Search Results (174)

Small-scale inland fisheries in the Amazon are critical for food security, yet their sustainability is increasingly threatened by overexploitation and environmental degradation. In data-limited contexts such as the northern Ecuadorian Amazon, the absence of continuous monitoring constrains the development of adaptive management strategies. This study develops an integrated socio-ecological baseline to support the establishment of fisheries agreements in five Indigenous communities of the Napo and Aguarico rivers. Through a participatory monitoring approach, we generated reproductive parameters (gonadosomatic index, fecundity, size at first maturity), population structure metrics, and length–weight relationships for key subsistence species across three hydrological phases. Reproductive investment exhibited marked seasonality, with peak gonadosomatic indices during rising waters in most species, identifying a critical period for protection. Life-history strategies ranged from high-fecundity periodic strategists to low-fecundity equilibrium species, implying differentiated vulnerability to harvesting. Community perceptions prioritized large migratory catfish and floodplain habitats, aligning with biological indicators of vulnerability. High performance in technical training demonstrated the feasibility of long-term local monitoring systems. By linking biological indicators with local ecological knowledge, this study proposes a pathway from baseline assessment to adaptive co-management. The framework presented here provides a transferable model for strengthening sustainability, governance, and food security in tropical small-scale fisheries facing persistent data limitations. Full article

As a crucial national ecological barrier, China’s Southern Collective Forest Region (SCFR) plays an essential role in maintaining regional ecological security and promoting sustainable development. Understanding the mechanisms driving the evolution of its ecosystem service value (ESV) is of great significance. Based on county-level data from 2000 to 2023, this study integrated the equivalent factor method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, the XGBoost-SHAP model, geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), and partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) to examine the spatio-temporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of ESV in the SCFR. The results showed that ESV in the SCFR exhibited an overall downward trend, with a cumulative loss of 1973.77 × 10⁸ CNY. This was primarily due to marked reductions in hydrological and climate regulation services. The spatial distribution of ESV exhibited a significant heterogeneity—higher in the southwestern and southeastern mountainous regions, and lower in the northern plains and coastal zones, with the center of gravity shifting first to the northeast and then to the southwest. Local spatial autocorrelation revealed relatively stable “High–High” and “Low–Low” clustering characteristics, where high-value clusters were consistently distributed in core forest zones, while low-value clusters overlapped highly with urban agglomerations. Socio-economic factors exerted a significantly stronger influence on ESV than natural factors. Population density (POP), land use intensity (LUI), and gross domestic product (GDP) were identified as the dominant drivers, exhibiting distinct non-linear threshold effects and significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity. PLS-SEM analysis further quantified LUI as the dominant direct inhibitory pathway on ESV, highlighting urbanization’s indirect negative effect mediated through intensified LUI. Meanwhile, terrain effects were confirmed to positively influence ESV indirectly by constraining LUI and modulating local climate. The analytical framework of “threshold identification–spatio-temporal heterogeneity–causal pathway analysis” proposed in this study elucidated the complex driving mechanisms of ESV evolution, providing valuable guidance for ecological restoration evaluation and differentiated environmental governance. Full article

Traditional villages in ecologically fragile and multi-ethnic frontier regions are increasingly threatened by rapid urbanization and socio-economic transformation. Northwestern Yunnan, located in the longitudinal valleys of the Hengduan Mountains, represents a key cultural landscape of plateau agropastoral civilization and ethnic interaction, yet its spatial organization and clustering mechanisms remain insufficiently understood. This study develops a four-dimensional analytical framework integrating four dimensions—spatial morphology (village distribution patterns and density), geomorphological conditions (elevation, slope, and terrain features), cultural attributes (ethnic composition and historical-cultural corridors), and architectural typologies (dominant residential structure types) to examine 246 officially recognized traditional villages. Using GIS-based spatial statistics, kernel density estimation (KDE), spatial autocorrelation, and a hierarchical overlay model, the study identifies the spatial structure (distribution patterns and density gradients), environmental adaptability (relationships with elevation, slope, and hydrological conditions), and multidimensional clustering characteristics (integrated clustering intensity across four analytical dimensions) of settlements. The results reveal a highly uneven and a statistically significant clustered spatial pattern ($R$ = 0.606, Moran’s $I$ = 0.251, p < 0.05) characterized by a “two corridors–six clusters–multiple nodes” structure. Settlement distribution demonstrates strong coupling with mid-elevation plateau basins, river valley systems, and trade-cultural corridors shaped by the Ancient Tea Horse Road. Multidimensional integration further classifies villages into three typologies—comprehensive, specialized, and general clusters—reflecting different levels of coordination among spatial, environmental, cultural, and architectural dimensions. These findings reveal the spatial regularities and multidimensional clustering characteristics of officially recognized traditional villages in Northwestern Yunnan, and suggest that environmental setting, historical corridors, and cultural-architectural features jointly shape the current recognized heritage landscape. The proposed framework provides a context-sensitive basis for differentiated heritage conservation and rural management in mountainous multi-ethnic regions. Full article

