Search Results (954)

Empirical research on the impact of the digital economy on sustainable development is hampered by severe methodological challenges. Discrepancies in the theoretical foundations and construction logic of measurement frameworks have led to diverse and often conflicting conclusions, hindering the systematic accumulation of knowledge. This study aims to address this critical gap by proposing a new, logically consistent measurement framework. To overcome the existing limitations, we construct a functional deconstruction framework grounded in General-Purpose Technology (GPT) theory and a “stock–flow” perspective. This framework deconstructs the digital economy into a neutral “digital infrastructure” (stock platform) and two forces reflecting its inherent duality: a “consumption force” (digital industrialization) and an “empowerment force” (industrial digitalization). Based on this, we develop a measurement system adhering to the principle of “logical purity” and apply a “two-step entropy weighting method with annual standardization” to assess 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2023. Our analysis reveals a multi-scalar evolution. At the micro level, we identified four distinct provincial development models and three evolutionary paths. At the macro level, we found that the overall inter-provincial disparity followed an inverted U-shaped trajectory, with the core contradiction shifting from an “access gap” to a more profound “application gap.” Furthermore, the primary driver of this disparity has transitioned from being “empowerment-led” to a new phase of a “dual-force rebalancing.” The main contribution of this study is the provision of a new analytical tool that enables a paradigm shift from “aggregate assessment” to “structural diagnosis.” By deconstructing the digital economy, our framework allows for the identification of internal structural imbalances and provides a more robust and nuanced foundation for future causal inference studies and evidence-based policymaking in the field of digital sustainability Full article

Knowledge tracing, the computational modeling of student learning progression through sequential educational interactions, represents a critical component for adaptive learning systems and personalized education platforms. However, existing approaches face a fundamental trade-off between predictive accuracy and interpretability: deep sequence models excel at capturing complex temporal dependencies in student interaction data but lack transparency in their decision-making processes, while probabilistic graphical models provide interpretable causal relationships but struggle with the complexity of real-world educational sequences. We propose a hybrid architecture that integrates transformer-based sequence modeling with structured Bayesian causal networks to overcome this limitation. Our dual-pathway design employs a transformer encoder to capture complex temporal patterns in student interaction sequences, while a differentiable Bayesian network explicitly models prerequisite relationships between knowledge components. These pathways are unified through a cross-attention mechanism that enables bidirectional information flow between temporal representations and causal structures. We introduce a joint training objective that simultaneously optimizes sequence prediction accuracy and causal graph consistency, ensuring learned temporal patterns align with interpretable domain knowledge. The model undergoes pre-training on 3.2 million student–problem interactions from diverse MOOCs to establish foundational representations, followed by domain-specific fine-tuning. Comprehensive experiments across mathematics, computer science, and language learning demonstrate substantial improvements: 8.7% increase in AUC over state-of-the-art knowledge tracing models (0.847 vs. 0.779), 12.3% reduction in RMSE for performance prediction, and 89.2% accuracy in discovering expert-validated prerequisite relationships. The model achieves a 0.763 F1-score for early at-risk student identification, outperforming baselines by 15.4%. This work demonstrates that sophisticated temporal modeling and interpretable causal reasoning can be effectively unified for educational applications. Full article

In order to improve the localization accuracy and model interpretability of single-phase ground fault sections in distribution networks, a knowledge-integrated and data-driven fault localization model is proposed. The model transforms the transient zero-sequence currents into Markov Transition Field (MTF) images based on transfer entropy, and improves the two-channel feature expression with both causal and temporal structures. On this basis, a knowledge guidance mechanism based on a physical mechanism is introduced to focus on the waveform backpropagation characteristics of upstream and downstream nodes of the fault through the feature attention module, and a similarity weighting strategy is constructed by integrating the Hausdorff distance in the all-connectivity layer in order to enhance the model’s capability of discriminating between the key segments. The dataset is constructed in an improved IEEE 14-node simulation system, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by t-SNE feature visualization, comparison experiments with different parameters, misclassification correction analysis, and anti-noise performance evaluation. For misclassified sample datasets, this method achieves an accuracy rate of 99.53%, indicating that it outperforms traditional convolutional neural network models in terms of fault section localization accuracy, generalization capability, and noise robustness. Research shows that the deep integration of knowledge and data can significantly enhance the model’s discriminative ability and engineering practicality, providing new insights for the construction of intelligent power systems with explainability. Full article

