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18 pages, 5384 KB  
Article
Impact of Vegetation Type on Taxonomic and Functional Composition of Soil Microbial Communities in the Northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
by Xunxun Qiu, Guangchao Cao, Guangzhao Han, Qinglin Zhao, Shengkui Cao and Shuang Ji
Microorganisms 2025, 13(9), 2075; https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms13092075 (registering DOI) - 6 Sep 2025
Abstract
Soil microbial communities are pivotal in maintaining ecosystem functions, particularly in alpine regions with highly heterogeneous environmental conditions. However, the influence of vegetation type on soil microbial communities in high-elevation areas remains insufficiently understood. This study investigates the dynamics of soil microbial communities [...] Read more.
Soil microbial communities are pivotal in maintaining ecosystem functions, particularly in alpine regions with highly heterogeneous environmental conditions. However, the influence of vegetation type on soil microbial communities in high-elevation areas remains insufficiently understood. This study investigates the dynamics of soil microbial communities across grassland, shrubland, and forest ecosystems on the southern slope of the Qilian Mountains. Soil bacterial and fungal communities were examined using high-throughput 16S rRNA and ITS gene sequencing, and their potential ecological functions were inferred using the FAPROTAX and FUNGuild databases. Analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) based on Bray–Curtis distances revealed significant differences in bacterial and fungal community structures among vegetation types, with forest soils showing greater intra-group variability and more distinct microbial assemblages. Acidobacteriota and Proteobacteria were the dominant bacterial phyla, while Basidiomycota and Ascomycota predominated among fungi. Fungal communities in forest soils were dominated by ectomycorrhizal taxa, closely linked to coniferous forests dominated by Picea crassifolia. Overall, the structure and functional diversity of soil microbial communities were governed by soil physicochemical properties, particularly soil pH, which emerged as a key influencing factor. These findings deepen our understanding of microbial ecological processes in alpine environments and offer valuable insights for effective vegetation management and ecosystem conservation in mountainous regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Environmental Microbiology)
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18 pages, 34183 KB  
Article
Flash Flood Risk Classification Using GIS-Based Fractional Order k-Means Clustering Method
by Hanze Li, Jie Huang, Xinhai Zhang, Zhenzhu Meng, Yazhou Fan, Xiuguang Wu, Liang Wang, Linlin Hu and Jinxin Zhang
Fractal Fract. 2025, 9(9), 586; https://doi.org/10.3390/fractalfract9090586 - 4 Sep 2025
Abstract
Flash floods arise from the interaction of rugged topography, short-duration intense rainfall, and rapid flow concentration. Conventional risk mapping often builds empirical indices with expert-assigned weights or trains supervised models on historical event inventories—approaches that degrade in data-scarce regions. We propose a fully [...] Read more.
Flash floods arise from the interaction of rugged topography, short-duration intense rainfall, and rapid flow concentration. Conventional risk mapping often builds empirical indices with expert-assigned weights or trains supervised models on historical event inventories—approaches that degrade in data-scarce regions. We propose a fully data-driven, unsupervised Geographic Information System (GIS) framework based on fractional order k-means, which clusters multi-dimensional geospatial features without labeled flood records. Five raster layers—elevation, slope, aspect, 24 h maximum rainfall, and distance to the nearest stream—are normalized into a feature vector for each 30 m × 30 m grid cell. In a province-scale case study of Zhejiang, China, the resulting risk map aligns strongly with the observations: 95% of 1643 documented flash flood sites over the past 60 years fall within the combined high- and medium-risk zones, and 65% lie inside the high-risk class. These outcomes indicate that the fractional order distance metric captures physically realistic hazard gradients while remaining label-free. Because the workflow uses commonly available GIS inputs and open-source tooling, it is computationally efficient, reproducible, and readily transferable to other mountainous, data-poor settings. Beyond reducing subjective weighting inherent in index methods and the data demands of supervised learning, the framework offers a pragmatic baseline for regional planning and early-stage screening. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Probability and Statistics)
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26 pages, 18784 KB  
Article
Identifying Trade-Offs and Synergies in Land Use Functions and Exploring Their Driving Mechanisms in Plateau Mountain Urban Agglomerations: A Case Study of the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration
by Zhiyuan Ma, Yilin Lin, Junsan Zhao, Han Xue and Xiaojing Li
Land 2025, 14(9), 1755; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14091755 - 29 Aug 2025
Viewed by 288
Abstract
Revealing the trade-offs, synergies, and driving mechanisms among land use functions is essential for mitigating conflicts between functions, optimizing territorial spatial patterns, and providing policy support for regional sustainable development. Taking the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration as a case study, this study adopts [...] Read more.