Large-scale hydropower development provides substantial socio-economic and energy benefits but simultaneously introduces complex ecological and environmental challenges that require comprehensive scientific assessment. This study systematically evaluates the effects of the leading reservoir (Longpan hydropower station, referring to the uppermost and principal flow-regulating dam in the cascade) in the middle reaches of the Jinsha River’s operation on the water environment of the mainstream Yangtze River, China, with the aim of clarifying its water quality responses and supporting evidence-based basin management. Based on an analysis of the current water quality conditions of the Yangtze River and a comparative review of the operational experience of the Three Gorges Reservoir, this research explores the mechanisms through which large reservoirs alter hydrological and ecological processes. These mechanisms include reduced flow velocity, prolonged water residence time, weakened pollutant dispersion, and increased risk of algal blooms in tributaries. To quantitatively assess these impacts, an improved river dilution–mixing model was developed and applied to simulate the water quality response during the dry season (February–April) under different discharge scenarios. Key downstream monitoring sections were examined. The modeling results indicate that the operation of the Leading reservoir can moderately reduce dry-season concentrations of key pollutants (e.g., total phosphorus, permanganate index) at downstream sections by approximately 2–5% on average, with spatially heterogeneous effects. Although the overall improvement magnitude remains limited, the combined effects of sediment deposition and in situ degradation may yield more pronounced real-world benefits. The findings underscore the importance of optimizing the regulatory function of the Longpan Reservoir through coordinated operation within the cascade reservoir system. It is recommended to integrate water resource allocation, water quality management, and aquatic ecosystem protection, alongside enhanced pollution control and ecological restoration in key zones. The methodology and findings provide a referenced framework for assessing the water-environmental implications of large-scale reservoir regulation in other major river systems. Full article

Tire and road wear particles (TRWPs) are formed at the frictional interface of the tire and road surface and consist of polymer-containing tread with pavement mineral and binder encrustations. Their detection in various environmental compartments globally sparks increasing societal and regulatory interest. Solid quantitative information as a basis for managing and mitigating TRWPs in the environment is lacking however. This paper presents and demonstrates a model approach that produces catchment-scale terrestrial and aquatic TRWP mass balances anywhere in the world. A spatially and temporally explicit modelling method was used that builds on publicly available global datasets and process-based open-source modelling frameworks to describe hydrological processes, TRWP releases, fate and transport under a wide range of climatic conditions. High-resolution (<1 km) models were implemented and evaluated by demonstrating consistency with available field data for three watersheds on different continents. The approach provides comprehensive mass balances to underpin management of TRWPs that account for socio-economic, climate, geography and stormwater management gradients. Case study results revealed strong climate-induced differences: the fraction of vehicle-generated TRWPs exported to the estuarine environment varied between 2% (Seine watershed, France) to 18% (Yodo River watershed, Japan), corresponding to an increase in the fraction released to freshwater ecosystems from 20% to 36%, respectively. The modelling framework provides a consistent comparison between watersheds across the world. Limitations of the approach are its lack of local details and the uncertainties stemming from the still-developing scientific knowledge base. Full article

Sustainable soil–water management under climate and socio-economic pressures requires predictive capability that is both mechanistic and continuously corrected by observations. Data assimilation (DA) provides the formal machinery to merge models with heterogeneous measurements—from satellite evapotranspiration and soil moisture to cosmic-ray neutron sensing, proximal geophysics, lysimeters, and groundwater hydrographs—while propagating uncertainty. This review (based on 90 references) synthesizes frontiers in DA and modeling for soil–water systems across scales, emphasizing (i) multi-source observation operators and scaling; (ii) coupled crop–vadose–groundwater modeling frameworks and their structural hypotheses; (iii) modern DA methods (ensemble, variational, particle-based, and hybrid physics–ML) for joint estimation of states, parameters, and biases; and (iv) emerging digital twins that enable predict-then-verify management loops for irrigation, recharge enhancement, and drought risk reduction. We highlight how tracer-aided and isotope-informed components can improve evapotranspiration partitioning and recharge threshold detection, and how agent-based or socio-hydrological coupling can represent human decision feedback. Finally, we outline research gaps in uncertainty quantification, benchmarking, reproducibility, and governance needed to operationalize trustworthy soil–water digital twins for resilient food and water systems. Full article

