goals. However, existing models often lack precision due to limited feature sets, suboptimal algorithm choices, and limited access to weather data, which reduces generalizability. This study addresses these gaps by evaluating various Machine Learning and Deep Learning models, including K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Regression, Decision Trees, Linear Regression, XGBoost, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, AdaBoost, Long Short-Term Memory, and Gated Recurrent Units. We utilized space heating consumption data from the European Central Bank Headquarters office as a case study. We employed a methodology that involved splitting the features into three categories based on the correlation and evaluating model performance using Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error, and R-squared metrics. Results indicate that XGBoost consistently outperformed other models, particularly when utilizing all available features, achieving an R² value of 0.966 using the weather data from the building weather station. This model’s superior performance underscores the importance of comprehensive feature sets for accurate predictions. The significance of this study lies in its contribution to sustainable energy management practices. By improving the accuracy of space heating consumption forecasts, our approach supports the efficient use of green energy resources, aiding in the global efforts towards decarbonization and reducing carbon footprints in urban environments. Full article

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) significantly shape global climate systems by driving temperature rises, disrupting weather patterns, and intensifying environmental imbalances, with direct consequences for human life, including rising sea levels, extreme weather, and threats to food security. Accurate forecasting of GHG concentrations is crucial for crafting effective climate policies, curbing carbon emissions, and fostering sustainable development. However, current models often struggle to capture multi-scale temporal patterns and demand substantial computational resources, limiting their practicality. This study presents MST-GHF (Multi-Scale Temporal Greenhouse Gas Forecasting), an innovative framework that integrates daily and monthly CO₂ data through a multi-encoder architecture to address these challenges. It leverages an Input Attention encoder to manage short-term daily fluctuations, an Autoformer encoder to capture long-term monthly trends, and a Temporal Attention mechanism to ensure stability across scales. Evaluated on a fifty-year NOAA dataset from Mauna Loa, Barrow, American Samoa, and Antarctica, MST-GHF surpasses 14 baseline models, achieving a Test_R² of 0.9627 and a Test_MAPE of 1.47%, with notable stability in long-term forecasting. By providing precise GHG predictions, MST-GHF empowers policymakers with reliable data for crafting targeted climate policies and conducting scenario simulations enabling proactive adjustments to emission reduction strategies and enhancing sustainability by aligning interventions with long-term environmental goals. Its optimized computational efficiency, reducing resource demands compared to Transformer-based models, further strengthens sustainability in climate modeling, making it deployable in resource-limited settings. Ultimately, MST-GHF serves as a robust tool to mitigate GHG impacts on climate and human life, advancing sustainability across environmental and societal domains. Full article

Accurately forecasting load profiles, especially peak catching, is a challenge due to the stochastic nature of consumption. In this paper, we applied the following three models for forecasting: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM); Support Vector Regression (SVR); and the combined model, which is a blend of SVR, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Linear Regression (LR) to forecast 24 h-ahead load profiles. Household (HH), heat pump (HP), and electric vehicle (EV) loads are singular, and these were collectively considered with one-year load profiles. This study tackles the issue of accurately forecasting load profiles by evaluating LSTM, SVR, and an ensemble model for predicting energy consumption in HH, HP, and EV loads. A novel forecast correction mechanism is introduced, adjusting forecasts every eight hours to increase reliability. The findings highlight the potential of deep learning in enhancing energy demand forecasting, especially in identifying peak loads, which contributes to more stable and efficient grid operations. Visual and validation data were investigated, along with the models’ performances at different levels, such as off-peak, on-peak, and entirely. Among all models, LSTM performed slightly better in most of the factors, particularly in peak capturing. However, the blended model showed slightly better performance than LSTM for EV power load forecasting, with an on-peak mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 21.45%, compared to 29.24% and 22.02% for SVR and LSTM, respectively. Nevertheless, visual analysis clearly showed the strong ability of LSTM to capture peaks. This LSTM potential was also shown by the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE) during the on-peak period, with around 3–5% improvement compared to SVR and the blended model. Finally, LSTM was employed in predicting day-ahead load profiles using measured data from four grids and showed high potential in capturing peaks with MAPE values less than 10% for most of the grids. Full article

Microgrids facilitate the complementary and collaborative operation of various distributed energy resources. Implementing effective day-ahead scheduling strategies can significantly enhance the economic efficiency and operational stability of microgrid systems. In this study, the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network is first employed to forecast photovoltaic (PV) power generation and load demand, using operational data from a full-scale microgrid system. Subsequently, an optimization model for a full-scale PV–energy storage microgrid is developed, integrating a PV power generation system, a battery energy storage system, and a specific industrial load. The model aims to minimize the total daily operating cost of the system while satisfying a set of system operational constraints, with particular emphasis on the safety requirements for grid exchange power. The formulated optimization problem is then transformed into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model, which is solved using a computational solver to derive the day-ahead economic scheduling scheme. Finally, the proposed scheduling scheme is validated through field experiments conducted on the full-scale PV–energy storage microgrid system across various operational scenarios. By comparing the simulation results with the experimental outcomes, the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed day-ahead economic scheduling scheme for the microgrid are demonstrated. Full article