Revealing the trade-offs, synergies, and driving mechanisms among land use functions is essential for mitigating conflicts between functions, optimizing territorial spatial patterns, and providing policy support for regional sustainable development. Taking the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration as a case study, this study adopts a grid-based evaluation unit and employs a multi-model fusion approach to systematically analyze the interaction mechanisms among land use functions. By integrating the Pearson correlation method and root mean square deviation (RMSD) model, the trade-off and synergy relationships and their spatiotemporal evolution were quantitatively assessed. The XGBoost–SHAP model and optimized parameter-based geographical detector (OPGD) were introduced to identify the nonlinear characteristics and interaction effects of influencing factors on land use function trade-offs and synergies. In addition, a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used to explore spatial heterogeneity in these effects. The results indicate that (1) from 2010 to 2020, the overall synergy between production and ecological functions (PF&EF) in the urban agglomeration was enhanced, while trade-offs between production and living functions (PF&LF) intensified, and the trade-off intensity between living and ecological functions (LF&EF) decreased. Significant spatial heterogeneity exists among land use function interactions: PF&EF and PF&LF trade-offs are concentrated in the central and eastern parts of the urban agglomeration, while LF&EF trade-offs are more scattered, mainly occurring in highly urbanized and ecologically sensitive areas; (2) the dominant factors influencing land use function trade-offs and synergies include precipitation, slope, land use intensity, elevation, NDVI, Shannon diversity index (SHDI), distance to county centers, and distance to expressways; (3) these dominant factors exhibit strong nonlinear effects and significant threshold responses in shaping trade-offs and synergies among land use functions; and that (4) compared with the OLS model, the GWR model demonstrated higher fitting accuracy. This reveals that the impacts of natural, socio-economic, and landscape pattern factors on land use function interactions are characterized by pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Full article
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24 pages, 7602 KB  
Article
Geospatial Landslide Risk Mapping Using AHP and GIS: A Case Study of the Utcubamba River Basin, Peru
by Cleyver A. Rivera, Sivmny V. Valqui-Reina, Lenny F. García-Naranjo, Candy Lisbeth Ocaña-Zúñiga, Erick A. Auquiñivin-Silva, Sandy R. Chapa-Gonza, Dennis Cieza-Tarrillo, Cristhiam G. Vergara and Alex J. Vergara
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(17), 9423; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15179423 - 28 Aug 2025
Viewed by 685
Abstract
This study examines the use of a spatial multi-criteria approach based on GIS and AHP techniques to model landslide risk in the Utcubamba river basin, Peru. The methodology consisted of selecting twelve triggering variables: slope angle, geology, precipitation, distance to faults, drainage density, [...] Read more.