This research addresses the challenge of assessing ecosystem services, ecosystem condition, and agricultural externalities in a Latin American socio-ecological context, where primary production is both a major economic activity and a pressure on ecosystems. In Uruguay, the intensification of agriculture and livestock farming has raised concerns about nutrient-related externalities affecting water and soil quality. Although the System of Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA)—Ecosystem Accounting framework is used for better ecosystem management, it does not explicitly represent externalities. Using the Santa Lucía sub-basin in Uruguay (supplying water to 60% of the population) as a case study, this research combines the Soil and Water Assessment (SWAT) Tool with ecosystem accounting principles to assess ecosystem services, ecosystem condition, and externalities. Model outputs are used to compile partial ecosystem accounts in physical terms, integrating spatially explicit indicators. Results show that nutrient losses to surface waters, interpreted as agricultural externalities, are predominantly driven by diffuse sources associated with croplands and dairy systems and shaped by hydrological connectivity. Despite data and model-related uncertainties, the approach supports hotspot identification and the spatial targeting of interventions and provides the basis for future monetary assessment, illustrating how hydrological modeling can complement ecosystem accounting in data-scarce contexts. Full article

Flood events driven by climate variability and change pose significant risks for socio-economic activities in the Awash Basin, necessitating advanced forecasting tools. This study benchmarks five deep learning (DL) architectures, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), and a Hybrid CNN–LSTM, for daily discharge forecasting for the Hombole catchment in the Upper Awash Basin (UAB) using 40 years of hydrometeorological observations (1981–2020). Rainfall, lagged discharge, and seasonal indicators were used as predictors. Model performance was evaluated against two baseline approaches, a conceptual HBV rainfall–runoff model as well as a climatology, using standard and hydrological metrics. Of the two baselines (climatology and HBV), the climatology showed limited skill with large bias and negative NSE, whereas the HBV model achieved moderate skill (NSE = 0.64 and KGE = 0.82). In contrast, all DL models substantially improved predictive performance, achieving test NSE values above 0.83 and low overall bias. Among them, the Hybrid CNN–LSTM provided the most balanced performance, combining local temporal feature extraction with long-term memory and yielding stable efficiency (NSE ≈ 0.84, KGE ≈ 0.90, and PBIAS ≈ −2%) across flow regimes. The LSTM and GRU models performed comparably, offering strong temporal learning and robust daily predictions, while BiLSTM improved flood timing through bidirectional sequence modeling. The CNN captured short-term variability effectively but showed weaker representation of extreme peaks. Analysis of peak-flow metrics revealed systematic underestimation of extreme discharge magnitudes across all models. However, a post-processing flow-regime classification based on discharge quantiles demonstrated high extreme-event detection skill, with deep learning models exceeding 89% accuracy in identifying extreme-flow occurrences on the test set. These findings indicate that, while magnitude errors remain for rare floods, DL models reliably discriminate flood regimes relevant for early warning. Overall, the results show that deep learning models provide clear improvements over climatology and conceptual baselines for daily streamflow forecasting in the UAB, while highlighting remaining challenges in peak-flow magnitude prediction. The study indicates promising results for the integration of deep learning methods into flood early-warning workflows; however, these results could be further improved by adopting a probabilistic forecasting framework that accounts for model uncertainty. Full article

This study develops an integrated methodological framework coupling CMIP6 climate projections with a socio-economic-hydrological System Dynamics (SD) model to evaluate adaptation strategies for agricultural resilience. Applied to the Qazvin Plain aquifer in Iran, the model demonstrates high fidelity in capturing hydrological–human interactions, evidenced by a 97% correlation between simulated and observed groundwater levels. The system was developed using long-term meteorological drivers (1993–2024) and calibrated against observed socio-hydrological data for the period 2006–2024 and projected to 2062 under multiple CMIP6 scenarios, identifying SSP245 and SSP126 as the most accurate predictors for regional precipitation and temperature, respectively. Modeling outcomes indicate that aridity will intensify across all scenarios; specifically, under current water-use patterns, groundwater storage is projected to decline by 24.5%, 25.4%, and 27.6% by 2041 under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, respectively. However, the simulation reveals that integrating demand-side management with crop pattern optimization can stabilize the aquifer and boost agricultural value added by 7.4%. The findings further highlight that a 48% reduction in current groundwater withdrawals is essential to reach a sustainable threshold of 781 million m³. These quantitative insights suggest that while climatic pressures are increasing, human-driven management remains the decisive factor, provided that economic tools and smart monitoring are prioritized for long-term sustainability. Full article

