Search Results (127)

This study evaluates the demand dynamics of the 20 leading strategic destinations in the global tourism market by modeling the interactions between traditional macroeconomic determinants and climate-linked environmental sustainability indicators. The primary objective is to assess the predictive capacity of physical and structural environmental factors—including water stress, air pollution, renewable energy adoption, and sanitation infrastructure—relative to established economic metrics like GDP per capita. Employing non-parametric predictive frameworks on a panel dataset of 400 observations (2000–2019), the empirical analysis suggests that tree-based ensemble models, notably Extra Trees (90.54%) and CatBoost (84.75%), yield higher predictive accuracy than conventional multiple linear regression (73.97%). Interpretations derived from cooperative game theory via SHAP analysis suggest that environmental determinants may serve as important predictive drivers of tourism demand. Specifically, variables such as water stress (28.20%), renewable energy share (27.12%), and sanitation infrastructure carry substantial predictive weight, whereas the benchmark macroeconomic indicator (2.30%) exerts a relatively marginal influence within the model architecture. These findings imply that environmental sustainability metrics may capture international tourism demand variations more effectively than traditional economic variables. The results suggest that acute environmental vulnerabilities may be associated with reduced tourism inflows, potentially reflecting limitations in destination sustainability thresholds. Broadly, the evidence is consistent with the notion that contemporary global tourism demand may be increasingly interdependent with ecological resilience and low-carbon transition policies. It is important to note that the findings reported here reflect predictive associations derived from machine learning models and should not be interpreted as evidence of causal relationships. Full article

The rapid tourism development in the Municipality of Athens significantly impacts both the local economy and the daily lives of its residents. This study investigates the Social Carrying Capacity (SCC) of Athens by exploring the perceptions, experiences, and attitudes of local citizens and professionals towards the tourism phenomenon. A primary quantitative study was conducted between July and October 2024, utilising a structured online questionnaire based on a stratified random sampling method across the Municipal Communities of Athens, yielding 787 valid responses. The findings reveal a dichotomy in public perception: while the majority recognises the positive economic contributions of tourism—particularly in the catering and hospitality sectors—significant concerns are raised regarding negative socio-environmental impacts. The most severe consequence identified is the surge in housing costs and rent prices, predominantly driven by short-term rentals, followed by increased pressure on public infrastructure, cleanliness, and traffic congestion. Despite these challenges, a considerable portion of the respondents maintains a generally tolerant attitude towards visitors and believes there is still a margin for further tourism growth. The study concludes that to ensure sustainable urban tourism, policymakers must implement targeted strategies, including the regulation of short-term rentals and substantial investments in public infrastructure, thereby balancing economic benefits with residents’ quality of life. Full article

To address the challenges of over-reliance on single-source data, strong spatial heterogeneity in scenic areas, and difficulty in dynamically capturing spatial topology and heterogeneous node relationships in forestry tourism resource carrying capacity prediction, this paper constructs a carrying capacity prediction framework that integrates a multi-source data fusion algorithm with an attention mechanism and a GAT-Transformer model. This framework employs a modal-level multi-head cross-attention mechanism to conditionally weight and fuse multi-source heterogeneous data in the node and time dimensions. It adaptively allocates the contribution of each information source based on the spatiotemporal context, suppressing noise and redundant interference. A weighted spatial graph is constructed based on fusion distance, trail connectivity, and traffic similarity. Neighborhood information is aggregated through a graph attention network to characterize spatial heterogeneity. The spatially enhanced node sequence is then input into a multi-layer Transformer encoder to capture the long-term temporal dependence and periodic patterns of carrying capacity. Finally, the prediction results are output through a regression layer. Systematic experiments were conducted using two years of multi-source observation data from Wulingyuan National Forest Park. The results show that the proposed method has low prediction error and good stability, exhibiting excellent performance in temporal scale adaptation, spatial generalization, and resistance to missing data and noise. Simultaneously, the model structure is lightweight, with low inference latency, achieving a good balance between prediction accuracy, interpretability, and engineering deployment. Full article