This study examines the use of a spatial multi-criteria approach based on GIS and AHP techniques to model landslide risk in the Utcubamba river basin, Peru. The methodology consisted of selecting twelve triggering variables: slope angle, geology, precipitation, distance to faults, drainage density, TWI, relative relief, profile curve, land use, elevation, distance to roads, and distance to population centers. These variables were then analyzed using the AHP method and then integrated into a GIS environment, where the weighted linear combination (WLC) method was used to map landslide risk. The risk was categorized into five classes, ranging from very low (1) to very high (5). The main results indicate that 32.81% of the area analyzed in the Utcubamba river basin presents a high and very high risk of landslides. The high-risk areas are mainly located in the southern part of the basin and coincide with areas with steep slopes, high rainfall, and proximity to population centers or communication routes. The model generated was highly accurate (AUC of 0.82), confirming that the integration of the AHP method with GIS allows for the precise identification of critical areas, which is useful for territorial planning, the prioritization of interventions, and emergency management, making it a reliable and replicable methodology in other parts of Peru. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Geographic Information System (GIS) for Various Applications)
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17 pages, 3660 KB  
Article
Application of Self-Potential Monitoring in Landslide Early Warning: A Physical Simulation Study
by Chao Yang and Jichao Sun
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(16), 9037; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15169037 - 15 Aug 2025
Viewed by 330
Abstract
Despite the widespread deployment of inclinometers and GPS, an engineering gap remains for a low-cost, seepage-sensitive landslide early-warning technique. To explore the application of self-potential (SP) in landslide monitoring and early warning, a series of physical simulations were conducted, focusing on slope rainfall [...] Read more.
Despite the widespread deployment of inclinometers and GPS, an engineering gap remains for a low-cost, seepage-sensitive landslide early-warning technique. To explore the application of self-potential (SP) in landslide monitoring and early warning, a series of physical simulations were conducted, focusing on slope rainfall and slope cracking conditions. The self-potential signals were monitored using a custom-built STM32-based acquisition system, which provided continuous, real-time data with minimal noise. The relationship between self-potential signals and internal changes within the landslide body was analyzed, revealing that SP signals are highly sensitive to seepage, saturation, and structural changes within the slope. During slope rainfall simulations, the self-potential signals responded rapidly to changes in rainfall intensity, capturing the dynamic nature of seepage and saturation changes. A dynamic early-warning model was developed based on statistical methods, including sliding t-tests/Pettitt mutation tests and Mahalanobis distance test, to detect early signs of landslide instability. The model successfully identified significant changes in SP signals that corresponded to the onset of landslide movement, demonstrating the potential of self-potential for real-time landslide monitoring and early warning. This study highlights the effectiveness of self-potential monitoring in detecting early signs of landslide instability and suggests that SP signals can be a valuable addition to existing landslide monitoring systems. Full article
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26 pages, 3030 KB  
Article
Predicting Landslide Susceptibility Using Cost Function in Low-Relief Areas: A Case Study of the Urban Municipality of Attecoube (Abidjan, Ivory Coast)
by Frédéric Lorng Gnagne, Serge Schmitz, Hélène Boyossoro Kouadio, Aurélia Hubert-Ferrari, Jean Biémi and Alain Demoulin
Earth 2025, 6(3), 84; https://doi.org/10.3390/earth6030084 - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 536
Abstract
Landslides are among the most hazardous natural phenomena affecting Greater Abidjan, causing significant economic and social damage. Strategic planning supported by geographic information systems (GIS) can help mitigate potential losses and enhance disaster resilience. This study evaluates landslide susceptibility using logistic regression and [...] Read more.