Globally, grasslands, savannas, and wetlands are degrading rapidly and increasingly being replaced by woody vegetation. Woody Plant Encroachment (WPE) disrupts natural landscapes and has significant consequences for biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and key ecosystem services. This review synthesizes findings from 159 peer-reviewed studies identified through a PRISMA-guided systematic literature review to evaluate the drivers of WPE, its ecological impacts, and the remote sensing (RS) approaches used to monitor it. The drivers of WPE are multifaceted, involving interactions among climate variability, topographic and edaphic conditions, hydrological change, land use transitions, and altered fire and grazing regimes, while its impacts are similarly diverse, influencing land cover structure, water and nutrient cycles, carbon and nitrogen dynamics, and broader implications for ecosystem resilience. Over the past two decades, RS has become central to WPE monitoring, with studies employing classification techniques, spectral mixture analysis, object-based image analysis, change detection, thresholding, landscape pattern and fragmentation metrics, and increasingly, machine learning and deep learning methods. Looking forward, emerging advances such as multi-sensor fusion (optical– synthetic aperture radar (SAR), Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)–hyperspectral), cloud-based platforms including Google Earth Engine, Microsoft Planetary Computer, and Digital Earth, and geospatial foundation models offer new opportunities for scalable, automated, and long-term monitoring. Despite these innovations, challenges remain in detecting early-stage encroachment, subcanopy woody growth, and species-specific patterns across heterogeneous landscapes. Key knowledge gaps highlighted in this review include the need for long-term monitoring frameworks, improved socio-ecological integration, species- and ecosystem-specific RS approaches, better utilization of SAR, and broader adoption of analysis-ready data and open-source platforms. Addressing these gaps will enable more effective, context-specific strategies to monitor, manage, and mitigate WPE in rapidly changing environments. Full article

Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDSs) are essential for stormwater management in urban areas, with varying hydrological, social, ecological, and economic benefits. Nevertheless, choosing the SUDS most appropriate for public spaces poses a challenge when balancing details/specifications against community decisions, primarily social implications and perceptions. Building on the SUDS design pillar of the amenity, this study outlines a three-phase methodological framework for selecting SUDS based on social facilitation. The first phase introduces the application of the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) and Classificatory Expectation–Maximization (CEM) techniques by modeling complex social interdependencies to find critical components related to urban planning. A Likert scale survey was also conducted with 440 urban dwellers in Tunja (Colombia), which identified three dimensions: Residential Satisfaction (RS), Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change (RACC), and Community Participation (CP). In the second phase, the factors identified above were transformed into eight operational criteria, which were weighted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the collaboration of 35 international experts in SUDS planning and implementation. In the third phase, these weighted criteria were used to evaluate and classify 13 types of SUDSs based on the experts’ assessments of their sub-criteria. The results deliver a clear message: cities must concentrate on solutions that will guarantee that water is managed to the best of their ability, not just safely, and that also enhance climate resilience, energy efficiency, and the ways in which public space is used. Among those options considered, infiltration ponds, green roofs, rain gardens, wetlands, and the like were the best-performing options, providing real and concrete uses in promoting a more resilient and sustainable urban water system. The methodology was also used in a real case in Tunja, Colombia. In its results, this approach proved not only pragmatic but also useful for all concerned, showing that the socio-cultural dimensions can be truly integrated into planning SUDSs and ensuring success. Full article