The Spur-thighed tortoise (Testudo graeca) is a long-lived terrestrial reptile listed as ‘Vulnerable’ on the IUCN Red List and protected under CITES Appendix II. As an ecosystem engineer, it plays a vital role in Mediterranean landscapes, yet it frequently faces anthropogenic pressures in urban environments. This study provides an ecological and ethological assessment of a captive T. graeca population (n = 42) in the historical Münire Madrasa Handicrafts Bazaar in Kastamonu, Türkiye. The methodology integrated spatial carrying capacity modeling (Boullon model), systematic ethogram-based observations (120 h), and ethnozoological surveys (n = 200). Spatial analysis revealed that the population exceeds the corrected Real Carrying Capacity (RCC ≈ 10) by four times (Overcapacity Index: 4.2) within the 70 m² area. Ethological findings documented chronic stress, with stereotypic pacing (H1) occupying 32% of the time budget, alongside a significant loss of anti-predator mechanisms due to anthropogenic habituation (İ1). While stakeholders (100%, 95% CI: 98.1–100%) perceive the tortoises as cultural symbols of abundance, the biological reality indicates severe welfare risks, including potential metabolic bone disease from a monotonous anthropogenic diet and a disrupted Ca:P ratio. The site is categorized as a ‘High-Constraint Interaction Zone’. We propose a management transition toward a monitored ‘Urban Wildlife Education Station’ to align local cultural values with international animal welfare and conservation standards. Full article

Cultural heritage, with its humanistic values, is seen as a tool for preserving historical memory and reinforcing cultural identity, while its socio-economic values have a significant impact on the tourism industry. However, the contemporary global context, characterized by rapid and often unsustainable development, has intensified challenges such as tourism massification, urbanization, and climate change. To address these challenges, the authors assume that contemporary society should find a balanced development model in which heritage management becomes an integrated part of sustainable tourism practices. Although the relationship between heritage, tourism, and sustainability has been extensively explored for more than four decades, existing research remains fragmented and lacks an integrated conceptual framework that systematically explains the interconnections between sustainable tourism and heritage management. Therefore, the main goal of this paper is to develop a conceptual framework and conduct a comprehensive literature review that synthesizes these processes, contributing to the existing body of knowledge and addressing identified research gaps. The conducted research indicates that contemporary approaches should enhance integrated heritage management plans, effective visitor management strategies, carrying capacity assessments, and continuous monitoring of tourism impacts. In this context, sustainable tourism and heritage management represent a coordinated process of planning and governance aimed at ensuring the long-term conservation of cultural and natural heritage resources while enabling responsible tourism development. By reviewing and synthesizing existing literature, this paper contributes to the theoretical advancement of sustainable tourism and heritage management studies through the development of an integrated conceptual framework that addresses existing research gaps and incorporates contemporary academic insights. Full article

The Sichuan–Xizang Railway corridor is not only a strategic transport passage but also a distinctive and widely visited tourism route. However, empirical evidence on the interactive relationships among transport, tourism, and economy (TTE) in this corridor remains scarce, even though coordinated development of these three systems is essential for achieving high-quality growth. This study develops a ternary coupling evaluation framework and applies the Entropy Weight Method, the Coupling Coordination Degree Model, and the Relative Development Degree Model to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of six node cities (Chengdu, Ya’an, Garze, Qamdo, Nyingchi, and Lhasa) from 2012 to 2022. The results indicate differences in temporal dynamics across subsystems. The economy grows steadily, tourism rises with pronounced fluctuations, and transport shows the strongest vulnerability to the COVID-19 shock. Spatially, CCD exhibits a persistent “dumbbell-shaped” pattern, with higher coordination at the two ends (Chengdu and Lhasa) and weaker coordination in the central section. Structurally, RDD and heatmap results indicate convergence toward a transport-lagging structure (i.e., a relative lag in carrying capacity), and ternary trajectories drift away from the transport vertex, revealing structural divergence driven by an asymmetric growth rate mismatch: tourism demand expands faster than transport supply capacity. These findings provide a pre-completion baseline for the corridor and highlight priorities for correcting subsystem imbalance, including strengthening external links in the central section, improving hub-to-scenic internal connectivity, and leveraging digital outreach to support demand monitoring and destination management. Full article