Landslides are among the most hazardous natural phenomena affecting Greater Abidjan, causing significant economic and social damage. Strategic planning supported by geographic information systems (GIS) can help mitigate potential losses and enhance disaster resilience. This study evaluates landslide susceptibility using logistic regression and frequency ratio models. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising 54 mapped landslide scarps collected from June 2015 to July 2023, along with 16 thematic predictor variables, including altitude, slope, aspect, profile curvature, plan curvature, drainage area, distance to the drainage network, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and an urban-related layer. A high-resolution (5-m) digital elevation model (DEM), derived from multiple data sources, supports the spatial analysis. The landslide inventory was randomly divided into two subsets: 80% for model calibration and 20% for validation. After optimization and statistical testing, the selected thematic layers were integrated to produce a susceptibility map. The results indicate that 6.3% (0.7 km2) of the study area is classified as very highly susceptible. The proportion of the sample (61.2%) in this class had a frequency ratio estimated to be 20.2. Among the predictive indicators, altitude, slope, SE, S, NW, and NDVI were found to have a positive impact on landslide occurrence. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), demonstrating strong predictive capability. These findings can support informed land-use planning and risk reduction strategies in urban areas. Furthermore, the prediction model should be communicated to and understood by local authorities to facilitate disaster management. The cost function was adopted as a novel approach to delineate hazardous zones. Considering the landslide inventory period, the increasing hazard due to climate change, and the intensification of human activities, a reasoned choice of sample size was made. This informed decision enabled the production of an updated prediction map. Optimal thresholds were then derived to classify areas into high- and low-susceptibility categories. The prediction map will be useful to planners in helping them make decisions and implement protective measures. Full article
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10 pages, 3612 KB  
Communication
Comparison of Habitat Selection Models Between Habitat Utilization Intensity and Presence–Absence Data: A Case Study of the Chinese Pangolin
by Hongliang Dou, Ruiqi Gao, Fei Wu and Haiyang Gao
Biology 2025, 14(8), 976; https://doi.org/10.3390/biology14080976 - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 286
Abstract
Identifying habitat characteristics is essential for conserving critically endangered species. When quantifying species habitat characteristics, ignoring data types may lead to misunderstandings about species’ specific habitat requirements. This study focused on the critically endangered Chinese pangolin in Guangdong Province, China, and divided the [...] Read more.
Identifying habitat characteristics is essential for conserving critically endangered species. When quantifying species habitat characteristics, ignoring data types may lead to misunderstandings about species’ specific habitat requirements. This study focused on the critically endangered Chinese pangolin in Guangdong Province, China, and divided the study area into 600 m × 600 m grids based on its average home range. The burrow number within each grid was obtained through line transect surveys, with burrow numbers/line transect lengths used as direct indicators of habitat utilization intensity. The relationships with sixteen environmental variables, which could be divided into three categories, including topographic, human disturbance and land cover composition, were quantified using the GAM method. We also converted continuous data into binary data (0, 1), constructed GAMs and compared them with habitat utilization intensity models. Our results indicate that the habitat utilization intensity model identified profile curvature and slope as primary factors, showing a nonlinear response to profile curvature (Edf = 5.610, p = 0.014) and a positive relationship with slope (Edf = 1.000, p = 0.006). The presence–absence model emphasized distance to water (Edf = 1.000, p = 0.014), slope (Edf = 1.709, p = 0.043) and aspect (Edf = 2.000, p = 0.026). The intensity model explained significantly more deviance, captured complex nonlinear relationships and supported higher model complexity without overfitting. This study demonstrates that habitat utilization intensity data provides a more ecologically informative basis for in situ conservation (e.g., identifying core habitats), and the process from habitat selection to habitat utilization should be integrated to reveal species’ habitat characteristics. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Conservation Biology and Biodiversity)
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24 pages, 3066 KB  
Article
Urban Flood Susceptibility Mapping Using GIS and Analytical Hierarchy Process: Case of City of Uvira, Democratic Republic of Congo
by Isaac Bishikwabo, Hwaba Mambo, John Kowa Kamanda, Chérifa Abdelbaki, Modester Alfred Nanyunga and Navneet Kumar
GeoHazards 2025, 6(3), 38; https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards6030038 - 21 Jul 2025
Viewed by 846
Abstract
The city of Uvira, located in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), is increasingly experiencing flood events with devastating impacts on human life, infrastructure, and livelihoods. This study evaluates flood susceptibility in Uvira using Geographic Information Systems (GISs), and an Analytical Hierarchy [...] Read more.