Urban expansion and its driving factors are frequently analyzed within administrative regions to inform regional urban planning, yet such analyses often fall short at the natural basin scale (referring to the spatial extent defined by hydrological drainage boundaries) due to the scarcity of statistical data. Geographic and socio-economic spatial data can offer more detailed information across various research scales compared to traditional data (such as administrative statistical data, survey-based data, etc.), providing a potential solution to this limitation. Thus, this study took the Indus Basin as an example to reveal its urban expansion patterns and driving mechanism based on natural–economic–social time-series (2000–2020) spatial data, landscape expansion index, and geographical detector model (GDM). Future urban expansion distribution under different scenarios was also projected using Cellular Automata and Markov model (CA-Markov). The results indicated the following: (1) The Indus River Basin experienced rapid urban expansion during 2000–2020 dominated by edge-expansion, with urban expansion intensity showing a continuous increase. (2) Between 2000 and 2010 as well as 2010 and 2020, the dominant factor influencing urban expansion shifted from altitude to population (Pop), while the strongest interacting factors shifted from fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and altitude to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Pop. (3) Future urban expansion probably occupies substantial mountainous area under the normal scenario, while the expansion region shifts towards the central plains to protect more ecological zones under a sustainable development scenario. Findings in this study would deepen the understanding of urban expansion characteristics of the Indus Basin and benefit its future urban planning. Full article

The combined effects of climate change and socio-economic development have intensified the risk of water supply–demand imbalance in China. To project future trends, this study develops a multi-scenario coupled prediction framework integrating climate, socio-economic, and human activity drivers, combining data-driven and physically based modeling approaches to assess terrestrial water storage imbalance in nine major river basins under six representative SSP–RCP scenarios through the end of the 21st century. Using ISIMIP multi-model runoff outputs along with GDP and population projections, agricultural, industrial, and domestic water demands were estimated. A Water Conflict Index was proposed by integrating the Water Supply–Demand Stress Index and the Standardized Hydrological Runoff Index to identify high-risk basins. Results show that under high-emission scenarios, the WCI in the Yellow River, Hai River, and Northwest Rivers remains high, peaking during 2040–2069, while low-emission scenarios significantly alleviate stress in most basins. Water allocation inequity is mainly driven by insufficient supply in arid northern regions and limited redistribution capacity in resource-rich southern basins. Targeted strategies are recommended for different risk types, including inter-basin water transfer, optimization of water use structure and pricing policies, and the development of resilient management systems, providing scenario-based quantitative support for future water security and policy-making in China. Full article

Rapid urbanization in developing megacities has exacerbated hydrological imbalances, positioning urban flooding as a major environmental and socio-economic challenge of the twenty-first century. This study investigates the spatial relationship between building density, topography, and flood susceptibility in Jakarta, Indonesia—one of the most flood-prone urban regions globally. Employing geospatial analysis and spatial autocorrelation techniques, the research assesses how variations in land-use concentration and elevation influence the spatial clustering of flood vulnerability. The analytical framework integrates multiple spatial datasets, including Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), building footprint densities, and flood hazard maps, within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. Spatial statistical measures, specifically Moran’s I and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), are utilized to quantify and visualize patterns of flood susceptibility. The findings reveal that zones characterized by high building density and low elevation form statistically significant clusters of heightened flood risk, particularly within the southern and eastern subdistricts of Jakarta. The study concludes that incorporating spatially explicit and statistically rigorous methodologies enhances the accuracy of flood-risk assessments and supports evidence-based strategies for sustainable urban development and resilience planning. Full article

This study investigates temporal and spatial variation in torrential flood hazards and sediment dynamics in two ungauged watersheds in southeastern Serbia from 1991 to 2023. By integrating classical hydrological models with modern geospatial and photogrammetric techniques, watershed responses to environmental and anthropogenic changes are quantified. Torrential flood potential was estimated and peak discharges were calculated using both the rational and SCS-Unit hydrograph methods, while sediment transport was assessed through Gavrilović’s erosion potential model and a modified Poljakov model. A key innovation is the use of UAV-based and close-range photogrammetry for 3D grain-size analysis, marking the first such application in Serbia. The mean torrential flood potential decreased by 4.4% in the Petrova Watershed and 4.2% in the Rasnička Watershed. Specific peak discharges for a 100-year return period declined from 1.62 to 1.07 m³·s⁻¹·km⁻² in Petrova and from 1.60 to 1.34 m³·s⁻¹·km⁻² in Rasnička. Sediment transport during a 1% probability flood was reduced from 4.97 to 2.53 m³·s⁻¹ in Petrova and from 13.87 to 9.48 m³·s⁻¹ in Rasnička. Grain-size analyses revealed immobile coarse bedload in the Petrova and active sediment transport in the Rasnička River, where D50 and D90 decreased between 2023 and 2024. The findings highlight the effectiveness of a synergistic methodological approach for analyzing complex watershed processes in data-scarce regions. The study provides a replicable model for flood hazard assessment and erosion control planning in similar mountainous environments undergoing socio-environmental transitions. Full article