There has been substantial debate regarding the consequences of overtourism in cities. Scholars have also examined variables that are directly and indirectly related to tourism, including demography, urban rehabilitation and requalification, gentrification, speculation in the real estate market, the influence of digital booking platforms, and the expansion of short-term rental (STR) accommodation. This research seeks to develop a clearer spatial understanding of this last one. By analyzing their distribution, density (maximum occupancy), and clustering and by employing Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this article will propose methodologies to better visualize spatial patterns, providing different perspectives of the city of Lisbon and its most tourism-intensive parishes. The article finds that STRs in Lisbon have expanded rapidly, concentrating overwhelmingly in six historic parishes where STR supply and maximum occupancy now exceed resident populations and housing availability. GIS analysis reveals intense clustering in central neighborhoods—especially Alfama—indicating significant tourism pressure and signs of overtourism. These spatial patterns correlate with depopulation and rising housing costs. The study concludes that STR are now a decisive factor in urban imbalance and that detailed spatial analysis is essential for regulating tourism, defining carrying-capacity thresholds, and developing more sustainable, socially just urban planning policies. Full article

The rapid expansion of tourism in Bali and Lombok has precipitated a state of overtourism, critically challenging their ecological and socio-cultural carrying capacities. This study, conducted between 2023 and 2024, employs a qualitative case study approach to investigate the manifestations of overtourism and the efficacy of prevailing mitigation strategies. Data were collected through 32 in-depth interviews, four focus group discussions, and extensive field observations across key destinations in both islands. The findings reveal that overtourism is not merely a function of high visitor numbers but a symptom of systemic governance failure. Key manifestations include acute environmental degradation, the commodification of cultural heritage, and significant economic leakage that marginalizes local communities. These issues are exacerbated by fragmented policy, weak regulatory enforcement, and the exclusion of local voices from tourism planning. The study concludes that technical solutions such as visitor quotas are insufficient without a fundamental governance paradigm shift. Effective mitigation requires an integrated approach centered on strict carrying capacity enforcement, genuine community empowerment through Community-Based Tourism (CBT), and the strategic use of digital tools for visitor dispersion. This research provides an empirically grounded framework that underscores the imperative of a fundamental governance paradigm shift, aligning tourism development in island destinations with the principles of sustainability and equity. Full article

The safety of “City Walk” routes in high-density historic districts is a critical constraint for sustainable urban tourism. This study establishes an integrated safety assessment framework for Macao’s eight walking routes by coupling tourism attractiveness with spatial carrying capacity. Utilizing social media big data, multi-source spatial datasets and Spatial Lag Models, we conceptualize “attractions” and “streets” as a continuous system. The results reveal a spatial mismatch: while entertainment and green streetscapes drive attractiveness, excessive amenities in narrow alleys reduce perceived safety. A “crowded core–empty periphery” capacity pattern creates significant risks, with approximately 39% of nodes classified as medium-to-high risk due to high attractiveness overloading low carrying capacity. By diagnosing these “high-attractiveness, low-capacity” conflicts, this study demonstrates the effectiveness of multi-source data fusion in identifying resilience weaknesses, offering actionable insights for smart tourism management and the promotion of social sustainability in high-density destinations. Full article