The city of Uvira, located in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), is increasingly experiencing flood events with devastating impacts on human life, infrastructure, and livelihoods. This study evaluates flood susceptibility in Uvira using Geographic Information Systems (GISs), and an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)-based Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach. It integrates eight factors contributing to flood occurrence: distance from water bodies, elevation, slope, rainfall intensity, drainage density, soil type, topographic wetness index, and land use/land cover. The results indicate that proximity to water bodies, drainage density and slope are the most influential factors driving flood susceptibility in Uvira. Approximately 87.3% of the city’s land area is classified as having high to very high flood susceptibility, with the most affected zones concentrated along major rivers and the shoreline of Lake Tanganyika. The reliability of the AHP-derived weights is validated by a consistency ratio of 0.008, which falls below the acceptable threshold of 0.1. This research provides valuable insights to support urban planning and inform flood management strategies. Full article
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25 pages, 4994 KB  
Article
Dynamic Slope Stability Assessment Under Blast-Induced Ground Vibrations in Open-Pit Mines: A Pseudo-Static Limit Equilibrium Approach
by Sami Ullah, Gaofeng Ren, Yongxiang Ge, Muhammad Burhan Memon, Eric Munene Kinyua and Theoneste Ndayiragije
Sustainability 2025, 17(14), 6642; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17146642 - 21 Jul 2025
Viewed by 812
Abstract
Blasting is one of the most widely used and cost-effective techniques for rock excavation and fragmentation in open-pit mining, particularly for large-scale operations. However, repeated or poorly controlled blasting can generate excessive ground vibrations that threaten slope stability by causing structural damage, fracturing [...] Read more.
Blasting is one of the most widely used and cost-effective techniques for rock excavation and fragmentation in open-pit mining, particularly for large-scale operations. However, repeated or poorly controlled blasting can generate excessive ground vibrations that threaten slope stability by causing structural damage, fracturing of the rock mass, and potential failure. Evaluating the effects of blast-induced vibrations is essential to ensure safe and sustainable mining operations. This study investigates the impact of blasting-induced vibrations on slope stability at the Saindak Copper-Gold Open-Pit Mine in Pakistan. A comprehensive dataset was compiled, including field-monitored ground vibration measurements—specifically peak particle velocity (PPV) and key blast design parameters such as spacing (S), burden (B), stemming length (SL), maximum charge per delay (MCPD), and distance from the blast point (D). Geomechanical properties of slope-forming rock units were validated through laboratory testing. Slope stability was analyzed using pseudo-static limit equilibrium methods (LEMs) based on the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion, employing four approaches: Fellenius, Janbu, Bishop, and Spencer. Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses quantified the influence of blasting parameters on slope behavior, and sensitivity analysis determined the cumulative distribution of slope failure and dynamic response under increasing seismic loads. FoS values were calculated for both east and west pit slopes under static and dynamic conditions. Among all methods, Spencer consistently yielded the highest FoS values. Under static conditions, FoS was 1.502 for the east slope and 1.254 for the west. Under dynamic loading, FoS declined to 1.308 and 1.102, reductions of 12.9% and 11.3%, respectively, as calculated using the Spencer method. The east slope exhibited greater stability due to its gentler angle. Correlation analysis revealed that burden had a significant negative impact (r = −0.81) on stability. Sensitivity analysis showed that stability deteriorates notably when PPV exceeds 10.9 mm/s. Although daily blasting did not critically compromise stability, the west slope showed greater vulnerability, underscoring the need for stricter control of blasting energy to mitigate vibration-induced instability and promote long-term operational sustainability. Full article
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29 pages, 3782 KB  
Article
Land Use Evolution and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Shrinking Border Counties Based on the PLUS Model: A Case Study of Changbai County
by Bingxin Li, Chennan He, Xue Jiang, Qiang Zheng and Jiashuang Li
Sustainability 2025, 17(14), 6441; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17146441 - 14 Jul 2025
Viewed by 505
Abstract
The sharp decline in the population along the northeastern border poses a significant threat to the security of the region, the prosperity of border areas, and the stability of the social economy in our country. Effective management of human and land resources is [...] Read more.