Background: Major depression is a significant source of suffering and economic loss. Despite efforts to understand this condition and find better treatments, the burden imposed by this disease continues to rise. Most approved pharmacological treatments for depression focus on controlling the availability of monoamines in synapses. However, accumulating evidence suggests that neuroinflammation, oxidative stress, and reduced hippocampal neurogenesis play key roles as causal factors in the development of major depression symptoms. Therefore, preclinical testing of pharmacological approaches targeting these factors is essential. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are known for their potential as powerful antioxidants and anti-inflammatory agents, exerting neuroprotective actions in the brain. They produce various therapeutic molecules in a paracrine manner, collectively known as secretome. Methods: In this work, we evaluated the antidepressant potential of repeated intranasal administration of MSC-derived secretome in an animal model of major depressive disorder induced by chronic mild unpredictable stress. Results: We observed that intranasal administration of MSC-derived secretome reduced the appearance of some of the behavioral parameters commonly associated with major depression, including anhedonic, apathetic, and anxious behaviors, inducing a strong reduction in the overall depression score compared to vehicle-treated animals. At the structural level, secretome administration prevented increased astrocyte density and the atrophy of astrocyte processes observed in vehicle-treated stressed animals. Additionally, secretome administration induced an increase in myelin levels and oligodendroglia in the cortex. Conclusions: Our data suggests that intranasal administration of MSC-derived secretome may represent a potential therapeutic alternative to current treatments for this devastating pathology. Full article

This study provides the first empirical evidence on the impact of innovation and firm growth on performance across G7 economies, using a unique panel dataset of 252 firms from 2020 to 2024. This study examines two core dimensions of firm performance—labor productivity and asset turnover—and employs multiple innovation proxies, including R&D Intensity, R&D-to-Assets, and R&D Growth Rate. To address potential endogeneity arising from reverse causality and omitted variable bias, the author implements the heteroskedasticity-based instrumental variable estimator, which constructs internal instruments from the model’s error structure. The study’s results reveal a consistent and significant positive causal effect of innovation on labor productivity, confirming its role as a driver of firm-level efficiency. However, innovation exhibits a negative and significant association with asset turnover, highlighting short-term trade-offs in operational efficiency, particularly in firms with aggressive R&D strategies. This study further finds that these effects are moderated by firm profitability and industry conditions, suggesting the importance of strategic and contextual alignment in innovation outcomes. Taken together, the findings offer new insights into the dual nature of innovation, enhancing productivity while imposing transitional efficiency costs and carrying significant implications for corporate innovation strategy and public policy in advanced economies. Full article

This paper proposes Feature fusion and Dilated causal convolution model for Bearing Remaining useful life Prediction (FDBRP), an integrated framework for accurate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction of rolling bearings that combines three key innovations: (1) a data augmentation module employing sliding-window processing and two-dimensional feature concatenation with label normalization to enhance signal representation and improve model generalizability, (2) a feature fusion module incorporating an enhanced graph convolutional network for spatial modeling, an improved multi-scale temporal convolution for dynamic pattern extraction, and an efficient multi-scale attention mechanism to optimize spatiotemporal feature consistency, and (3) an optimized dilated convolution module utilizing interval sampling to expand the receptive field, and combines the residual connection structure to realize the regularization of the neural network and enhance the ability of the model to capture long-range dependencies. Experimental validation showcases the effectiveness of proposed approach, achieving a high average score of 0.756564 and demonstrating a lower average error of 10.903656 in RUL prediction for test bearings compared to state-of-the-art benchmarks. This highlights the superior RUL prediction capability of the proposed methodology. Full article