The State of Alaska, USA, has a long and controversial history of controlling predators to enhance ungulate populations, including moose (Alces alces). Moose management is complicated by a dual system in which the Federal and State governments prioritize harvesting moose for human consumption over other considerations, such as trophy or sport hunting, but have conflicting regulations regarding who is eligible to harvest moose. Wildlife management for the State is overseen by the Alaska Board of Game (BOG), with advice from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG). In accordance with its Intensive Management Policy, the BOG establishes regulations promoting the harvest of moose and other ungulates for human consumption. This typically occurs by controlling bears (Ursus americanus and U. arctos) and gray wolves (Canis lupus) in anticipation of increasing ungulate harvests, often without adequate information on the status and ecology of predator or ungulate populations. We provide a narrative and integrative review of moose population dynamics to help resolve those issues. We argue that the current management of moose and their predators in Alaska does not encompass a full range of management options and fails to consider or implement important aspects of their population dynamics. Predators maintain some moose populations at a low density, reducing the harvest of moose but promoting large-antlered individuals, which are of value to Alaska’s professional guide and tourism industries. Using modern models of population dynamics of moose and other ungulates, we argue that if the proximity of the moose population to K (the ecological carrying capacity) is known, management strategies that increase the human harvest of moose and also promote large-antlered trophies are not mutually exclusive. We list life history and population characteristics to help determine the nutritional status of moose populations in relation to K, thereby guiding wise management of that valuable resource. We also recommend an adaptive management approach to assessing the effects of such activities. We caution, however, that to wisely manage these important wildlife resources, more information on the dynamics of moose and their predators is necessary. A system that embraces more biology and fewer politics would provide greater opportunities to employ the best science in the management of moose and their predators. Full article

To meet the development needs of high-rise timber structures, current cross-laminated timber (CLT) shear walls typically feature a single-layer thickness of 35 mm with more than three laminations in the stack. However, such thickness easily leads to resource waste in small-scale residential buildings, while increasing transportation and hoisting costs, which is not conducive to the prefabrication and lightweight development of timber structures. To adapt to the development trend of China’s timber structure market towards public buildings such as cultural and tourism projects and small-scale residential buildings including new rural housing renovation, this study focuses on thin CLT shear walls with an overall thickness of 48 mm (16 mm per layer) and conducts research on their lateral load-bearing performance. Monotonic lateral static load tests and finite element (FE) simulations were carried out on thin CLT shear walls without openings, with different opening areas, and with the same opening area but different positions. A corresponding FE model was established and validated, with a focus on analyzing the influence of opening parameters on the shear performance of the walls. The research results show that wall openings significantly reduce the bearing capacity and shear stiffness of the walls: compared with the wall without openings, the ultimate load and shear stiffness of the walls with openings decrease by 20.4–28.6% and 36.3–42.3%, respectively. Among them, increasing the opening height has a more obvious weakening effect on the bearing capacity; for the same opening area, a wider opening results in a more significant decrease in stiffness. The FE model exhibits reliable accuracy, with the error between the experimental and simulation results in the elastic stage controlled within 10%, and the influence of the under-wall support on the shear stiffness is relatively small. Opening parameters have a prominent impact on the stiffness of the wall in the elastic stage, and the influence of the opening position is more critical—the smaller the distance from the opening to the top of the wall, the more obvious the decrease in overall stiffness. Full article

The Tourism Area Life Cycle shaped tourism research for decades, but its concepts Product Life Cycle and Carrying Capacity remain problematic. We apply a Path Dependence frame under an Urban Growth Machine Theory lens to explore the effects of growth pressure and resource undersupply on the decline and rejuvenation of Japan’s former premier hot spring resort Atami. We conduct structured data collection utilizing sampling and coding methods to collect quantitative and qualitative data from primary and secondary sources, reconstructing Atami’s development paths. Findings suggest that growth pressure conflicted with local supply such as land, water, labor and created negative externalities, most notably high prices. Decision makers’ uncompromising focus on growth aggravated displacement of key actors, disrupting local communities and undermining the human agency needed for small-scale product innovation; empowered associations obstructing promotion and diversification efforts; encouraged extreme specialization depriving Atami of new independent businesses; and drove local opposition to major new projects, thereby stalling product renewal. The framework helped recontextualize Atami’s recovery and demonstrated the value of directly incorporating factors of capacity into analysis. Results link displacement to long-term sustainability risks affecting ‘replaceable’ resorts reliant on innovation. Unencumbered access to local resources for residents (housing, training) is proposed as mitigation. Full article