The sharp decline in the population along the northeastern border poses a significant threat to the security of the region, the prosperity of border areas, and the stability of the social economy in our country. Effective management of human and land resources is crucial for the high-quality development of border areas. Taking Changbai County on the northeastern border as an example, based on multi-source data such as land use, the natural environment, climate conditions, transportation location, and social economy from 2000 to 2020, the land use transfer matrix, spatial kernel density, and PLUS model were used to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of land use and explore simulation scenarios and optimization strategies under different planning concepts. This study reveals the following: (1) During the study period, the construction land continued to increase, but the growth rate slowed down, mainly transferred from cultivated land and forest land, and the spatial structure evolved from a single center to a double center, with the core always concentrated along the border. (2) The distance to the port (transportation location), night light (social economy), slope (natural environment), and average annual temperature (climate conditions) are the main driving factors for the change in construction land, and the PLUS model can effectively simulate the land use trend under population contraction. (3) In the reduction scenario, the construction land decreased by 1.67 km2, the scale of Changbai Town slightly reduced, and the contraction around Malugou Town and Badagou Town was more significant. The study shows that the reduction scenario is more conducive to the population aggregation and industrial carrying capacity improvement of shrinking county towns, which is in line with the high-quality development needs of border areas in our country. Full article
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28 pages, 9666 KB  
Article
An Efficient Path Planning Algorithm Based on Delaunay Triangular NavMesh for Off-Road Vehicle Navigation
by Ting Tian, Huijing Wu, Haitao Wei, Fang Wu and Jiandong Shang
World Electr. Veh. J. 2025, 16(7), 382; https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj16070382 - 7 Jul 2025
Viewed by 612
Abstract
Off-road path planning involves navigating vehicles through areas lacking established road networks, which is critical for emergency response in disaster events, but is limited by the complex geographical environments in natural conditions. How to model the vehicle’s off-road mobility effectively and represent environments [...] Read more.
Off-road path planning involves navigating vehicles through areas lacking established road networks, which is critical for emergency response in disaster events, but is limited by the complex geographical environments in natural conditions. How to model the vehicle’s off-road mobility effectively and represent environments is critical for efficient path planning in off-road environments. This paper proposed an improved A* path planning algorithm based on a Delaunay triangular NavMesh model with off-road environment representation. Firstly, a land cover off-road mobility model is constructed to determine the navigable regions by quantifying the mobility of different geographical factors. This model maps passable areas by considering factors such as slope, elevation, and vegetation density and utilizes morphological operations to minimize mapping noise. Secondly, a Delaunay triangular NavMesh model is established to represent off-road environments. This mesh leverages Delaunay triangulation’s empty circle and maximum-minimum angle properties, which accurately represent irregular obstacles without compromising computational efficiency. Finally, an improved A* path planning algorithm is developed to find the optimal off-road mobility path from a start point to an end point, and identify a path triangle chain with which to calculate the shortest path. The improved road-off path planning A* algorithm proposed in this paper, based on the Delaunay triangulation navigation mesh, uses the Euclidean distance between the midpoint of the input edge and the midpoint of the output edge as the cost function g(n), and the Euclidean distance between the centroids of the current triangle and the goal as the heuristic function h(n). Considering that the improved road-off path planning A* algorithm could identify a chain of path triangles for calculating the shortest path, the funnel algorithm was then introduced to transform the path planning problem into a dynamic geometric problem, iteratively approximating the optimal path by maintaining an evolving funnel region, obtaining a shortest path closer to the Euclidean shortest path. Research results indicate that the proposed algorithms yield optimal path-planning results in terms of both time and distance. The navigation mesh-based path planning algorithm saves 5~20% of path length than hexagonal and 8-directional grid algorithms used widely in previous research by using only 1~60% of the original data loading. In general, the path planning algorithm is based on a national-level navigation mesh model, validated at the national scale through four cases representing typical natural and social landscapes in China. Although the algorithms are currently constrained by the limited data accessibility reflecting real-time transportation status, these findings highlight the generalizability and efficiency of the proposed off-road path-planning algorithm, which is useful for path-planning solutions for emergency operations, wilderness adventures, and mineral exploration. Full article
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25 pages, 7504 KB  
Article
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) for Flood Susceptibility Assessment in Seoul: Leveraging Evolutionary and Bayesian AutoML Optimization
by Kounghoon Nam, Youngkyu Lee, Sungsu Lee, Sungyoon Kim and Shuai Zhang
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(13), 2244; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17132244 - 30 Jun 2025
Viewed by 777
Abstract
This study aims to enhance the accuracy and interpretability of flood susceptibility mapping (FSM) in Seoul, South Korea, by integrating automated machine learning (AutoML) with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques. Ten topographic and environmental conditioning factors were selected as model inputs. We first [...] Read more.