Background/Objectives: The improvement of sleep quality is unquestionably a critical issue in public health. While numerous factors influence sleep quality, the relative importance of dietary habits remains insufficiently understood. The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of dietary habits by quantitatively comparing the effects of various determinants of sleep quality. Methods: Using sleep diary data from healthy males and females residing in a specific region of Japan, we estimated a dynamic multivariate panel model (DMPM) to obtain posterior predictive distributions on a scale that allows for comparisons across factor categories. Three outcome variables were adopted to measure sleep quality: presence or absence of daytime drowsiness, ease of falling asleep, and ease of waking up. The determinants of sleep quality examined in the analysis were categorized into six groups: stress factors, bedtime conditions, weather conditions, physical characteristics, exercise habits, and dietary habits. Results: The analysis revealed that although there were some seasonal and gender differences, dietary habits showed effect sizes that were no smaller than those of other determinants across all outcome variables. Conclusions: These results suggest that improving dietary habits, along with enhancing exercise habits and bedtime conditions, is a valid and equally important strategy for promoting better sleep. Full article

Understanding how congestion forms and propagates over space and time is essential for improving the operational efficiency of urban traffic systems. Recent developments in causal emergence theory indicate that the causal structures underlying dynamic models are scale-dependent. Most existing studies on traffic congestion evolution focus on a single, fixed scale, which risks overlooking clearer causal patterns at other scales and thus limiting predictive power and practical applicability. To address this, we develop a multiscale congestion evolution modeling framework grounded in causal emergence theory. Within this framework we build dynamical models at multiple spatiotemporal scales using dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) and quantify the causal strength of these models using effective information (EI) and singular value decomposition (SVD)-based diagnostics. Using road networks from three central Kunshan regions, we validate the proposed framework across 24 spatiotemporal scales and five demand scenarios. Across all three regions and the tested scales, we observe evidence of causal emergence in congestion evolution dynamics. When results are pooled across regions and scenarios, models built at the 10 min/150 m scale exhibit stronger and more coherent causal structure than models at other scales. These findings demonstrate that the proposed framework can identify and help build dynamical models of congestion evolution at appropriate spatiotemporal scales, thereby supporting the development of proactive traffic management and effective resilience enhancement strategies for urban transport systems. Full article

In the context of global climate change and growing food security challenges, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the yields of three staple crops (wheat, corn and rice) in the Yellow River Basin of China, employing multiple quantitative analysis methods including the Mann–Kendall trend test, center of gravity transfer model and hotspot analysis. Our research integrates yield data covering these three crops from 72 prefecture-level cities across the Yellow River Basin, during 2000 to 2023, to systematically examine the temporal variation, spatial variation and spatial agglomeration characteristics of the yields. The study uses GeoDetector to explore the impacts of natural and socioeconomic factors on changes in crop yields from both single-factor and interactive-factor perspectives. While traditional statistical methods often struggle to simultaneously handle complex causal relationships among multiple factors, particularly in effectively distinguishing between direct and indirect influence paths or accounting for the transmission effects of factors through mediating variables, this study adopts Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to identify which factors directly affect crop yields and which exert indirect effects through other factors. This approach enables us to elucidate the path relationships and underlying mechanisms governing crop yields, thereby revealing the direct and indirect influences among multiple factors. This study conducted an analysis using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), classifying the intensity of influence based on the absolute value of the impact factor (with >0.3 defined as “strong”, 0.1–0.3 as “moderate” and <0.1 as “weak”), and distinguishing the nature of influence by the positive or negative value (positive values indicate promotion, negative values indicate inhibition). The results show that among natural factors, temperature has a moderate promoting effect on wheat (0.21) and a moderate inhibiting effect on corn (−0.25); precipitation has a moderate inhibiting effect on wheat (−0.28) and a moderate promoting effect on rice (0.17); DEM has a strong inhibiting effect on wheat (−0.33) and corn (−0.58), and a strong promoting effect on rice (0.38); slope has a moderate inhibiting effect on wheat (−0.15) and a moderate promoting effect on corn (0.15). Among socioeconomic factors, GDP has a weak promoting effect on wheat (0.01) and a moderate inhibiting effect on rice (−0.20), while the impact of population is relatively small. In terms of indirect effects, slope indirectly inhibits wheat (−0.051, weak) and promotes corn (0.149, moderate) through its influence on temperature; DEM indirectly promotes rice (0.236, moderate) through its influence on GDP and precipitation. In terms of interaction effects, the synergy between precipitation and temperature has the highest explanatory power for wheat and rice, while the synergy between DEM and precipitation has the strongest explanatory power for corn. The study further analyzes the mechanisms of direct and indirect interactions among various factors and finds that there are significant temporal and spatial differences in crop yields in the Yellow River Basin, with natural factors playing a leading role and socioeconomic factors showing dynamic regulatory effects. These findings provide valuable insights for sustainable agricultural development and food security policy-making in the region. Full article

Temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) are crucial for modeling evolving real-world facts and are widely applied in event forecasting and risk analysis. However, current TKG reasoning models struggle to separate causal signals from noisy observations, align temporal dynamics with semantic structures, and integrate long-term and short-term knowledge effectively. To address these challenges, we propose the Temporal Causal Contrast Graph Network (TCCGN), a unified framework that disentangles causal features from noise via orthogonal decomposition and adversarial learning; applies dual-domain contrastive learning to enhance both temporal and semantic consistency; and introduces a gated fusion module for adaptive integration of static and dynamic features across time scales. Extensive experiments on five benchmarks (ICEWS14/05-15/18, YAGO, GDELT) show that TCCGN consistently outperforms prior models. On ICEWS14, it achieves 42.46% MRR and 31.63% Hits@1, surpassing RE-GCN by 1.21 points. On the high-noise GDELT dataset, it improves MRR by 1.0%. These results highlight TCCGN’s robustness and its promise for real-world temporal reasoning tasks involving fine-grained causal inference under noisy conditions. Full article

This study utilized the North American PhenoCam network to evaluate phenological characteristics and their relationships with geographic and climatic factors across deciduous broadleaf (n = 39) and evergreen needleleaf (n = 13) forests over the past decade. Using high temporal resolution near-surface imagery, key phenological indicators including the start, end, and length of growing season were derived and analyzed using linear regression and structural equation modeling. The results revealed substantial spatial variation; the evergreen needleleaf sites exhibited earlier starts to the growing season (112 vs. 130 Julian date), later ends to the growing season (286 vs. 264 Julian date), and longer lengths for the growing season (172 vs. 131 days) compared with the deciduous broadleaf sites. Latitude was significantly related to the start of the growing season and the length of the growing season at the deciduous broadleaf sites (R² = 0.28–0.41, p < 0.01), while these relationships were weaker at the evergreen needleleaf sites, and elevation had mixed effects. The mean annual temperature strongly influenced the phenology for both forest types (R² = 0.18–0.76, p < 0.01), whereas longitude, distance to the coast, and precipitation had negligible effects. Temporal trends in the phenological indicators were sporadic across both the deciduous broadleaf and evergreen needleleaf sites. Structural equation modeling revealed distinct causal pathways for each forest type, highlighting complex interactions among the geographical and climatic variables. At the deciduous broadleaf sites, geographical factors (latitude, elevation, and distance to the nearest coast) predominated the mean annual temperature, which in turn significantly affected phenological development (χ² = 2.171, p = 0.975). At the evergreen needleleaf sites, geographical variables had more complex effects on the climatic factors, start of the growing season, and end of the growing season, with the end of the growing season emerging as the primary determinant of growing season length (χ² = 0.486, p = 0.784). The PhenoCam network provides valuable fine-scale phenological dynamics, offering great insights for forest management, biodiversity conservation, and understanding carbon cycling under climate change. Full article

Background/Objectives: Evidence suggests a J-shaped association between alcohol consumption and depression, but it remains unclear whether this reflects a true causal effect, reverse causation, or methodological bias. This uncertainty is particularly relevant in older adults, who are at increased risk for both depression and alcohol-related harms. This study aimed to examine the association between varying levels of alcohol consumption and depression risk in community-dwelling older adults. Methods: We analyzed 16,563 community-dwelling older adults (mean age 75.1 ± 4.6 years) from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial. Alcohol intake, reported at baseline and follow-up, was categorized as abstinent, occasional, moderate, or above-guideline. Both intention-to-treat (classified by baseline alcohol consumption, regardless of later changes) and per-protocol (using annual time-updated alcohol consumption ) analyses were performed. To address confounding, informative censoring, and selection bias, we applied marginal structural models with inverse probability weighting. Results: In per-protocol analyses, abstainers (OR 1.17), occasional drinkers (OR 1.11), and above-guideline drinkers (OR 1.15) were significantly associated with a higher risk of depression compared with moderate drinkers, consistent with a J-shaped association. Sensitivity analyses excluding former drinkers and those with baseline depressive symptoms showed similar results. The association remained robust after adjusting for social isolation, social support, social interactions, physical activity, pain, sleep duration, sleep difficulties, and sleep medication use (n = 14,892; Australian sub-sample), and did not differ by sex. Conclusions: Moderate alcohol consumption was associated with the lowest depression risk, confirming a J-shaped relationship after comprehensive confounder adjustment. Full article