This article applies Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) to four Italian Alpine contexts to examine how narratives and metaphors can shape territorial development. We combined long-term ethnography (approximately 128 days of participant observation) with analysis of documents and media (2010–2025) relating to the four territories and interpreted the results through the four levels of CLA: litanies, systems, worldviews, and myths/metaphors. Two dominant metaphors, “mountain-as-playground” (exogenous) and “mountain-as-heritage” (endogenous), seem to underpin the discourses about tourism and local development. We identify signals of a third metaphor, the “open-hybrid-village”, where multiple forms of belonging and contribution (resident collective ownerships, returnees, extended stay visitors) sustain the local economy and stewardship. The approach is interpretative, and the transferability of results is limited by the selection of cases and the availability of data; however, triangulation and distinct levels support the internal consistency and replicability of the method in other contexts. We conclude that making imaginaries explicit can broaden the variety of thinkable futures and the space of options before investments become dependent on the path taken. We suggest integrating CLA into participatory foresight to enrich and share forward-looking visions on which to negotiate long-term landscape planning and thresholds for tourism carrying capacity. Full article

Cultural tourism has become an increasingly significant phenomenon in urban areas, especially in cities rich in heritage sites. However, when the number of visitors exceeds sustainable capacity thresholds, both the physical and psychological comfort and safety of individuals may be compromised. A higher number of visitors inside historic buildings leads to elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂), particularly in poorly ventilated enclosed or confined spaces, primarily as a result of human respiration. Such conditions not only accelerate the deterioration processes affecting heritage materials but also introduce potential health risks for visitors. Parameters such as CO₂ concentration, indoor air temperature, and relative humidity represent key measurable parameters for assessing environmental Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) within heritage buildings. Digital real-time monitoring of these parameters plays a crucial role in preventive heritage conservation, sustainable site management, and in ensuring visitors’ comfort and well-being. This paper presents a procedure and methodology that use digital technological tools to efficiently estimate and monitor the Visitor Carrying Capacity (VCC) of enclosed/confined heritage spaces, especially Heritage Building Information Modelling (HBIM) and Sensor Technology. These kinds of spaces require particular attention due to their spatial characteristics. In order to do so, it is necessary to know the geometry of the site, and to consider IAQ conditions. This study also considers the number of People at One Time (PAOT) and Visitor Occupancy (VO). The results focus on the procedural development of the analysis and emphasise the role of digital tools not only due to their efficiency and accuracy in spatial analysis for estimating VCC, but especially for the real-time monitoring of visitors and surveying specific environmental parameters. The experimental phase of this study uses the Chapel of the Holy Chalice of the Valencia Cathedral (Spain) as a pilot case. Monitoring this space reveals how quickly high CO₂ levels are reached with continuous visitor presence, and how long it takes for them to decay in absence of people and under passive ventilation conditions. The outcome of this research is a detailed methodological framework designed to assess and monitor Visitor Carrying Capacity (VCC) in enclosed/confined heritage sites by integrating digital technologies, thereby enhancing sustainable management, planning and decision-making processes. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive carrying capacity assessment for Gunung Gede Pangrango National Park (GGPNP), a key biodiversity hotspot in Java, Indonesia, integrating Physical Carrying Capacity (PCC), Real Carrying Capacity (RCC), and social-ecological correction factors. Using a PCC-RCC framework that combines GIS-based slope and land-cover analysis with an online visitor survey (camping n = 34; recreation n = 31) and 2020–2024 visitation statistics, we evaluated sustainable limits for hiking, camping, and recreation. Ecological and social constraints, primarily steep topography (>25% slope) and preferences for uncrowded conditions, reduce effective capacity by 96–99% from theoretical physical limits. The resulting daily RCC thresholds are 210–282 persons for hiking across three main trails, 131–204 for camping, and 803 for recreation, demonstrating that spatial availability is a poor predictor of sustainable capacity. Comparison with 2020–2024 visitation data reveals systemic overuse of the recreation zone on non-working days and pinpoints October as the most critical month. Given the park’s financial constraints, we recommend adopting dynamic visitor limits, developing a fee structure that reflects ecological value and demand, and diversifying revenue streams to mitigate degradation and ensure long-term financial and environmental sustainability. Full article