This study aims to enhance the accuracy and interpretability of flood susceptibility mapping (FSM) in Seoul, South Korea, by integrating automated machine learning (AutoML) with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques. Ten topographic and environmental conditioning factors were selected as model inputs. We first employed the Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT), an evolutionary AutoML algorithm, to construct baseline ensemble models using Gradient Boosting (GB), Random Forest (RF), and XGBoost (XGB). These models were further fine-tuned using Bayesian optimization via Optuna. To interpret the model outcomes, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) was applied to analyze both the global and local contributions of each factor. The SHAP analysis revealed that lower elevation, slope, and stream distance, as well as higher stream density and built-up areas, were the most influential factors contributing to flood susceptibility. Moreover, interactions between these factors, such as built-up areas located on gentle slopes near streams, further intensified flood risk. The susceptibility maps were reclassified into five categories (very low to very high), and the GB model identified that approximately 15.047% of the study area falls under very-high-flood-risk zones. Among the models, the GB classifier achieved the highest performance, followed by XGB and RF. The proposed framework, which integrates TPOT, Optuna, and SHAP within an XAI pipeline, not only improves predictive capability but also offers transparent insights into feature behavior and model logic. These findings support more robust and interpretable flood risk assessments for effective disaster management in urban areas. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Artificial Intelligence for Natural Hazards (AI4NH))
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23 pages, 25599 KB  
Article
Numerical Simulation and Risk Assessment of Debris Flows in Suyukou Gully, Eastern Helan Mountains, China
by Guorui Wang, Hui Wang, Zheng He, Shichang Gao, Gang Zhang, Zhiyong Hu, Xiaofeng He, Yongfeng Gong and Jinkai Yan
Sustainability 2025, 17(13), 5984; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17135984 - 29 Jun 2025
Viewed by 614
Abstract
Suyukou Gully, located on the eastern slope of the Helan Mountains in northwest China, is a typical debris-flow-prone catchment characterized by a steep terrain, fractured bedrock, and abundant loose colluvial material. The area is subject to intense short-duration convective rainfall events, which often [...] Read more.
Suyukou Gully, located on the eastern slope of the Helan Mountains in northwest China, is a typical debris-flow-prone catchment characterized by a steep terrain, fractured bedrock, and abundant loose colluvial material. The area is subject to intense short-duration convective rainfall events, which often trigger destructive debris flows that threaten the Suyukou Scenic Area. To investigate the dynamics and risks associated with such events, this study employed the FLO-2D two-dimensional numerical model to simulate debris flow propagation, deposition, and hazard distribution under four rainfall return periods (10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-year scenarios). The modeling framework integrated high-resolution digital elevation data (original 5 m DEM resampled to 20 m grid), land-use classification, rainfall design intensities derived from regional storm atlases, and detailed field-based sediment characterization. Rheological and hydraulic parameters, including Manning’s roughness coefficient, yield stress, dynamic viscosity, and volume concentration, were calibrated using post-event geomorphic surveys and empirical formulations. The model was validated against field-observed deposition limits and flow depths, achieving a spatial accuracy within 350 m. Results show that the debris flow mobility and hazard intensity increased significantly with rainfall magnitude. Under the 100-year scenario, the peak discharge reached 1195.88 m3/s, with a maximum flow depth of 20.15 m and velocities exceeding 8.85 m·s−1, while the runout distance surpassed 5.1 km. Hazard zoning based on the depth–velocity (H × V) product indicated that over 76% of the affected area falls within the high-hazard zone. A vulnerability assessment incorporated exposure factors such as tourism infrastructure and population density, and a matrix-based risk classification revealed that 2.4% of the area is classified as high-risk, while 74.3% lies within the moderate-risk category. This study also proposed mitigation strategies, including structural measures (e.g., check dams and channel straightening) and non-structural approaches (e.g., early warning systems and land-use regulation). Overall, the research demonstrates the effectiveness of physically based modeling combined with field observations and a GIS analysis in understanding debris flow hazards and supports informed risk management and disaster preparedness in mountainous tourist regions. Full article
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21 pages, 7615 KB  
Article
A Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation Method Based on Deep Convolutional Neural Networks
by Zhiqiang Li, Jia Li, Xuyan Ma, Lei Guo, Long Li, Jiahao Dian, Lingshuai Kong and Huiguo Ye
Geosciences 2025, 15(7), 242; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15070242 - 27 Jun 2025
Viewed by 581
Abstract
Ice thickness is a key parameter for glacier mass estimations and glacier dynamics simulations. Multiple physical models have been developed by glaciologists to estimate glacier ice thickness. However, obtaining internal and basal glacier parameters required by physical models is challenging, often leading to [...] Read more.