To enhance the understanding and management of fire risks in subway stations, this study aims to identify critical fire risk transmission paths using an integrated PSR–DEMATEL–ISM approach. A comprehensive evaluation framework is first constructed based on the Pressure–State–Response (PSR) model, systematically categorizing 22 influencing factors into three dimensions: pressure, state, and response. The Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method is then employed to analyze the causal relationships and centrality among these factors, distinguishing between cause and effect groups. Subsequently, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) is applied to organize the factors into a multi-level hierarchical structure, enabling the identification of risk propagation pathways. The analysis reveals five high-centrality and high-causality factors: fire safety education and training, completeness of fire management rules and regulations, fire smoke detection and firefighting capability, operational status of monitoring equipment, and effectiveness of emergency response plans. Based on these key drivers, six major transmission paths are derived, reflecting the internal logic of fire risk evolution in subway environments. Among them, chains originating from Fire Safety Education and Training (S6), Architectural Fire Protection Design (S7), and Completeness of Fire Management Rules and Regulations (S16) exhibit the most significant influence on system-wide safety performance. This study provides theoretical support and practical guidance for proactive fire prevention and emergency planning in urban rail transit systems, offering a structured and data-driven approach to identifying vulnerabilities and improving system resilience. Full article

Given the increasing prominence of sustainable tourism in light of climate change, this study investigates the sustainable tourist behavior of winter tourists through psychological and demographic factors in relation to climate change. Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior and a cognitive–affective combination of variables, we outline a structural equation model to investigate the direct and indirect effect of climate change awareness (CCA), environmental attitude (ATT), and perceived responsibility (PR) towards sustainable behavior (SB). Environmental concern (EC) and perceived behavioral control (PBC) are employed as mediators in a test. A total of 518 Greek winter tourists’ data were examined using SEM and multi-group analysis (MGA). It is indicated that CCA and PR directly predict SB with significant effects, and ATT’s influence is fully mediated. EC and PBC are used as significant psychological mediators, and PBC is indicated to possess a strong effect. MGA discloses significant gender, age, education, climate salience, and frequency of tourism behavior differences, provoking contextual differences that inform sustainability response. There is a theoretical contribution in the form of specification of dual roles played by cognitive control and emotional concern in determining sustainable tourism behavior. Practical implications inform the planning of interventions, particularly for policymakers, educators, and tourist managers. Future studies need to incorporate behavior information, examine causality, and carry out analysis to cultural and season levels. Full article

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in diverse text generation tasks but still face limited controllability, opaque decision processes, and frequent hallucinations. This paper presents a structural causal intervention framework that models input–hidden–output dependencies through a structural causal model and performs targeted interventions on hidden representations. By combining counterfactual sample construction with contrastive training, our method enables precise control of style, sentiment, and factual consistency while providing explicit causal explanations for output changes. Experiments on three representative tasks demonstrate consistent and substantial improvements: style transfer accuracy reaches 92.3% (+7–14 percentage points over strong baselines), sentiment-controlled generation achieves 90.1% accuracy (+1.3–10.9 points), and multi-attribute conflict rates drop to 3.7% (a 40–60% relative reduction). Our method also improves causal attribution scores to 0.83–0.85 and human agreement rates to 87–88%, while reducing training and inference latency by 25–30% through sparse masking that modifies ≤10% of hidden units per attribute. These results confirm that integrating structural causal intervention with counterfactual training advances controllability, interpretability, and efficiency in LLM-based generation, offering a robust foundation for deployment in reliability-critical and resource-constrained applications. Full article