Ice thickness is a key parameter for glacier mass estimations and glacier dynamics simulations. Multiple physical models have been developed by glaciologists to estimate glacier ice thickness. However, obtaining internal and basal glacier parameters required by physical models is challenging, often leading to simplified models that struggle to capture the nonlinear characteristics of ice flow and resulting in significant uncertainties. To address this, this study proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based deep learning model for glacier ice thickness estimation, named the Coordinate-Attentive Dense Glacier Ice Thickness Estimate Model (CADGITE). Based on in situ ice thickness measurements in the Swiss Alps, a CNN is designed to estimate glacier ice thickness by incorporating a new architecture that includes a Residual Coordinate Attention Block together with a Dense Connected Block, using the distance to glacier boundaries as a complement to inputs that include surface velocity, slope, and hypsometry. Taking ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements as a reference, the proposed model achieves a mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 24.28 m and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 37.95 m in Switzerland, outperforming mainstream physical models. When applied to 14 glaciers in High Mountain Asia, the model achieves an MAD of 20.91 m and an RMSE of 27.26 m compared to reference measurements, also exhibiting better performance than mainstream physical models. These comparisons demonstrate the good accuracy and cross-regional transferability of our approach, highlighting the potential of using deep learning-based methods for larger-scale glacier ice thickness estimation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Environment)
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Article
MaxEnt-Based Evaluation of Cultivated Land Suitability in the Lijiang River Basin, China
by Yu Lin, Wei Li, Xiangwen Cai, Min Wang, Wencui Xie and Yinglan Lu
Sustainability 2025, 17(13), 5875; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17135875 - 26 Jun 2025
Viewed by 309
Abstract
The Lijiang River Basin (LRB) is a karst ecosystem that presents unique challenges for agricultural land planning. Evaluating cultivated land suitability based on natural factors is critical for ensuring food security in this region. This study was based on the cultivated land distribution [...] Read more.
The Lijiang River Basin (LRB) is a karst ecosystem that presents unique challenges for agricultural land planning. Evaluating cultivated land suitability based on natural factors is critical for ensuring food security in this region. This study was based on the cultivated land distribution data of the LRB in the China Land-Use and Land-Cover Chang dataset, selecting 22 restriction factors across five dimensions: climate, topography, soil, hydrology, and social conditions, and the suitability of cultivated land (paddy fields and drylands) in the LRB was evaluated using the MaxEnt model to further identify the main restricting factors affecting the spatial distribution. The research showed that (1) For paddy fields, high-suitability areas covered 2875.05 km2, medium-suitability 1670.58 km2, low-suitability 3187.25 km2, and non-suitable 9368.46 km2. The main restriction factors were distance to villages, slope, surface gravel content, soil thickness, soil pH, and total phosphorus content. (2) For drylands, high-suitability areas covered 3282.3 km2, medium-suitability 2260.93 km2, low-suitability 4536.27 km2, and non-suitable 6836.85 km2. The main restriction factors were soil thickness, distance to roads, surface gravel content, elevation, soil pH, and soil texture. This research can provide a scientific basis for the layout of food security and planning agricultural land use in the LRB. Full article
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